This was always billed as a key period for sterling exchange rates and so it has proved. The GBPUSD rate has been very volatile with almost 6 cents movement since the end of August between the high and the low on the pairing. There are numerous events taking place at present which are giving the market the fuel it needs for the volatility, including Brexit and the ongoing trade wars.
A key driver is of course the EU Summit and the market’s reactions to the flow of news relating to what type of Brexit the UK is headed for. Personally, I do feel the likelihood is that ultimately a deal will be reached but that it might take a lot longer to reach agreement.
Some are mooting November or even December as a more likely time when we will see some important news released. The deadlock mainly centres around Ireland and just how the border between the North and the South will be managed.
The EU Summit is this week, on the 18th and promises to hold all sorts of information in store for clients tracking GBPUSD rates. For me, there does now appear an increasing likelihood that sterling will dip and lose value, as the market loses patience.
The GBPUSD exchange rate could well retrace the steps that took it back down to the 1.26’s back in September when a no-deal scenario looked likely.
Other news this week to move the market includes the latest UK Unemployment data this morning and then Inflation data tomorrow, two data sets which are used by investors to gauge the health of the UK economy.
All in all, sterling seems most likely to be driven by sentiments over Brexit. The good news for US dollar buyers is the US dollar is slightly weaker lately as concerns mount over the strength and direction of the US economy.
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