UK Prime Minister, Theresa May lost a second vote on her Brexit deal last night, despite getting more support for the deal this time around. Previously she lost by a record margin of 230 votes in January, and yesterday she failed to gain the support of hard line Brexiteers and the DUP Party of Northern Ireland which props up her Government.
GBP exchange rates are having a busy week across the board, as the markets continue to digest the updates and also attempt to second guess the next key Brexit update.
Further Brexit votes expected this week
Now that the deal has been rejected for a second time, there will be a vote today on whether MPs would accept a no-deal Brexit. This is now likely to be the main mover of GBP to CAD exchange rates for the day, as Brexit updates remain the key driver of GBP value. If a no-deal Brexit is rejected a vote tomorrow will take place regarding an extension to the due date for Brexit. So the busy week is far from over in my opinion.
Will Sterling rise?
Sterling has started the day well after selling off quite sharply yesterday when Attorney General Geoffrey Cox suggested the legal assurances secured by PM May were not enough to stop the UK potentially being tied to the EU indefinitely. There was a further sell-off when the vote went against May although much of the damage had been done by then.
Perhaps Sterling is climbing this morning as the markets expect an extension to Article 50 to take place, or even another referendum on Brexit,, due to the UK Government failing to come up with a plan they all agree on.
CAD value influenced by oil prices
The Canadian Dollar has been influenced this week by comments from the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih suggesting that an end to supply cuts is unlikely to take place before June. I still expect UK politics to remain the main driver of value between GBP/CAD but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the oil price fluctuations can impact CAD value.
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