As we enter the new year the pound’s value is likely to be driven by the supreme court’s ruling which is likely to surface around the middle of this month.
The supreme court will rule on whether Theresa May, the UK prime minister can invoke Article 50 without consulting parliament. As it stands Theresa May plans on invoking Article 50 in order to initiate the Brexit process at the end of March, and she’s scheduled to give a speech over the next few weeks in order to outline the governments approach to it’s Brexit plans.
I believe that if the government is unsuccessful in it’s appeal, meaning that May will need to consult parliament on when to begin the Brexit process, we can expect to see the Pound rally as the Brexit is likely to be delayed and a more drawn out process.
On the other hand if the government is successful meaning the Brexit process could begin as soon as March, I’m expecting to see the pound fall as are many others within the financial services sector.
Outside of this key market mover, economic data is likely to be watched closely as was the case for much of last year as investors are keen to monitor the UK’s economic performance since the Brexit vote and as we approach the beginning of the process. This morning will see the release of Construction PMI, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals which will give us a good idea of economic health within the UK at present.
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