Pound vs euro forecast: Theresa May confirms meaningful vote will go ahead

GBPEUR Still Supported by 1.15 After German Data

The UK Government has confirmed that the meaningful vote will go ahead tomorrow, despite fears that more than 100 MPs could again vote against the Prime Minister’s deal.

There had been rumors that Theresa May would replace the meaningful vote with a conditional motion that would outline acceptable terms to deal with the Irish backstop. However, this was fiercely opposed by Remainers who expected that the Prime Minister would lose the support of the House of Commons if she didn’t honour the vote.

Tomorrow’s vote will be closely followed by another on Wednesday, when MPs will vote on whether to remove the option of a no deal Brexit. Then on Thursday, the House of Commons will vote on whether to extend Article 50.

An extension to Article 50 would not only mean that the UK does not leave the European Union on 29th March, but could result in the UK paying more in the divorce settlement, as the financial and legal demands of the EU increase.

Today’s GBP/EUR rate

The pound started the day lower against the euro today, but has now recouped earlier losses and the interbank GBP/EUR rate is now back above 1.16.

Few are expecting Theresa May to get her Brexit deal through Parliament tomorrow, but it’s quite feasible that the House of Commons could vote to remove a ‘no deal’ scenario and/or extend Article 50 later in the week. Both of these events could provide sterling with support, strengthening the pound against the euro.

Interest in selling the pound against the euro, and other major currencies is dwindling as markets bet that a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario will be avoided. Despite the uncertainty and possible volatility this week, I would not be at all surprised to see the pound trading higher against the euro by Friday.

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