GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Plummets 1.5% on Brexit Vote Delays

GBP/EUR Forecast for Q1 2019

In today’s GBP/EUR forecast we discuss the headline event of this week, the UK Parliament’s meaningful vote on Mrs May’s Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill, has been postponed. The news saw the pound sharply sold off as traders bet that the uncertainty would persist and there is now an increased likelihood of worse news to come.

Sterling to Euro rates hit a 4 month low nudging the 1.10 mark. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1180 before diving to 1.1050 by lunchtime, with a further fall to 1.1011 by mid-afternoon as the House of Commons questioned May on her actions.

Mrs May will now travel to Europe to meet with various leaders in a last-ditch attempt to salvage her deal, mainly to try and get concessions on the Irish backstop issue which has so far been a key issue preventing her from finalising support within her Party.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Plenty more news to come for the pound

Pound to Euro exchange rates will receive plenty more news this week as this situation unfolds, there is an EU Summit on Thursday where Brexit is not directly on the agenda, but may well be discussed.

Sterling looks set to continue to struggle against this negative backdrop of news, we also have a series of economic releases in the UK and the Eurozone to move rates. This morning is the latest UK Unemployment figures, one of the better pieces of news surrounding the UK economy.

Eurozone events that could affect the GBP/EUR forecast

Thursday sees the latest ECB, European Central Bank interest rate decision where market attention will be very much on the ECB and whether or not they will finally stop their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. With plenty of fresh political risks from Spain, Italy and France across the Eurozone, there is a risk of the ECB being more cautious.

Economic news too in the Eurozone has not been ideal, with Germany slowing and many concerned Italy could be headed for a recession. This could all lead to greater concerns for the ECB, which might prevent them from advancing their monetary plans. This would see the Euro weaker should it be the case.

Brexit news the main driver for GBP/EUR rates

The performance of GBP/EUR rates this week and ahead will be largely determined by the next direction on Brexit. There is now an increased possibility of either Mrs May being forced out by her Party or Parliament, an increased chance of a second referendum and also improved prospect of a no-deal.

Sterling will react heavily to the news so clients looking to buy Euros with sterling should be closely monitoring the Brexit and developing situations. It does look likely to be sterling which suffers the most but with the market now appearing to be pricing in worst case scenarios, the potential for a sudden spike upwards, should Theresa May manage to find a way forward, cannot be ruled out.

This is a major week on GBP/EUR exchange rates, the fallout from which may well spread into next week or 2019. The market will eagerly await further news on what to expect with a strong possibility that sterling might at any time move sharply according to a sudden headline or piece of news.

Clients with any GBP/EUR money transfers, to buy or sell might who wish to be kept informed of the latest news and receive updates on this ever-changing market, can please contact me below. I’ll be happy to discuss my GBP/EUR forecast in more detail.

GBP to EUR Falls Lower as Risk of UK General Election Looms ahead of Parliamentary Vote

Pound to Euro forecast: Theresa May under pressure ahead of next week's Brexit vote

Pound to Euro exchange rates have started the week lower ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote to be held tomorrow (11th December) on whether parliament will accept the Brexit deal so far agreed. Rates for GBP to EUR have now fallen to below 1.1150 after weekend reports suggest that the vote will still go ahead as planned despite a growing consensus that Prime Minister will lose this vote.

It is more than likely that Theresa May will be unable to push through her Brexit deal in the Commons and with this carries a number of risks for the pound. If for example she loses the vote by less than 100 then there is every chance she may go back to Brussels and try and renegotiate the terms surrounding the Irish backstop. The worry is that this deal is so unpopular even amongst the Conservative Party that she could lose by as much as 200. A defeat on this scale could see the pound come crashing down as the uncertainty of a general election would likely follow.

If the vote is lost will there be a General Election?

If the Prime Minister lost by such a large number of votes then a motion of no confidence could be passed which could take the country in to General Election territory. The Labour Party has already signalled its readiness to govern in such a scenario and this prospect is a major threat to the price of sterling. The situation the United Kingdom finds itself in is unprecedented and clients should look to plan around this event with major volatility for GBP to EUR expected. If the Prime Minster was able to get the vote through then the pound will likely strengthen. Discussions between the EU and UK have been opened again surrounding the Irish backstop so there could be new developments today.

GBP to EUR rates: French riots could cause issues for the Euro

The Euro faces a volatile period ahead as French President Emanuel Macron struggles to fight to the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) who have rioted again at the weekend despite an offer from the President last week to freeze a fuel tax for months. President Macron is all of a sudden looking less popular having not delivered on his promises of major reform for France. He has also been dubbed a President for the rich after cutting a tax on high incomes immediately after he became President.

This doesn’t bode well for the Eurozone and hence the Euro as political tensions continue to create uncertainty. The French riots for the last four weekends have also been harmful to the economy and this is likely to reflect in a lower growth going forward. It comes at a time when both German and Italian Gross Domestic Product have dropped dramatically.

The European Central Bank will meet this week and should finally conclude the winding down of its asset purchasing scheme despite concerns that the EU economy might not yet be ready. Brexit however will almost certainly be the main driver for EUR to GBP rates.

For up-to-date information on GBP to EUR rates or if you would like to talk about a GBP to EUR exchange please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

Pound to Euro forecast – How will the Brexit vote impact exchange rates?

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit continues to be the key factor

The Pound to Euro forecast is for volatility next week. Pound to Euro exchange rates have been trading in a relatively tight range during the course of this week as the foreign exchange markets appear to be eagerly anticipating what may happen next week when MPs will vote on the current Brexit plan on offer.

At the moment it appears as though Therea May does not have the support that she needs to approve this current Brexit deal and I think whatever happens next week with the vote will be crucial in determining the future of the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

With such uncertainty surrounding what may happen next week if the vote does not go through, this could cause further losses for the Pound against the Euro and as we saw with the original referendum back in June 2016 with a 10% fall on Pound to Euro rates a precedent of huge movement in a single day has been set.

Rumours are circulating that Theresa May could fall well short and some Tories have proposed that the deadline of the vote should even be delayed.

With the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit increasing this is causing problems for Sterling against a number of different currencies including against the Euro so it may be worth getting things organised prior to the vote next week to avoid any potential pitfalls.

Theresa May has today sent out 30 MPs in order to convince others to vote in support of the current Brexit deal as if things remain the same then this vote could go very badly for the Prime Minister next week.

Pressure off the Euro as French protests end

Turning the focus back towards the continent, the Euro has started to strengthen after the fuel tax problems in France have stopped at least for the time being.

Emmanuel Macron has announced that the rise in fuel tax has been suspended for 6 months and this has helped the Euro to regain some of its recent losses against both the US Dollar and the Pound. In the last fortnight the French leader was coming under immense pressure with riots in Paris and many blockades across France so with things now a lot calmer this has come as welcome news for the Euro.

With such a big vote next week, if you’re in the process of buying Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro Rates after British Legal Position Explained

GBP/EUR Alert - Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

Pound to Euro rates has come under further pressure this week ahead of the meaningful vote in Parliament on the 11th of December. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox made a statement in the House of Commons yesterday and made it clear that Britain would not be able to leave the backstop unilaterally. The confirmation in stark black and white only helps to paint a picture that the Brexit deal agreed so far in its current form is unlikely to find enough support in the British Parliament. As such there is more risk to the downside for Pound to Euro rates and there could be further weakness for the pair.

There has been much controversy over whether the Government should publish the full legal advice it has been given with regards the backstop and the wider implications. A vote will be held today in Parliament after a debate on whether the Government must publish the text or not. Rates for GBP EUR are likely to react as there are some suspicions that the text contains further difficulties for Britain if the Irish backstop is used. Aside from that the Government will commence the first day of debates on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The meaningful vote will dictate the next part of how Brexit proceeds and major Pound to Euro volatility is expected at this time.

Brexit can be cancelled

Another twist in the Brexit situation is that the European Court of Justice has ruled this morning that the UK can unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU in effect cancelling Brexit if it was so desired.

Euro rates under pressure

Euro exchange rates have come under pressure as the French fuel protests and riots have dominated the headlines creating some uncertainty for President Macron. Although the French President appears to be offering some compromise the ‘gilets jaunes’ are reported to have significant support in France and this could create more political uncertainty in France which should keep the pressure on Euro rates.

The Italian political stalemate is also creating some uncertainty for Pound to Euro rates. Italy are still insisting on pursuing expanding Government spending in the 2019 budget although there has been a reported climb down after Italy has on occasion signalled that they would be prepared to make changes to the current plan.

For more news on Pound to Euro rates or if you would like to talk about an upcoming currency transfer please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

GBP/EUR exchange rates: Factors to look out for this week

GBP/EUR exchange rates - Factors to look out for this week

There’s likely to be a busy start to December for GBP/EUR exchange rates as next week’s key vote approaches. On Tuesday the 11th December there will be a vote in Parliament regarding UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s Brexit plan and although it’s gaining popularity the markets generally expect her to fail to gain the support she needs.

In the lead up to next Tuesday’s vote there are a number of factors that could influence GBP/EUR exchange rates in the meantime. Starting tomorrow there will be five days of debate, each day’s debating being led by a different Cabinet minister. Despite the European Union suggesting there is no scope for amendments to the text agreed by UK-EU negotiators I think talk of amendments could influence the GBP/EUR rate as the plan is unlikely to be supported, with May not getting the support she needs from her own Party, along with the DUP party who have already said they will vote against the deal. This is key as the DUP is supposed to be propping up May’s Government and the chances of her receiving the required support from the Labour party is slim.

French protests could affect GBP/EUR exchange rates

The five days of debate is likely to be a key driver for GBP/EUR exchange rates this week. From the EUR side specifically I think the troubles and protests in France are a key talking point. The protests, which begun over fuel tax increases have spread and now the protests are also about the increasing living costs in France. France now faces the largest protests since 1968 according to many with French President, Emmanuel Macron becoming increasingly unpopular.

This issue is likely to weigh on the Euro’s value so those of our readers with a Euro currency exchange to make should follow this topic closely.

This week’s economic data

In terms of economic data releases this week there will be PMI figures released at 9.30am for the Construction sector tomorrow and then the Services sector on Wednesday. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will be speaking tomorrow which could also influence GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with me using the form below.

Pound to Euro Rates: Brexit Impact Papers Cause Pound Sell-Off

Pound to Euro Rates: Brexit Impact Papers Cause Pound Sell-Off

Pound to Euro rates have fallen this morning, with the Pound falling by over half cent since the opening of European trading.

The Pound’s sharp drop seems to be a direct result of a various Brexit impact papers, which were released yesterday. These made for fairly grim reading, with the Treasury’s findings indicating that regardless of which version of Brexit we ultimately get, they will all have some type of negative impact on the UK economy.

Could Pound to Euro rates reach parity?

The Bank of England (BoE) also published its own Brexit assessment, which was even more damaging in terms of the potential impact Brexit would have, not on the UK economy but ultimately the Pound’s value. They suggested that a worst case scenario could see the Pound lose over 25% of its value. If this did occur then the Pound would sit at less than parity against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Whilst there is a feeling that the BoE may have their own agenda when releasing such statistics, it is clear that our impending Brexit from the single bloc is likely to put some type of pressure on the UK economy and ultimately the Pound, at least in the short-term.

How aggressive any downturn is likely to be is now the question investors will be asking themselves and whether the Pound can find any type of protection as the Brexit saga rumbles on.

The outlook for the Euro

The Euro itself has also felt the strain over recent weeks, as economic concerns in Italy and the longer-term impact of Brexit continue to weigh heavily on investors. The Euro would likely have dropped against the Pound had it not been for investors’ current lack of confidence in Sterling.

Personally, if I had an upcoming Pound to Euro currency exchange requirement I would be very tempted to protect my currency position where feasible.

There is certainly a possibility that UK Prime Minister will fail to gain enough Parliamentary support to push the current Brexit deal though and the then very real prospect of a no-deal Brexit scenario could put the Pound under severe pressure over the coming weeks and beyond.

To discuss the events that could affect current GBP/EUR rates please use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your queries.

Pound vs Euro: Will May’s Brexit Deal get through Parliament?

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

Parliamentary Vote crucial to Pound vs Euro levels

Theresa May saw her deal for Brexit accepted by Brussels this weekend. It took only 38 minutes by each 27 member states. This however did little to move Sterling as the true test for May’s deal will be to get it through Parliament.

There are many MPs who have openly criticised the current Brexit deal which could mean getting the deal through will be no easy task. The vote will take place on 11th December.

If the vote does not go through there is the strong possibility that Theresa May will either be ousted from her position or resign. There has been a call for a vote of no confidence from Jacob Rees-Mogg. There is rumoured to have been as many as 35 letters submitted to the 1922 committee, with 48 required for a leadership challenge to commence.

Brussels have made it clear that the current deal is the best they are willing to offer and any new PM will not be in a position to negotiate a better deal.

If we enter a “no deal” situation there is the strong chance May will have to go, one way or another. Conservatives must be aware that by voting against the deal, there could be a general election on the cards which could lead to the Tories losing power. Odds from bookmakers have it at 50/50 as to whether the deal will go through. I am of the opinion the deal will be voted through in Parliament as the consequences are simply too great.

Pound vs Euro: When to make your exchange

If you are sitting on Euros and looking at risk vs reward I would take advantage of current levels, before Brexit the Pound vs Euro rate sat at 1.42 and the historical average is 1.25.

If I was buying Euros however I would hedge my bets, trading 20-30% of my requirement before the vote and the remainder after the vote.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.

Please feel free to send me a message directly using the form below:

Brexit deal agreed with EU: What does this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

GBP/EUR Forecast for Q1 2019

Over the weekend the U.K took one step closer to Brexit, with members of the EU meeting to agree Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. After 18 months of playing cat and mouse and sitting around the negotiating table the two sides have finally come to a compromise. What could this mean for Pound Euro exchange rates?

So far we have seen very little movement at the start of the trading week, many may have thought that Sterling exchange rates may have shot up, but this stage of the process being agreed had been fairly expected. There were a few wobbles earlier in the week as Spain had threatened to veto the meeting over Gibraltar, but those concerns were swiftly ironed out.

Parliament Brexit vote expected 12th December

The next move for the Pound will most likely be down to the political picture in the U.K and what we hear from members of Parliament and the Conservative Party in the next few weeks. It appears that the aim is for the crucial Parliament vote to take place two weeks today on Monday 12th December. In the build-up to this vote I would expect a huge amount of jawboning and commenting from various members as to how they feel the vote will go.

We must remember that should Theresa May’s deal be voted down, or should speculation be rife that there is a high chance of it being voted down then Pound Euro exchange rates could drop significantly. The reason this could happen is that we are in such a late stage now that should this deal not go through Parliament the chances of the U.K ending up in a no deal scenario will be high.

On top of this, Theresa May has also refused to rule out a resignation should her proposed deal not be approved. This could see a great deal of Political uncertainty in the U.K and once again that would put strain on Pound Euro exchange rates.

Sterling strength expected is Brexit approved by Parliament

Should the deal be approved then we may see a jump in the value of the Pound, as this would mean we are one step closer to everything moving forward. As mentioned earlier in this report the markets move on speculaton as well as fact. I would expect the Pound Euro rate to be fairly volatile in the next two weeks. This will throw up some great buying and selling opportunities along the way.

If you are in the process of buying or selling an overseas property and you would like our assistance with getting the very best rate of exchange and timing the transfer, then feel free to fill in the form below or make an enquiry on our site and we will be more than happy to get in touch to speak with you about your personal situation.

Pound Euro exchange rates: Economic data this week

We do not have a huge amount of economic data out this week, this is quite common for the end of the calendar month, but there are a few pieces to look out for.

On Wednesday we have banking stress test results in the U.K along with a general financial stability report. Thursday brings German employment figures along with some European Consumer Confidence and an EU financial stability review. Friday rounds the week off with the EU unemployment rate, expected to have seen a slight improvement, and inflation figures, both released at 10:00am.

Personally, I expect that Brexit will be the key driver for Pound Euro exchange rates over the course of the week. From initial research it does appear that there are many that are prepared to vote against Theresa May’s proposed deal, so be prepared that Sterling could have a tricky week should the negativity surrounding the Brexit deal gather momentum.

If you have any foreign exchange requirements, be it buying or selling a property, business requirements or quite simply moving money from one currency to another, bank to bank then it is well worth you contact me personally. Not only can I assist you with information to help the timing of your transfer but I can also ensure you get a market leading rate of exchange too.

Feel free to get in touch for a no obligation discussion about your specific needs by filling in the form below and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

EU summit to influence the Sterling to Euro rates this weekend

EU summit to influence the Sterling to Euro rates this weekend

Sterling to Euro rates rose slightly during yesterday’s trading session following some positive news surrounding the Brexit. President of the European Council Donald Tusk announced on social media that the draft agreement had been agreed in principle which is good news and hopefully means talks can progress this weekend at the latest EU summit due to be held in Brussels.

The impact on Sterling to Euro rates

The Pound briefly touched above 1.13 and although the gains were short lived the Sterling remained relatively strong against the Euro throughout yesterday afternoon.

One stumbling block for the talks to progress this weekend could be Spain’s issue with Gibraltar. They are looking for assurances over Gibraltar and have threatened to veto any agreement until a clearer picture comes out.

Italian Budget causes problems for the Euro

Brexit is clearly the over-riding factor for the movement of Sterling to Euro exchange rates, however they are also being influenced by what is happening in Italy.

The European Commission has rejected Italy’s amendment to its budget proposal and this could mean that the EU could impose fines on the country which will likely cause tensions between both sides.

Over the next two weeks the EU will be left to decide what they do in terms of any sanctions against Italy and as we are in unknown territory it will be interesting to see what will happen in terms of coming to a resolution.

Previously, both France and Germany have both broken guidelines set out by the EU without being penalised so if the EU decides to carry out any penalty this is likely to cause some upset in Europe as many will see this as favouritism.

Eurozone economic data

Yesterday it was announced that European consumer confidence figures hit their lowest level since 2017 falling to -3.9 which was worse than expected by -0.9.

Earlier this morning Eurozone Services and Manufacturing data for November both came out worse than expected and this has seen the Sterling to Euro rate rise slightly already this morning.

Overall the most important news which will influence Sterling vs the Euro will be this weekend’s EU summit, so make sure you’re well prepared for a lot of volatility ahead.

If you have any questions about Sterling to Euro rates or would like to discuss a currency transfer in more detail please feel free to send me a message directly using the form below and I respond to you personally:

Pound vs euro forecast: Will the pound continue to fall against the euro?

Pound to Euro Forecast: Brexit Uncertainty Continues Following PM's House of Commons Defeat

In today’s pound vs euro forecast we look at the events that could affect exchange rates in the short-term. Over the last 2 weeks pound vs euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates have plummeted 3 cents. For clients buying property abroad this movement makes a €200,000 purchase £4,600 more expensive.

Vote of no confidence holding back the pound

The reason for the decline is because Theresa May’s Conservative Party are not backing the Prime Minister’s Brexit plan. Over the last 7 days reports have emerged that a vote of no confidence could be on the horizon, however to date this hasn’t materialized. I expect this story to be back in mainstream media next week.

My reasoning for my calls of a vote of no confidence is that Theresa May will travel back to Brussels on Saturday for last minute Brexit talks before the planned emergency EU Summit on Sunday. If its the case that Theresa May makes last minute concessions that could be the final straw, which could force a leadership contest.

In addition German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the media that if a deal is not struck before the Summit she will boycott the meeting. This could have major repercussions on the UK and consequently pound vs euro rates. Her reasoning is that she does not want Theresa May to try to negotiate eleventh hour concessions and she also wants to put a stop to the debate between European Governments in regards to fishing rights.

The next couple of days could be key for pound vs euro exchange rates in the months to come. If it’s the case that the summit is cancelled, I believe the UK PM is treading a fine line and her days could be numbered. Ultimately the UK have had 2 years to agree a deal and leaving it until the final hour could become extremely costly for the UK, the pound and the Prime Minister.

Buying euros

For clients that are buying euros in the upcoming months, it’s important to understand that major fluctuations should be expected. If the UK and EU fail to come to an agreement, I don’t believe both parties will allow a ‘no deal’, therefore I believe it will be back to the negotiating table but before that there will be a leadership contest and worse case scenario a General Election.

For more information on pound vs euro rates or how Brexit could impact your currency exchange and to find out live buying prices from feel free to get in contact. You can send me a message directly using the form below:

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