EU Parliament may provide the UK with privileged single market access following Brexit

The Pound Continues Its Fightback

Business Insider Report suggests there will be Single Market access for Britain

A recent report has stated that EU parliament is currently compiling a detailed resolution to call for more flexibility in relationship talks with the UK. The EU would like to put forward and negotiate an association agreement which would give Britain privileged market access and EU agency membership.

I am not a 100% on the legitimacy of this report as the market moves on rumour as well as fact and investors are yet to bite or possibly it is not common knowledge. If investors had bitten I would have expected substantial Sterling strength, possibly even breaking the current 1.15 mark on GBP/EUR. If the release does take place this weekend GBP/EUR could be in a very different position on Monday.

This would be a huge change in stance for Chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier who has put forward a proposal similar to that of Canada’s free trade agreement.

It is uncertain how this would pan out however, considering that the Conservatives wish to be free of all European laws following Brexit.

Inflation and Average Wage Growth concerns

Average Wage Growth came in yesterday and it remained anchored at 1.5%. In order to have a healthy economy inflation and wage growth should be close to parity. This is far from the case at present. Despite this there is an 80% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) in May.

Personally I feel this would be the wrong move considering the fragility of the UK economy at present. Be aware, there is the strong possibility that a rate hike in May is already factored into current market levels. If this is the case do not expect significant Sterling strength should the hike take place. The danger is if it does not occur, I would expect heavy falls in Sterling value if this is the outcome.

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