GBP/EUR Forecast – Are the UK & EU Getting Closer to an Agreement over the Irish Border?

Sterling Forecast: Pound rises as Theresa May enters her possible breakthrough day

The pound has seen its value increase slightly against EUR over the past couple of days, hitting a high of 1.1293 this morning.

This improvement is somewhat surprising, as there was a feeling that we could see the pound’s value slip in line with the Conservative Party Conference which finished yesterday.

Whilst there were jibes directed at Prime Minister Theresa May, her closing speech yesterday was generally well received. She remained bullish in her quest to achieve the “best deal possible” for the UK. It was interesting to note that she did not mention the word ‘Chequers’ throughout the entirety of her speech. Whether this is indicative of any changes to the original Brexit plan or just a PR exercise is difficult to dissect, but it certainly did not do any harm to sterling’s value, which steadily increased yesterday.

There have also been reports that a compromise on the Irish border may be within reach. This, and the surprisingly subdued tone at the Tory Conference has helped to alleviate some pressure on the pound.

Clients with a GBP/EUR requirement may look at the current spike as another opportunity and based on recent history, there is certainly no guarantees that the current trend will continue.

Whilst much of the media’s focus is currently centred on Brexit and how talks are ultimately progressing, the spotlight has also turned back towards Italy over recent days. With their latest budget plans under scrutiny and their 2.4% target deficit unlikely to impress Brussels, the EUR could also see a sell-off if this situation escalates further over the coming days.

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