Pound to Euro forecast: Theresa May under pressure ahead of next week’s Brexit vote

Pound to Euro forecast: Theresa May under pressure ahead of next week's Brexit vote

Sterling has lost further ground against its Euro counterpart this week, with the markets gearing up for next week’s key Brexit vote.

There was another twist to the on-going saga yesterday, as UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered fresh humiliation in the House of Commons. With the PM fighting to push through her Brexit deal in the same venue next week, she took yet another hit as the Government lost a second dramatic Parliamentary showdown in as many days.

Should the PM’s Brexit deal be rejected by MPs next week, as many expect it to be, then her room for manoeuvre and window to turn around the rejection of support has been decreased dramatically.

She now has only three working days to come up with a plan B, a result which caused an outcry and furious scenes inside the House of Commons, a venue which could ultimately seal Theresa May’s fate next Tuesday, should she lose what is becoming the most critical phase of Brexit talks so far.

Pound to Euro forecast: What’s next for GBP/EUR?

The Pound has suffered once again as a result of this uncertainty, dropping to 1.1045 against the Euro at this morning’s low. Looking ahead, if next week’s vote does not go favourably for the PM then I anticipate the Pound to Euro rate to fall further, with the 1.10 resistance level likely to come under serious threat.

However, I do feel that a negative result for the PM has been at least partially factored in to the current value of Pound to Euro rates, so any positive result could see an surge in support for GBP, which I would expect to make a run towards 1.15 at least should she gain the necessary support to push through her Brexit proposal.

Looking at the Eurozone economy and this is also starting to show signs of weakness, which could put pressure on the EUR as we move through the first quarter of 2019.

For more information about my Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.

GBP/EUR Alert – Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

GBP/EUR Alert - Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

The pound could be in for some severely testing times as the latest Parliamentary vote on Brexit approaches next week. Whilst last night the Government was defeated on a Finance Bill which should help prevent a no-deal Brexit, the pound could still be in for some volatile sessions ahead.

No-deal Brexit deemed too disruptive to UK economy

The British Government is planning for a no-deal Brexit but many in Parliament have said they will do everything in their power to stop a no-deal, for fear it will be too disruptive for the UK economy.

There is an expectation the deal will not get through in the vote on Tuesday. This could see sterling much lower as the market is forced to decide on what the likely outcomes are in the future. These include a General Election and also a second EU Referendum.

Assuming the vote does not get passed, it is difficult to see how the pound will not have a good day. In December, the postponing of the vote saw the pound losing ground as investors lost faith in the UK and the currency. The only way I can see sterling having a good day, is if the Bill is passed which seems highly unlikely.

Increased political uncertainty is negative for the Euro

The Euro is under pressure too and if it wasn’t for sterling being in such a quagmire, the pound would probably be doing much better against the single currency. Expectations for the Euro are still rather mixed, increased political uncertainty in the Eurozone may see the currency softer as investors await further news on economic news.

Yesterday, the German economy was in the spotlight highlighting the fears of either a German recession, or worse a Eurozone recession. German Manufacturing activity showed a decline which could be something of concern for the future. However, despite concerns in the Eurozone, the Euro continues to defy expectations and find buoyancy against the pound.

I expect the pound could be in for a few excessively volatile trading sessions in the coming weeks. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro might wish to take stock of the major movements we might expect.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my GBP/EUR forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

In this pound to Euro forecast we look ahead at the events that could influence GBP/EUR rates in January. What can we expect in January and will GBP/EUR rates drop further?

January is looking to be a crucial month for Brexit which is the main driver of the pound to Euro rate. The pound has been weaker in recent weeks as investors lack of understanding of the Brexit is reflected in the price of the pound. The Euro has been finding some favour too, further exacerbating the trend on the pair.

The key date for January will be the week commencing 14th January where we have the next scheduled Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This might still be postponed and there are conflicting reports over just what we might expect from this episode.

Ultimately, we might still be looking at a no-deal scenario which would see the pound weaken, many forecasters had previously placed GBP/EUR at closer to parity should we see this turn of events.

What might be more likely is that we see either a General Election or a second EU Referendum as the number of options available diminishes and we are left with these outcomes. I believe either of these outcomes would see the pound much lower as investors are forced to consider the potentially negative elements.

There is now a growing sense that the pound will only struggle further in the coming weeks as even if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is passed, there will then be a whole new set of questions over just how Brexit will pass.

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will the Euro perform?

The Euro is stronger entering 2019 as investors find comfort from the resolution over the Italian budget standoff and also warm to the idea of the ECB, European Central Bank, making further progress with their economic plans.

For clients with a GBP/EUR currency exchange in 2019, now could be a very good time to review your position. The expectation is for increased uncertainty over Brexit but any signs the political or economic situations in the Eurozone are not going to plan, would weigh on the Euro.

I expect to encounter a range of 1.07-1.15 in the month, taking account of the possibility of all eventualities.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my pound to Euro forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Rate Falls During Overnight Flash Crash

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

The pound to euro rate has fallen lower as we have moved into 2019 with rates for the GBP to EUR pair having fallen to below 1.1050. A mini flash crash was seen in overnight trading with a sudden but short lived fall in the pound which has been attributed to low liquidity conditions at this time of year and at this time of night when many of the exchange markets were shut whilst Japan is enjoying a four day holiday. The crash also appears to stem from a poor set of forecasts for Apple Inc’s revenue which saw substantial losses in its share value, which in turn is having a knock on effect on the currency markets with GBP to EUR trading lower.

Pound to Euro rate: Concerns as 2019 begins

2019 starts the year with a number of major concerns over Brexit as well as the continued uncertainty over the US trade wars. There are real concerns for the Chinese economy and this impacts on the global economy too. With the prospect of the US applying further trade tariffs on all of China’s exports then there is likely to be more reaction for the pound and euro to any developments here.

Brexit meanwhile is already proving to be the main driver for the pound and this is expected to intensify in these coming weeks after Parliament returns from the Christmas recess on the 7th of January. The Parliamentary vote that was to be held before Christmas is now scheduled to be voted on before 21st January, with the 14th January a likely date.

Debating of the Brexit deal that has been agreed between the UK and EU will commence on the 9th of January. It has already been reported that one of the former Brexit secretary’s David Davis, has said that there is not enough support for the deal at this point in time and is urging that the vote be delayed again. The continued uncertainty over whether or not there will be a Brexit deal is keeping the pound on the back foot and there is every chance the pound may fall further in the run up to this important Parliamentary vote.

If Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to secure a majority in the House of Commons then the default option on Brexit is to revert to a no deal and this outcome is proving to be a distinct possibility which carries negative risk for the pound to euro rate.

If you would like to learn more about pound to euro exchange rates please do feel free to send me a message using the form below:

Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

The Pound is close to its lowest level all year as we are now just three months away from the deadline when the UK is due to officially leave the European Union.

The latest key date will come in the next fortnight when MPs will meet once again to vote on the current Brexit deal.

Earlier this month the vote was postponed after it emerged that Theresa May clearly didn’t have enough support to get the Brexit deal through and since then she has tried to lobby the EU to make some amendments to the deal on offer.

Could the UK stay in the European Union?

What has emerged during the course of this month is that there is clearly a lot of support in favour of remaining in the European Union. At the moment MPs have made it clear that they are in favour of staying in the EU. The EU clearly wants to make things difficult for the UK to leave and indeed it could be argued that as Theresa May previously voted to remain, is the plan to keep challenging the deal until we get towards the end of March?

The European Court of Justice has said on a number of occasions that the UK will be allowed to revoke Article 50 until the end of the two year period which ends in March 2019 so if we face the prospect of a no deal could the UK revoke Article 50?

Theresa May has committed to lead us through Brexit but if she is unable to get the Brexit deal through parliament I think she could end up stepping down as she will not be able to complete her mandate, so could we see another leader by Spring 2019 or indeed a general election coming by then?

What’s next for Pound vs Euro rates?

There is a lot of uncertainty over the next few months and this has caused the Pound to remain under pressure. The future of Pound vs Euro rates will be heavily reliant on how the first quarter of 2019 goes in terms of the Brexit discussions.

In the short term I think we could briefly dip below 1.10 on Pound vs Euro exchange rates, but I think the losses will be limited as GBP/EUR has remained between 1.10-1.15.

Indeed, during this year the foreign exchange markets still appear to be adopting a wait and see approach as to what may happen when or if the Brexit does take place. My current suspicion is that we could either see a second referendum or Article 50 revoked.

Whatever happens I expect a very volatile next three months for the Pound vs Euro so it may be worth getting your currency organised in the short term to avoid the heightened risks of what may happen.

For a free quote you can contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the Pound to Euro rate drop below 1.10? What may happen to GBP/EUR in early January?

Will Sterling drop below 1.10 against the Euro? What may happen in early January?

The Pound has remained reasonably flat against the Euro this week as we enter the festive season and I feel that this may be the situation until the end of the trading year, unless any large surprises pop up.

With very little news due to come out from Brexit now that Parliament are due to take their recess period the market will be reliant on general sentiment and any surprise news that hits the media.

Generally at this time of year you can find that trading levels are much thinner, so if there are any developments with Brexit or any market moving releases, then you may see the rates move a little more than normal.

Will Sterling Euro drop below 1.10?

Many of my clients are now asking me if I feel the rate could drop back below a key resistance level of 1.10 and I have to say that in my opinion the answer is yes. Whether or not it stays below 1.10 for a long period of time will be dependent on how things go for Theresa May in her Parliamentary vote. As it stands if you look at both sides of GBP/EUR politically and in terms of economic performance the Pound has more chance of dropping than rising.

UK growth downgraded

Growth expectations were yesterday downgraded for the UK by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, from 0.3% to 0.2% and even matters like the Gatwick drone issue will not help economic performance for December as airlines will have a huge headache to try and overcome.

Parliament expected to vote down current Brexit deal

The Parliamentary vote on Brexit is due to happen in mid January and I really do not see how Theresa May is going to get enough support to push through her deal. I cannot see her getting enough improvement on its current terms to turn enough heads.

I would expect Sterling to wobble in advance of this vote, however it would not be a surprise to see the Pound strengthen after it, even is she loses as although it does open up the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit it does also give the potential of Theresa May leaving and someone else taking the reigns. This may delay or even cancel Article 50 which could actually give Sterling a huge boost.

All in all if you have a large exchange to make in the near future involving buying or selling Euros then it is key that you deal with a proactive and efficient currency broker that can help you negotiate these choppy waters ahead. We here at Pound Sterling Forecast can help you with this, along with helping you secure a highly competitive rate when you do come to actually lock in your exchange.

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Brexit news and Bank of England meeting to set tone for Pound to Euro rates

Brexit news and Bank of England meeting to set the tone for the Pound to Euro rates

The Pound to Euro rate (GBP/EUR) has remained in a very tight range during the last few days as it appears as though the foreign exchange markets are adopting a wait and see approach towards Brexit.

There have been little economic data announcements over the last few days and this has kept Pound to Euro exchange rates from moving by too much.

However, it appears as though things are moving behind the scenes with Theresa May’s Cabinet looking to create contingent plans in the event of a no deal Brexit.

One positive to come out during the last few days for the political situation is that leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that, “under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act I will always support the Conservative Government”.

He has been rather outspoken in recent weeks about his dislike for Theresa May’s Brexit deal and he was one of the politicians who was part of the group who wrote letters to have a vote of no confidence, so a change in his stance has come as a welcome breath of fresh air.

The next vote in the House of Commons is now due to take place in the third week of January so we could see some very big movements this time next month. If you’re comfortable with where Pound to Euro rates are currently trading and would like to avoid the uncertainty then it may be worth getting your currency organised at the moment.

Bank of England comments could affect Pound to Euro rates

The Bank of England are due to meet tomorrow and although I cannot see any change to the current monetary policy the tone of the comments immediately after the announcement will be key as to how Sterling will perform.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been rather outspoken previously about how problematic the Brexit could be for the UK economy so it will be important to see what is said tomorrow afternoon if you’re in the process of making a Pound to Euro transfer.

We end the week with UK GDP data due out on Friday morning so expect to see a lot of movement on Pound to Euro rates on Friday, so make sure you’re well prepared.

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Will Pound to Euro rates drop below 1.10 before Christmas?

Will Pound to Euro rates drop below 1.10 before Christmas?

In this article we look at whether Pound to Euro rates could drop below 1.10 before Christmas? The big news this week is whether Jeremy Corbyn will succeed in engineering a no-confidence vote in the Government. There is growing pressure on Mrs May to come up with the goods and deliver on Brexit, or to take the matter to parliament for them to decide. This could very easily see the pound lower as the market seeks to adjust to the likelihood of further negative news.

There is a growing belief that Brexit could be delayed, cancelled or possibly given back to the people to decide. A key aspect gaining popularity is of course the likelihood of a second referendum. This is a very difficult matter to broach and might see excessive volatility for the pound as the market has to try and second guess the possible implications from this factor.

The pound is very much on the back-foot which might well see us lower if the uncertainty increases so it is well worth trying to track the news to keep up to date with the latest trends and themes. Clients with a position on GBP/EUR could see pound to euro rates drop below 1.10. I really do feel this is a likelihood now as the uncertainty for the UK’s position seems likely to persist.

I cannot see the UK or the pound benefiting from the predicted uncertainty ahead. This week will be crucial as an indicator as to what might be expected from Jeremy Corbyn and whether or not he can trigger a motion of no confidence in the Government and topple Mrs May.

Pound to euro rates could be in for a choppy period as the market sees less volatility and liquidity in the trading sessions. Investors will be less likely to wish to hold the pound as it is at risk of destabilising quickly, if events take a wrong turn.

For me, the risk still remains to the downside for the pound, if you have a currency transfer to consider buying or selling the pounds against the Euro, please do contact me to learn the latest news. You can use the form below to send me a message directly.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Theresa May stonewalled by Brussels

Pound to Euro Forecast: Theresa May stonewalled by Brussels

In today’s pound to euro forecast we discussed the latest events affecting the rates, starting with Theresa May’s Brexit deal which appears to stand little chance of passing through the House of Commons. The PM’s hopes of gaining assistance from EU leaders to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons have been dashed. She now must return home to face the wrath of her Party.

May’s intention was to head to the EU’s winter summit in Brussels to try and gain legal assurances that the Irish back-stop would be a temporary situation.

May stated the following upon her arrival, “I don’t expect an immediate breakthrough but what I do hope is that we can start work as quickly as possible on the assurances that are necessary”.

The response from Brussels was far from positive and they offered no legal assurances on the Irish back-stop. Apparently Mrs May offered one plan which was not to agree a conclusion date of the Irish back-stop, but she wanted a start date for the future trade relationship.

Shortly after the meeting a series of conclusions were reached by EU leaders without May.

It has been reported that one of the crucial draft lines to be removed was “The union stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided”. The line was replaced with the following, “Work on preparedness at all levels for the consequences of the UK’s withdrawal to be intensified, taking into account all possible outcomes”.

European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker stated the following, “We don’t want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation, that is crystal clear. We can add clarifications but no real changes. There will be no legally binding obligations imposed on the withdrawal treaty”.

What next for the pound to euro rate?

This is devastating news for the PM and brings us to the next question of what happens next? The House of Commons will not be happy and the vote has already been delayed due to the lack of support for the current Brexit deal.

There are several possible outcomes. A no deal, which would be negative for the pound, a general election which would also potentially be Sterling negative and a second referendum which could cause potential Sterling strength, although I wouldn’t say by much.

The official date for the deal to go through the House of Commons is 14th January but in it’s current status it looks as though there is zero chance of it going through. Jean Claude Junker’s comments also seem to make it clear there will be no amendments.

The Eurozone is currently in no healthy state with the situation in France and Italy, but Brexit continues to be the key factor on pound to euro rates. The pound is fragile, there is little justification for any significant Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

If you would like to discuss my latest pound to euro forecast, or would like to talk over your options for a currency transfer I can be contacted directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro Forecast – Theresa May wins the vote which gives the Pound a boost against the Euro

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the events of this week and the factors affecting exchange rates. Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to survive the vote of no confidence yesterday evening with a majority of 83 votes and this has helped the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

The result showed 200-117 which highlights discontent in the Party but with a relatively strong majority this has given her the support, at least in the short term to lead the Party forward. She did however admit that she wouldn’t be standing for the next general election due to take place in 2022.

Indeed, the vote showed that she now has more votes in favour compared to during her leadership campaign a couple of years ago.

Theresa May has now gone to attend the EU summit in Brussels with leaders expected to arrive at around lunchtime. The main agenda point will clearly be that of Brexit and EU council President Donald Tusk has suggested that the EU are prepared to discuss further terms and perhaps adopt a different conclusion.

Brexit latest news

One of the main sticking points of the current deal on offer is that of the Irish backstop arrangement, which the DUP will categorically not support. Unless something can be changed I think the discussions will remain at a stalemate.

The real problem for the future of Brexit is that the House of Commons appear to be opposed to this deal and seem likely to oppose any future deals, which puts the Brexit in doubt.

With just over three months to agree terms the UK is running out of time to get things organised and I think the UK may even in time consider revoking Article 50 if they are unable to get the Brexit deal through Parliament before the end of March.

Theresa May’s survival is good news for the Pound to Euro forecast

The good news for those looking to send money to Europe though is that as Theresa May has managed to survive the no confidence vote this has helped the Pound gain some support after its collapse when Theresa May delayed the Brexit vote earlier this week.

In the short term I think we could see some further respite for the Pound as the European Central Bank are due to meet later on today. If the tone at the press conference is rather dovish I think we could see further gains for the Pound vs the Euro.

For further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

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