The Pound has recovered some ground against a number of commodity currencies this week, including the Aussie Dollar as these types of currencies are coming pressure.
The weakness is due to contagion fears as Turkey has been in the headlines since late last week as there are concerns the country could default. A row between Turkey and the US has broken out recently, as Trump believes that the detention of Andrew Brunson, an Evangelical pastor from North Carolina is unjust and Trump is demanding his release.
Owing to Turkey’s stance on this the US has implemented sanctions on Turkey which has seen a dramatic sell-off in the Turkish Lira. At one stage this week the currency had lost around 50% of its value vs the US Dollar just this year. The sell-off has affected other currencies which isn’t unusual, and the Aussie Dollar along with other riskier currencies have all seen their currencies lose some value along with Euro.
Fears surrounding the Pound selling off have eased owing to this. Although the Pound is struggling against the US Dollar it’s actually gained 3-cents vs the Aussie Dollar after bouncing off of a low of 1.73. Sterling has been dropping daily after the realities of a ‘No deal Brexit’ surfaced recently. How Sterling performed going into 2019 is likely to be driven by Brexit updates. Just this month the Bank of England opted to hike interest rates, and this has done little to boost the Pound’s value which is a sign of the pressures Brexit is applying to the Pound’s value.
The Aussie Dollar has fallen to an 18-month low against the US Dollar this week, and whilst Turkey is far from Australia’s biggest trading partner, there are a number of Australian energy, minerals, construction and agribusiness companies that have invested there and will now be nervous.
A slowdown in global trade due to fears surrounding Turkey and it’s ability to pay back interest on borrowed money could also weigh on the Aussie Dollar’s value.
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