Sterling Stands near 31-Month High Versus Euro, as Polls Show Continued Tory Lead

GBP to EUR: UK & EU PMI Manufacturing Data Focus

The pound to euro interbank exchange rate stands at 1.1731 today. This is 0.27% below sterling’s recent 31-month high versus the Eurozone’s common currency, its strongest since May 14th 2017, reached last Wednesday 27th November 2019, at 1.1763.

Opinion Polls Show Continued Tory Lead, Ahead of UK Election on December 12th

Sterling stands near this 31-month high versus the euro on the interbank market today, because most opinion polls continue to suggest that the Conservative Party will win a majority of MPs at the UK’s general election, due on Thursday 12th December.

It’s thought that if a single political party wins this month’s vote, this will help to resolve Brexit, and contribute to the UK’s economic and political stability.

For example, according to The Guardian newspaper’s survey tracker of all the polling companies, the Tories stand at 43%, next to Labour’s 31%.

Traditionally, a 10% lead is enough to grant the first-place political party a majority in the House of Commons, to form a stable government.

Sterling May Be Affected, as Polls Show Labour Closing Gap with Conservatives

However, looking to the week-and-a-half until polling day, although most polls show the Tories are ahead, the opposition Labour Party’s share of the vote is apparently rising, which may cause uncertainty.

For example, according to Kantar’s latest poll, Labour has risen 5% in a week, while the opposition left-wing party has also gained, according to BMG, Ipsos MORI and YouGov, among others.

This might influence sterling, because it raises the possibility of a ‘hung’ Parliament, in which no single political party wins a majority of MPs. This may extend the Brexit limbo, running up against the UK’s extended January 31st deadline.

GBP to EUR Could Be Influenced, as Germany’s SNP Elects Little-Known Duo, May Impact Merkel Coalition

Also, the sterling vs euro interbank exchange rate may be affected this week, by Germany’s Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) election this Saturday of a little-known duo as leaders, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans.

Germany’s SDP currently forms part of a ‘Grand Coalition’ with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Unionists.

With this little-known pair at the helm of the SDP, it’s thought that they may be likelier to break up the ‘Grand Coalition’, partly destabilising Germany’s political outlook. This could affect the pound’s value versus the euro, looking ahead.

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