Sterling 3 month forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBP/EUR exchange rates creep up over the course of the trading week

Most people that have stumbled across this article are looking for information in regards to sterling exchange rates, as they have a currency transfer to make in the foreseeable future. If you fall into this bracket I would recommend that you outline your exact requirements via email, so I can outline your options and offer assistance in regards to saving money through exchange rates [email protected]

The pound has had a tough time over the last month, due to poor UK economic data which stopped the Bank of England raising interest rates. As interest rates were kept on hold, currency investors sold off the pound and purchased other currencies elsewhere for higher returns. Due to there being less demand for the pound, this is why the pound has lost value.

Looking ahead to the next 3 months the two key subjects which will impact the value of sterling is the Brexit negotiations and UK economic data.

In regards to Brexit UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she will release a 129 page white paper outlining the UK’s position before the EU summit which is set to be held towards the end of June. The problem the PM has is that her party cant come to an agreement in regards to the Irish border or customs union and this will continue to be debated in the weeks to come. The recent commentary is that the UK and EU have both agreed that they do no want infrastructure on the border therefore Brussels are offering that Northern Ireland stay part of the customs union and single market. The only problem with this idea is that if the PM agreed she would be splitting up the UK.

The UK and EU need to come to an agreement by October, therefore I believe both parties will continue to drag their feet and therefore this will put pressure on the pound. Consequently I believe the Brexit negotiations for the next 3 months will put pressure on the pound and buying foreign currency could become more expensive. 

Arguably some of the poor UK economic data over the last month can be put down to bad weather. Therefore I actually expect data releases like retail sales to pick up over the upcoming months. However the key quarterly reports are not due until the middle of the summer, therefore I expect UK economic data to provide opportunities but I don’t expect a positive trend over the next 3 months. I actually believe that the Bank of England will reignite the hype of an interest rate hike at the back end of the summer once the Governor knows more in regards to Brexit and the second quarterly figures have been released.

Its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company [email protected].

** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING  **