September GBPEUR Forecast

GBP/EUR jumps - Is a Brexit deal on the horizon?

Will September hold some new direction on GBPEUR?

September contains some key pieces of news to drive GBPEUR exchange rates including two Central Bank meetings on Thursday 13th, plus the potential for some detail on Brexit. With Brexit acting as the biggest driver on the pair, the potential for some new news and direction could provide some volatility on GBPEUR rates.

The end of August has seen the Pound lose ground to its lowest point of 2018, touching 1.0990 this week, only for some comments by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator on Brexit to trigger a spike. The comments seemed to suggest the UK might enjoy some kind of special deal and helped GBPEUR to hit 1.1160, a 2-week high at the time of writing.

Brexit news will remain the focus

The Pound to Euro rate should remain very sensitive to the latest news on Brexit and react to any headlines, just like it has for the last two years. There are now some important political events which might see some twists and turns on Brexit to trigger some movements.

These are the returning of MP’s on September 4th, following the summer recess. Theresa May was in a rather precarious position following her Chequers plans last month. Will this lead to any further plots or plans to oust her? September 30th could provide some interesting twists for the UK and Brexit with the latest Conservative Party Conference.

Economic news will also be key

The pound to Euro exchange rate could see a very busy day on Thursday 13th with the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and also the Bank of England (BoE) meeting as well. This could be a choppy time on the exchange rate and movement of a cent or two cannot be ruled out.

Often when you have these meetings there can be a sudden change in the market that will present a very short-term opportunity. To take advantage of any spikes it pays to be prepared. If you have a currency requirement and wish to be kept updated, please do let me know by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.