GBP/EUR What factors will effect my Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Euro Rate: GBP Falls on Virus Fears and Manufacturing Data as EUR Rallies

Brexit

The very brief exit bill that was presented to the House of Commons by Theresa May has now been passed and has now been handed to the House of Lords. Personally, I do not think there will be any serious resistance to the bill going through the House of Lords although there are some key topics to be discussed. There will be two days of debate commencing on 20th February. I have listed the the most probable amendments to the bill below.

  • Parliament must be updated frequently on the progress of trade negotiations. At least once every three months.
  • A guarantee that three million EU citizens in the UK will have their rights protected following the triggering of Article 50.
  • Parliament must be given the opportunity to vote on the PM’s final exit deal.

If any amendments are made to the bill there is the possibility that Theresa May invoking article 50 could be delayed passed the March 30th target. If this is the case I would expect Sterling to weaken.

General Elections in the Euro Zone have potential to weaken the Euro

Political uncertainty, historically weakens the currency in question. There are general election in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year. Each election has the possibility that a far right party may gain power. If a far right party gains power in any of these elections there is the strong possibility of a referendum and the Euro could suffer heavily.

In France, Marine Le Pen is gaining popularity at present as Francois Fillon has been accused of paying his wife an extortionate salary for a role she has not been actively working in.  Tax payers are not happy. Le Pen gaining power does now not seem so far fetched.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I am prepared to perform a comparison against your current provider, I am confident in making you a significant saving and I will also provide a free trading strategy. I can be contacted at [email protected]. Thank you for reading.