UK Inflation data causes the Pound to fall against the Euro (Tom Holian)

GBP EUR Looks to Employment Figures for Support

The Pound has fallen against the Euro since the start of the week which has surprised some analysts after UK inflation data came out higher than expected at 3% in January.

The expectation was for 2.9% for last month so the rise in theory should have strengthened the Pound as it provides further support for an interest rate hike for the UK, which at the moment is 75% priced in for May.

However, one of the key concerns for the UK is that with signs that economic growth may not be as positive as recently suggested this could mean that an interest rate hike may not be coming as soon as some may think.

Looking closer at the inflation figures we have seen oil prices fall since the beginning of the year and as many goods were priced last year when we saw a drop in the value of Sterling this period may be coming to an end so we should expect inflation to start falling soon.

The over-riding factor for the UK is currently the uncertainty surrounding what is currently happening with the topic of Brexit and with phase 2 of the negotiations due to start in March this could cause a lot of volatility for Sterling exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

Tomorrow morning German inflation data is due out as well as Eurozone GDP so expect to see quite a lot of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates in the morning.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the near future then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on [email protected] and I will respond to you as soon as I can.