GBP/EUR rates remain in the 1.15s despite PM May’s position coming under pressure

BP/EUR rates remain in the 1.15s despite PM May's position coming under pressure

Despite trading in a mixed fashion against most major currency pairs today, the pound to euro (GBP/EUR) rate is currently up and trading towards the top of it’s daily range against the euro despite a number of domestic issues.

The headlines this morning revolve around the Prime Ministers position, despite Theresa May surviving a vote of no-confidence as recently as December there could be another challenge to her position as it’s emerged that around 70 local association chiefs have called for an Extraordinary General Meeting to discuss her position. If pressure mounts on her to step down, this time from a more grassroots level, we could see sterling come under pressure as it would no doubt increase the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

Now that the UK has another 6-months to arrange the details of the Brexit arrangement, my personal take is that a change of leadership would result in a drop in the pounds value. It’s likely that politics will remain the key driver for Pound Sterling value but due to the delay and no deal being in place, I think that economic updates may be watched a bit more closely now, in case the uncertainty surrounding the UK results in a drop off in the UK economy.

Volatile pound vs euro (GBP/EUR) rates

This week is very quiet for economic data releases, and the pound’s value is surprisingly mixed so far today so it’s likely that political updates along with economic updates from outside the UK will be the main drivers of GBP value. It is worth noting that tomorrow at 9.30am the Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be released, and this release will cover the amount of debt held by UK governments. If you would like to be updated regarding this release do feel free to register your interest.

On Thursday there will be a speech from the European Central Bank’s De Guindos, and this is also worth being aware of in case any references to monetary policy are made. The speech will start around 1.30pm.

For more information on how upcoming events could affect your GBP/EUR currency exchange, feel free to use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your requirements.

Pound to Euro rates: What next for Brexit and GBP/EUR rates?

Pound to Euro Outlook Are GBPEUR exchange rates likely to fall further?

The pound to Euro exchange rate has often been quoted as a barometer of the Brexit uncertainties, and to no real surprise it has gently drifted lower this week as we head into the UK Easter weekend. The absence of any new positive news has seen the pound lower and investors, clients and other interested parties are not comfortable holding sterling because of the precarious nature of what lies ahead.

Pound to Euro rates lower, but still higher than the start of 2019

It is well worth pointing out that those buying Euros with pounds are still performing trades at a very high level. A £250,000 purchase of Euros will today deliver an €14,000 extra compared to January 1st. The optimism that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is now much less likely, or will not happen at all has seen the pound supported.

The outlook ahead for Euro exchange rates had been rather shaky and could continue to be in the months ahead. This is owing to increased political questions (more on which later), and economic concerns too. However, the latest weakness has subsided, as the potential for a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks, provides some optimism over how US-EU talks will pan out.

Will GBP/EUR rates rise or fall in April and May?

Overall those looking to purchase Euros with pounds have, I feel great concerns ahead, since Brexit uncertainties do outweigh concerns on the continent. Moving forward we have two major political tests too, the UK local elections on the 2nd May and the European elections on May 23rd.

Personally, I expect the pound to suffer during these as voters reject Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn for their poor handling of Brexit so far. The belief is that both parties will suffer, with the Tories expected to suffer the most.

We are already seeing signs of the Brexit Party performing well in the polls and this could bode well for Mr Farage and further complicates the already fractured picture on Brexit.

What next for pound to Euro exchange rates?

I foresee a lower range for GBP/EUR rates of the 1.10-1.11 is still a real possibility if events take certain directions. With any surprise optimism we could retest the 1.18 handle, providing further opportunities for Euro buyers.

If you have a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro, there are no shortage of events to move the rate. Forecasting is no easy feat, but with our expert knowledge of the FX markets and many years’ experience, we can provide an informed voice to provide options and discuss strategy.

Thank you for reading my latest pound to Euro forecast. If you would like more information on GBP/EUR rates or have a currency transfer you would like to discuss please feel free to contact me using the form below:

Pound to euro rate increases: Will Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s talks break the Brexit impasse

Pound vs Euro forecast: A higher probability of a no deal Brexit will result in a weaker Pound

Overnight the pound to euro rate increased by half a cent, off the back of the news that UK Prime Minister Theresa May offered an extended arm to Jeremy Corbyn to get involved with the future direction of the Brexit negotiations. To put this into monetary value the improvement could generate a client an additional €1,000 on a £200,0000 transfer.

Is the UK heading for Customs Union access?

In recent weeks Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has made it clear that the Labour party want some form of customs union access. Therefore for Theresa May to offer the leader of the opposition to get involved, it appears that the PM will now change her approach and go down the route of a softer Brexit. The problem the PM has is that many of her cabinet members have stated that resignations are on the horizon if either the PM looks for a long extension or customs union access.

Looking ahead, all eyes now turn to the meeting between the two leaders. If they manage to come to a compromise MPs within the House of Commons will have a vote on the Brexit deal before the EU summit on the 10th. In addition, if they fail to reach a compromise the Prime Minister has offered to allow MPs to vote on different alternatives in a bid to find a majority that they can take to the EU.

Pound to euro rate increases as no deal looks less likely

With the recent voting patterns in Parliament and Theresa May’s decision last night, in my view it looks like the most likely option is a long extension. The reason being is that MPs don’t support a crash out Brexit and it doesn’t look like there will be a 4th meaningful vote on Theresa May’s deal. This is being reflected with the current GBP/EUR mid market exchange rates above 1.17. However as we know the ongoing Brexit saga continues to keep us on the edge of our seats as anything could happen. For clients that are buying euros short term, mid market levels are 1 cent off the best rates we have seen in 20 months, if Cabinet resignations follow the PMs meeting with the leader of the opposition this could put pressure on the pound.

For clients that are converting pounds to euros in the upcoming week, the key economic data to look out for this week is, the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts released Thursday afternoon and Non-Farm Payroll numbers released Friday afternoon for the US.

For more information on the data releases and how they could impact pound to euro exchange rates feel free to fill in the form below and I will contact you shortly.

Pound to Euro forecast – Brexit limbo and the effect on GBP/EUR rates

Pound to Euro forecast No Deal planning sparks volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates

Sterling to Euro Forecast – Brexit Uncertainty Increases

This morning Theresa May is expected to update ministers regarding her position on the current Brexit strategy when she chairs a meeting of her Cabinet today.

It has been rumoured that if she names a date of resignation it could boost support for her Brexit deal. There have been no comments from Downing Street in regards to Mrs May’s resigning at this stage.

Theresa May has suffered defeat twice when her Brexit deal has been put to the vote in Parliament and it is still unclear whether she will bring it back a third time this week. Mrs May has said it will only be put before Parliament if it has sufficient support.

It seems one of the major concerns for MPs is related to whether Theresa May will to be involved in the next phase of Brexit talks, trade negotiations, following the extension of Article 50.

May perhaps did not make the wisest move last week blaming the need for a Brexit extension on MPs. There have been rumours of a plot to oust her. If this was the case this could hit Sterling value hard, adding more uncertainty to the situation.

May had invited those against her deal to Chequers to assess whether she can gain support for her deal to then put it before Parliament. At present there does not seem to have been any significant progress.

MPs are expected to speak today in order to set a schedule for a series of votes on alternatives to May’s Brexit plan which is obviously a concern for the PM. There could be as many as six other options to the current deal.

How could Brexit affect exchange rates?

It is now more difficult than ever to predict which how Brexit could affect the Pound’s value. I am surprised Sterling is holding up so well against the majority of the major currencies.

The pressure is now on to come up with a solution in a limited period of time. A resignation from the PM would no doubt add to the volatility on GBP/EUR rates. If you have to buy Sterling short term it maybe wise to consider a Stop/Loss order to protect yourself should a no deal scenario become more apparent. It is important to remember current rates of exchange are still impressive, the GBP/EUR rate has a very strong resistance point at 1.15 for over 20 months.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. you can contact me directly using the form below:

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

Sterling exchange rates have started the week by remaining fairly steady as we enter crunch time for Theresa May and the UK, coming into the last two weeks of Brexit talks.

Yesterday, news that the Speaker of the House John Bercow was not prepared to allow yet another attempt at getting a meaningful vote through did lead to a slight drop off in the value of the Pound, but there are still various paths that Brexit could take over the next few weeks. We only have 10 days left before the deadline.

The Brexit deal could still be approved

We still cannot rule out Theresa May having her Brexit deal go through Parliament, even with John Bercow’s latest ruling. Prime Minister May is still locked in talks with the DUP and other members of Parliament that are currently against the deal. If she can turn enough heads then Parliament can overturn John Bercow’s ruling as long as they have a majority. This is quite a way off being possible yet but should she manage to pull this off then I would expect Sterling strength due to the certainty it brings back to the UK.

A Brexit delay could be agreed with the EU

The most likely outcome at present is that Prime Minister May will end up approaching the EU for an agreement to delay the Brexit date. It had been suggested this could be for as long as two years but could just as likely be for a much shorter period.

It would be no surprise to see this also give the Pound a slight lift, due to the fact that it could suggest that Brexit could end up being a totally different beast. It also opens up the door for the possibility of a second EU referendum or even a general election before any further major changes. It could also lead to the possibility of Brexit not even happening at all.

Either way if the delay was for a long period of time I would be surprised to not see Theresa May step aside and to let someone else take the reins.

The EU could refuse to delay Brexit

In order to delay Brexit all 27 EU countries need to come to an agreement that they are happy for this to happen. There is a chance that the request for a delay could be refused and this would be one option that could lead to Sterling weakness.

A refusal for a delay will almost back the UK into accepting the deal they currently have or to face the prospect of leaving with no deal.

No deal has been the big worry for investors and speculators as it brings a great deal of uncertainty and could lead to Sterling losing a lot of value until there is greater certainty on future plans.

There are also other twists and turns that could happen over the next 10 days and I personally would not rule anything out at this stage as we just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, so it would be foolish to make a stern prediction.

It does seem that most avenues to lead to Sterling strength but if you are in the process of a large overseas purchase, or bringing a large volume of foreign currency back into the UK then you need to make sure that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side. With all the politics involved you need to make sure that you are ready and in a position to move quickly should the opportunity arise.

If you would like to speak with someone here at Pound Sterling Forecast who will be able to explain the various options you have available, along with making sure that your current provider or bank are offering you the most for your money in this key time, then feel free to fill in the form below and we will make sure we get in touch for a no obligation discussion with you shortly.

Theresa May loses meaningful vote and Sterling loses value – Two more key votes this week

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast Sterling rates continue to suffer from Brexit uncertainty

Last night saw Theresa May lose her meaningful vote once again and this has led to uncertainty for the UK and indeed Sterling exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates

Yesterday morning we saw Sterling breach the 1.17 mark against the Euro and traders seemed to be filled with confidence that a deal for the UK could be on the horizon.

As the morning progressed Sterling then started to weaken and this was due to news that the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox had suggested that the new changes were not totally legally binding.

He then continued on to inform the House of Commons that they had a duty of care to the UK and to be very wary of voting down the deal, as although the new terms were not legally binding, if the EU did not act in good faith there were other options available to resolve the matter.

This didn’t seem to turn many heads in the right direction as news broke late last night that Prime Minister May had lost the vote by a margin of 149, suggesting she is still a very long way away from getting her Brexit deal approved.

No deal Brexit vote expected today

Today now brings about a new vote on whether Parliament would like to leave the EU with ‘no deal’. It is unlikely that we will see this get voted through as this could be seen from the outside as very damaging to the economy, but you can never rule these things out!

Personally, unless it does start to look like we may see the no deal vote go through, I expect a slightly less volatile trading day, but the rest of the week will most likely be extremely volatile again.

The rest of the week is expected to be volatile

Tomorrow, assuming today’s vote does not go through will lead to a vote on whether or not Parliament will seek an extension to Article 50. Last night Prime Minister May suggested that if this is the route that we are to take then the EU will only approve this if we can suggest why we would like the extension. More time to negotiate may not wash with the EU so other options, including a second referendum will have to be debated. I think these kind of subjects could lead to great volatility for Pound to Euro exchange rates.

If you are in the position where you need to exchange Pounds into Euros or bring Euros back into Pounds then it is key that you have your eye on the market at all times. If you have a busy lifestyle and cannot afford to watch the market, which moves by the second, then it is key that you have a proactive broker with various options available to you.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we can not only help with information but we can facilitate the trade for you too, we have numerous contract options available for clients such as limit orders, forward contracts and stop losses, designed to help you in these testing times.

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to discuss your personal position in more detail.

Crucial week ahead for the Pound vs the Euro owing to votes in the House of Commons

Pound to Canadian Dollar forecast Brexit remains in Limbo

We are now just one day from potentially the biggest day of the year for Sterling Euro exchange rates as the House of Commons are due to meet to vote on the latest Brexit deal on offer by Theresa May.

Only last week the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came back from Europe with little changes made to the current Irish backstop agreement and therefore it looks highly unlikely that the vote will go through tomorrow.

If this happens then the next step will be to vote on whether or not to look at voting in favour of a no deal Brexit, which is also highly unlikely to happen. This will then mean that the chances of Article 50 being extended go up and it will be interesting to see how this is reflected in Sterling exchange rates.

I think we could possibly see Sterling go in an upwards direction against the Euro if a no deal is completely removed from the debate as this will provide a lot of assurances for British business.

However, it does not remove the uncertainty as to how long the Brexit talks will continue so we could be in for a lot of movements on GBP/EUR exchange rates during the course of this week so make sure you’re well prepared to act quickly if you have a currency transfer to make.

As we saw towards the end of last week there was a lot of movement on Friday afternoon with Sterling Euro rates moving up and down by over half a cent owing to the uncertainty of this week’s potential vote.

Over the weekend some Tory MPs have urged the Prime Minister to potentially delay the vote, but with less than three weeks to go before the UK is due to leave the European Union, times is clearly running out so to delay this vote could cause huge problems politically for the Prime Minister.

With so much uncertainty this week concerning Pound Euro exchange rates we could see a lot of movement on rates making your currency transfer more or less expensive so if you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound Sterling Forecast: Will the Pound strengthen further against the Euro?

Pound to Euro outlook Could pound to Euro exchange rates rise back above 1.10?

Brexit continues to be the key factor on Sterling value and I would expect current levels to remain until voting on Theresa May’s current Brexit deal begins which is due to take place before 12th March, although it is more than likely to take place on the day itself.

Unless the PM gains concessions from Brussels on the Irish border I think her Brexit deal will fail and will not be voted through by MPs. If this is the case a vote will be held the following day on whether or not Parliament will be willing to leave the EU without a deal.

I think this is unlikely and if that is the case we will then see a third vote the following day. This will concern whether or not there should be an extension to the March 29th deadline.
I think an extension will be the likely outcome and this could cause a further rise in the Pound’s value despite this being factored somewhat into current levels on GBP/EUR.

The PM could have something agreed behind closed doors with Jean-Claude Junker which could see an eleventh hour deal, but I feel this is less likely than an extension to Article 50. I believe the probability of a no deal has now dropped substantially.

Is now the best time to sell Euros?

If you are sitting on Euros with the hope of a large fall in the Pound I would be wary. You are essentially relying on a no deal scenario which now seems far less likely. Morgan Stanley stated recently there is less than 5% chance of a no deal Brexit scenario occurring and Parliament have been vocal their intention is to make sure this does not occur. There is the potential for movement in your favour as negotiations intensify, but I do not think there will be huge gains. The risk is if news filters through that an agreement has been reached on the Irish border we could see significant gains for the Pound which could prove costly.

If you are Euro seller and your funds are not yet available a forward contact should be considered. This essentially allows you to book your currency at current market levels with a 10% deposit and then specify a date to pay the balance.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in this Pound to Euro forecast, or would like more information on GBP/EUR transfers, please use the form below to ask a question, I’ll respond personally to discuss your query.

GBP/EUR rates: One week until the meaningful vote and the impact upon Sterling vs Euro

Pound to Euro Rates Marooned Under 1.12 as UK Political Battle Intensifies

Sterling has been trading close to a 2 year high against the Euro in the last week as it appears as though the latest Brexit news is helping to support the value of the Pound against a number of different currencies.

Will Article 50 be extended?

The likelihood is that we could see an extension to Article 50 and this has helped the Pound to increase as investors look to second guess what may happen in the next few weeks.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested that she is willing to allow more time for the talks to progress and with just one week before the UK is set to hold its next ‘meaningful vote’ in the House of Commons we could be in for a very volatile period coming for Sterling exchange rates particularly against the Euro.

How will the Brexit vote affect GBP/EUR rates?

It has been made evident since early December that MPs are not happy with the current terms being offered by the Prime Minister, and with less than a month to go Theresa May is running out of time to get her proposed Brexit deal through.

If we see another defeat next week then this moves us to either the option of a ‘no deal’ Brexit or an extension. I personally cannot see a ‘no deal’ happening so in my mind the likelihood will be for an extension and I think this could move the Pound in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Further Sterling strength could be on the horizon

As we saw over two years ago when the original EU referendum took place, the reason why the Pound plummeted against the Euro was because of the risk to trade. An extension allows a period of relief and this is why I think the Pound could move up against the Euro in the next few weeks, providing some better opportunities for those looking to send money to Europe.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates when transferring currency. If you would like a free quote, or just has some questions about GBP/EUR rates, you can contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.


Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP find further support against the EUR this week?

Pound to Euro Forecast - Brexit Extended

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the outlook for GBP/EUR exchange rates during the week ahead. The Pound has started the week on the front foot against the Euro, finding plenty of support above 1.15.

With further gains this morning pushing the Pound to Euro rate up to a high 1.1591, investors will now be asking themselves whether this positive trend is set to continue over the coming days.

Pound to Euro forecast: Brexit talks key to Pound value

Today’s meeting between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, could hold the key to any further improvement for the Pound this week.

Their much anticipated meeting will be monitored closely by the markets, as the two key figureheads try to find common ground over the Irish backstop agreement. This seems to be the final major sticking point between UK MPs voting through a Brexit deal or not, ahead of next month’s impending deadline. With March 29th fast approaching, the two will be under pressure to find a resolution or they face being left in the unenviable position of having to agree upon an extension to Article 50, or even worse having to accept that the UK leaves the EU without a deal being in place.

The threat of a no-deal has been enough to restrict any major upturn for the Pound in recent months, whilst it has also helped to protect the Euro from any heavy losses, despite growing concerns surrounding the Eurozone economy.

If Theresa May manages to somehow push through any revised Brexit deal, then I anticipate the EUR/GBP rate to dip sharply, with the markets now likely factoring in the chances of Article 50 being extended.

Barnier has already highlighted how fraught the negotiations are likely to be in the final stages, which indicates that we are set for increased volatility for the Pound to Euro forecast.

If Euro sellers in particular are holding off on selling their currency positions around the current levels, then I can only imagine that they are pinning most of their hopes on a no-deal Brexit, a scenario I feel is required if we are to see the single currency return towards its post referendum highs.

For more information on what is affecting GBP/EUR rates, or to discuss anything you have read in my Pound to Euro forecast, please feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.


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