Sterling Forecast – What can Those Clients Holding the Pound Expect for 2018? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has found some support during Monday’s trading, gaining market position against the EUR, hitting 1.1344 at today’s high.

This positive spike came about, despite come impressive economic data emanating from the Eurozone. Industrial Confidence and Retail Sales figures both came out above market expectation but did little to boost support for the single currency.

As we look forward in 2018, those clients holding Sterling will be questioning how the Pound will fare over the coming months.

Sterling found life tough going for much of last year, as stagnant Brexit negotiations and a divided government handicapped any major advances.

Investor confidence in the UK economy evaporated as quickly as its growth forecasts shrank, whilst many analysts were predicting a fall towards parity against the EUR and below 1.20 against the USD.

However, as is often the case with the currency markets, conditions altered and market perception improved slightly as 2017 came towards a close.

The Pound has found some much needed support over recent weeks, as a breakthrough in Brexit talks helped to alleviate some of the pressure on the UK economy. Whilst there are still many unanswered questions in terms of how the UK economy will look following out separation from the EU, the outlook is slightly more positive as we head into the first quarter of this year.

This new found optimism has been supported by some strong Manufacturing & Services data (these account for a large portion of the UK’s economic output), and the hope now is that the Pound has at least found a stronger foothold against the other major currencies.

Despite this slight upturn, I still feel that sterling will struggle to make an aggressive impact against the EUR or USD this year, with investors remaining sceptical regarding how the next phase of Brexit talks will progress.

This is likely due to how tough the next round of Brexit talks are predicted to be and the potential obstacles that could scupper any deal being agreed. We are now entering a phase, where the key points of the UK’s separation from the EU will be discussed. These include the relationships that will remain with our closest neighbours, particularly in terms of what trade deal the UK will be granted upon its exit.

As a result we are likely to see tensions rise and I would be surprised if this didn’t have a negative impact on Sterling’s value over the coming months. The first round of negotiations were far more tedious than most experts had predicted and it does make you wonder how the UK government will navigate the second phase of talks.

A close and open trade deal is key for the UK’s economic well-being and ultimately Sterling’s value over the coming months.

With years of potential prosperity hinging on the outcome of these talks, it is clear that Brexit and its final outcome is going to drive market sentiment and ultimately Sterling’s value through 2018 and even beyond.

Brexit has been and will be the driving force behind investor confidence in the UK and ultimately the Pound, so any improvements or downturn in talks is likely to have a significant impact on Sterling’s value over the coming weeks & months.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.