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Sterling hits record high against the US Dollar, but is trouble on the horizon? (Daniel Johnson)

By
Daniel Johnson
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Carillion to enter liquidation

Sterling has had a very impressive week against the US dollar hitting pre-Brexit vote highs of 1.38 yesterday. We have also seen GBP/EUR remain in the 1.12s despite the recent formation of a coalition government in Germany.

However things are not all rosy. Carillion, Britain’s second largest construction firm could go into liquidation which could cause thousands of job losses.The government has received criticism for awarding contracts despite knowing the company was in trouble. Carillion are currently working in public services schools including running prisons and schools, not to mention their involvement in HS2.

With Carillion’s links with other firms working on this project this could have a detrimental, wide spreading impact. There is also a huge amount of pension money tied up with the firm, let us hope it does not mimic the situation with BHS.

Phase Two of Brexit talks could create GBP weakness.

Phase Two of Brexit negotiations will still be the biggest factor in the Pound’s value. At present things do not bode well. Both parties are at loggerheads before talks even begin. Trade will be one of the most difficult issues to overcome and talks are expected to be far tougher than phase one. A target has been set for October to have negotiations completed , a target that I feel may well be extended. I think short to medium term the pound will remain under pressure. I am of the opinion a deal will eventually be struck however and Sterling will have the opportunity to have a significant rally. I would not expect this occur until late 2018.

If you have to move before this date it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker to keep you up to date with what is happening in the markets and to make sure you are aware of a any spikes in your favour.

If you have a currency requirement, I will be happy to assist personally. I will do my utmost to make sure you get the highest return on your trade. I am also in a position where I can confidently say I am in a position to beat any Bank or competitor’s rate of exchange and would be happy to perform a comparison to demonstrate this. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm registered with the FCA and one that has been trading in excess of 16yrs, you can trade in safety.  If you would like my help I can be contacted at [email protected]. Thank you for reading.

Sterling continues to gain against the Euro, US Dollar & Aussie Dollar. Next week could be volatile so it may be wise to secure your funds before the middle of next week. (Ben Amrany)

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

The pound has had a very solid week with gains against the Euro, US Dollar, CAD, & AUD.

Sterling actually started off the week with losses after UK inflation showed a decline but then a Speech by Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney helped sterling recover its losses. We then saw unemployment in the UK continue to fall and this caused the markets to bring forward their anticipation of an interest rate hike from 2015 to late 2014 giving the pound a further boost.

US Dollar buyers and seller

Yesterday over in the US Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen gave her support for the much debated quantitative easing. This suggested that if she becomes chairperson tapering may not be on the cards straight away causing Dollar weakness and representing good buying opportunities. Sterling strengthened to highs today of 1.6130 against the USD. For more information on the USD or how to get the best rates feel free to email me at [email protected]

Euro Buyers and sellers

Sterling against the Euro has once again strengthened from a low this week of 1.1820 back up to 1.1950. The recent interest rate cut in Europe caused the Euro to significantly weaken sending GBP/EUR to a high of 1.2040. As soon as it breached 1.20 though it quickly weakened as the 1.20 barrier seems to be a very hard resistance level to get through and then most importantly stay above.

With the surprise cut in rates in the single currency area I would have expected to have seen a much bigger gain for the pound. It is a little concerning that this did not happen for the pound. It probably goes to show though that with hard times still ahead for Europe the pound will struggle due to our ties with the Euro zone. I would recommend that clients looking at buying the Euro capitalise while the market is above the yearly average of 1.17 as a dip can occur at any time. 

With the Bank of England minutes being next weeks major key data release for the UK the tones from the Bank of England with how many members voted for a rate hike or QE rise will determine the movements for the rest of the week.

The BoE may not be keen that the pound has strengthened so much against the Euro and could easily go some way to look at weakening the pound with this release. I would still not expect the pound to fall below 1.18 though. With lots of  key data from Germany out next week I feel that GBP/EUR will have a fairly volatile end to the week. If you are looking to capitalise on the gains my recommendation would be to look at trading before the Minutes are out on Wednesday morning. For more information relating to your options with the GBP/EUR feel free to email me at [email protected] and I will explain all the options available to you when buying or selling the Euro. 

Australian Dollar buyers and sellers

The Australian Dollar has been on a roller coaster ride of late most notable against the UK pound. The pound has spiked back up to 1.7250 against the AUD this week. This is around a three year high and well above the average of 1.59 for the year.

The next resistance level for GBP/AUD being 1.73 with a push to 1.74. We could see this level breached over the next week or so when the RBA release their minutes from their last interest rate decision on Monday evening UK and Tuesday down under.

The RBA have recently been vocal about how their exchange rate has been hurting their exports and would like to see the AUD weaken further. So it will be interesting to see if any comments from the minutes go someway to weaken the rates further.

The Bank of England release their minutes from the last interest rate decision next Wednesday too so those looking at buying Aussie Dollars could see further gains early next week. With rates hovering around a 3 year high trading in the near future represents good buying opportunities and levels above 1.70 should be achievable. If we reach 1.7350/1.74 I think we will meet resistance and this should be taken advantage of. 

If you require buying or selling any of the major currencies then I am here to assist you in achieving a better rate than high street banks. Savings can be up to 4% and the level of service is second to none giving you all the information needed to help you judge when is a good time to buy your currency.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at [email protected]

Dollar Strength Expected this Week (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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With an extremely eventful week for the US Dollar this week with an almost 2% weakening on Thursday against Sterling things seem to have settled down a little. Sterling US Dollar which touched 1.57 last week has now retracted to the mid range of 1.55. The US Non-farm payrolls which were released on Friday afternoon were slightly better than than expected which has seen the Dollar strengthen and have a more negative impact on more riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD & ZAR.

Borrowing also increased in the US which has seen more spending and therefore longer term growth prospects better for the US which in turn you would expect more USD strength also in the long term so if you need to sell US Dollars it may be worth holding off for a while. If on the other hand you need to buy US Dollars you may wish to move sooner rather than later and take advantage of this unexpected rise against the US Dollar from last week before it starts to strengthens again.

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates
If you are thinking of making a Euro transfer then many are waiting to see if Interbank levels hit 1.18 this week. With only a small percentage rise needed I think we’re only a very  short time away before the chance to buy Euros at a slightly higher rate is available. On Tuesday the UK has two important announcement regarding industrial production and manufacturing data so if you’re considering making a currency transfer and want to save money when buying or selling Euros feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian [email protected]  

Pound vs euro forecast: Will the pound continue to fall against the euro?

By
Dayle Littlejohn
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A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

In today’s pound vs euro forecast we look at the events that could affect exchange rates in the short-term. Over the last 2 weeks pound vs euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates have plummeted 3 cents. For clients buying property abroad this movement makes a €200,000 purchase £4,600 more expensive.

Vote of no confidence holding back the pound

The reason for the decline is because Theresa May’s Conservative Party are not backing the Prime Minister’s Brexit plan. Over the last 7 days reports have emerged that a vote of no confidence could be on the horizon, however to date this hasn’t materialized. I expect this story to be back in mainstream media next week.

My reasoning for my calls of a vote of no confidence is that Theresa May will travel back to Brussels on Saturday for last minute Brexit talks before the planned emergency EU Summit on Sunday. If its the case that Theresa May makes last minute concessions that could be the final straw, which could force a leadership contest.

In addition German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the media that if a deal is not struck before the Summit she will boycott the meeting. This could have major repercussions on the UK and consequently pound vs euro rates. Her reasoning is that she does not want Theresa May to try to negotiate eleventh hour concessions and she also wants to put a stop to the debate between European Governments in regards to fishing rights.

The next couple of days could be key for pound vs euro exchange rates in the months to come. If it’s the case that the summit is cancelled, I believe the UK PM is treading a fine line and her days could be numbered. Ultimately the UK have had 2 years to agree a deal and leaving it until the final hour could become extremely costly for the UK, the pound and the Prime Minister.

Buying euros

For clients that are buying euros in the upcoming months, it’s important to understand that major fluctuations should be expected. If the UK and EU fail to come to an agreement, I don’t believe both parties will allow a ‘no deal’, therefore I believe it will be back to the negotiating table but before that there will be a leadership contest and worse case scenario a General Election.

For more information on pound vs euro rates or how Brexit could impact your currency exchange and to find out live buying prices from currencies.co.uk feel free to get in contact. You can send me a message directly using the form below:


Anticipation Builds Ahead of Key Date for UK Economy (Matthew Vassallo)

By
Matthew Vassallo
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Thursday should be a key fixture in the diary of anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, as this is when the latest set of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be released. These will determine whether the UK economy has fallen back into official recession and whilst these figures could well be revised in the coming months, the initial market reaction will most likely mirror the result.

Personally I cannot see GBP gaining much momentum even if we do avoid recession, although there will be an element of market confidence returning to the Pound and it should stabilize. If we do in fact find ourselves back in a recession then the Pound will struggle to make any serious inroads against the major currencies and provided the Eurozone doesn’t throw up any nasty surprises (something which sounds unlikely given the recent history), then we are likely to see Sterling move back towards 1.14.

The EUR has tried to strengthen recently amid this on-going negativity but is constantly hampered by its own economic problems, which are prevalent and deep rooted throughout the Eurozone economy. It is almost a guarantee that we will hear of further unrest, whether it be in Cyprus or one of the larger nations such as Spain, France or Italy (just take note of the on-going political debacle and lack of a cohesive government). All of these nations have the ability to spark a further financial crisis should their economies collapse and unfortunately at times the Eurozone seems as if it is held together by nothing more than empty promises and increasingly harsh austerity measures.

GBP/USD rates have levelled out slightly recently although the USD continues to hold firm against the Pound, despite a small fight back from GBP recently. Despite the recent worse than expected non farms payroll data, the US economy does seem to be moving in the right direction and it is likely that we will see continued USD strength throughout Q2 of this year. I feel GBP will struggle to break back through 1.55 anytime soon, although a move back under 1.50 is now unlikely based on historical data.

The NZD continues to look strong against GBP with rates hovering around 1.80 for some time now. Many clients looking to purchase NZD will more than likely have been holding out for a move back towards 1.90, or maybe even 2 but personally I feel even 1.90 may be an unrealistic target, especially in the short to medium-term.

With the UK on the verge of a further recession and the NZD buoyed by a strong AUD and strong exports, it is likely we will see GBP/NZD range bound between 1.78-1.85 over the coming weeks.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at [email protected].

Events that could affect the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

By
Daniel Johnson
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Pound to Euro Outlook: Will GBP/EUR rise back above 1.10?

GBP/EUR – Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

French Election impact on GBP/EUR

Macron is now clear favourite following the first round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, is a huge threat to the Euro with plans to ditch the single currency altogether. She has also stated her intention to hold a referendum in a bid to leave the EU. If she was to gain power expect the Euro to plummet in value.

The market moves on rumour as well as fact and I am of the opinion that a Macron victory is already factored into current GBP/EUR buoyancy levels, I think that if Macron does gain power there would be a slight improvement in Euro value, but nothing significant.

UK Election effect on the Pound

I think the UK election will be a very similar scenario to the French election. Theresa May has pulled a very shrewd move by calling an election while competition is so weak, a move Sun Tzu would be proud of. Usually, a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken, but on this occasion Sterling strengthened upon the announcement due to the conservatives being so far in front in the polls. This is seen as a positive for the UK economy which caused an increase in investor confidence. I think if Theresa May gains power I would expect a small movement in Sterling favour, but nothing significant.

Is 1.20 a resistance point?

We have seen GBP/EUR get very close to 1.20 in the last six months only for the market to readjust, last week it hit 1.1994. If you have a Euro requirement short to medium term it is important to keep this in mind rather than having too optimistic a target.

GBP/AUD – Pound to Australian Dollar rate forecast

GBP/AUD 7 month high

It is looking tempting for Australian Dollar buyers as present. We are witnessing a seven month high. I think there is potential for further gains for Sterling however due to the housing bubble down under and Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese. Data from china has been poor of late and has contributed to a weakening Aussie. Your time scale will be crucial in timing your trade.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to get in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile times. If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally.

If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and timescale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at [email protected]. Thank you for reading my blog.

Feel free to take a look at our UK election guide here.

US interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

By
Dayle Littlejohn
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GBP USD Picks Itself Up Off the Floor

This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.

If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.

As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.

Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront. 

If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive.  Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is [email protected] and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

Sterling Euro rates hit lowest point since November (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
-
GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to tumble during the week with GBPEUR rates now at their lowest point to buy Euros since early November 2016.

The Pound has also fallen against all major currencies with big losses seen vs the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar.

The Pound has struggled as it appears, at least for the moment, that we could be facing a hard Brexit which means we may not necessarily remain in the single market which has sent shockwaves through the currency markets and therefore Sterling has fallen.

Personal debt per household has continued to rise and this means that with inflation also set to rise it may be difficult for the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the future as this could cause further problems and this has resulted in weakness for the Pound.

Indeed, Bank of England member Andy Haldane went on to say ‘interest rates are still very low, and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future.’

On the continent the Eurozone’s leading economy Germany has announced strong economic data in the form of GDP which came out at 1.9% for 2016 which was better than expected.

As the Eurozone’s strongest economy this has led to the Euro strengthening against the Pound creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Next week Prime Minister Theresa May is set to address the nation on Tuesday and hopefully we will have the announcement of the recent Supreme Court judgement coming soon.

However, MPs have been explicit in that they want Theresa May to clarify her position with regards the single market before any Brexit talks can begin.

With the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit I feel there are further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as well as other major currencies so if you need to send money abroad in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also able with my experience to help you with the timing of your transfer.

To find out more or if you’d like a free quote when buying or selling currency then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

 

 

Eagerly anticipated Eurozone summit put on hold (Dayle Littlejohn)

By
Dayle Littlejohn
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GBP USD Exchange Rate Slides after GDP Data Shows British Economy Shrank in June 

It appears Eurozone ministers have given Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras more time. Towards the end of the trading week Tsipras should have submitted his final proposals for Eurozone ministers to discuss. However the summit was cancelled and Mr Tsipras instead met German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and EU President Donald Tusk to continue negotiations.

It appears Mr Tsipras is now on the back foot, the new proposed list of austerity measures, in order to secure the bailout, are many of which had been rejected by the Greek people. I believe Mr Tsipras has been bluffing all along and will do what it takes to remain in the Euro because of this I expect a deal will be struck over the next week.

For clients looking to buy Euros in the 6 months I would lock into a forward contract and secure today’s rates. On the other hand if I were selling Euros I would closely watch the Greece story and trade once a deal is struck!

Janet Yellen indicates a rate hike (GBP/USD)

On Friday Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen confirmed that the FED is likely to start raising interest rates this year, as long as the US job market improves. For clients buying or selling the dollar over the next year it’s important to look out for non-farm pay roll figures released usually on the first Friday of every month. If the monthly figure regularly exceeds the forecast I expect Yellen to raise interest rates towards the end of the year or early 2016. If a rate hike occurs for the US rates could drop back towards the 1.40s.

Short-term cable clients should watch the Greece story closely. If Greece leaves the euro I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors pull money out of the euro and invest in the dollar, a ‘safe haven’ currency (GBP/USD exchange rates to drop). However if Greece stays I would expect investors to invest in the euro taking money out of the dollar (GBP/USD exchange rates to rise).

If you looking to trade sterling and want further forecasts or looking for award winning exchange rates feel free to email me directly [email protected].

 

 

 

 

Why has Sterling Fallen against the Euro & Dollar? (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
-
GBP USD Exchange Rate Falls Amid Murky Economic Backdrop

GBPEUR exchange rates and GBPUSD exchange rates took a turn for the worse yesterday following the news delivered in the Autumn Statement. The UK’s growth forecast has been raised up for both the end of this year and next year but revised figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that UKGDP dropped by 7.2% during 2008-2009 and not 6.3% a previously estimated. This saw Sterling’s confidence fall against the Euro in particular and later in the day we saw falls against the Dollar as US GDP came out higher than expected.

US GDP was measured at 3.6% in the third quarter of this year higher than estimates of 2.8%. This growth rate was the best since the first quarter of last year and shows signs that the US recovery is fully under way and their continued use of QE has seemingly worked albeit for the time being. The Fed next meet on December 17th-18th and QE will most likely be on the agenda. IF we see any tapering we could see GBPUSD rates drop below 1.60 both in the lead up to the announcement and straight after. With GBPUSD rates hitting their highest level in 4 years earlier this week the Dollar fought back quickly after this data release.

With the Bank of England and ECB deciding to keep interest rates on hold this gave the Euro some strength as there have been hints that the UK economy could afford an interest rate increase and that the ECB has decided against cutting their cash rate to negative which saw some confidence pumped back into the single currency. Rates on mid-market hit 1.1940 after hitting 1.21+ during this week’s trading sessions.

Later toda the US releases its Non-Farm Payroll data which is often the biggest market mover as far as data is concerned so if you’re worried about the consequences this may have on your currency purchase then get in touch with me directly for a free quote Tom Holian [email protected] Having worked for one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokers for 11 years I’m confident of saving you money when buying your currency.

If you’re considering buying Australian Dollars soon then it may be worth taking advantage of current rates which are now close to 4 year highs for GBPAUD.

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