So far we have had a reasonably good week for sterling exchange rates against the euro, with the pound gaining ground almost daily.
There is no doubt that we are entering an extremely important period for the U.K and this will have an impact on the value on the pound, depending on the outcome of Brexit negotiations. There will be twists and turns in this saga in the weeks ahead. If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange in the coming months, then keep a keen eye on exchange rates. There is a high expectation of volatility in the near future for the pound against all majors.
The key thing that investors are trying to second guess is the likelihood of a Brexit deal being struck. Almost daily the sentiment seems to be swinging from one side to the other. A ‘No Deal’ Scenario is generally seen as negative for the pound at present and any sign of positive news towards a deal being agreed has been giving sterling strength.
The key dates ahead for your diary are as follows;
September 30th – October 3rd Conservative party conference – This is one to approach with caution as it has been well publicised that there are a number of the Conservative party that are not completely happy with current Brexit plans. Should there be problems at this conference that cause trouble for Theresa May and therefore political uncertainty in the UK, we could see sterling weaken off in the first half of next week.
October 18th – October 19th EU Summit – This had been originally pencilled in for when a deal had hoped to be done, however it does appear that we may see this now moved into November due to the complications that we have witnessed in recent negotiations.
Mid November – Emergency EU Summit – Realistically this is more than likely when we will hear if a deal is in place. From now until this summit I would expect an extremely volatile pound, if you are of a cautious nature the sensible approach may be to lock something in sooner rather than later to avoid a potentially stressful period.
As this market is so politically focused it’s extremely tough to know how this will all pan out, unfortunately most of the discussions are behind closed doors and the second an announcement or comment is released the market will react accordingly.
I welcome any enquiries you have about the above factors, or about an upcoming transfer in general. Use the form below and I will get in touch personally to discuss a plan of action for your upcoming currency exchange.