The pound to Euro rate had been expected to keep rising in the face of the expected improvements from the market in terms of higher interest rates and also possibly the improved outlook on Brexit but mostly we would be expecting the pound to struggle to rise again to hit the 1.15 mark. The most important factor driving the pound has of course been the Brexit and also the prospect of higher interest rates.
Much of this news does appear to be largely priced into current levels already, however. This is evidenced by the spike that we saw once the Bank of England met at their last meeting and the fact that we have not retouched that level. The general progression on the pound against the Euro is expected longer term but in order to see this occur, we will need to really see some fresh good news.
Markets will need new information to go off to be able to make an informed decision about what really lies ahead. For now, there is likely to be increased uncertainty surrounding Brexit in the coming weeks as we await further news on a trade deal and also the Irish border. In the absence of any new news, the pound will more than likely struggle to maintain higher levels.
The same is true of interest rates which are likely to rise in the future but much of the good news is priced in, further GBP strength will rely on there being new news, which helps the market to pencil in the possibility of further hikes after May. With the poor weather in March weighing on market sentiments I think the Bank of England will be cautious about further hikes which could see the pound remain flat or struggle to rise much further.
If you are buying or selling Euros then making plans in advance around the transfer is the best way to maximise the possibility of getting the best rates. We can help with your plans and look to offer practical assistance with the timing and execution of any transactions. For more information free of charge and at completely no obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected].
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