Pound still forecast to be on negative trajectory
Here at PSF, we have access to the latest market research and FX forecast data. That is why, when clients come to us for support and assistance with their currency transactions, they know they can rely on authoritative and trusted data.
To be clear, predicting and forecasting is not wan exact science. Contrary to popular belief, no one on this planet can totally and accurately predict future FX rate movements.
Why is this? Because the FX rates move owing to the unfolding of future events. And whilst there are technical analysis of behaviours that will often and typically ring true, it is the fundamental drivers which shape the bigger movements.
As an example, think Brexit. The market and indicators all suggested a Remain vote and sterling strength. The probabilities were put at 80-90% Remain win on the close that evening, Nigel Farage pretty much conceded. And then, it became clear Leave had won, and the pound tanked.
Whilst many did correctly predict a Leave vote win, and the pound to weaken. No one could have 100% guaranteed it beforehand, because it was not known.
Sterling predictions for the coming months
Out of the 50 or so forecasters we have surveyed, a majority predict sterling to be lower against the Euro and the US Dollar forecast is more mixed.
For GBPUSD, we see a three-month range over 1.30, but a low below 1.20. The average takes us a cent lower, but this could be very susceptible to change.
For GBPEUR, the profile of the mean remains on slight downward trend, with a range from 1.11 – 1.20 over the coming three months.
This is just the summary, and we would be most interested to share more of the raw data behind this and help with your strategy and planning. Whilst you can google search and read the business sections in newspapers, you may not find the comprehensive and detailed analysis we can provide and have access to.
Thank you for reading, for a free, no obligation FX consultation for your personal or business transfers, please reach out to us directly.