Pound to Euro forecast – Brexit limbo and the effect on GBP/EUR rates

Pound to US dollar rate falls to a 5-month low, almost hitting the 1.25's as Brexit woes continue

Sterling to Euro Forecast – Brexit Uncertainty Increases

This morning Theresa May is expected to update ministers regarding her position on the current Brexit strategy when she chairs a meeting of her Cabinet today.

It has been rumoured that if she names a date of resignation it could boost support for her Brexit deal. There have been no comments from Downing Street in regards to Mrs May’s resigning at this stage.

Theresa May has suffered defeat twice when her Brexit deal has been put to the vote in Parliament and it is still unclear whether she will bring it back a third time this week. Mrs May has said it will only be put before Parliament if it has sufficient support.

It seems one of the major concerns for MPs is related to whether Theresa May will to be involved in the next phase of Brexit talks, trade negotiations, following the extension of Article 50.

May perhaps did not make the wisest move last week blaming the need for a Brexit extension on MPs. There have been rumours of a plot to oust her. If this was the case this could hit Sterling value hard, adding more uncertainty to the situation.

May had invited those against her deal to Chequers to assess whether she can gain support for her deal to then put it before Parliament. At present there does not seem to have been any significant progress.

MPs are expected to speak today in order to set a schedule for a series of votes on alternatives to May’s Brexit plan which is obviously a concern for the PM. There could be as many as six other options to the current deal.

How could Brexit affect exchange rates?

It is now more difficult than ever to predict which how Brexit could affect the Pound’s value. I am surprised Sterling is holding up so well against the majority of the major currencies.

The pressure is now on to come up with a solution in a limited period of time. A resignation from the PM would no doubt add to the volatility on GBP/EUR rates. If you have to buy Sterling short term it maybe wise to consider a Stop/Loss order to protect yourself should a no deal scenario become more apparent. It is important to remember current rates of exchange are still impressive, the GBP/EUR rate has a very strong resistance point at 1.15 for over 20 months.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. you can contact me directly using the form below:

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

What will happen to the Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate as 29th March approaches? Brexit latest

Sterling exchange rates have started the week by remaining fairly steady as we enter crunch time for Theresa May and the UK, coming into the last two weeks of Brexit talks.

Yesterday, news that the Speaker of the House John Bercow was not prepared to allow yet another attempt at getting a meaningful vote through did lead to a slight drop off in the value of the Pound, but there are still various paths that Brexit could take over the next few weeks. We only have 10 days left before the deadline.

The Brexit deal could still be approved

We still cannot rule out Theresa May having her Brexit deal go through Parliament, even with John Bercow’s latest ruling. Prime Minister May is still locked in talks with the DUP and other members of Parliament that are currently against the deal. If she can turn enough heads then Parliament can overturn John Bercow’s ruling as long as they have a majority. This is quite a way off being possible yet but should she manage to pull this off then I would expect Sterling strength due to the certainty it brings back to the UK.

A Brexit delay could be agreed with the EU

The most likely outcome at present is that Prime Minister May will end up approaching the EU for an agreement to delay the Brexit date. It had been suggested this could be for as long as two years but could just as likely be for a much shorter period.

It would be no surprise to see this also give the Pound a slight lift, due to the fact that it could suggest that Brexit could end up being a totally different beast. It also opens up the door for the possibility of a second EU referendum or even a general election before any further major changes. It could also lead to the possibility of Brexit not even happening at all.

Either way if the delay was for a long period of time I would be surprised to not see Theresa May step aside and to let someone else take the reins.

The EU could refuse to delay Brexit

In order to delay Brexit all 27 EU countries need to come to an agreement that they are happy for this to happen. There is a chance that the request for a delay could be refused and this would be one option that could lead to Sterling weakness.

A refusal for a delay will almost back the UK into accepting the deal they currently have or to face the prospect of leaving with no deal.

No deal has been the big worry for investors and speculators as it brings a great deal of uncertainty and could lead to Sterling losing a lot of value until there is greater certainty on future plans.

There are also other twists and turns that could happen over the next 10 days and I personally would not rule anything out at this stage as we just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, so it would be foolish to make a stern prediction.

It does seem that most avenues to lead to Sterling strength but if you are in the process of a large overseas purchase, or bringing a large volume of foreign currency back into the UK then you need to make sure that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side. With all the politics involved you need to make sure that you are ready and in a position to move quickly should the opportunity arise.

If you would like to speak with someone here at Pound Sterling Forecast who will be able to explain the various options you have available, along with making sure that your current provider or bank are offering you the most for your money in this key time, then feel free to fill in the form below and we will make sure we get in touch for a no obligation discussion with you shortly.

Theresa May loses meaningful vote and Sterling loses value – Two more key votes this week

pound to euro forecast Best time in 4 months to sell Euros for Pounds

Last night saw Theresa May lose her meaningful vote once again and this has led to uncertainty for the UK and indeed Sterling exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates

Yesterday morning we saw Sterling breach the 1.17 mark against the Euro and traders seemed to be filled with confidence that a deal for the UK could be on the horizon.

As the morning progressed Sterling then started to weaken and this was due to news that the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox had suggested that the new changes were not totally legally binding.

He then continued on to inform the House of Commons that they had a duty of care to the UK and to be very wary of voting down the deal, as although the new terms were not legally binding, if the EU did not act in good faith there were other options available to resolve the matter.

This didn’t seem to turn many heads in the right direction as news broke late last night that Prime Minister May had lost the vote by a margin of 149, suggesting she is still a very long way away from getting her Brexit deal approved.

No deal Brexit vote expected today

Today now brings about a new vote on whether Parliament would like to leave the EU with ‘no deal’. It is unlikely that we will see this get voted through as this could be seen from the outside as very damaging to the economy, but you can never rule these things out!

Personally, unless it does start to look like we may see the no deal vote go through, I expect a slightly less volatile trading day, but the rest of the week will most likely be extremely volatile again.

The rest of the week is expected to be volatile

Tomorrow, assuming today’s vote does not go through will lead to a vote on whether or not Parliament will seek an extension to Article 50. Last night Prime Minister May suggested that if this is the route that we are to take then the EU will only approve this if we can suggest why we would like the extension. More time to negotiate may not wash with the EU so other options, including a second referendum will have to be debated. I think these kind of subjects could lead to great volatility for Pound to Euro exchange rates.

If you are in the position where you need to exchange Pounds into Euros or bring Euros back into Pounds then it is key that you have your eye on the market at all times. If you have a busy lifestyle and cannot afford to watch the market, which moves by the second, then it is key that you have a proactive broker with various options available to you.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we can not only help with information but we can facilitate the trade for you too, we have numerous contract options available for clients such as limit orders, forward contracts and stop losses, designed to help you in these testing times.

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will be happy to discuss your personal position in more detail.

Crucial week ahead for the Pound vs the Euro owing to votes in the House of Commons

Pound to Canadian Dollar forecast Brexit remains in Limbo

We are now just one day from potentially the biggest day of the year for Sterling Euro exchange rates as the House of Commons are due to meet to vote on the latest Brexit deal on offer by Theresa May.

Only last week the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came back from Europe with little changes made to the current Irish backstop agreement and therefore it looks highly unlikely that the vote will go through tomorrow.

If this happens then the next step will be to vote on whether or not to look at voting in favour of a no deal Brexit, which is also highly unlikely to happen. This will then mean that the chances of Article 50 being extended go up and it will be interesting to see how this is reflected in Sterling exchange rates.

I think we could possibly see Sterling go in an upwards direction against the Euro if a no deal is completely removed from the debate as this will provide a lot of assurances for British business.

However, it does not remove the uncertainty as to how long the Brexit talks will continue so we could be in for a lot of movements on GBP/EUR exchange rates during the course of this week so make sure you’re well prepared to act quickly if you have a currency transfer to make.

As we saw towards the end of last week there was a lot of movement on Friday afternoon with Sterling Euro rates moving up and down by over half a cent owing to the uncertainty of this week’s potential vote.

Over the weekend some Tory MPs have urged the Prime Minister to potentially delay the vote, but with less than three weeks to go before the UK is due to leave the European Union, times is clearly running out so to delay this vote could cause huge problems politically for the Prime Minister.

With so much uncertainty this week concerning Pound Euro exchange rates we could see a lot of movement on rates making your currency transfer more or less expensive so if you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound Sterling Forecast: Will the Pound strengthen further against the Euro?

GBP under pressure as Brexit progress stalls

Brexit continues to be the key factor on Sterling value and I would expect current levels to remain until voting on Theresa May’s current Brexit deal begins which is due to take place before 12th March, although it is more than likely to take place on the day itself.

Unless the PM gains concessions from Brussels on the Irish border I think her Brexit deal will fail and will not be voted through by MPs. If this is the case a vote will be held the following day on whether or not Parliament will be willing to leave the EU without a deal.

I think this is unlikely and if that is the case we will then see a third vote the following day. This will concern whether or not there should be an extension to the March 29th deadline.
I think an extension will be the likely outcome and this could cause a further rise in the Pound’s value despite this being factored somewhat into current levels on GBP/EUR.

The PM could have something agreed behind closed doors with Jean-Claude Junker which could see an eleventh hour deal, but I feel this is less likely than an extension to Article 50. I believe the probability of a no deal has now dropped substantially.

Is now the best time to sell Euros?

If you are sitting on Euros with the hope of a large fall in the Pound I would be wary. You are essentially relying on a no deal scenario which now seems far less likely. Morgan Stanley stated recently there is less than 5% chance of a no deal Brexit scenario occurring and Parliament have been vocal their intention is to make sure this does not occur. There is the potential for movement in your favour as negotiations intensify, but I do not think there will be huge gains. The risk is if news filters through that an agreement has been reached on the Irish border we could see significant gains for the Pound which could prove costly.

If you are Euro seller and your funds are not yet available a forward contact should be considered. This essentially allows you to book your currency at current market levels with a 10% deposit and then specify a date to pay the balance.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in this Pound to Euro forecast, or would like more information on GBP/EUR transfers, please use the form below to ask a question, I’ll respond personally to discuss your query.

GBP/EUR rates: One week until the meaningful vote and the impact upon Sterling vs Euro

Pound vs Euro rates: Conservative leadership contest and impact on GBP/EUR rates

Sterling has been trading close to a 2 year high against the Euro in the last week as it appears as though the latest Brexit news is helping to support the value of the Pound against a number of different currencies.

Will Article 50 be extended?

The likelihood is that we could see an extension to Article 50 and this has helped the Pound to increase as investors look to second guess what may happen in the next few weeks.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested that she is willing to allow more time for the talks to progress and with just one week before the UK is set to hold its next ‘meaningful vote’ in the House of Commons we could be in for a very volatile period coming for Sterling exchange rates particularly against the Euro.

How will the Brexit vote affect GBP/EUR rates?

It has been made evident since early December that MPs are not happy with the current terms being offered by the Prime Minister, and with less than a month to go Theresa May is running out of time to get her proposed Brexit deal through.

If we see another defeat next week then this moves us to either the option of a ‘no deal’ Brexit or an extension. I personally cannot see a ‘no deal’ happening so in my mind the likelihood will be for an extension and I think this could move the Pound in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Further Sterling strength could be on the horizon

As we saw over two years ago when the original EU referendum took place, the reason why the Pound plummeted against the Euro was because of the risk to trade. An extension allows a period of relief and this is why I think the Pound could move up against the Euro in the next few weeks, providing some better opportunities for those looking to send money to Europe.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates when transferring currency. If you would like a free quote, or just has some questions about GBP/EUR rates, you can contact me directly using the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP find further support against the EUR this week?

Pound to Euro Forecast - Brexit Extended

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the outlook for GBP/EUR exchange rates during the week ahead. The Pound has started the week on the front foot against the Euro, finding plenty of support above 1.15.

With further gains this morning pushing the Pound to Euro rate up to a high 1.1591, investors will now be asking themselves whether this positive trend is set to continue over the coming days.

Pound to Euro forecast: Brexit talks key to Pound value

Today’s meeting between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, could hold the key to any further improvement for the Pound this week.

Their much anticipated meeting will be monitored closely by the markets, as the two key figureheads try to find common ground over the Irish backstop agreement. This seems to be the final major sticking point between UK MPs voting through a Brexit deal or not, ahead of next month’s impending deadline. With March 29th fast approaching, the two will be under pressure to find a resolution or they face being left in the unenviable position of having to agree upon an extension to Article 50, or even worse having to accept that the UK leaves the EU without a deal being in place.

The threat of a no-deal has been enough to restrict any major upturn for the Pound in recent months, whilst it has also helped to protect the Euro from any heavy losses, despite growing concerns surrounding the Eurozone economy.

If Theresa May manages to somehow push through any revised Brexit deal, then I anticipate the EUR/GBP rate to dip sharply, with the markets now likely factoring in the chances of Article 50 being extended.

Barnier has already highlighted how fraught the negotiations are likely to be in the final stages, which indicates that we are set for increased volatility for the Pound to Euro forecast.

If Euro sellers in particular are holding off on selling their currency positions around the current levels, then I can only imagine that they are pinning most of their hopes on a no-deal Brexit, a scenario I feel is required if we are to see the single currency return towards its post referendum highs.

For more information on what is affecting GBP/EUR rates, or to discuss anything you have read in my Pound to Euro forecast, please feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at why the GBP/EUR rate has been in the ascendancy over the last couple of weeks. Investors seem to have become more confident over the future outlook on Brexit. Expectations for Brexit are continuing to be shaped by political developments in the UK and abroad. The pound is likely to remain under pressure despite having risen quite dramatically lately.

More MPs expected to defect from Labour

A key factor for us to consider overnight has been the news that an increasing number of Labour MPs are looking to defect if Corbyn will not support a second Referendum in the weeks ahead. This could see increasing support for the Independence Group which is in favour of a second Referendum on Brexit.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Pound could lose value due to uncertainty

The pound might lose value in the ensuing uncertainty, as investors await a potentially increasingly uncertain situation. The expectation for results on a second Brexit vote are unclear, it is highly possible Leave would win once again. According to a You Gov poll, quoted in the Economist, over 90% of Leave votes (in a survey of 90,000 participants), would still vote Leave.

The margin of losses for Remain last time were so fractional as to make it very worrying over which direction to expect a second Brexit vote would take. The Pound to Euro rate is buoyant on the chances of a no-deal Brexit having reduced, fresh weakness on the Euro as Trump talks up European trade tariffs has aided the move on GBP/EUR.

Overall, I expect the Pound to Euro rate will continue to remain choppy in March and there is still a very large chance it will dip back to retest the 1.10 levels. The 7th March and 21st March are key dates with the former the ECB, European Central Bank decision, and the latter, the Bank of England meeting.

Pound to Euro rates are far from out of the woods and both buyers and sellers will have plenty to discuss in the weeks ahead as we await final news on Brexit.

Next week is the meaningful vote from Parliament, this could see lots of volatility on the pairing, the vote looks likely to be defeated which will open up lots of possibilities on Brexit and also GBP/EUR rates.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in my latest Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

Pound to Euro forecast: GBP to EUR Finds Support over 1.15

Pound to euro rate falls prior to the European elections

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the recent GBP to EUR strength amidst a week full of meetings between British and EU leaders fine tuning the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Rates for GBP to EUR have risen over 1.15 again in the hope that a new agreement on the legal terms of the Irish backstop can be reached.

British politics is seeing a very interesting time at present and this week has seen a number of defections from both the Labour Party and Conservative Party to an independent group.

This is important as it changes the balance in the House of Commons and could make it harder for the minority Government in power to push through key votes in Parliament. As such a general election does move one step closer if there remains a stalemate in the House of Commons and it is unable to push its business through. Rates for GBP to EUR are likely to see a volatile few weeks ahead at this important Brexit juncture and with all the political uncertainties that go with it.

A meaningful vote on Brexit is expected to take place next Wednesday and should determine where GBP to EUR rates head next. This is the next milestone ahead of the 29th March withdrawal date.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will Euro exchange rates weaken further?

Euro exchange rates don’t have the brightest outlook with Italy in recession and a very gloomy outlook for the German auto sector. This morning sees the release of Purchasing Managers Index numbers for the manufacturing and services sector which should give some projection as to the future health of the Eurozone economy.

EU inflation data tomorrow may also influence EUR to GBP rates and has been a major concern for the EU in recent years. The European Central Bank (ECB) have been battling with weak inflation for a sustained period and today’s ECB minutes from the January meeting may offer some clues as to the central bank’s thinking. The markets had been expecting to see the first interest rate hike towards the end of 2019, but with an economic slowdown both in the EU and globally then this in my view is starting to look distinctly unlikely and could result in Euro weakness.

If you have any questions about my Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to use the form below to contact me directly. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

Pound to Euro exchange rates have pushed back over 1.14 ahead of a volatile couple of weeks, with another important vote in British politics approaching. UK Prime Minister Teresa May has written to all MPs within the Conservative Party to try and rally support for her Brexit deal. A meaningful vote will be held in Parliament on the 27th February and if she is unable to find support for the existing Brexit deal then there will be another amendment put forward to be tabled by Yvette Cooper and Sir Oliver Letwin.

This amendment would see an extension of Article 50 which would mean Britain wouldn’t leave the EU on 29th March. This could potentially create more uncertainty for the pound. Whether or not this vote would prove successful remains to be seen, but it is clear that there is a great deal of uncertainty ahead for pound to Euro exchange rates with so many differing outcomes on Brexit.

EU will not re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agreement

For the time being Brexit negotiations continue to try and find an alternative to the controversial Irish backstop. However the EU insists that the withdrawal agreement cannot be re-opened and hence this still leaves the prospect of a no deal Brexit on the table. It will be interesting to see what comes out of these recent negotiations between the UK and EU. Anything positive that would give legal certainty that the backstop would be temporary could help get the deal over the line in Parliament.

Whilst the Prime Minister may lose the meaningful vote it is worth remembering that it has been enshrined in law that if no agreement is reached then the UK will be leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This could see considerable disruption in the short term for the British economy and for pound to Euro exchange rates.

Euro exchange rates impacted by Eurozone issues

The Euro has also been receiving a lot of attention of late with some very big changes happening to the economic picture. With Italy now officially in recession and so soon after its last recession the outlook doesn’t look optimistic, especially with Germany and France also seeing a downward trend in its growth forecasts.

Germany’s large export markets to the UK and China particularly for vehicles could see big problems for the EU’s biggest economy if trade with China slows further and if Brexit is disorderly. For the Euro the outcomes on the trade talks between the US and China and what happens with Brexit will play a major factor in the strength of Euro exchange rates.

Please do feel free to use the form below if you’d like to ask me a question about pound to Euro exchange rates. I’ll be happy to contact you personally.

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