Volatile period ahead for Pound vs Euro with Brexit just three months away

Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

The Pound is close to its lowest level all year as we are now just three months away from the deadline when the UK is due to officially leave the European Union.

The latest key date will come in the next fortnight when MPs will meet once again to vote on the current Brexit deal.

Earlier this month the vote was postponed after it emerged that Theresa May clearly didn’t have enough support to get the Brexit deal through and since then she has tried to lobby the EU to make some amendments to the deal on offer.

Could the UK stay in the European Union?

What has emerged during the course of this month is that there is clearly a lot of support in favour of remaining in the European Union. At the moment MPs have made it clear that they are in favour of staying in the EU. The EU clearly wants to make things difficult for the UK to leave and indeed it could be argued that as Theresa May previously voted to remain, is the plan to keep challenging the deal until we get towards the end of March?

The European Court of Justice has said on a number of occasions that the UK will be allowed to revoke Article 50 until the end of the two year period which ends in March 2019 so if we face the prospect of a no deal could the UK revoke Article 50?

Theresa May has committed to lead us through Brexit but if she is unable to get the Brexit deal through parliament I think she could end up stepping down as she will not be able to complete her mandate, so could we see another leader by Spring 2019 or indeed a general election coming by then?

What’s next for Pound vs Euro rates?

There is a lot of uncertainty over the next few months and this has caused the Pound to remain under pressure. The future of Pound vs Euro rates will be heavily reliant on how the first quarter of 2019 goes in terms of the Brexit discussions.

In the short term I think we could briefly dip below 1.10 on Pound vs Euro exchange rates, but I think the losses will be limited as GBP/EUR has remained between 1.10-1.15.

Indeed, during this year the foreign exchange markets still appear to be adopting a wait and see approach as to what may happen when or if the Brexit does take place. My current suspicion is that we could either see a second referendum or Article 50 revoked.

Whatever happens I expect a very volatile next three months for the Pound vs Euro so it may be worth getting your currency organised in the short term to avoid the heightened risks of what may happen.

For a free quote you can contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the Pound to Euro rate drop below 1.10? What may happen to GBP/EUR in early January?

Will Sterling drop below 1.10 against the Euro? What may happen in early January?

The Pound has remained reasonably flat against the Euro this week as we enter the festive season and I feel that this may be the situation until the end of the trading year, unless any large surprises pop up.

With very little news due to come out from Brexit now that Parliament are due to take their recess period the market will be reliant on general sentiment and any surprise news that hits the media.

Generally at this time of year you can find that trading levels are much thinner, so if there are any developments with Brexit or any market moving releases, then you may see the rates move a little more than normal.

Will Sterling Euro drop below 1.10?

Many of my clients are now asking me if I feel the rate could drop back below a key resistance level of 1.10 and I have to say that in my opinion the answer is yes. Whether or not it stays below 1.10 for a long period of time will be dependent on how things go for Theresa May in her Parliamentary vote. As it stands if you look at both sides of GBP/EUR politically and in terms of economic performance the Pound has more chance of dropping than rising.

UK growth downgraded

Growth expectations were yesterday downgraded for the UK by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, from 0.3% to 0.2% and even matters like the Gatwick drone issue will not help economic performance for December as airlines will have a huge headache to try and overcome.

Parliament expected to vote down current Brexit deal

The Parliamentary vote on Brexit is due to happen in mid January and I really do not see how Theresa May is going to get enough support to push through her deal. I cannot see her getting enough improvement on its current terms to turn enough heads.

I would expect Sterling to wobble in advance of this vote, however it would not be a surprise to see the Pound strengthen after it, even is she loses as although it does open up the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit it does also give the potential of Theresa May leaving and someone else taking the reigns. This may delay or even cancel Article 50 which could actually give Sterling a huge boost.

All in all if you have a large exchange to make in the near future involving buying or selling Euros then it is key that you deal with a proactive and efficient currency broker that can help you negotiate these choppy waters ahead. We here at Pound Sterling Forecast can help you with this, along with helping you secure a highly competitive rate when you do come to actually lock in your exchange.

Fill in the form below and I will be happy to contact you personally and to help you tailor a game plan for your specific situation.

Brexit news and Bank of England meeting to set tone for Pound to Euro rates

Brexit news and Bank of England meeting to set the tone for the Pound to Euro rates

The Pound to Euro rate (GBP/EUR) has remained in a very tight range during the last few days as it appears as though the foreign exchange markets are adopting a wait and see approach towards Brexit.

There have been little economic data announcements over the last few days and this has kept Pound to Euro exchange rates from moving by too much.

However, it appears as though things are moving behind the scenes with Theresa May’s Cabinet looking to create contingent plans in the event of a no deal Brexit.

One positive to come out during the last few days for the political situation is that leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that, “under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act I will always support the Conservative Government”.

He has been rather outspoken in recent weeks about his dislike for Theresa May’s Brexit deal and he was one of the politicians who was part of the group who wrote letters to have a vote of no confidence, so a change in his stance has come as a welcome breath of fresh air.

The next vote in the House of Commons is now due to take place in the third week of January so we could see some very big movements this time next month. If you’re comfortable with where Pound to Euro rates are currently trading and would like to avoid the uncertainty then it may be worth getting your currency organised at the moment.

Bank of England comments could affect Pound to Euro rates

The Bank of England are due to meet tomorrow and although I cannot see any change to the current monetary policy the tone of the comments immediately after the announcement will be key as to how Sterling will perform.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been rather outspoken previously about how problematic the Brexit could be for the UK economy so it will be important to see what is said tomorrow afternoon if you’re in the process of making a Pound to Euro transfer.

We end the week with UK GDP data due out on Friday morning so expect to see a lot of movement on Pound to Euro rates on Friday, so make sure you’re well prepared.

For more information on Pound to Euro rates or for a free quote you can contact me directly using the form below:

Will Pound to Euro rates drop below 1.10 before Christmas?

Will GBPEUR rise further this week?

In this article we look at whether Pound to Euro rates could drop below 1.10 before Christmas? The big news this week is whether Jeremy Corbyn will succeed in engineering a no-confidence vote in the Government. There is growing pressure on Mrs May to come up with the goods and deliver on Brexit, or to take the matter to parliament for them to decide. This could very easily see the pound lower as the market seeks to adjust to the likelihood of further negative news.

There is a growing belief that Brexit could be delayed, cancelled or possibly given back to the people to decide. A key aspect gaining popularity is of course the likelihood of a second referendum. This is a very difficult matter to broach and might see excessive volatility for the pound as the market has to try and second guess the possible implications from this factor.

The pound is very much on the back-foot which might well see us lower if the uncertainty increases so it is well worth trying to track the news to keep up to date with the latest trends and themes. Clients with a position on GBP/EUR could see pound to euro rates drop below 1.10. I really do feel this is a likelihood now as the uncertainty for the UK’s position seems likely to persist.

I cannot see the UK or the pound benefiting from the predicted uncertainty ahead. This week will be crucial as an indicator as to what might be expected from Jeremy Corbyn and whether or not he can trigger a motion of no confidence in the Government and topple Mrs May.

Pound to euro rates could be in for a choppy period as the market sees less volatility and liquidity in the trading sessions. Investors will be less likely to wish to hold the pound as it is at risk of destabilising quickly, if events take a wrong turn.

For me, the risk still remains to the downside for the pound, if you have a currency transfer to consider buying or selling the pounds against the Euro, please do contact me to learn the latest news. You can use the form below to send me a message directly.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Theresa May stonewalled by Brussels

GBP/EUR rate hits new 22 month high of 1.1766

In today’s pound to euro forecast we discussed the latest events affecting the rates, starting with Theresa May’s Brexit deal which appears to stand little chance of passing through the House of Commons. The PM’s hopes of gaining assistance from EU leaders to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons have been dashed. She now must return home to face the wrath of her Party.

May’s intention was to head to the EU’s winter summit in Brussels to try and gain legal assurances that the Irish back-stop would be a temporary situation.

May stated the following upon her arrival, “I don’t expect an immediate breakthrough but what I do hope is that we can start work as quickly as possible on the assurances that are necessary”.

The response from Brussels was far from positive and they offered no legal assurances on the Irish back-stop. Apparently Mrs May offered one plan which was not to agree a conclusion date of the Irish back-stop, but she wanted a start date for the future trade relationship.

Shortly after the meeting a series of conclusions were reached by EU leaders without May.

It has been reported that one of the crucial draft lines to be removed was “The union stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided”. The line was replaced with the following, “Work on preparedness at all levels for the consequences of the UK’s withdrawal to be intensified, taking into account all possible outcomes”.

European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker stated the following, “We don’t want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation, that is crystal clear. We can add clarifications but no real changes. There will be no legally binding obligations imposed on the withdrawal treaty”.

What next for the pound to euro rate?

This is devastating news for the PM and brings us to the next question of what happens next? The House of Commons will not be happy and the vote has already been delayed due to the lack of support for the current Brexit deal.

There are several possible outcomes. A no deal, which would be negative for the pound, a general election which would also potentially be Sterling negative and a second referendum which could cause potential Sterling strength, although I wouldn’t say by much.

The official date for the deal to go through the House of Commons is 14th January but in it’s current status it looks as though there is zero chance of it going through. Jean Claude Junker’s comments also seem to make it clear there will be no amendments.

The Eurozone is currently in no healthy state with the situation in France and Italy, but Brexit continues to be the key factor on pound to euro rates. The pound is fragile, there is little justification for any significant Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

If you would like to discuss my latest pound to euro forecast, or would like to talk over your options for a currency transfer I can be contacted directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro Forecast – Theresa May wins the vote which gives the Pound a boost against the Euro

Pound to Euro exchange rate before Brexit and what will happen after 29th March?

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the events of this week and the factors affecting exchange rates. Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to survive the vote of no confidence yesterday evening with a majority of 83 votes and this has helped the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

The result showed 200-117 which highlights discontent in the Party but with a relatively strong majority this has given her the support, at least in the short term to lead the Party forward. She did however admit that she wouldn’t be standing for the next general election due to take place in 2022.

Indeed, the vote showed that she now has more votes in favour compared to during her leadership campaign a couple of years ago.

Theresa May has now gone to attend the EU summit in Brussels with leaders expected to arrive at around lunchtime. The main agenda point will clearly be that of Brexit and EU council President Donald Tusk has suggested that the EU are prepared to discuss further terms and perhaps adopt a different conclusion.

Brexit latest news

One of the main sticking points of the current deal on offer is that of the Irish backstop arrangement, which the DUP will categorically not support. Unless something can be changed I think the discussions will remain at a stalemate.

The real problem for the future of Brexit is that the House of Commons appear to be opposed to this deal and seem likely to oppose any future deals, which puts the Brexit in doubt.

With just over three months to agree terms the UK is running out of time to get things organised and I think the UK may even in time consider revoking Article 50 if they are unable to get the Brexit deal through Parliament before the end of March.

Theresa May’s survival is good news for the Pound to Euro forecast

The good news for those looking to send money to Europe though is that as Theresa May has managed to survive the no confidence vote this has helped the Pound gain some support after its collapse when Theresa May delayed the Brexit vote earlier this week.

In the short term I think we could see some further respite for the Pound as the European Central Bank are due to meet later on today. If the tone at the press conference is rather dovish I think we could see further gains for the Pound vs the Euro.

For further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Plummets 1.5% on Brexit Vote Delays

Pound Sterling Strength: Sterling Making Impressive Gains Against the Euro

In today’s GBP/EUR forecast we discuss the headline event of this week, the UK Parliament’s meaningful vote on Mrs May’s Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill, has been postponed. The news saw the pound sharply sold off as traders bet that the uncertainty would persist and there is now an increased likelihood of worse news to come.

Sterling to Euro rates hit a 4 month low nudging the 1.10 mark. GBP/EUR opened at 1.1180 before diving to 1.1050 by lunchtime, with a further fall to 1.1011 by mid-afternoon as the House of Commons questioned May on her actions.

Mrs May will now travel to Europe to meet with various leaders in a last-ditch attempt to salvage her deal, mainly to try and get concessions on the Irish backstop issue which has so far been a key issue preventing her from finalising support within her Party.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Plenty more news to come for the pound

Pound to Euro exchange rates will receive plenty more news this week as this situation unfolds, there is an EU Summit on Thursday where Brexit is not directly on the agenda, but may well be discussed.

Sterling looks set to continue to struggle against this negative backdrop of news, we also have a series of economic releases in the UK and the Eurozone to move rates. This morning is the latest UK Unemployment figures, one of the better pieces of news surrounding the UK economy.

Eurozone events that could affect the GBP/EUR forecast

Thursday sees the latest ECB, European Central Bank interest rate decision where market attention will be very much on the ECB and whether or not they will finally stop their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. With plenty of fresh political risks from Spain, Italy and France across the Eurozone, there is a risk of the ECB being more cautious.

Economic news too in the Eurozone has not been ideal, with Germany slowing and many concerned Italy could be headed for a recession. This could all lead to greater concerns for the ECB, which might prevent them from advancing their monetary plans. This would see the Euro weaker should it be the case.

Brexit news the main driver for GBP/EUR rates

The performance of GBP/EUR rates this week and ahead will be largely determined by the next direction on Brexit. There is now an increased possibility of either Mrs May being forced out by her Party or Parliament, an increased chance of a second referendum and also improved prospect of a no-deal.

Sterling will react heavily to the news so clients looking to buy Euros with sterling should be closely monitoring the Brexit and developing situations. It does look likely to be sterling which suffers the most but with the market now appearing to be pricing in worst case scenarios, the potential for a sudden spike upwards, should Theresa May manage to find a way forward, cannot be ruled out.

This is a major week on GBP/EUR exchange rates, the fallout from which may well spread into next week or 2019. The market will eagerly await further news on what to expect with a strong possibility that sterling might at any time move sharply according to a sudden headline or piece of news.

Clients with any GBP/EUR money transfers, to buy or sell might who wish to be kept informed of the latest news and receive updates on this ever-changing market, can please contact me below. I’ll be happy to discuss my GBP/EUR forecast in more detail.

GBP to EUR Falls Lower as Risk of UK General Election Looms ahead of Parliamentary Vote

Brexit votes in House of Commons; the impact on the pound against the euro

Pound to Euro exchange rates have started the week lower ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote to be held tomorrow (11th December) on whether parliament will accept the Brexit deal so far agreed. Rates for GBP to EUR have now fallen to below 1.1150 after weekend reports suggest that the vote will still go ahead as planned despite a growing consensus that Prime Minister will lose this vote.

It is more than likely that Theresa May will be unable to push through her Brexit deal in the Commons and with this carries a number of risks for the pound. If for example she loses the vote by less than 100 then there is every chance she may go back to Brussels and try and renegotiate the terms surrounding the Irish backstop. The worry is that this deal is so unpopular even amongst the Conservative Party that she could lose by as much as 200. A defeat on this scale could see the pound come crashing down as the uncertainty of a general election would likely follow.

If the vote is lost will there be a General Election?

If the Prime Minister lost by such a large number of votes then a motion of no confidence could be passed which could take the country in to General Election territory. The Labour Party has already signalled its readiness to govern in such a scenario and this prospect is a major threat to the price of sterling. The situation the United Kingdom finds itself in is unprecedented and clients should look to plan around this event with major volatility for GBP to EUR expected. If the Prime Minster was able to get the vote through then the pound will likely strengthen. Discussions between the EU and UK have been opened again surrounding the Irish backstop so there could be new developments today.

GBP to EUR rates: French riots could cause issues for the Euro

The Euro faces a volatile period ahead as French President Emanuel Macron struggles to fight to the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) who have rioted again at the weekend despite an offer from the President last week to freeze a fuel tax for months. President Macron is all of a sudden looking less popular having not delivered on his promises of major reform for France. He has also been dubbed a President for the rich after cutting a tax on high incomes immediately after he became President.

This doesn’t bode well for the Eurozone and hence the Euro as political tensions continue to create uncertainty. The French riots for the last four weekends have also been harmful to the economy and this is likely to reflect in a lower growth going forward. It comes at a time when both German and Italian Gross Domestic Product have dropped dramatically.

The European Central Bank will meet this week and should finally conclude the winding down of its asset purchasing scheme despite concerns that the EU economy might not yet be ready. Brexit however will almost certainly be the main driver for EUR to GBP rates.

For up-to-date information on GBP to EUR rates or if you would like to talk about a GBP to EUR exchange please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

Pound to Euro forecast – How will the Brexit vote impact exchange rates?

GBP to CAD forecast: Brexit continues to be the key factor

The Pound to Euro forecast is for volatility next week. Pound to Euro exchange rates have been trading in a relatively tight range during the course of this week as the foreign exchange markets appear to be eagerly anticipating what may happen next week when MPs will vote on the current Brexit plan on offer.

At the moment it appears as though Therea May does not have the support that she needs to approve this current Brexit deal and I think whatever happens next week with the vote will be crucial in determining the future of the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

With such uncertainty surrounding what may happen next week if the vote does not go through, this could cause further losses for the Pound against the Euro and as we saw with the original referendum back in June 2016 with a 10% fall on Pound to Euro rates a precedent of huge movement in a single day has been set.

Rumours are circulating that Theresa May could fall well short and some Tories have proposed that the deadline of the vote should even be delayed.

With the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit increasing this is causing problems for Sterling against a number of different currencies including against the Euro so it may be worth getting things organised prior to the vote next week to avoid any potential pitfalls.

Theresa May has today sent out 30 MPs in order to convince others to vote in support of the current Brexit deal as if things remain the same then this vote could go very badly for the Prime Minister next week.

Pressure off the Euro as French protests end

Turning the focus back towards the continent, the Euro has started to strengthen after the fuel tax problems in France have stopped at least for the time being.

Emmanuel Macron has announced that the rise in fuel tax has been suspended for 6 months and this has helped the Euro to regain some of its recent losses against both the US Dollar and the Pound. In the last fortnight the French leader was coming under immense pressure with riots in Paris and many blockades across France so with things now a lot calmer this has come as welcome news for the Euro.

With such a big vote next week, if you’re in the process of buying Euros and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro Rates after British Legal Position Explained

GBPEUR increases to a 20 month high

Pound to Euro rates has come under further pressure this week ahead of the meaningful vote in Parliament on the 11th of December. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox made a statement in the House of Commons yesterday and made it clear that Britain would not be able to leave the backstop unilaterally. The confirmation in stark black and white only helps to paint a picture that the Brexit deal agreed so far in its current form is unlikely to find enough support in the British Parliament. As such there is more risk to the downside for Pound to Euro rates and there could be further weakness for the pair.

There has been much controversy over whether the Government should publish the full legal advice it has been given with regards the backstop and the wider implications. A vote will be held today in Parliament after a debate on whether the Government must publish the text or not. Rates for GBP EUR are likely to react as there are some suspicions that the text contains further difficulties for Britain if the Irish backstop is used. Aside from that the Government will commence the first day of debates on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The meaningful vote will dictate the next part of how Brexit proceeds and major Pound to Euro volatility is expected at this time.

Brexit can be cancelled

Another twist in the Brexit situation is that the European Court of Justice has ruled this morning that the UK can unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU in effect cancelling Brexit if it was so desired.

Euro rates under pressure

Euro exchange rates have come under pressure as the French fuel protests and riots have dominated the headlines creating some uncertainty for President Macron. Although the French President appears to be offering some compromise the ‘gilets jaunes’ are reported to have significant support in France and this could create more political uncertainty in France which should keep the pressure on Euro rates.

The Italian political stalemate is also creating some uncertainty for Pound to Euro rates. Italy are still insisting on pursuing expanding Government spending in the 2019 budget although there has been a reported climb down after Italy has on occasion signalled that they would be prepared to make changes to the current plan.

For more news on Pound to Euro rates or if you would like to talk about an upcoming currency transfer please send me a message using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

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