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Sterling Euro Exchange rates and impact of Greek Bailout (Tom Holian)

By
Tom Holian
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Sterling Euro exchange rates have once again broken through 1.41 during today’s trading session as fears increase of the Greeks defaulting today on their debt of EUR1.6bn due to the IMF.

There have been numerous meetings this month between the Greeks and Europe with no resolution so far provided.

However, this evening another proposal has been suggested but to me I think it’s a little too late and no deal will be concluded in order to satisfy today’s deadline.

I do think negotiations will carry on and a resolution will occur but over the next few days whilst the uncertainty continues I think we’ll see even higher exchange rates for Sterling vs Euro.

This evening the Greeks have asked for a loan of over EUR29bn until the end of 2017 to cover debt repayments.

However, this deal is likely to takes weeks to organise resulting in even more uncertainty for GBPEUR rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian [email protected]

 

 

 

Best time to buy euros?

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP EUR Edges Higher After Recent Rates Sell-Off

Over the last 24 hours markets have again swung wildly and without notice. The movement on GBPEUR has been in excess of 1% and the reason behind it was comments made by Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB.) He made a very strong statement saying that the Euro would survive and the ECB can do more than enough to save the euro from collapse.  These strong comment gave confidence to the euro which gained against most currencies. Again this, in my option, gave sellers out there another last chance to move away from the single currency.

Regular readers should now have a good understanding that Europe takes a long time to change anything, so these comments should only be a short term thing. Plus I don’t know if anyone has tried to do anything in Europe in August but well it is extremely difficult due to the month long rest everyone of power seems to take. Even the top guys in Germany are off for 3 weeks so I personally would not be surprised to see GBPEUR will push back up to around 1.29  within the next 3 weeks. So again a great time to sell euros currently, and for buyers of the euro out there I would hold off. I think this is just a short term spike rather than a long term change in the general good fortune of the pound against the euro recently.

Dates to keep an eye out for next week.

  • UK Consumer confidence
  • European Consumer Confidence
  • UK and European bond auctions
  • Interest rate decisions for the UK and Europe

Each of these are well potential to change rates by several percent, making property, invoices, bills, wages all worth less or cost more. If you would like assistance in trying to time your transfer at a high use our
pro-active service, either myself or a co-writer here are willing to help if you wish by putting a strategy together for your situation.

To discuss this, or anything else, contact us today by either calling 01494 787-478 and asking for me Steve Eakins or via emailing me directly at [email protected]

Bank of England minutes tomorrow and all eyes on GBP/AUD rates (Joshua privett)

By
Daniel Wright
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Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Overnight the minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show a mixed view of the current economic forecast for the Australian economy.

While they hinted that increased employment had ‘put a dent’ in the chances for another rate cut, this was balanced out by negative views on the current state of the world economy. As such the Australian Dollar is now lower once the minutes revealed developments in Greece and China would influence future rate decisions.

After such a morbid view, inflation data to be released tomorrow morning must be positive to stop a complete slide on Dollar value.

Today is a quiet day for data releases, so markets are looking to the release of Bank of England minutes and interest rate decisions.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that interest rates may rise at the turn of the year. This means we could see a change in the voting tally for raising rates tomorrow. This could bolster Sterling, yet the alternative (no change from the 0 out of 9 who voted for a rate hike last month) will do the opposite. It will show that Carney’s comments may be more bluster than concrete policy supported by the rest of the board, which could lead to Sterling weakness.

Call into the trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to discuss how to take advantage of a specific economic event. A number of tools are available to help you buy at the high, or buy before the rates fall back to far to prevent any losses. [email protected]

Trump to cause big swings on the Currency Market (Daniel Johnson)

By
Daniel Johnson
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GBP/EUR

Uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is the cause for the weak pound

The key factor in any GBP/EUR trade is Brexit and how trade negotiations will pan out.  The uncertainty surrounding trade deals is the fundamental reason behind Sterling weakness and I do feel the pound is currently undervalued. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday there would be no deal between Britain and the EU without EU parliament consent which could be problematic and elongate the process.

If we look over recent events it seems that when some element of certainty is restored we see Sterling rally as demonstrated by Theresa May’s hard Brexit speech, despite a hard Brexit being deemed as detrimental to the UK economy short-medium term.

Today we will see debate from parliament over the recent exit bill, which has caused controversy due to it’s rather brief size at just 130 words. It is going to be difficult due to it’s make up with little to go on other than time scale. If there are any amendments to the bill this will have bearing on GBP/EUR.

This morning will see Eurozone GDP followed by the head of the European Central Bank’s speech, Mario Draghi. GDP data will be watched keenly by traders as to whether Brexit is having an effect on the health of business within the Eurozone. Draghi’s speech is also worth listening to, if he gives any indication as to monetary policy going forward expect traders to have their fingers on the button.

GBP/USD

Trump sacks Attorney General – “My way or the high way”

Sally Yates has been sacked following her questioning of Trump’s controversial immigration plan to ban refugees from high risk countries entering the US for ninety days. This is a display of his rash decision making and I do not think this bodes well for the US dollar. Despite forward guidance from the Fed indicating there could be as many three rate hikes this year I think Trump could scupper their plans. A potential trade tariff for the Chinese, a wall, and a Muslim ban could hinder the Fed’s plans.

Nonfarm pay rolls

Nonfarm payrolls takes place on the first Friday of every month and historically causes high levels of volatility on the exchange. It is a measure of employment minus agriculture in the US and is key indicator as to the health of the US economy. It is extremely difficult to predict so be wary of trading during this release.

GBP/AUD – Trump to have influence on Australian Dollar

Trump could have a significant bearing on which way GBP/AUD is headed, if trade tariffs are placed on the Chinese this will have major implications on Australia due to Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese. If more rate hikes do materialise in the US it will become much more appealing to investors to choose the US dollar over the Australian Dollar in view of more safety and higher returns than previously available. Also keep in mind Australia is very close to losing it’s triple AAA rating.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to help. I specialise in property transfers, I can ensure you receive the most competitive rates (which I am prepared to demonstrate against any competitor) and I will also make sure the transfer goes through as smoothly as possible, taking the stress away from your purchase. You can trade in confidence knowing you are working with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct a firm in business for over sixteen years. Give me a brief idea of your requirement along with your time scale and I will endeavour to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance.

I can be contacted at [email protected].

Daniel Johnson

Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened and what may happen to the pound going forward? Sterling exchange rate news against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and South African Rand

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP EUR Edges Higher After Recent Rates Sell-Off

Good afternoon – Please find the latest news surrounding the Pound and what may happen going forward:

Sterling – Euro

The Pound has had a fairly stable week against the Euro.

Today could have created a great deal of volatility and there were some fairly swift exchange rate movements however head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi did not announce anything of any great significance during his press conference this afternoon and the bank of England kept everything as normal regarding interest rates and Quantitative Easing.

Tomorrow morning we have European Retail Sales figures out which you would imagine will not be great so we may see a small Euro buying opportunity in the morning.

Sterling – Dollar  

The Dollar is seemingly making a little fight back once again against the Pound however four factors could affect this in the short term. Firstly the BOE interest rate decision today, secondly the issue with North Korea…. Hopefully this will calm down before any major action happens however be wary that you could see swift movements for the USD should the current threats start to gain some traction.

Thirdly, we have chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaking this evening on the U.S economy so be aware of potential sharp swings for the Dollar overnight depending on what he says regarding future economic policy.

Finally, we have Non-Farm Payroll data out tomorrow for the States which can actually affect all major currencies. NFP data is essentially the number of people in non agricultural employment within the U.S and the reason it can lead to market volatility is it can effect global attitude to risk – Keep your eyes peeled for this data at 13:30pm tomorrow.

Sterling – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

The Pound is still finding these two as tough opposition and with news that commodity prices had risen by over 7% recently and that the Reserve Bank of Australia have once again kept rates on hold. The strange thing with these pairings is that both Governments appear to be disappointed with how strong their currencies are however neither seems to be doing much about it.

The general outlook is that the trend may continue unless someone steps in to do something about it however if global attitude to risk suddenly decreases then there is a good chance we may see a sharp spike and a potential buying opportunity – contact me today if you want to be made aware should this situation occur.

Sterling – South African Rand

This pairing has been fairly stable of late however once again attitude to risk falling globally may lead to the ZAR weakening again along with any further troubles over in South Africa that we saw a few months back.

Sterling – Swiss Franc

Again, no major movements of late for the pound against the Swiss Franc since the huge charge the Swissy made against Sterling a few months ago – Gaining around 8 cents in a week or so. This pairing is a strange one as the Swiss Government are still not particularly happy with the strength of their currency at present so at any point we could see them bring in a new fiscal policy like we saw quite some time ago where the Swiss Franc lost 10 cents in an hour!

All in all I think the strength of the Pound will be reliant on what happens with the bank of England today and also any rumours or predictions surrounding whether or not the U.K  will fall back into recession on the 25th April.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and you already have a trading facility then feel free to get in touch and I will be more than happy to assist you or monitor the market on your behalf. If you do not have a trading facility yet think I would be able to help you both in terms of a great rate of exchange and level of customer service then click here to register with us which is completely free and carries no obligation but will allow you to get a comparison against your current provider to see if I can help you.

 I look forward to speaking with you!

 

 

 

Resolution for Greece looms but what will happen with the Euro against the Pound and US Dollar

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP USD Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead April 18th

Today was one of the busiest days on the trading floor this year and mainly due to the big decline in sterling exchange rates. When there is major movements in rates that is when we are at our busiest either helping clients decide to capitalise on a gain or stop their loss. The pound took a big
hit against nearly every major currency the day before the big interest rate decision in the UK & Euro Zone. All our regular readers will be well aware of what may occur tomorrow should the Bank of England initiate any further QE. The decision is at 12pm tomorrow so please keep in close contact with us so we can be your eyes and ears on the market.

Just as things had looked like getting better for the pound against the Euro spiking at 1.2098 a couple of days ago, sterling has crashed down to 1.1920 today. Euro exchange rates spiked against most major currencies bringing back better opportunities to sell your Euros to buy GBP or USD. We have been looking at events in Greece for days now wondering if they will find a resolution to cut their spending to the tune of 3 billion Euros which will enable them to get the desperatelyneeded bailout funds they require.

It seems that Greece has finally agreed to the austerity cuts but what will happen with Euro exchange rates? The issues in Europe are far from being over. To many countries are in too deep but this latest resolution will probably strengthen the Euro against a range of currencies in the very
near term. I do not see long term Euro strength and we may see the pound weaken to 1.17/1.18ish over the course of the next week and the USD to weaken to 1.34. I would then expect to see the Euro weaken to levels of 1.20+ against the pound and dip back below 1.30 against the USD.

If you are selling Euros to buy any major currency you may find that today’s agreement may bring that small glimmer of light for you to achieve that little bit more than what has been available over the last two months. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by. Feel free to contact me at [email protected] and we can look at your personal situation and see what options may be suited to your circumstances. In terms of the rate we will offer you please compare what we can offer you to your bank. We will do our upmost to make you a significant saving over your high street bank. Please call us to get a comparison rate.

 

Will the Pound to Euro rate go up or down?

By
Jonathan Watson
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Will the pound or Euro go up or down in the coming weeks or months is a very valid question as there are so many upcoming events to move the rates. I would predict a range of 1.13-1.20 in the coming weeks as we get answers to some very important questions over Brexit and European affairs. If there is one thing the currency markets are not fond of it is political uncertainty. Markets can just about digest economic uncertainty as investors are used to assessing economic data on a daily basis. However political events, particularly the unique nature of current affairs make for some much more interesting outcomes for the pound to euro exchange rate.

The pound to euro rate could fall and easily retest the lower levels of 1.1298 seen in 2017 as well as the 1.1068 seen back in October. These big falls in sterling were all due to worry over the Brexit and as such these levels could easily be revisited. The actual triggering of Article 50 could be anytime in the next month, if you have a transfer to consider with pounds or euros making a decision or some plans before this happens seems very sensible to me. For my clients I am currently drawing up strategies to help cope with such volatility for the pound, if you would like information on a strategy to suit you please email me Jonathan Watson at [email protected].

What kind of deal will the UK actually get with the EU? Will this have a large detrimental effect on the UK economy? Will Theresa May’s determination to put immigration and sovereignty above economic certainty harm the UK? These are just some of the questions looming which could well lead to the pound coming under some serious selling pressures again in the not so distant future.

Euro buyers with pounds need not jump out of the window quite yet. Whilst sterling may well fall the recent trend has been more positive for sterling as investors finally get some clarity over the Brexit. Of course this is just one step on a long journey but it might be that markets do not view Brexit so badly now? Only time will tell, personally this is not a risk I would be wholly advocating. Considering GBPEUR is currently at some of the best deals in 2017 some 4% higher than the lows, now is clearly not a bad time to be considering your Euro purchase.

Further good news for Euro buyers is the political uncertainty emanating from events in the Eurozone. 20th February sees the Eurogroup meeting to discuss the problems of Greek debt. Then 15th March sees Dutch Elections which could well weigh on the Euro. Moving into April on the 23rd we have the French elections. With plenty of fresh headlines around such events likely to weigh on the Euro we could see some better opportunities for Euro buyers. I would not rule out rates over 1.20, we are not far from that now. If you wish to buy Euros at 1.20 please email me on [email protected] and I can monitor developments for you.

It might be that the pound to Euro rate rises on Greek fears in the next week before dipping once Article 50 is triggered and then rising again around the Dutch election. I would honestly be predicting swings of up to 2-3 cents on certain days as markets get wrong-footed and we see surprises trigger volatility on the markets.

Whilst it is impossible to accurately predict the outcome of the events above it is possible to make plans and preparations. As part of my personal strategies for personal clients and businesses who need to conduct pound to euro exchanges I can explain all of the options available and offer my personal proactive service to monitor the market.

For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch with Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected]. I have appeared on BBC News discussing the Brexit and have been quoted in numerous online articles and newspapers. I cannot tell you exactly what to do but I am very confident I can offer some useful insight and information to help you get the most from the market.

 

 

Have I Missed The Boat On Sterling?

By
Daniel Wright
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Pound to Dollar Rate Supported by UK GDP Data

In my previous couple of blogs I have mentioned that I felt sterling has been over-valued and in particular that Aussie and Kiwi buyers should cash in, but what should you do now if you have missed the boat?  The difficulty is not letting your heart rule your head and hoping the exchange rate moves in your favour.  Also dont assume that because a currency is rising against one particular currency, that it will rise against all of them.  Also it is important to separate short term and longer term trends.

For example, look at the Aussie Dollar.  One of the principle reasons for the pound falling back against the Aussie is the recent RBA statement that they have come to the end of their current rate easing cycle.  Combine this with the fact the Bank of England have talked down the prospect of imminent interest rate hikes in the UK then I dont think it is likely sterling will gain huge ground in the short term.  If somebody had approached you as an Aussie buyer last year offering rates over 1.80 you probably would have bitten their arm off to the shoulder and beyond, so whilst you may look back at the very recent 1.90s wistfully, I still think current levels represent great value in the short term.  GBP AUD went up so quickly last year that at some point it was always going to overshoot and now I think a period of consolidation is order.

Contrast this with the Euro for example where the pound has also lost ground recently.  Whilst sterling may not regain the ground lost from the change in UK interest rate forecasts, I still think Europe has a lot of problems to resolve, and increasingly low inflation figures suggest to me that the ECB will have to take some form of action again soon.  They surprised us with the interest rate cut in November, and whilst I don’t foresee a change in interest rates today, I think the press conference could throw up some surprises that may cause Euro wobbles.  If you are buying Euro then I would be tempted to hang on, whereas if you are selling Euros I think 1.20 may prove a tough nut to crack.  The rate of increase on GBP EUR has been a lot shallower than on GBP AUD, and whilst the factors affecting sterling remain the same, the issues of interest rate forecasts etc are vastly different for the other two meaning a different approach to each has to be taken for anyone holding sterling.

Friday also sees US non farm payroll data, and provided the jobs numbers are ok, I see little reason for the Fed, under new Chairman Yellen, to deviate form the $10bn a month tapering of their Quantitative Easing program.  Whilst talk of debt issues may keep the Dollar a touch weaker in the short term, I suspect sterling will slide gradually against the Dollar.  Recent history shows levels over 1.60 have been pretty attractive, so again I would be tempted to buy soon rather than hoping to get back to 1.65.  Again CAD buyers may want to look at this approach too regarding 1.80.

If you do have a currency transfer requirement and would like some more information about how to do it and get the best exchange rate then please feel free to email me, Colm, at [email protected] or call me on 01494 787 478

GBP/EUR rates of exchange tumble and further pressure expected (Joshua Privett)

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP USD Exchange Rate Climbs Higher but Growth Fears Remain

Looking back at the posts from other authors this week I hope their advice was heeded to use Sterling as a purchasing currency ahead of the events today. GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD and a host of Sterling’s currency pairings fell sharply this afternoon as news for the UK interest rate hike timeline came in even worse than expected.

For the fourth consecutive month Sterling has suffered as a result of delays in an interest rate hike for the UK economy. This month, however, was worse than its predecessors, which explains why Sterling fell by more than a percent against most currency pairings today. As an example the day high and low for GBP/EUR was 1.42 and 1.39 respectively.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, had originally been hinting that rates could rise as early as Spring 2016. All of a sudden, after ending months of dodging questions, he has finally admitted that a hike was now firmly off the table until 2017.

Sterling will now be facing a difficult month ahead as investors unwind their current positions on the Pound and look elsewhere for greater short-term returns. One of the reasons Carney stated a hike was off the table was because he was expecting inflation to worsen. When this data comes out next week and confirms his fears Sterling’s value could face similar falls already experienced today against most of its currency pairings.

If not for news that the Volkwagen scandal doubled to include petrol powered cars as well as diesel on Wednesday, GBP/EUR should be even lower. The further loss of €3bn on the European stock-markets caused the Euro to weaken by two cents ahead of the events today. As such the fall this afternoon GBP/EUR could have hit as low as 1.37. A cushion for Euro buyers who did not move ahead of the announcement today.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or various forms of Dollars to buy with Sterling over the next few months should contact me on [email protected] to discuss a strategy on your transfer and receive a competitive quote in order to maximise the value of the Pounds in your possession. 

These current rates of exchange can be fixed to avoid future losses on your transfer.

What now for the pound? Get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

By
Daniel Wright
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GBP USD Exchange Rate Bounces Off Yet Another Two-Year Low

Sterling exchange rates continued their recent strong run yesterday as the Bank of England (BofE) opted against increasing Quantitative Easing at their latest meeting in London. Recently the trend for GBP/EUR has been in favour of the pound; in fact we have seen sterling gain over 2.4% since the 22nd October – this making a difference of €6k on a £200k money transfer, possibly a good opportunity to take advantage?

Where now for the pound?

Mervyn King (BofE Governor) and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the UK interest rate at 0.5% and decided against injecting further funds into the money supply, where does this leave the pound in the run up to Christmas? In my opinion we may see Sterling gain in the short term against a host of currencies including the Euro and USD however I believe these gains could be short lived. I feel GBP/EUR will test the 1.26/27 territory in the run up to Christmas and I can see GBP/USD heading back above 1.60, but would err on the side of caution for anyone holding on for much more.

The recent positive UK GDP data from the UK has given the UK economy and pound a much needed boost, however if you look at the fundamentals behind the UK economy the feel good factor may not last too much longer. Unemployment figures are high, house prices are stagnating and the positive growth seen is likely to adjust down in the aftermath of the Olympic effect. For this reason I would expect to see more QE from the Bank of England in the New Year and feel this will keep pressure on the pound and drive GBP/EUR back towards 1.23 and GBP/USD to the 1.55/56 territory.

Will Spain request a bailout?

Following the BofE interest rate decision to keep rates on hold, the the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to keep rates on hold at 0.75%. In his press conference Mario Draghi (head of the ECB) informed the waiting press that the euro zone economy shows little sign of recovering before the year-end despite an easing of financial market condition Investors and euro zone policymakers have been urging Spain to seek aid but Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has so far avoided requesting help, saying he wants assurances that ECB intervention would bring down Spain’s debt costs. Indeed Spain sold €4.8 billion euros of debt yesterday and yields on Spanish government bonds have fallen 2% since July. With this in mind it could be some time before Rajoy succumbs to pressure and opts for a much needed bailout, until this time the Euro is likely to remain under pressure. However he could opt for a bailout at any time and for this reason market conditions are likely to remain volatile.

Global confidence and risk appetite

For me it is inevitable that Spain will request a bailout and when it does I feel a much needed boost in confidence and a surge in risk appetite will be seen. This leaves a number of currencies sitting on a knife edge. In times of market confidence riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR in particular will benefit and the moves can be significant. Likewise the so called ‘safe haven’ currencies (historically the USD and CHF) will lose value as investors sell these currencies to lodge positions elsewhere. Should you be buying AUD, NZD or ZAR anytime it may prove prudent to keep in contact with your account manager to avoid any nasty surprises.

The aim of this website is to achieve the best market price we can for our clients and this means keeping in regular contact with updates on current market trends. By helping clients time their exchange it can make a huge difference on the final cost of the currency purchase, should you have an upcoming currency exchange whether this be a property completion, business transaction, inheritance to name just a few, then please contact us on 01497 787 478 or email Mike at [email protected] to get the best deal on your foreign exchange.

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Where interbank exchange rates are referenced within the website these should only be used as a guide on the performance of a market. These rates are not indicative of our exchange rates – please contact us for a quote.

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