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GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD boosted from Supreme Court decision (Joshua Privett)

By
Daniel Wright
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After a long-awaited ruling from the Supreme Court, global currency markets now know Parliament’s role in the Brexit, and we have seen this confidence imbued into the value of the Pound, with GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD all seeing a boost since yesterday morning.

However, for such a delayed result, the movements, though an improvement for Euro and Dollar buyers alike, was rather underwhelming… Initially exchange rates actually fell following this announcement with investors spooked at the lack of euphoria surrounding the Pound. But logic settled in and the Pound finished the day a few steps higher at close of play in the UK.

Overnight, further improvements were recorded with North American markets continuing to trade on the news.

So what next?

We have the framework established for the continued Brexit discussions, and markets have now priced in a stronger Pound because they believe that Parliament will delay Brexit proceedings, and reign in any extreme measures which may be on the table. Whatever your own views on the Brexit, it is best to remember that currency markets have shown time and time again their own nervousness concerning the Brexit, with frequent heavy drops in Sterling value since last June surrounding the issue.

Now the deciding factor will be how well will Theresa May work with her Parliament, and will she continue to operate with some degree of independence? After a heated debate in the House of Commons yesterday following the Supreme Court Decision, she is certainly in for a fight.

Therefore, if we take her previous actions as a model for her response, we can expect her to vigorously defend her aims to take the UK out of the single market, which is one of the main points of contention with Parliament.

Hardline language like this used in a Sky News interview a few Sundays ago cause the Pound to plummet against the Euro by 1.5%, against the Dollar by 2.8% and against the Australian Dollar by 2.4%. In this war of words risk is everywhere in a touchy market, with interviews and comments hitting the currency markets without much warning.

As such if you are planning to purchase AUD, USD, EUR, or even the Canadian Dollar since I have had increasing requests for help in this area recently, there are strong arguments to secure the recent gains made against your chosen currency pairing, as this risk of waiting quite clearly at this point outweighs the potential for further gains. The minor improvements in GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD are proof that Sterling is struggling to make much of an inroad against its currency counterparts.

It goes without saying that foreign currency sellers looking to buy Sterling are not facing the same rush, and opportunities are expected to present themselves in the short and medium term as we edge closer to Article 50. Though USD sellers will struggle for improvements in this current climate in the US.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also speak to me directly on the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception to speak with Joshua.

Tuesday to be a key day for economic data for a number of currencies (Daniel Wright)

By
Daniel Wright
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Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

Tuesday has great potential to be an extremely volatile day for the Pound against a number of major currencies, starting off overnight with Chinese and Australian data due out in a few hours which will no doubt have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The AUD has been sitting around the 2 mark for over a week now and data over the next 24-48 hours may finally be enough to push it through by more than the half a cent it has only been able to manage during its latest test of the resistance surrounding 2 it has met.

On Tuesday early morning we have Swiss unemployment rates released at 06:45am and any change to last months figure of 3.3% may have  impact on the Swiss Franc. Inflation figures for Switzerland follow shortly after this at 08:15am.

The U.K takes center stage next as we have trade balance figures at 09:30am and and inflation report hearing at 10:00am. The inflation report can sometimes have quite an impact on rates and I am sure that this occasion will not let us down. Personally I feel we may see comments on last months negative figure and the fact that the early Easter break may have led to this, obviously anything may happen but I feel Sterling may rise after this report.

Those with Euros to buy may not have much of a chance  as European GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures are also out at the same time and expectations are for 1% growth Year on year and 0.4% for the Quarter. Any release that differs to this could give the Euro a volatile morning.

We must not forget the on-going Greek saga either as there is still the chance that news regarding Greece may come out at any moment and depending on what it is may really move Euros exchange rates quite substantially.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving buying or selling either the Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Euro or Dollar and you want the very best rates of exchange, along with being kept up to date with market information then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk

The impact on currency of the Brexit vote (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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If you’re looking to either buy Euros or sell Euros then we could be in for one of the biggest events for years on the foreign exchange markets this week.

Many people are extremely concerned of what may happen when the UK votes on the EU referendum on Thursday and we should know the outcome by early Friday morning.

Having personally worked in the currency markets since 2003 I have worked during the credit crunch era, the Scottish referendum and the various general elections during this time but this week we could even bigger movements for GBPEUR rates compared to these previous events.

Over the last 3 weeks Sterling has come under huge pressure vs the Euro falling by as much as 7 cents from the high to the low. This has been caused by the uncertainty of the Brexit vote and the Leave campaign has certainly gained a lot of momentum during this time.

I have been writing these articles on this particular subject for some time now and I personally expect the UK to vote to Remain in the European Union and if so we could see the Pound recover some of these losses.

The various opinion polls have shown the Leave campaign in the lead but often when people want change they are more vocal about the subject and also the polls are relatively small compared to the many millions who will vote next week. Indeed, the polls for both the Scottish referendum and the general election were completely different to the eventual outcome.

However, what is crucial is how close the vote may be as if we see only a small minority in favour of staying in this could cause further uncertainty for Sterling as there is clearly an appetite for change with the UK’s relationship between the European Union.

For anyone worried about the potential outcome of the referendum there is always the option of buying a forward contract which means even if you don’t have the full amount of money available or don’t have to make a payment for a few months then you can fix your exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer due soon then contact me for a brief explanation of the process of how I can help you save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank.

I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Many Market Movers in May! Can sterling go higher?

By
Jonathan Watson
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GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

As we approach the halfway point of the month we see the pound holding some of the gains we have witnessed in April but still very much under pressure! Unfortunately there is very little on the horizon to indicate significant further gains this month. If you are selling pounds to buy another currency holding out for further gains could be very risky, current levels should not be easily dismissed. Here are some of the key thing to note if you are buying or selling which may affect your rate.

If you would like more information on a particular subject or on events surrounding your particular transfer please speak with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the UK leave the EU? Expect pressure on sterling due to political uncertainty. Markets and investors want certainty in their investments. Fears of the damage a split Tory government, the rise of UKIP and a broken coalition would do to UK business weighed on sterling yesterday. Can Cameron tackle the ghost of conservative past and deal with the question of Europe? It is doubtful I have to say and this will weigh down the pound.

UK Growth Last months data was impressive and welcome but 0.3% is not anything to get too excited about. True the latest data sets have all been positive but the marginal improvements on what were dire figures still have a long way to go. Ultimately the UK’s stagnant housing market (particularly outside London) needs invigorating – Construction is the main drag in recent years. The second revision of growth figures at the end of the month could easily be a market mover.

Depending on which currency pair you are trading there will of course be many other things to move the market. Looking in my crystal ball (which has been pretty clear lately) I cannot see significant gains for GBP against the majors. Maybe a cent or two? Once again I see more danger of things dropping as the confidence of the last few weeks wears off.

If you have a transaction to consider I would be interested to speak to you explain the market and offer our services with a view to getting you the best deal. For more information please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you!

GBP/EUR Alert – Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

By
Jonathan Watson
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Pound ends the week on a high vs the euro

The pound could be in for some severely testing times as the latest Parliamentary vote on Brexit approaches next week. Whilst last night the Government was defeated on a Finance Bill which should help prevent a no-deal Brexit, the pound could still be in for some volatile sessions ahead.

No-deal Brexit deemed too disruptive to UK economy

The British Government is planning for a no-deal Brexit but many in Parliament have said they will do everything in their power to stop a no-deal, for fear it will be too disruptive for the UK economy.

There is an expectation the deal will not get through in the vote on Tuesday. This could see sterling much lower as the market is forced to decide on what the likely outcomes are in the future. These include a General Election and also a second EU Referendum.

Assuming the vote does not get passed, it is difficult to see how the pound will not have a good day. In December, the postponing of the vote saw the pound losing ground as investors lost faith in the UK and the currency. The only way I can see sterling having a good day, is if the Bill is passed which seems highly unlikely.

Increased political uncertainty is negative for the Euro

The Euro is under pressure too and if it wasn’t for sterling being in such a quagmire, the pound would probably be doing much better against the single currency. Expectations for the Euro are still rather mixed, increased political uncertainty in the Eurozone may see the currency softer as investors await further news on economic news.

Yesterday, the German economy was in the spotlight highlighting the fears of either a German recession, or worse a Eurozone recession. German Manufacturing activity showed a decline which could be something of concern for the future. However, despite concerns in the Eurozone, the Euro continues to defy expectations and find buoyancy against the pound.

I expect the pound could be in for a few excessively volatile trading sessions in the coming weeks. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro might wish to take stock of the major movements we might expect.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my GBP/EUR forecast please use the form below to send me a message:


GBP/EUR back above 1.25, GBP/USD above 1.62 and GBP/AUD stable at 1.55. Forecast for GBP/UER, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD

By
Daniel Wright
-
Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

Sterling exchange rates have regained some ground against the Euro towards the tail end of this week peaking above the 1.25 level this morning following a fall to 1.235o mid week. What now for the short term projections for GBP/EUR? The good news for Euro buyers is that even following a relatively downbeat assessment of the UK economy from Bank of England Chairman Mervyn King, however his assessment of the global economy was also negative warning that he felt the euro zone could still fall apart. First signs of the UK’s struggle to get throught his recession were expected to be shown with this morning, and indeen the UK’s public net sector borrowing figures have widened giving concern the government will not reach its debt reduction targets, howveer tjis has done little to GBP/EUR thsi morning. This is probably as a news comes that Spain may soon move to request further aid and the feel good factor behind the Euro bond buying programme announced by Mario Draghi may already be subsiding. I personally can see a little more upside for GBP/EUR and see a move back towards 1.26, however I think the short term gains may well be curbed as I believee teh Bank fo England are likley to implement further monetary stimulus in the months to come.

Best rates for the USD

GBP exchange rates are close to a 52 week high against the USD offering some attractive opportunities. However, as with GBP/EUR, I believe trends are likley to be in favour of the pound in the coming weeks. I personally see a move towards 1.64 as the prospect of QE3 in the US becomes a likley reality, more so than in the UK it would seem. The only hinderence for US dollar buyers could be a fall in risk apetite should negative sentiment return to the euro zone. Should Spain request aid I would expect a flight to safety and a move from risker currencies to the relative safety of the US dollar, something that I feel will be inevitable in the longer term. I would expect a slight upturn towards 1.63/64 in the next few days and weeks, however longer term I believe a retrace below 1.60 as problems in Europe are likley to curb dollar losses.

Moving money to AUD

With falling commodity prices, fall in growth from China, and the prospect of falling interest rates and a looming recession in Australia the value of the Aussie has been on somewhat of a downward spiral. In fact moves have been good for those buying AUD (we have seen a shift of nearly 6% since the beginning of August for GBP/AUD), and this to me should represnt a good buy opportunity. I personally think we are reaching a peak for short term moves against the AUD, and with the prospect of further QE in the UK it could be time time for you to take advantage.

To discuss my market views and the potential implications for your currency transfer please feel free to contact me direct. As part of the service I will be happy to run through the various contracts we can offer and how we can save you money on your currency exchange. Should you prefer to speak over the phone then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

Sterling Exchange Rates Fall from Recent Peak (James Lovick)

By
James Lovick
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The pound has fallen lower today after that excellent run last week which saw sterling surge across the board after the transitional deal in the Brexit negotiations was agreed. Rates for GBP EUR have fallen to a low of 1.1365 today whilst GBP USD touched 1.4066 before climbing higher in afternoon trade.

Whilst a transitional deal has been officially agreed between Britain and the EU, there are still some very big issues which need resolving. Whilst I am of the opinion these issues will be ironed out and agreement should eventually be made there is likely to be an ongoing period of uncertainty whilst the third round of negotiations take place. Talks on the Irish border started yesterday and any developments in the coming weeks coudfl see major volatility for the pound.

The outlook for the pound in the medium term is looking considerably brighter and there could be sizeable gains for sterling exchange rates if negotiations go well. It is in the short term in these coming weeks and months though which should see heightened volatility and continued pressure on the pound. Clients looking to sell Euros for example may wish to convert in this period whilst the pound remains in a weaker position. In my view the pound is unlikely to remain at these weaker levels indefinitely. With higher interest rates in the UK around the corner with an expected rate increase this May the pound should find support and start to drive higher.

Clients looking to buy other currencies such as US dollars or buying Australian dollars with pounds should keep a very close eye on developments from the US. Whilst the US Fed is looking to raise interest rates two or three times this year which should be good for the dollar it is the other developments on trade which are particularly interesting for the markets. The recent tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium as well as the other round of tariffs on imported goods are liked to have wider implications on a number of the other currencies including the Aussie dollar in particular.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and how to make the most of any opportunities in the markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro Rates at a 6 Year High!!! (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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Pound vs Dollar: Non-Farm Payroll to take centre stage today - potential volatility for the US Dollar

The uncertainty surrounding the issues with Greece keep coming as the Syriza party gained more popularity recently.

The party is itself anti EU & anti IMF bailout so if they get into power when elections are held on January 25th expect the Euro to experience a huge amount of weakness.

Indeed, if the Greeks do have a change in government this could open the flood gates for other countries which have been bailed out to turn their back on previous financial agreements.

One of the reasons why the Euro as a currency was brought about was to break down trade barriers and encourage countries to get along with Europe. However, if the Greeks decide to go back on their original agreement then expect uncertainty for the single currency.

The next ECB policy meeting will be on 22 January and with ECB President Mario Draghi suggesting that the ECB could introduce Quantitative Easing this led to the Euro falling against Sterling. With inflation on the continent so low it is only a matter of time before the ECB takes action.

EURUSD rates are the lowest since 2010 and I think we could see GBPEUR rates go higher during this month.

If you have a currency requirement to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling’s Struggles Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

By
Matthew Vassallo
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GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Sterling’s struggles have continued this week and despite a slight recovery against the USD, the general trend has certainly been negative. The downward spiral coincided with the start of 2016 and the Pound has failed to replicate the good feeling of last year and this has been reflected in the current exchange rates.

GBP/EUR rates have dropped below 1.30 today and as I’ve discussed in previous posts, this is a key resistance level for the Pound. If we see another aggressive move for the EUR the Pound may struggle to break back through it and whilst my underlying feeling has been that the Pound would start to find some support, the current trend is concerning for those clients holding GBP.

It is slightly better news for those clients looking to purchase USD, with the Pound fighting back over the past 48 hours. The pair is floating around 1.45 having spent most of last month closer to 1.40. Poor employment figures in the US have helped to stem the flow but based on the current economic climate in the UK, I am not anticipating this positive spike to continue. As we move through the year we may see Sterling improve, as the US elections are likely to cause some uncertainty and the hope for those clients holding GBP is that 1.40 will provide some protection if the rates do start to drop again.

Much of the focus this week has been on the UK and with key data releases yesterday, investors were dubbing it ‘Super Thursday’. Unfortunately it was anything but and the Pound suffered as a result. The Bank of England’s (BoE) UK Inflation Report made for grim reading and with BoE governor Mark Carney cutting growth forecasts in the UK, I’m not expecting a major improvement for Sterling in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro challenges 1.40 (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
-

If you are buying property in Europe then chances are that you’ve been closely watching the Sterling vs Euro and hoping for the right time to buy your currency.

With GBPEUR rates getting very close to hitting 1.40 during the last 2 days the markets are eagerly anticipating what is happening with the Greek issue which as I write is ongoing with no resolution in sight.

Sterling has had a very good week so far with the news that UK average earnings are the best in 4 years and the UK unemployment rate the bets since 2008 providing evidence that the UK economy is on the right track.

The real issue is that the Greek debt is 180% of their GDP which is extremely concerning and something which is not going to disappear overnight.

The Greeks have until the end of this month to pay the IMF a total of EUR1.6bn otherwise they risk defaulting.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

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