The pound vs the US dollar rose earlier today but has once again started to fall. GBP made the gains shortly before and after the latest announcement which saw another very worrying news release about US jobless claims. The figure for this week came out at 5.245 million with continuing claims now getting very close to 12 million.
Typically a currency would often weaken with such a poor data release but in the case of the US economy this has actually helped to strengthen the US dollar. The reason why is that the US dollar is often used a safe haven currency so when we experience global uncertainty global investors will often seek solace and move their money in to the US dollar which appears to be happening at the moment.
The pound also fell this afternoon owing to some comments by Bank of England member Silvana Tenreyo who suggested that owing to inflation uncertainty the central bank is unable to confirm whether its next move will be to either loosen or tighten monetary policy. Tenreyo went on to say ‘after lockdown ends, there will be both inflationary and disinflationary pressures.’
We end the week with potentially a lot of movement for global exchange rates overnight when China announces its latest set of GDP data for both year on year and the first quarter of 2020. As the first country to experience the problems caused by the pandemic this first quarter will make very interesting reading and at the sane time as GDP data the Chinese will also announce their latest retail sales data for March expected to fall by 10%.
Anything dramatically different on both counts could see a lot of volatility for the currency markets so make sure you keep a close eye out on GBPUSD exchange rates when the UK markets open up early tomorrow morning.
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