Is the Canadian dollar overvalued against sterling? (Dayle Littlejohn)

When studying the Canadian dollar vs Sterling exchange rates, the two main factors that have dictated exchange rate fluctuations throughout the last 12 months have been oil prices and Brexit.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a group that aim to unify petroleum polices and secure fair and stable prices, ruled last year that all of the countries involved would cut oil production in a bid to stop flooding the market which in turn would raise the price of a barrel of oil. Canada heavily relies on oil prices as oil is Canada’s largest export.

Oil prices held steady around $54 per barrel in February and declined throughout March, due to rumbles that some of the countries were not keeping to the production limits. However over the last two weeks oil has been on the rise and is fluctuation above $50 dollars per barrel. This could be a contributing factor to why GBPCAD exchange rates fell from 1.68s to 1.65s towards the end of last month. Personally I think it’s a matter of  time until oil prices fall again due to countries not sticking to the cut limits.

Now that UK Prime Minister has triggered Article 50, the UK will begin the early negotiations. It has been reported the first topic will be how much the UK needs to pay the EU as a divorce settlement however I believe it’s in the best interest of both parties to come to reasonable figure and therefore I don’t see this is a sterling negative event.

Therefore short term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPCAD exchange rates back towards 1.70 and beyond.   

If you are buying or selling Canadian dollars this week, month or year and I haven’t covered your currency pair I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (CADUSD, CADGBP, CADAUD) and the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and I will response with my forecast and the options available to you [email protected]. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **