Pound to Euro Outlook : Will GBP/EUR Rise or Fall on the UK Election?

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead October 3rd

The pound to Euro outlook has been shaped largely by Brexit, as investors track the latest news and trends on the election, to try and determine how it might influence the outcome on Brexit. Sterling reached fresh 8-month highs against the Euro this week, as investors became more optimistic over the prospect of a Conservative majority, as evidenced by this week’s ComRes poll, which indicated a Conservative majority of 68 seats. This, is one of the most accurate polling methods and was the closest predictor of the outcome of the 2017 election.

Pound to Euro interbank rates have hit the 8-month high this week of 1.1763, a key improvement and not far from the March 2019 high of 1.1803. Clients looking to buy or sell Euros for pounds in the future, might wish to take stock of such news in their approach to their future transactions. Expectations for the election are just that, an expectation on what might happen. Even this more accurate method of polling is not a guarantee of future results and we know that the 2010, 2015, 2017 elections and the EU Referendum all suffered.

Johnson No Show in Channel 4 Leadership Debate

Friday night is the latest 7 way leadership debate, this could see some fresh news relating to the jostling amongst some of the smaller parties in this contest. Boris Johnson has faced criticism for not appearing on a Channel 4 debate, with a block of melting ice being used to stand in for him. Boris Johnson has stated he will be holding a Press Conference on Friday too, to present himself as available and open to criticism. The outcome from this might well lead to some future developments in the currency market and how it anticipates the election will fare.

How Will the Weather Affect the Election?

Other topics that may become an issue in the future relate to a wide range of factors, including for us British something very relevant, the weather. The first Winter election since 1923 is key in how it relates to the outlook on Brexit, there is an expectation that the results will influence the next direction on Brexit, and with it, the direction on sterling.

If you would like to learn more about factors influencing GBP/EUR exchange rates for an upcoming currency transfer, feel free to contact myself, Jonathan Watson, using the form below.