Referendum and Oil Causing CAD Volatility

Will Pound to Euro Rates Gain in September?

The bookies have cut the odds on a Leave victory in the Referendum after more polls point towards a potential Brexit. Like most major currencies, the CAD has been able to make major gains against Sterling of the back of the volatility. No doubt as we move close to the vote I would not be surprised to see GBP/CAD slip under the 1.80 mark.

Whilst the Referendum has caused plenty of volatility for the rate, CAD’s main influencer is the price of Oil. Canada’s main export is Brent Crude and after decade lows at the start of 2016 the price of Oil is increasing. Since the recent production outages in Canada, Nigeria and Libya the price of oil has found some gains, after the lows were mainly due to oversupply.

The price of oil has seemed to hit a resistance barrier around the $50 a barrel mark. Whilst rising above that level for a small period at the end of last week the price is back in the $40’s. There is a viscous cycle taking place in oil as the profits rise so does the production levels. Some of the wells that were taken offline are being reopened as the opportunity to make up some of the lost profits is captured. Evidently though as production is increased the value of oil will decrease as the oversupply is only made worse. If you are happy with the current level of GBP/CAD I suggest acting rather than waiting because the situation with the Referendum and Oil could quickly change meaning you miss out on the rate.

If you are looking to complete a CAD exchange I would be more than happy to help you achieve the best window of opportunity. I have access to some of the best rates exchange rates through a currency brokerage so could help you optimise your transaction. Please feel free to send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk