Considering the current state of Brexit negotiations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD fall below 1.80s in the upcoming weeks. A Government watchdog this morning has warned that the UK will pay the price if the UK fail to secure a deal, and to expect queues and delays at the borders, as the UK are not prepared for a no deal Brexit.
At the moment the UK Government are suggesting that 95% of the Brexit deal is agreed, however the Irish border remains the sticking point and that’s been the problem for the last 2 years. Reports are suggesting that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed to the whole of the UK remaining part of a ‘customs arrangement’ after the transitional period, however the EU want the UK to agree to Northern Ireland remaining part of the customs union if the UK do not secure a deal by the time the customs arrangement ends.
Time is running out for the Prime Minister and by the day more reports are being released suggesting a vote of no confidence is just around the corner. Personally I dont see this materialising. There are no MPs out there in my opinion that will stand against the PM and win, and at the same time get the backing from the full Conservative Party. Therefore the likelihood of a General Election is extremely high if a vote of no confidence occurs.
With all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit I’m not surprised GBPAUD exchange rates have fallen, and think they have scope to fall further in the upcoming weeks. For people emigrating back to Australia or people looking to repatriate funds back to sterling, the next 8 weeks are going to have a major impact on the rates you secure. There are many contract options that can protect your position, but ultimately it will all come down to whether or not a deal will be secured.
My personal opinion is that we will see 1.90 by the end of the year, as a result of the potentially fudged Brexit deal on the horizon. If you’d like to discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations and how they could impact your AUD currency transfer feel free to use the form below to request further information, I’ll be happy to respond personally.