The week ahead for exchange rates

Currency Exchange - Events for the week ahead

Last week we had a busy week of data and speeches with the ECB interest rate decision and following speech from Mario Draghi, Nonfarm payroll data from the US on Friday afternoon and the RBA interest rate decision at the beginning of the week.

President Trump spoke on Thursday evening and confirmed that he would be putting his proposed trade tariffs in place within the next 15 days, with the exception of Canada and Mexico until the NAFTA agreement can be renegotiated. This has the potential to start a ‘trade war’, which the US Dollar stands to benefit from this as investors tend to send funds to the safe haven currency during times of global uncertainty.

The Pound continues to be affected by Brexit negotiations, with US bank Goldman Sachs putting plans in place to move teams working on German accounts to Frankfurt. This could cause further difficulty for Sterling exchange rates if other financial institutions decide to follow suit.

This week we have the budget report from the UK on Tuesday, as well as Consumer Price Index data from the US and a speech from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. On Thursday the Swiss National Bank will release their latest interest rate decision, and to finish the week on Friday we have Consumer Price Index data from the EU.

As all readers are more than likely aware, this market is a strange one and still extremely politically driven, so do be wary of any movements regarding Brexit talks that may also impact the Pound at any time.

Below we have detailed some of the key data releases and events so you can keep an eye out for them.

Monday (today)

  • 18:00 – US | Monthly Budget Statement (Feb) (USD)

Tuesday

  • 00:30 – Australia | Home Loans (Jan) (AUD)
  • 00:30 – Australia | Investment Lending for Homes (Jan) (AUD)
  • 11:30 – UK | Budget Report (GBP)
  • 12:30 – US | Consumer Price Index (Feb) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (Feb) (USD)
  • 14:30 – Canada | BoC Governor Poloz Speech (CAD)
  • 22:10 – Australia | RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech (AUD)
  • 23:30 – Australia | Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mar) (AUD)

Wednesday

  • 07:00 – Germany | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Feb) (EUR)
  • 10:00 – EU | Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan) (EUR)
  • 12:30 – US | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Retail Sales control group (Mar) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Mar) (USD)
  • 21:45 – New Zealand | Gross Domestic Product (Q4) (NZD)

Thursday

  • 24h – EU | EcoFin Meeting (EUR)
  • 00:00 – Australia | Consumer Inflation Expectation (Mar) (AUD)
  • 00:30 – Australia | RBA Bulletin (AUD)
  • 07:45 – EU | Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) (Feb) (EUR)
  • 08:30 – Switzerland | SNB Quarterly Bulletin
  • 08:30 – Switzerland | SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • 12:30 – US | Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar 2)
  • 12:30 – US | Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 9) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Mar) (USD)
  • 14:00 – US | NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) (USD)
  • 21:30 – New Zealand | Business NZ PMI (Mar) (NZD)
  • 22:45 – Australia | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech (AUD)

Friday

  • 07:00 – Germany Wholesale Price Index (Feb) (EUR)
  • 10:00 – EU | Labour cost (Q4) (EUR)
  • 10:00 – EU | Consumer Price Index – Core (Feb) (EUR)
  • 10:00 – EU | Consumer Price Index (Feb) (EUR)
  • 12:30 – US | Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Building Permits (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
  • 12:30 – US | Housing Starts Change (Feb) (USD)
  • 13:15 – US | Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) (USD)
  • 13:15 – US | Capacity Utilization (Feb) (USD)
  • 17:00 – US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count (USD)

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