Will the Pound Rise Against the Australian Dollar in January?

EUR GBP Moves Higher Ahead of UK GDP Update

Australian Dollar Struggling Against the Pound

The Australian dollar has been struggling recently against the pound owing to a number of different reasons. The wildfires have caused a huge amount of damage to the country and this is likely to have a knock on effect on the economy. According to Katrina Ell from Moody’s ‘the risk of there being broader macroeconomic spillovers this season are high given the scale of the fires.’

Also, the chances are increasing that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will look to cut interest rates when they hold their next meeting on 4th February. Economic data has been mixed during 2019 and the RBA has already hinted that it may look to make further cuts to the interest rate.

Political issues have also caused volatility for the AUD with tensions in the Middle East rising with the recent incidents involving the US base in Iraq.

Middle East Tensions Causing Problems for the Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar has also weakened recently over the unrest in the Middle East. As a commodity based currency the AUD can often be adversely affected by geopolitical uncertainty. The currency can often be sold off as investors view the Australian dollar as a riskier based currency. Investors will then typically move money towards safe haven currencies including the US dollar, Swiss franc or the Japanese yen. This can be evidenced when looking at what has happened to those three currencies over the last few weeks.

Economic Data to Set the Tone for GBP/AUD Exchange Rates

As we go into next week for anyone looking to move pounds into Australian dollars it may be worth keeping a close eye on UK economic data. On Monday morning, the UK will announce a whole host of economic data. This will include both Industrial and Manufacturing Production data as well as the latest GDP estimate for the last three months published by the NIESR. This is usually fairly accurate and can often influence the value of sterling exchange rates.

On Tuesday, China will announce Import & Export data for December. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner any slowdown can cause weakness for the Australia dollar so could this see GBP/AUD exchange rates improve even further by early next week.

If you’re considering buying or selling euros and would like to compare rates or know more about the factors that could impact your exchange rate, feel free to contact me directly, I look forward to hearing from you.