Pound to Euro outlook: Political events affecting the GBP/EUR exchange rates

Pound to Euro rate Could next month's Brexit deadlines result in some volatility for GBPEUR rates?

Pound to euro exchange rates look like they will continue to be facing scrutiny over Brexit, as well other key events for Europe. The pound has proved on numerous occasions its sensitivity to Brexit news, at any moment a headline can trigger market activity, just like we have seen in recent weeks.

Pound to Euro exchange rate: Boris determined to bring UK out of the EU by October deadline

We cannot say exactly what will happen but, by looking at previous behaviour, it seems that increased chances of a no-deal will see the pound lower. Boris Johnson’s determination to Brexit by 31st October, come what may, has put focus on sterling.

Next week, MP’s will return from their summer recess, which may see the prospect of a vote of no-confidence increase, this could see sterling under pressure. Historically speaking, political uncertainty has weakened the pound and this news could be a factor to monitor.

Ahead, the market will be closely monitoring both the outcome from Italian politics, plus the latest news regarding the ECB (European Central Bank), who will meet on the 12th September to discuss the possibility of cutting their base interest rate and maybe cutting interest rates. On the sterling side in September, the latest news on interest rates will be released on the 19th September.

Brexit no-deal fears weigh on Sterling

The pound has been rising and falling on the latest Brexit news, recent fears over a no-deal are weighing on the pound, which has seen it lose value compared to the higher points earlier this year. However, Euro weakness has developed over the ongoing political concerns in Italy, which may rear their head at any time too.

Important events for the rest of this month include the latest UK Mortgage Approval data, plus the latest Eurozone Consumer Confidence and then German Inflation. Such data releases are mid-tier, with some propensity to encourage movement but unlikely to, according to past performance, to trigger as much movement as say an interest rate decision, one of the more volatile releases of the month.

If you have a transfer ahead on GBP/EUR, please feel free to contact our team to discuss the latest news and events to drive the price.