This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:
This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)
13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.
21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.
23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.
Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.
Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.
10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.
Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!
09:00 – ECB monthly Report – The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.
Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.
12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.
13:30pm U.S Inflation– Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.
In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly [email protected] to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.