We have a fairly busy trading week ahead for GBP/USD exchange rates, on top of the political and economic developments from president Trump we also have a number of key economic data releases too.
Trade war concerns still continue to be rife around the markets as Donald Trump is still happy to throw his weight around, most recently taking a swipe at the European motor market and pledging a 20% tax on European cars.
His latest move is another attempt to bolster the U.S economy and to keep things ‘in house’ however should we see other areas around the world push back and add their own tariffs on American imports then we may see the Dollar get a little shaky.
There are fears of full on global trade wars at present and any developments from around the globe will lead to GBP/USD volatility.
Tomorrow is fairly quiet for data, with a few members of the Bank of England speaking in the morning, a few members of the Federal Reserve speaking in the afternoon and minimal economic data on top of this.
Wednesday morning we have Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaking at 09:30am along with the U.K financial stability report. Should Carney discuss interest rates as a follow up from last weeks BOE interest rate vote then we may see an uplift in the value of the Pound.
Later on Wednesday afternoon U.S Durable Goods orders and Pending Home Sales will be the most important releases, will the U.S economy continue its fantastic run of form?
Thursday is quiet for U.K economic data but very important for U.S data. On Thursday afternoon we have jobless claims data, Growth figures, Personal Consumption figures and a few members of the Federal Reserve due to speak, all in all a potentially volatile afternoon. My personal opinion is that U.S data will remain strong and we could see further USD strength on Thursday.
Friday morning we are back focusing on the U.K once again, with U.K growth figures and mortgage approval data. As we progress to the afternoon the U.K data dry’s up and all eyes head towards U.S inflation and personal spending figures to round off the week.
I feel that this week will see some good movements for GBP/USD and the key will be catching the spikes as and when they occur, I feel that we are now nailed on for an interest rate hike in August and a nod to that from Mark Carney may give the Pound a boost. Equally U.S data is strong and I would expect that to continue so any Sterling gains earlier in the week may likely be knocked back as the week progresses.
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