GBPEUR at Yearly Highs Ahead of German Retail Data

GBPEUR Looks for Support Ahead of ECB Minutes

The GBPEUR exchange rate posted another new high for the year yesterday at 1.1760 as economic data favoured the pound. Upward revisions on UK GDP and lower number for Eurozone inflation and German employment kept the single currency under pressure.

GBPEUR trades at the highs and German data will be centre stage once more, with retail sales out this morning.

Travel Industry Hopes for extensive ‘green List’

The UK’s vaccination efforts could see its ‘green list’ of countries for safe foreign travel more than doubled, according to an airports group.

A study released by Oxera and Edge Health and Manchester Airports Group, saw the potential for flights to more than 130 countries if cases rates are similar to last summer, with Spain, Dubai, and USA on their list.

The study covered the last travel corridor scheme allowed people to visit countries with particular virus case rates. Because of the extent of vaccinations in the UK, holiday makers and business tourists could visit overseas destinations where virus rates are three times higher than in 2020, without increasing the risk to those at home, or to the NHS.

Holidays from the UK are set to be given the green light on May 17th on the current roadmap, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson planning to give an update on April 5th.

Another travel expert group said that countries with higher vaccination rates would also feature highly. The PC Agency said that, “Israel, USA, Gibraltar, Malta, and Dubai” would be likely to pass any screening due to their vaccination programs.

The GBP to EUR will eventually be affected by the travel list as Britons have built up a large savings pot and countries such as France and Germany could miss out on tourism monies as they grapple with higher cases and lower vaccine rates.

UK GDP and German Jobs Boost Sterling

GBP to EUR got a boost yesterday from the release of UK GDP, which saw the country bouncing more strongly than initial estimates. It was still the worst year on record, but the economy bounced over 16% and traders are now looking ahead to the current year with pound on course to benefit from a quicker reopening.

German employment figures saw a loss of -8k jobs versus the -3k expected and that was disappointing for Europe’s largest economy. The manufacturing sector has been strong but there are fears over job culls at companies such as Volkswagen due to cost cutting. Inflation in the Eurozone also dipped to 0.9% from 1.1% despite higher fuel prices. The numbers allow the European Central Bank to relax after recent bond yield spikes.

Europe’s key countries will release data again this morning with retail sales in Germany expecting to show a loss of -6.3%, from -8.7% in January. Manufacturing PMIs will also be seen for Italy and Spain, while the UK releases the same data. Figures showed UK manufacturing at 55.1 in February and analysts are expecting a reading of 57.9 this time.

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