NAFTA collapse a possibility
There are worries for the Canadian Dollar at present caused by the potential for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to disintegrate.
President Trump has stated that there is the possibility the US could drop out of the trade deal if there is not agreement in hard-line proposals on Canada and Mexico. If Trump is serious about the threat and follows through with it this has the potential to severely weaken the Canadian dollar as the US is Canada’s primary trade partner.
This has outweighed a catalyst for Canadian dollar strength, a rise in oil price. There is currently conflict in the oil rich region of Kirkuk between Kurdish and Iraqi forces which has put concerns over oil production in the area. The potential fall in supply has caused oil price to rise which is Canada’s main export. It is worth keeping an eye on developments as this could influence CAD value.
Retail Sales & CPI data could cause movement in CAD value
Canadian retails sales data is released on Friday. It displays the all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retails stores of different sizes. This can influence exchange rates, but on this occasion, I think it may be a non-event as I do not predict much movement from the previous month.
Retails sales data is followed by Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a measure of price movements by the comparison of between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of services and goods. It is a measure of inflation and is one of the key releases that can determine monetary policy. I think the situation in Kirkuk could cause a slight rise in inflation although due to Trump NAFTA threats Canadian dollar gains could be limited.
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