The Swiss economy stabilised during April, curbing any further downturn after March’s dip.
The CHF itself has remained fairly stable throughout and continues to trade around 1.3550 against Sterling.
Despite an upturn in economic output the Swiss National Bank (SNB) still feel the CHF is overvalued and as such restricting Swiss exports.
This in turn is putting unnecessary strain on their economy and with the SNB keen to see the CHF’s value dip, do not be surprised if the CHF’s value starts to fall over the coming weeks.
This could be one of the reasons the Pound has managed to hold its position against the CHF this week, despite seeing heavy losses against almost every other major currency.
The Pound is under a huge amount of pressure this week, following poor Manufacturing data. This downturn for Sterling was a continuation of Friday’s losses, with poor UK Gross Domestic product (GDP) figures sapping investor confidence and dampening the markets expectations, regarding a rate rise by the Bank of England (BoE) at their policy meeting next Thursday.
It is now extremely unlikely that the BoE will raise rates next week in my opinion, with the 0.25% rise likely to be pushed back until further data is analysed over the coming weeks. However, even a strong run of data over the coming weeks may not be enough, with early reports suggesting a rate rise may now be off the table until at least the last quarter of this year.
Despite this negative feeling the CHF has yet to make inroads, likely due to the SNB’s positon and as such CHF sellers may be left disappointed if they are holding out for any short-term gains.
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