Pound Sterling Weakness – Why Is The Pound Dropping So Much?

Sterling exchange rates have taken a huge hit over the course of the days trading, as the new chancellor Kwasi Kwateng’s mini-budget appears to have knocked the pound totally out of fashion.

The pound has lost over 350bps against the Dollar sitting in the 1.08 territory, whilst dropping to 1.12 against the Euro and hitting the lowest level against the Swiss Franc since 1974 sitting in the 1.06s.

There is now talk of an intervention and whether HMT will make an attempt late on Sunday night ahead of the Asian markets opening to stabilise the currency, should this not happen or not have the desired effect the Bank of England may need to step in again and look at an emergency interest rate hike less than a week after they raised rates by 50 basis points, which in all honesty wouldn’t look great.

Sterling really is taking some big blows out in the financial markets and it is tough to see how the pound will fight back, the lower Sterling exchange rates go, the more costs will spiral and the bigger the potential problem, so we are stuck in a really tricky situation of late.

I like to monitor the pound against a basket of major currencies and today was the biggest drop I can remember since the referendum, with a loss of over 10% in value against a basket of major currencies.

So where does this leave you if you have a large purchase to make be it personally or for your business overseas? The key in the coming weeks is being agile and ready to act.

We could still see a bounce back should we have an intervention or a rate hike, but you must also exercise caution that if this trend continues and you keep holding on it could be an extremely expensive decision.

If you have foreign currency to exchange back through sale of goods with your business or a personal property sale then you are probably reading this feeling pretty happy as your foreign currency has just become worth a lot more, but do be cautious not to get caught in the vicious circle of waiting and waiting then finding it bounces back and it is too late, this is a common occurrence with people in my experience.

I have been helping people move money around the world for 15 years now, if you would like to discuss the pound’s sudden loss of value or chat about a potential trade you need to carry out then feel free to email me, Daniel Wright on [email protected] and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally.

You can also set rate alerts, follow the markets, request quotes and view graphs/charts here on Pound Sterling Forecast so feel free to take a look around the site and we hope it is helpful.

Will the pound keep rising against the Euro and when is the best time to buy Euros in September?

A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

The pound to Euro exchange rate has bounced back from the recent lows rising above 1.16 and making a brave challenge for 1.17 in the last 24 hours. Some fresh confidence that finally, the British government is going to do something about the awful cost of living crisis facing the UK has seen investors take advantage of the recent lows of sterling and buy in some speculative positioning.

It might be argued that all this has done is stem the tide of a majorly depreciating pound, but however you look at it, it has bounced back presenting an opportunity to buy Euros some market watchers might have thought had passed. At its more recent lows of 1.14s, the pound is over 5 cents lower from the almost 1.20 level we hit at the turn of August.

This sudden turn of events shows just how quickly market sentiment can change, and how expensive it can be to hold out for that little bit extra when considering a large volume currency purchase. The reality is no one can say precisely what the market will do next, but with careful analysis of the facts and an educated assessment of previous behaviors, you can make an insightful decision that is based on something.

Whilst sterling has bounced higher on the news that Liz Truss will seek to help with the cost of living crisis, we are awaiting firmer details and this will perhaps not be an overnight change. The current inflation the UK is experiencing is now deep-rooted, with a shift back to more acceptable levels likely to take many months if not years. The problems of inflation are everywhere to see, with less spending power available for consumers, which is already impacting economic growth and presenting headaches for the Bank of England.

This issue, whilst not unique to the UK and sterling, has more seriously affected the UK because consumers have been more exposed to the higher inflation than in some other European countries where more is done to temper higher energy costs through state intervention.

Looking at some of the predictions for GBPEUR ahead, we can see a fair range with some analysts seeing back towards 1.20, others anticipating a move below 1.10 over the next 12 months. This reflects the great uncertainty over just how the market will react to some fairly monumental changes in interest rate policy for both the UK and Eurozone, as well as in the United States all against a backdrop of potential recessions and worryingly high inflation.

As an FX dealer for 13 years at one of the UK’s longest-established FX brokerages I would be very happy to share much greater insight into the forecasts ahead, and work with you to develop a strategy to help maximise your currency exchange. At the very least I might be able to give you some peace of mind and reassurance, from a chat with an expert over why rates are where they are, and what we can expect in the future.

Click here to contact us today.

Will Sterling continue to recover following last week’s dramatic sell-off?

Pound to Dollar Rate Drops to One-month Low

Yesterday the Pound begun the week in a strong fashion, following on from its recovery towards the end of last week.

During last week’s trading session the Pound traded within an 8% range against the US Dollar and the trading range for GBP/EUR wasn’t far from this kind of dramatic trading range either. I would say that it was the most volatile week of trading since the Brexit vote took place back in June of 2016.

The Pound begun to fall in value in the fall-out from the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget report when he announced that the government planned to scrap the higher tax bracket of 45p for higher earners. Financial markets were concerned with this plan along with a number of other announcements from Kwarteng and the Pound begun to tumble as a result.

The decision to go back on this plan, along with rumoured Bank of England buying up of long term bonds to stabilise the Pound’s value and financial markets has helped the Pound recover after it hit the lowest levels in history against the US Dollar, and the lowest level against the Euro in almost two-years.

Although the Pound has now recovered against the Euro and also recovered some of the losses against the US Dollar, moving forward there remains a number of underlying issues which could put further pressure on the Pound. The Conservative Party are facing a number of challenges as there didn’t appear to be a clear consensus between them regarding the financial announcements at the mini budget. Also, Labour is leading in the polls by a considerable margin so there could be political uncertainty in future which could put pressure on the Pounds value.

When markets are moving this quickly, and political updates are having such an impact on the value of the Pound it can be difficult to know when to make currency conversions and that’s where having a currency specialist on hand to keep you updated can be helpful. We can provide you with market updates and also help set up rate alerts to keep you informed.

For further information please feel free to contact me directly on [email protected]

Bank of England and mini budget – The impact on Sterling exchange rates

 GBP EUR Higher After Inflation Hits Another High 

The Bank of England increased interest rates for the 7th time in a row by 0.5% to take the base rate up to 2.25%, which was the biggest single rate hike in years. This caused the Pound to fall briefly against both the Euro and US Dollar as there were some predictions that the Bank of England may have raised rates by as much as 0.75%. As this didn’t happen the Pound plunged almost immediately after the announcement but managed to reverse some of the earlier losses later in the afternoon.

However, as of Friday morning, the Pound has struggled against both the US Dollar and the Euro and we are due to have the announcement from the Chancellor later today which is likely to cause more movements for GBPEUR exchange rates as well as GBPUSD exchange rates.

Currently, the US Dollar is close to its strongest level in history vs the Pound highlighting the real problems that the UK economy is facing whilst in the midst of a cost of living crisis. Indeed the GBPUSD exchange rate is at its lowest level seen since 1985 creating some excellent opportunities for those people looking to exchange US Dollars into Sterling in the short term. I have personally seen a rise in enquiries of clients looking to move money from the US to both the UK and Europe

The mini-budget is due out later with Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng due to announce online tax cuts as well as dropping the planned rise in corporation tax. The economy and currency markets will be waiting with baited breath to see the impact of the announcement so pay close attention to the statement later on today.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote then contact me directly [email protected] I have worked in the industry for 19 years and I’m confident of being able to help you.

What will 2023 Bring For Sterling Exchange Rates?

Sterling exchange rates have dropped on the whole throughout 2022 and it is fair to say there are a number of quite obvious reasons behind the poor performance of the pound over the course of the year.

Here is a summary of GBP paired against a selection of major currencies and the movement since 1st Jan 2022 as an example.

GBP/USD -10.79%

GBP/EUR -4.97%

GBP/CAD -5.44%

GBP/AUD -4.69%

GBP/CHF -9.97%

All in all, the above suggests the pound indeed had a torrid time of it, most notably shortly after Liz Truss became Prime Minister and we saw a mini budget announced from then Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng which ultimately cost him his job, but also knocked the pound for six, dropping to a 1985 low against the Dollar at one point.

We in fact had three Prime Ministers and four Finance ministers over the year, not a recipe for certainty and stability.

On top of this, the Bank of England have been fairly slow to act on raising interest rates in comparison to other Central Banks around the world, we are still yet to see if this move will pay off now that inflation is expected to start to come down, however what that has done is led to a flow of money out of the pound and into more rewarding currencies, such as the USD where the Federal Reserve have been aggressive in their interest rate hikes, thus making their currency more attractive to investors looking for a great return.

What will 2023 bring?

There is no getting away from the fact that 2023 will be a tough year for many and that the UK will likely be in recession for most if not the whole year, however it is also important to remember that the UK is not alone with this problem.

Equally the same can be said for inflation issues, cost of living, energy prices and the prospect of Covid poking its nose back into daily life more aggressively once again, virtually the whole world has these issues, the key will really be how they are dealt with and who can bounce back the quickest.

I would hope that this year the UK can avoid the political turmoil seen over a number of months in 2022, political certainty is one of the key drivers for the performance of a currency and there is absolutely no doubt the circus act that played out earlier in the year from Boris to Liz to Kwasi with many smaller parts played as well will have done nothing but hurt the pound and I still don’t believe it has truly recovered internationally because of this.

Investors however do seem to feel that Sunak and Hunt are a safer pair of hands, so should they avoid any drama in the coming year this should settle the pound a little and I believe this would give Sterling exchange rates the chance of a better year.

In terms of the economic issues that we are facing I would be a fool to say there won’t be moments throughout 2023 that will cause nerves for investors and speculators when it comes to the Pound.

We clearly will have a squeeze on everything, the person on the street already has less in their pocket and that seems like it may only continue, this will in turn hit retailers and could cause a domino effect on the UK’s economic performance as a whole.

Many may not have felt the interest rate squeeze on their mortgage yet but there will be a lot of renewals coming up in 2023 which could cause further issues for households and house prices as a whole are expected to come down.

Bills on the whole for everyone are going up whether it is heating your home, filling up your car or getting your weekly shop everything is becoming tougher and there are many in the UK that are struggling already, so I feel the first few months of 2023 could continue to be a tough period for sterling exchange rates, as it is unlikely consumers will be flying out of the traps to spend in early 2023 if anything it could be time to batten down the hatches and to get to Spring.

From Spring onwards it wouldn’t surprise me to see people out spending again, if only a little. Heating will be going off, that British attitude of keep calm and carry on will likely play its part and I would hope that 6 months of political stability might start to draw investors back in.

Despite the challenges the UK faces as a whole there is a huge amount going for it. During and after the last big recession in 2008 the UK bounced back considerably well and outpaced all other members of the G7, so it does show that historically the UK can bounce back and bounce back well, so this will all being well give investors confidence to look to the pound, especially whilst it is what could be deemed undervalued and it would not surprise me to start seeing investors position themselves for a Sterling recovery later in the year.

Morgan Stanley recently published that they believe the pound would be in their top ten surprises of 2023 and expect Sterling strength, you can find many other economists arguing the opposite but I tend to agree with Morgan Stanley on this one.

My expectations are of a fairly bleak and challenging winter further pushing the pound only to see a recovery as the year progress, albeit it is really hard to know for sure what is around the corner in the currency markets, this is where I feel things could pan out for the pound in 2023.

Currency exchange to carry out in 2023?

Do you have a large currency exchange to make in 2023, for your business or buying/selling an overseas property?

Do you move money regularly and have you not compared rates and service recently?

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we have been helping clients move money internationally for over 20 years, we pride ourselves on the very highest level of customer service and it goes without saying our rates are highly competitive against banks, brokers and the self service apps.

Feel free to contact us directly on [email protected] should you wish to find out a little more about how we can help you, or if you would like access to our trading team who can discuss an individual situation you have and to directly tailor or research from multiple analysts on how the market may move for you, so that you can maximise your money.

If you simply would like to request a quote to see how we compare against your current choice to move money then this can be done by clicking this link and we will be in touch in due course.

I wish you all a Happy New Year and a fantastic 2023.

Will the Pound to Euro improve this month?

Pound Euro rate improves over 2 week period

The Pound Euro rate has now improved after the mini-budget disaster almost two weeks ago caused chaos for Sterling.

The Pound Euro rate was trading above 1.15 for a brief period of time earlier this week before slowing losing some of its recent gains.

The Chancellor said on Monday that he wants to boost growth as well as cutting taxes.

With parliament due to return on 11th October we could see further movements for GBPEUR rates depending on the reaction.

The new fiscal plan is due to be announced on 23rd November. Hopefully, after some review by the Office for Budget Responsibility we could some calming of the markets later next month.

Bank of England and interest rates

The Bank of England had its hand forced by the mini-budget which meant that it had to support pension funds who were at risk following the statement made by the Chancellor.

The Bank of England are expected to keep raising interest rates for the foreseeable future in order to combat inflation which has been hitting close to 10% recently.

The target for inflation is 2% so the typical way of reducing inflation is to raise interest rates.

However, as inflation has been caused by the pandemic as well as the issues in Ukraine it will be difficult to see inflation come down as quickly as the central bank would like.

The mortgage market in the UK also came under a lot of pressure with many mortgages being pulled off the market.

This has caused problems for lots of borrowers at a time when energy prices are also rising.

Tomorrow Bank of England member David Ramsden will be speaking so keep a watch out for his comments.

This may provide further insight as to what is happening with policy and therefore GBPEUR rates.

If you would like a free quote when sending Euros then please contact me directly Tom Holian [email protected]

 

 

Pound starts to recover against the Euro

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead June 26th 

The pound managed a surprising recovery during the week to the 10th February, against the Euro the pound managed to climb 1 ¾ cents from the week opening to the week close (1.1160- 1.1330). Against the Dollar the pound managed to claw back a similar amount with the week high topping out just under the 1.22 handle.

As previously mentioned in these reports, the week prior saw a heavyweight clash from the 3 central banks, where the doubt was cast over the future of the Bank of England’s rate hiking cycle.

It appears the bank are in their ‘sunset’ phase with one more 25 basis point rise heavily tipped in next months meeting. Thus causing the pound to weaken.

Looking ahead the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is due to present his Spring Budget on the 15th March, he has given assurances to the market he will not be pulling any rabbits from the hat next month given the need to reduce inflation.

A point worth noting is the Banks meeting is not until the week after (23rd) last time after the Truss/Kwarteng saga the bank were forced to act on emergency bailout measures to put a floor under Sterling.

Friday saw the latest round of GDP numbers out for the UK. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the a monetary measure of the value of all goods and services produced by a country in a specific timeframe. It is one of the key indicators of Economic growth.

December’s reading came out at 0.5% which was deeper than the forecasted 0.3%. On Friday the reading came out that the economy grew 0% in the final quarter of the year, meaning the UK avoided a technical recession by the smallest of margins.

Remember for an official recession, there needs to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Nevertheless, 0% growth is not something to shout about, the data only highlights what many market analysts have mentioned around the difficulty the UK economic is expected to face in 2023. GDP in 2022 increased by 4% in the UK, down sharply from the 7.6% increase in 2021.

The pounds gains throughout the week were down to an unwinding in last week’s sharp selloff where the pound was ‘shorted’ across the money markets.

In addition, a slight shift in global investor sentiment after softer US data and communication from the Federal reserve members.

The Euro trended lower throughout the week as support for the single currency was dented by economic data.

Retail sales in the euro zone fell by 2.7% in December, lower than the 2.5% forecast. This is the biggest decline since April 2021.

On Tuesday German industrial production came in at -3.1% another heavy blow for the Euro. However, some more positive inflation data came out on Thursday as inflation dipped to 9.2% in January. Down from the 9.6% recorded in December.

This has also raised fears that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to alter their recent hawkish tone around rate hikes.

The Eurozone has benefitted heavily from falling gas prices, with prices falling around 85% from the highs recorded in August amid lower demands thanks to a above average winter temperature across the bloc. Out look across the Eurozone has improved vastly from 3 months ago when the situation looked a lot more difficult than now.

Analysts on wall street feel the bloc is far from being in the clear as they predict a shallow recession will materialise later this year. Eyes will be focused on how economic data records in the coming months, any weakness could cap the Euros upside potential.

This upside potential and greater outlook for the Euro has been remarkable, at the start of November EUR/USD was trading around 0.97.

Today EUR/USD is trading around the 1.07 handle but has peaked as high as 1.10 at the start of this month.

As EUR/USD is the largest traded pair globally it can often suffer at the hands of booming US data releases such as the latest round of Non farm Payroll data where the Euro lost 1.5 cent on the days trading due to the positive data set.

The dollar wavered through the past week where it was intermittently bolstered by a shifting market mood.

Concerns over the Chinese Spy balloon caused initial support for the safe haven dollar on Monday.

The support didn’t last long as the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave a Dovish speech.

Powell avoided any clear indications on the banks forward planning with just one short statement on the matter, ‘ the disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun’.

Wednesday saw a rally for the greenback after hawkish comments from Fed governor Lisa Cook who said that ‘the bank are determined to bring inflation down to target, I think we are not done with raising interest rates’.

US employment data remained historically low on Thursday, further supporting the dollar.

Global market sentiment deteriorated towards the end of the week with the Dow Jones (0.17%) and Nasdaq 100 (2.47%) both down and the FTSE falling by 0.24%.

The markets haver again began to realign themselves to what the federal reserve are planning to do with rates.

There are some suggestions traders are starting to price out US rate cuts by the end of the year following the strong Nonfarm data.

Keep a close eye on US CPI data this week, it is estimated to clock in at 6.2% down from the previous 6.5%. Any variation could cause volatility on the currency markets.

Market data this week-

UK

Mon- Average Earnings data, claimant count and unemployment rate

Tues – CPI data & Retail price index

Fri- Retail sales

Eurozone 

Tues GDP Q4

Weds Industrial production.

US

Tues- CPI data

Weds- Retail sales

Thurs- Building permits, Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Survey

For further information or a free quote reach out to me directly Tom Holian [email protected]

Negative growth puts further pressure on the pound

GBP to EUR Forecast: Will Sterling See Further Losses Against the Euro?

Negative growth puts further pressure on the pound

The pound has had a negative start to the week losing ground against the euro, dollar, and a basket of other major currencies. The Bank of England’s latest interest rate hike did little to support the value of the pound. Sterling lost value against the euro and dollar almost immediately after the banks statement, a week ago today. Downward pressure on the pound was further fueled by the European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50-basis points an hour later.

Towards the end of last week’s data heavy session, we saw the release of services and manufacturing PMI data from the UK. The UK data was a mixed bag with positive news that the services industry is no longer contracting; however, the manufacturing data was worse than expected coming in at 44.7 vs expectations of 48.5.

Retail sales data didn’t paint a pretty picture for the UK either. Month-on-month sales are down -0.4% worse than expectations of -0.3%. Year-on-year sales are down -5.9% vs expectations of -5.6%.

This week’s session has been less data heavy but the negative sentiment surrounding the pound has continued to push exchange rates lower. Growth figures released earlier this morning show UK GDP shrunk in the last quarter by -0.3% vs expectations of -0.2%. The data supports the forecast that the UK economy will fall into a technical recession early next year.

Year-on-year GDP is positive but lower than expectations of 2.4% coming in at 1.9%. The negative data has pushed the pound lower against the euro and is now trading within range of the 2-month low.

For clients looking to sell euros and buy sterling, the rate reversal may pose a window of opportunity. €100,000 is buying £2200 more vs the low of the last 2-months.

We have several tools available at Lumon to help you minimise currency risk, via market orders, forward contracts and rate alerts.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept informed of developments, please feel free to contact me directly on [email protected].

Sterling improves following NIESR report – where will the pound go next?

Sterling improves following NIESR report – where will the pound go next?

The pound enjoyed a more positive session yesterday following the release of the NIESR’s (National Institute of economic and social research) economic forecast for the UK in 2023. Their research contradicts the predictions that have come from the Bank of England for a lengthy recession and forecasts that the UK will avoid a technical recession in 2023.

Sterling was buoyed by the news which moved GBPEUR to a 7-day high, raising the rate from the 4-month low of 1.1135 seen on Friday afternoon. Cable (GBPUSD) also showed signs of improvement following a tough start to the week.

The dollar gained ground across the board following the Federal reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday with many expecting the Fed to begin ending their current rate hike cycle, however, positive jobs (non-farm payroll) data released on Friday has increased the probability of US interest rates moving higher than expectations. A strong reading of US CPI data next Tuesday will fuel the expectations of further rises and could support the greenback in the near-term.

A transfer of £200,000 is buying €2800 more vs the low last week, which may present a window of opportunity for sterling sellers that expect the negative rhetoric surrounding the UK to continue moving forward.

Economic data is light from the UK today, however, at 09:45, governor of the Bank Andrew Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill will be questioned by parliaments treasury select committee. MP’s will ask ‘is the Bank of England behind the curve on inflation?’ and what further measures will they take in order to combat the current economic crisis. Comments surrounding the economic outlook and future interest rate policy could provide volatility for sterling exchange rates.

Tomorrow morning is key for UK economic data with GDP, industrial production and manufacturing production all being released at 7am. The GDP reading could be a significant driver for sterling exchange rates moving forward. A negative reading would support the BoE’s forecast for a recession where a positive reading would support the NIESR’s report.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with developments, please feel free to contact me directly on [email protected].

We have several tools available at Lumon that can help minimise your currency risk.

Pound at its lowest against the Euro in 19 months, and 37 years against the US dollar !

The pound is notably weaker today following the release of the latest UK Retail Sales numbers showing a surprise fall of 1.6%, which makes the economic slowdown anticipated, and likely recession ahead seem much worse than thought for Britain.

As I write, GBPEUR levels have dropped to a 19-month low, with the day low at the time of writing 1.1399 on GBPEUR and 1.1350 on GBPUSD. The cable level is a 37-year low, the worst for sterling since 1985 against the US dollar. I am often asked if it is a good time today to buy or sell, today appears to be a very good day to buy the pound if you are selling US dollars or Euros, it can easily be argued.

Any sense of calm and peace we had seen following Liz Truss’ announcement over an energy price freeze recently has ultimately proved short-lived. As a matter of fact, with the weekend approaching and a very busy week next week, we could be in for a turbulent time once again for sterling, particularly with financial markets closed on Monday for Her Majesty’s funeral.

This means there is less time for markets to digest news, and it increases the urgency of decisions, knowing that time is short. Next week is a crucial week with the latest Bank of England and US Federal Reserve Interest Rate decisions, plus Liz Truss’ mini budget that could very easily shape sentiment ahead for the pound.

Going back to today’s data, the British consumer is a major component of economic growth for the UK, so the poor numbers today are quite worrying for the economic outlook ahead. And this information seems highly likely to feed into any narrative by the Bank of England next week.

The Federal Reserve in the US will absolutely be one to watch too, as markets often follow the lead of the Fed, the expectation is for rising inflation stateside to trigger further sharp rises in interest rates, which may only serve to increase volatility as traders and market participants have to react to the ever-changing story on both sides of the pond.

If you are considering any FX payments shortly or longer term involving the pound, EUR, US dollar, or any other currency, now might be a good time to assess your strategy following these latest developments and with so much out there globally to move the FX markets.

For a more detailed discussion of your requirements, please call or email me directly on [email protected] for a one-to-one over what might be best.

You can also set rate alerts, sign up for our daily rates email or request a quote via this site.

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