GBP/EUR – Sterling remains weak and it is the same old story. Brexit uncertainty. Top of the agenda is the Irish border deal, which is proving to be a point of contention. There seems to be little progress and talks could be elongated. There has been attempts to put a back stop plan in place, but even this is proving troublesome.
Ideally the UK government would like to have a back stop deal ready for the EU summit due to commence on 28th June. I am of the opinion bar unforeseen circumstances in order for GBP/EUR to exceed 1.16 there needs to be major progress in Brexit. GBP/EUR has been range bound between 1.12-1.1599 for over 12 months. 1.15 seems to be a point of resistance with anything above 1.15 only available for small windows of opportunity.
Yesterday we saw the release of UK manufacturing data came in down 1.4%, the largest fall since October 2012. Trade balance data showed a widening deficit which was another negative factor. GDP was up from 0.1% to 0.2%, but this was still below expectations of 0.3%.
There are still rumours of a possible rate hike this year from the Bank of England (BOE), but in this climate I find little justification to do so.
There is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and it is anticipated that there will an announcement on a cut in Quantitative Easing (QE) or indeed that t could be cut completely. I am not so convinced, but this is definitely on the cards and if it does not happen now it could happen later in the year. This has the potential to cause substantial Euro strength.
If you are buying Euros short term I would not be aiming for much higher than 1.1430.
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