Pound to Euro forecast: How low could the GBP/EUR rate fall?

Pound to Euro forecast - How low could GBP/EUR Fall?

The Pound to Euro rate has had some of their worst days since the EU Referendum vote with GBP/EUR levels dropping 3 cents between the high and the low this week. It is no surprise to learn such movements are Brexit related and it should be no surprise to hear that this might well continue further in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound continue to fall?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate reached a peak of 1.1549, with the lows of 1.1254 tested yesterday. For now, the big question is whether or not the Pound will have further to fall. The likelihood seems strong as we might well see either further resignations from key members of Mrs May’s Government, or more of an effort to topple her from her own Party.

It is well worth noting that Pound to Euro rates have been much lower throughout the Brexit process. We were at 1.0995 only 10 weeks ago, and 1.1190 on the 31st October. Sterling has been very volatile against the Euro and this seems highly likely to continue. Increased prospects of either Mrs May being ousted as leader could easily destabilise markets. It is well worth pointing out the lows of 1.075 reached in August 2017 too.

To accurately predict what happens next with the Pound to Euro rate requires careful analysis of the market and what lies ahead. This is no easy feat and those with a position to buy or sell, relying on an assumption they believe they know what lies ahead, should be making contingency plans.

Pound to Euro rates: What’s next for the Pound?

Assuming Mrs May can stay on we will now need to prepare for the Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal. All the indicators are that this will not be passed and what will happen then? No one really knows but we can expect the Pound will continue to be the main recipient of the uncertainty.

Pound to Euro rates are currently mid-range for the high to low performance in 2018, the possibility for further losses is high considering scope for further political uncertainty is so high. Quite often, the biggest gamble in the currency markets is to do nothing, waiting for something magical to happen.

If you have a position buying or selling Euros against the Pound and wish to discuss your requirements and the various options to protect your exchange rate, please do contact me Jonathan Watson directly using the form below.


Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed

Pound to Euro rate hits 6-month high as Brexit text is agreed, what could happen next to GBP/EUR

Yesterday the Pound to Euro exchange rate climbed to its best levels in 6 months. This level was within half a cent from the best Pound to Euro rate in 15 months, making it a good time for Sterling sellers when recent trade levels are considered.

Brexit news positive for Pound to Euro exchange rate

The reason for the spike in Sterling’s value is due to the announcement that a Brexit text has been agreed upon by Prime Minister Theresa May and her EU counterparts. The upside movement so far has been limited as the arrangements need to be agreed upon by May’s Cabinet before being passed through Parliament. This morning there is a lot of talk about whether there will be any further resignations by Cabinet members that are unhappy with the proposed deal. I think that if any members do step down the gains for Sterling over the past 24 hours would most likely be wiped out.

There is also a chance that the Cabinet will reject the proposed Brexit deal and this could be another reason for a drop in the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

Cabinet meeting set for 2pm today

At 14.00 GMT today the UK Cabinet is expected to meet to discuss the future relationship between the UK and EU along with the draft withdrawal agreement. If talks go well and progress is made there is talk of the previously cancelled November EU Summit being re-instated around the 25th of this month. This could be another potential market mover as it would signal positive strides being made by May in her quest to appease everyone in what seems like an impossible task at the moment.

Positive economic data for the UK

The Pound may have also been helped by the strong wage growth data released yesterday, which showed a further rise in regular pay growth to a decade high of 3.2%. Economic data is playing second fiddle to Brexit updates at the moment but it’s worth knowing that there is October’s inflation data being released later today which could impact the Pound to Euro rate depending on the release.

Another key topic at the moment that could impact the Pound to Euro exchange rate is the Italian Budget. The Italian coalition Government is in disagreement with the EU regarding its budget allowance, and the pair appear to be at loggerheads as this issue has been rumbling on for a while now.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major Pound to Euro movement, do feel free to send me a message. You can send me a message directly using the form below, to ask me any questions you may have about the Pound to Euro rate. I will respond to you personally.


Should I buy euros with pounds now?

Should I buy euros with pounds now

If you are reading these currency forecast articles for the first time as you have a pending pound to euro currency exchange, now is the time to formulate a plan as the Brexit negotiations are coming to an end and I expect major volatility for the pound to euro rate in the upcoming weeks.

What’s holding back a Brexit deal?

By all accounts UK and EU negotiators have been sipping coffee into the early hours of the morning to try and finalise a Brexit deal, as head EU negotiator Michel Barnier has warned that for an emergency summit to take place this month a deal needs to be reached by the end of tomorrow.

The major sticking point at the moment is an element of the temporary customs union known as the ‘backstop agreement’. The UK want an exit mechanism which means that the UK can leave a temporary customs agreement when requested, however the EU are playing hardball and stating the European Court of Justice must make the final decision.

This is a major problem for the Prime Minister as she knows that if she gives in to the EU demands, its extremely unlikely that MPs within the House of Commons will sign off on the final deal.

The outlook for buying euros with pounds

For people that are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds, now is the time to make a plan. Over the last 12 months GBP/EUR exchange rates have fluctuated between 1.10 and 1.1550 and I expect rates could break through either resistance point in the upcoming weeks depending on the outcome of the negotiations.

For those that are buying property abroad it’s extremely important to understand the final amount you will pay for your property is about to change in the upcoming weeks. If the negotiations don’t go to plan and Theresa May is either forced to accept the European Court of Justice make the final decision in regards to exiting the backstop or the PM leads the UK to a no deal Brexit, I expect GBP/EUR exchange rates will fall close to 1.06. To put this into monetary value a €200,000 property purchase would then cost an additional £14,500.

For more information about pound to euro exchange rates and the events that could potentially affect a currency exchange feel free to get in contact with me directly using the form below.


Pound to euro forecast: GBP/EUR rate hits 5 month high

Pound to euro forecast: GBP EUR at 5 month high

In today’s pound to euro forecast James Lovick discusses the recent rise in the GBP/EUR rate. The pound has rallied to a 5 month high against the euro creating a good buy opportunity for those looking to purchase euros. Much of the recent strength continues to stem from the optimism that a Brexit deal will be reached and that progress continues to be made.

Brexit latest news: Irish border issue still unresolved

There are some risks associated with these final stages though and whilst the pound is trading at better levels the issue of the Irish border continues to give both sides a headache in trying to find a solution. It has been reported that a number of Cabinet ministers are seeking to have an exit clause in any withdrawal agreement, but this has not been received well by the Irish.

The lack of agreement on this major issue could still force a no deal Brexit scenario, which although might be looking less likely at this point in time still cannot be ruled out. If the Brexit negotiations stop for any reason in these coming weeks or if for example the emergency EU summit in November does not take place then the pound is likely to slide versus the euro. We should know by the end of this week whether the EU summit will be taking place or not and there should be pound to euro volatility on the back of that.

Italian Budget concerns are causing to euro weakness

It’s not just a more buoyant pound that has helped to lift sterling higher but also a weaker euro. The European Commission rejected Italy’s Budget plans yesterday and has asked for them to be reviewed and updated by 13th November. Italy has been very forceful with the EU Commission to try and deliver on promises that were made during an election campaign but which are at odds with EU spending guidelines. It does leave yet another period of uncertainty for euro exchange rates as this latest issue gives concern in the markets especially considering the amount of debt.

For more information on how to make the most of any opportunities and timing your exchange for either buying or selling euros then please get in touch with me James at by using the form below:


Pound to Euro rates: Will GBP/EUR test the 1.15 level?

Pound to Euro rates - will GBP/EUR test the 1.15 level?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has edged higher this morning and broken through the 1.1450 level at its highest point of the day so far. The Pound to Euro rate has continued to climb despite poor data. This is due to hopes of a Brexit deal being agreed soon.

Pound to Euro exchange rate unaffected by poor UK Service data

I find the rise in the Pound to Euro exchange rate interesting and perhaps a sign of the Pound’s future price movements, as just yesterday there was a release of disappointing data out of the UK’s most important area of its economy. The services sector now covers around 80% of the UK economy so data released covering the health of the sector usually holds the potential to move the currency markets. Yesterday the October figure for Services PMI was released lower than expected. Sterling remained resilient and this morning its value has seen a boost from the levels it closed at yesterday.

The reason for the boost can be put down to renewed optimism surrounding a Brexit deal. Last week the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab suggested a deal could be in place by the 21st of November. There has also been talk of the previously cancelled November EU Summit being reinstated, which has also buoyed the Pound. Today British Prime Minister, Theresa May will hold a Cabinet meeting where Brexit will be in focus, especially the Northern Irish border and I expect this to continue to fuel rumours of Brexit progress.

Economic data that could affect Pound to Euro exchange rate

There are no major economic data releases out of the UK today, and there won’t be until the release of 3rd quarter GDP data on Friday. During this time Brexit news will most likely be the main driver but it’s also worth paying attention to the issues surrounding the Italian Budget and its Government’s disagreements with the EU regarding their Budget plans. At the moment the country is in a stalemate with the EU and if Italy doesn’t amend its plan it could be required to pay a fine of 0.2% of its GDP to the EU. Should this issue continue there is a chance of seeing the Euro weaken as Italy is a key constituent of the European Union. These issues would be coming at a bad time for the trading bloc as they already have the UK’s Brexit to content with.

If you would like to be kept updated in the event of a major market move in Pound to Euro exchange rates, do feel free to get in touch. You can use the form below to send me a message directly:


Pound vs Euro closes in on a 5 month high

Pound vs Euro closes in on a 5 month high

In our latest pound to euro forecast we look at the week ahead for the currency pair. This weekend reports have emerged that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is closer to reaching a deal with the EU than many had first thought. Many media outlets have reported that the PM found herself calling her own Cabinet members in a bid to assure them that she is not preparing a summit at the end of the month before securing political agreement within her party.

Brexit news: Is there an agreement over the Irish border?

European diplomats have responded and stated no agreement has been made in regards to the Irish border. However for clients buying a foreign currency with the pound and in particular the euro, exchange rates have increased throughout this morning’s trading period and pound vs euro exchange rates are now close to a 5 month high.

The news that a Brexit deal is close, is great for clients buying euros. It was only last week the Bank of England stated that a smooth Brexit would likely mean that interest rates would be raised gradually towards 1.5% in the short term. If this was to happen, you would likely see investment reaches British shores and therefore the pound to gain value against the euro.

However over the last 12 months, we have seen that the Brexit negotiations are complex and therefore a deal is never done until a handshake has taken place and both parties sign on the dotted line. What I mean by that is, if we receive commentary from the EU in the upcoming weeks that we are still at the opposite ends of the spectrum in regards to the Irish border I wouldn’t be surprised to see pound sterling rates fall back to lows we were experiencing throughout the third quarter of this year.

All eyes now turn to Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron’s meeting on Friday. With the negotiations appearing to be in the balance, I am expecting a volatile finish to the week for pound vs euro exchange rates. For clients buying euros, proceeding with caution would be my recommendation. I still believe there is time for GBP/EUR rates to fall before a deal is stuck. If you are buying euros short term getting in touch today is wise.

You can message me directly using the form below:


GBP/EUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Sterling tailed off towards the end of last week after a prominent think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warned about the potential negative effects of a no-deal Brexit. I expect similar concerns to dominate the headlines following the Autumn Budget this afternoon as the Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will be speaking. He’s scheduled to speak around 3.00pm, so those of our readers following the pound’s value at the moment should pay close attention to this event.

GBP/EUR rates driven by Autumn Budget

If Philip Hammond adopts a dovish attitude as I predict he will, I think we could see the pound lose value against the euro. There has been talk in the papers over the weekend suggesting that if the UK departs the EU without a deal in place, there will be a need for an increased Budget. How Hammond plans on obtaining this could put pressure on sterling’s value.

Although I expect the Budget to be the main driver of the pound’s value this afternoon, it’s also worth following the euro’s value and euro related news as that too could impact GBP/EUR.

Will German elections impact GBP/EUR rates?

Over the weekend there were some poor regional election results in Hesse and Bavaria for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats Party, and its Baveria-only sister party. This performance by the Christian Democrats is their worst performance since 1966 and Angela Merkel has since stated that she with be completely withdrawing from politics after 2021. This will bring an end to her dominance within European politics, and she believes that national politics have had a big influence on the results in the regional elections from the weekend.

The news hasn’t dramatically swayed pound to euro exchange rates, but I think an upheaval within European politics could put pressure on the euro’s value especially if the more populist parties continue to make gains in the upcoming months.

Bank of England interest rate decision

Later in the week the Bank of England will give their interest rate decision with the markets expecting no change. The comments afterwards from BoE Governor Mark Carney will be followed closely, so expect any references to monetary policy to result in movement in the GBP/EUR exchange rate.

Please don’t hesitate to get in touch using the form below if you’d like to discuss these factors, or to ask another question. I’ll be happy to respond personally.


GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Under Pressure as Irish Border Concerns Continue

Sell euros for pounds

The pound has struggled to make any significant inroads against the major currencies, despite a slight upturn against EUR earlier this week.

Investors’ risk appetite for the pound has diminished once again, following a lack of clarity over which direction Brexit talks are really heading in.

The pound had made gains on the assumption that there would be an agreement between the UK and EU at last week’s summit in Brussels. This positivity proved to be premature as talks once again hit an impasse, predominantly due to the issues surrounding the Irish border.

Conflicting reports are not helping to clarify this situation, which is proving to be a key sticking point in the Brexit negotiations. Discussions about a backstop agreement – which could involve the whole of the UK following next March’s deadline – seem to have helped quell any further major GBP sell-offs for the time being.

However, in truth no one yet knows how this situation will play out. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to appease not only the UK public, but also members of her own party. With this lack of continuity unlikely to boost investor confidence in the pound, I am not anticipating any aggressive spikes over the coming days, unless of course there is a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.

GBP/EUR rates are currently marooned around 1.13, with the single currency finding plenty of support around the current levels. This support for the euro comes despite the market’s concerns surrounding the Italian economy and the changing political landscape in Germany.

The current trend is typical of recent months, when sterling has threatened to make a sustained advance, only to see its value fall amid the on-going Brexit uncertainty.

To discuss the factors impacting GBPEUR rates in the run up to the Brexit deal deadline, feel free to use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally.


Brexit continues to dictate GBP/EUR

Brexit continues to dictate GBP/EUR

There continues to be high levels of volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates as Brexit talks intensify. The Irish border remains the key point of contention; should we see a deal come to fruition we could see significant sterling strength. The original date to have a deal agreed was 17th October, but it now may go to an emergency summit in mid-November. However, the final agreement may still not happen then, considering how many extensions have happened so far.

Is Theresa May’s position in doubt?

There is concern for Theresa May’s position with numerous Conservative Party members questioning her ability to get a Brexit deal in place, and the deal that she is willing to accept. I question their motives; during the most important negotiations involving the UK in the last fifty years I think the PM should be supported rather than Party members throwing a spanner in the works at every corner. I sense that the vast majority of her opposition are merely looking to make advances in their own career.

It is rumoured that there are currently 46 Conservative Party members willing to put forward a vote of no confidence, with 48 required for a leadership challenge.

I am not convinced. If a leadership challenge was to take place it is not likely the candidate would win a majority victory, and if that was the case we could be looking at a general election and the potential risk of Labour gaining control, I think the risk may not warrant the reward.

This would be terrible for the pound. Political and economic uncertainty during Brexit talks would cause a heavy fall in sterling value.

If you are purchasing euros it may be advisable to move in tranches. I believe a Brexit deal will be agreed, but it may come at the eleventh hour and we can expect further sterling weakness in the build up. I would consider performing 20-30% of my trade at current levels and hang fire in the hope of a deal for the remainder, of course this is dependent on your time scale.

If you would like me assist in helping you with a strategy to suit your individual needs, please do not hesitate to get in touch. You can use the form below to request further information and I’ll be happy to respond personally.


Italian Budget could cause the Euro to weaken against the Pound

Italian Budget could cause the Euro to weaken against the Pound

The Pound has remained in a fairly tight range against the Euro recently as the Brexit news has stalled and this has caused investors to remain cautious on GBPEUR exchange rates. However, the recent news story coming out of Italy is that they have had their credit rating downgraded by Moody’s at the end of last week.

The European Commission has now told Italy that it must revise its current planned budget which is the first time in history that they have intervened.

Italy is the third largest economy within the Eurozone behind Germany and France and with the current party planning excessive spending according to the EC they have been warned that they must change their plans.

The current statement is that they have now been given three weeks to change their plans.

The Italian government has committed to ‘end poverty’ by increasing the assistance given to the unemployed as well as cutting taxation. Some of these ideas were put forward at the time of the elections and they have remained committed to what they pledged previously. The problem for the country is that they are unable to afford to go ahead with what they want as this will substantially increase their deficit.

During 2017 Italian debt was as much as 131% of GDP and the only country in the Eurozone in a worse situation is Greece.

As yet the Euro has not been affected negatively but I think it is only a matter of time before this particular story gathers pace and this is reflected in the value of the Euro against the Pound.

On Thursday the European Central Bank will announce their latest monetary policy statement and any signs as to what they are moving towards in terms of policy is likely to affect GBPEUR exchange rates so make sure you’re well prepared for further exchange rate movement if you’re planning a currency transfer in the short term.

If you have a currency transfer to make it’s always a good idea to consider your options. Feel free to use the form below to get in touch with me directly. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss the factors likely to impact exchange rates in the weeks ahead.


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