Today has seen the GBP/EUR rate fall to the lowest level in 8 years, taking us back to just after the financial crisis. This was mainly down to the record breaking Purchasing Managers Index in data coupled with the Eurozone’s reading. What is becoming apparent is there is considerable optimism for the Euro and investors are investing their funds aggressively in the single market currency.
Working for the brokerage Foreign Currency Direct, many of my clients will ask if the rate is going to continue to fall and in short I believe the answer is yes. There has been a major downward trend for the GBP/EUR rate over the past month and whilst I think parity is unlikely there could be a few more cents to drop.
Mario Draghi who is the President of the European Central Bank will speak on Friday and could well be set to acknowledge the Euros strength. If he then goes on to suggest the current quantitative easing measures in the Eurozone could be reduced, there could be major optimism for the Euro.
The one risk to all this Euro strength is that it could have a longer term effect on the EU economy. If the GBP/EUR rate does remain at this level then the amount of Brits going to Europe next year will decrease, there will be significantly less tourism whilst there could be a influx of tourists to the UK boosting the economy. Some of these consequences could eventually be felt by the Eurozone and the ECB might be wary to try and reduce the Euro strength.
If you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at [email protected]
