GBP/EUR, Calm Before the Storm? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate hardly moved half a cent across the whole of the day with very little changing in the market. Until the drop on Friday due to poor economic data for the UK, the rate had spent most of the week hovering around the 1.14 mark. This morning the rate is back above 1.13 and in my opinion there could be a opportunity for the rate to lift a little today.

MPC Members Speak Today

Two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members will speak today Andy Haldane and Dr Ben Broadbent. The MPC are thought to be investigating whether a interest rate hike would be beneficial for the UK in the short term future. The two committee members who vote with the other 7 will provide their insights, if they’re hawkish and suggest a hike may happen that could provide market optimism boosting Sterling. Alternatively Andy Haldane is returning for his second stint on the MPC and was previously known for his Dovish attitude. There is of course every chance this is a non-event, but with little positivity around for Sterling any spikes in the market should be capitalised on.

In my opinion over the course of the next few weeks the GBP/EUR rate may move back towards the 1.14 but I find it hard to see anything much more substantial happening. The second round of Brexit talks will begin next week and we may get some further updates into how they’re progressing. However Theresa May is coming under so much pressure in the UK, even as much so that MP’s are calling for her resignation. If May was to resign then another general election would only add to further uncertainty and the GBP/EUR rate may drop below 1.10.

If you would like to ask me any further questions with regards to my forecast, please feel free to send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to achieve, I will respond within a few hours. Hopefully I can assist with devising a strategy to help you achieve your goal and potentially help execute the trade.