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Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead sees some important data releases for the Pound, Euro, U.S Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar… What is out and when?

By
Daniel Wright
-
GBP USD Exchange Rate Falls Amid Murky Economic Backdrop

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report – The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation– Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly [email protected] to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

QE or no QE……….The hottest talking point of the day!

By
Daniel Wright
-
GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Following on from Jonathan’s post and to show just how undecided even the most ‘in the know’ people are, I personally feel we will see QE at 12:00 and some Sterling weakness….. Who will come out on top with this one, myself or Jonathan?????

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… [email protected]

Resolution for Greece looms but what will happen with the Euro against the Pound and US Dollar

By
Daniel Wright
-
GBP USD Exchange Rate Falls Amid Murky Economic Backdrop

Today was one of the busiest days on the trading floor this year and mainly due to the big decline in sterling exchange rates. When there is major movements in rates that is when we are at our busiest either helping clients decide to capitalise on a gain or stop their loss. The pound took a big
hit against nearly every major currency the day before the big interest rate decision in the UK & Euro Zone. All our regular readers will be well aware of what may occur tomorrow should the Bank of England initiate any further QE. The decision is at 12pm tomorrow so please keep in close contact with us so we can be your eyes and ears on the market.

Just as things had looked like getting better for the pound against the Euro spiking at 1.2098 a couple of days ago, sterling has crashed down to 1.1920 today. Euro exchange rates spiked against most major currencies bringing back better opportunities to sell your Euros to buy GBP or USD. We have been looking at events in Greece for days now wondering if they will find a resolution to cut their spending to the tune of 3 billion Euros which will enable them to get the desperatelyneeded bailout funds they require.

It seems that Greece has finally agreed to the austerity cuts but what will happen with Euro exchange rates? The issues in Europe are far from being over. To many countries are in too deep but this latest resolution will probably strengthen the Euro against a range of currencies in the very
near term. I do not see long term Euro strength and we may see the pound weaken to 1.17/1.18ish over the course of the next week and the USD to weaken to 1.34. I would then expect to see the Euro weaken to levels of 1.20+ against the pound and dip back below 1.30 against the USD.

If you are selling Euros to buy any major currency you may find that today’s agreement may bring that small glimmer of light for you to achieve that little bit more than what has been available over the last two months. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by. Feel free to contact me at [email protected] and we can look at your personal situation and see what options may be suited to your circumstances. In terms of the rate we will offer you please compare what we can offer you to your bank. We will do our upmost to make you a significant saving over your high street bank. Please call us to get a comparison rate.

 

What will happen to the Pound against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and Swiss Franc in the near future?

By
Daniel Wright
-
GBP USD Exchange Rate Falls Amid Murky Economic Backdrop
Key market mover this week:  BOE
Interest rate decision, further QE. On-going Greek debt agreement.

Important Data– If you are considering a trade soon, it’s worth being aware of:

Tomorrow 09:30am – A host of Manufacturing and Industrial Production
data along with Trade balance figures for the U.K This may throw anything up,
production figures have not been too bad of late however as per usual with
the U.K as soon as things seem on the up we tend to get figures that come out
that knock us straight back down again, so be very wary of this one.

Tomorrow 12:00 – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision  No change in rates is
expected however there is continuing speculation regarding further
Quantitative Easing. Regular traders will be aware that any mention of QE
tends to weaken the Pound so should we see this tomorrow then we may see
Sterling weakness against all major currencies

 Tomorrow 12:45pm – European Central Bank Interest Rate decision There is a slight chance of a rate cut in the Eurozone tomorrow however most major analysts expect the
ECB to hold off for the time being. Key will be the press conference
following the speech which may suggest how the ECB are planning to attack the
crisis going forward.

On-going yet imminent: Greek debt agreement  Signs are this is now
close to being tied up and signed off, in past months whenever an
agreement/resolution (no matter how little I believe most think it will work)
is put into place, investor’s confidence in the Euro rises and in turn the
Euro tends to strengthen. By the sound of it the agreement may be finally
signed off on the weekend by Greek Parliament however anything may happen in
the meantime.

Below is a further outline of
recent trends and themes for some of our main currency pairs.
Market Overview 

GBPEUR

**Still close to 16 month
high buying euros**

 It would not surprise me to see
the Euro make a minor fight back in the next week or so, I do not expect
major Euro strength however unless there is a rate cut in Europe then QE
for the Pound and some certainty on Greece may well give it a nudge in the
right direction.

GBPUSD

**2 month high for buying
Dollars**

 This pairing has been a hard one
to predict of late, with all of the uncertainty for Greece one would expect
the USD to have gained ground however we have seen quite the opposite over
the past week or so. Personally I feel that the mention of no interest rate
hike until late 2014 will hold the Dollar back from major strength however
I still think it will get stronger again against the Pound in the next week
or so.
       GBPZAR

GBPAUD

GBPNZD

**27 year high for selling
AUD**

 At present these perceived
‘riskier’ currencies are winning the battle and seemingly strengthening
with great ease. The AUD is breaking long term records, the NZD is closing
in on them and the ZAR has recovered back an awful long way. The main issue
is that this has happened during major uncertainty within Europe.
Uncertainty usually weakens such currencies so I would be a little wary
that when we do see potentially positive news for Europe and negative for
the U.K we could see all of these currencies strengthen further and the
Pound to get even lower against them, however anything can happen and
markets aren’t moving how they are supposed to at present!
GBP-CHF There is continuing speculation
that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) may move to devalue the Franc again soon
as rates are edging closer to the artificially pegged benchmark they set
against the Euro of 1.20. If this happens

For the best exchange
rates … Contact me
Daniel
WrightAssociate DirectorForeign Currency Direct		 [email protected]0800 328 5884 / +44 1494 725353

Get in touch today…

Eurozone break up could be disastrous for the UK. Currently good levels for buying Euros

By
Daniel Wright
-

Good Morning readers,

So with events in Europe still no nearer with a resolution for Greece cutting its debt a think tank in the UK has stated that a Eurozone meltdown would plunge Britain back into a two-year recession and send unemployment soaring above 10% This came out from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

As unlikely it is that we should see a complete break up and failure of Europe it is a stark reminder of the close ties that the UK has with Europe and no other country in the world would be harmed more than this occurring. This is probably the main reason that sterling exchange rates have not strengthened against the Euro by as much as some other major currencies.

The next year or so will be very interesting to see how things pan out but I would expect to see the pound trading from as low as about 1.1450-1.23 over the course of this year. The pound is up trading at 1.2050 at the moment after increasing this week from a low of 1.1899. It goes to show how quickly things can move on the markets.

We just had UK PMI data out for the construction industry and figures came in well below expectation but the markets have not really moved on the back of it. Plus this morning there has been billions of Euros of French and Spanish debt sold at auction (bonds) They managed to sell the amount they were looking for so this may strengthen the Euro at some point during the course of the day.

Going into next week be very cautious of the interest rate decision day next Thursday for both the UK and the Euro. Over the last 6 months or so this has been a bit of an anti-climax but if we see a rate cut in Europe or more QE in the UK then we could see a big movement next week.

If you feel you will need to buy or sell Euros or any other currency you may wish to get in contact with me at [email protected] discuss your requirement and I can explain all the options that are available to you.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us
and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me
directly at [email protected].

I look forward to speaking with you.

Pound climbing against the Dollar – Dropping against the Australian Dollar, Thai Baht, South African Rand and the ‘riskier currencies’ as investors start to take a punt again…. Will this last in the current economic climate?

By
Daniel Wright
-
Pound to US Dollar rates influenced by political uncertainty in the UK

The Pound is starting to climb back against the Dollar which suggests that investors are getting a little confident again but how long will this last?

With a major announcement regarding Greek debt imminent we could see absolutle yanything happen this week, however the longer the European crisis is kept away from being major headline news, the more these ‘riskier’ currencies may continue to climbe against the Pound. If you are looking to Buy South African Rand or Australian Dollars then further European problems should bring you the opportunity you have been waiting for, and in my opinion Europe is a ticking timebomb and merely keeps getting shoved under the carpet until it rears its ugly head again and never has been fully dealt with (and probably won’t be for years).

With this in mind, don’t get too greedy as I cannot see AUD rates suddenly flying up by tens of cents so if a spike does occur (depending on the reasons behind it) then be prepared to lock into a rate.

The GBP-USD rate is indeed now creeping up too, in times of trouble globally the Dollar tends to benefit, in calmer tides investors tend to pull funds back out of the Dollar and are more willing to take a risk again.

The best position to be in if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out is to have someone in the know being your eyes and ears on the market. I can assist you either by highlighting opportunites with a phone call or by placing a limit order in the market for you, a limit order is where you decide on a rate you would like to achieve and should it be achievable even for a matter of seconds it is bought out automatically for you, eliminating the risk of you missing out on a spike overnight. A limit order is completely free and can be cancelled or ammended at any point providing the order has not already been filled.

Email me directly [email protected] or set up  a free, no obligation  trading facility by clicking here and using my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.

I shall then give you a call and explain how to proceed.

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