Yesterday GDP figures for the UK showed a better picture than many thought – this has helped GBPEUR rates hold steady at what is a near 3 month high. Again the reason why we are here is due to the Brexit campaign developments over the last 7 days, commentary from Barack Obama over the weekend and the steps forward to completing the largest trading block ever – between Europe and the US. Something that the UK would potentially miss out if the population vote to leave the EU in less than two months’ time. Profit was taken out of the market on Tuesday afternoon which was expected to have showed the peak, Again the GDP figures yesterday showing a better picture than expected has allowed the Pound to take back the losses and we stand at the top levels.
Moving forward eyes are now on the European Inflation data release tomorrow – Inflation has been falling in the Eurozone and another contraction is expected to be shown. As a result we could see rates pick up further for GBPEUR levels on Friday. However be very aware that Friday is the last trading day of April before the long bank holiday weekend, profit taking will also drive markets so there are no guarantees on the direction that we will see to end the week.
Generally there seems to be a view that rates moving forward will either pick up a little or drop a lot, the 2% gain seen over the last 7 days and nearly 5% in comparison to a month ago is quite an opportunity to miss out on. Especially when we take into account the longer term trends we have seen over the eight months which excluding the last 3 weeks has been clearly negative.
Sellers may want to wait as we are likely to see better levels for you towards the vote in 2 months time.
For live prices, forecasts and strategies please contact myself Steve Eakins at [email protected]