GBP/EUR – The fragility of the pound is currently being demonstrated as political uncertainty and a host of poor data releases weigh down Sterling. We have had poor inflation, poor retail sales and GDP arrived at 0.1%, the lowest figures in five years. The highly anticipated rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May now seems off the cards with little justification to do so other than unemployment hitting a 43 yr low. This however may not be so impressive, with many on zero hour contracts, not the most stable form of employment.
Political uncertainty has been another catalyst for Sterling’s fall. Theresa May is facing criticism for her stance on access to the customs union following Brexit. Keep an eye on developments as they will influence GBP/EUR.
If you have a Euro requirement short term move if the market hits the 1.14s.
Euro sellers – short term you could see gains, but be wary of holding on for too long with high expectations as Sterling is chronically undervalued. Clarity on Brexit will cause the Pound to rally.
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