Pound to Euro forecast: Will recession concerns weaken the Euro or is Brexit still the main exchange rate driver?

Trade wars and Brexit to dictate pound to US dollar exchange rates

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s news of a slowing European economy, which may start to weight on Euro exchange rates.

Italy has now officially fallen back into recession merely 5 years after the last time this happened back in 2013. During this time we saw real economic concerns for those countries named as the PIIGS of Europe, these were Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

None of these countries are currently performing particularly well either, so we may well see a similar situation to a number of years back, where debt to GDP figures are much higher, this is similar to an individual having a large debt on a credit card but their monthly wages not being enough to cover paying it off. This will essentially will escalate to a larger problem eventually.

There are also reports that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has fallen into a technical recession and this would be seen as even bigger news and may start to weigh heavily on Euro exchange rates.

Brexit still holding back the Pound?

Many of my clients are now confused as to what the best thing to do is, with poor economic figures coming out of Europe you would usually expect the Euro to Pound rate to have weakened fairly significantly, however we do have Brexit hanging over the head of the Pound and this is holding back Sterling exchange rates from really making any progress against any major currency.

Unfortunately for those that are looking to purchase a property overseas and waiting on the best time to push the button on their foreign exchange, until this is sorted out it is unlikely that the Pound will make any huge progress.

I cannot advise clients as to what to do with their money but I can give you my own personal opinion as to what I would do should I be in your position. Personally, I would consider hedging my risk a little and booking out half or at least some of the currency I need, as protection in case the Pound weakens during this current bout of Brexit negotiations.

Although a ‘no deal’ Brexit is still seen as fairly unlikely it has not gone away, and should this happen we may see a heavy drop in the value of the Pound, so protection is key.

Of course on the flip side of that we also have the chance that, should Theresa May negotiate a deal that gets accepted and agreed then we could see a boost in the value of the Pound. So it may be prudent to leave a little bit of your requirement open to avoid potential disappointment if this does happen.

A lot in these situations depend on your own attitude to risk, if you are not the type to walk into a casino or bookmakers and place hundreds if not thousands of pounds on bets then you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you are essentially doing this with currency movements, which are arguably harder to predict and much more volatile in their behaviour.

If you are not a risk taker then remove the risk, guarantee how much your property will cost you now in Pounds (or how much you will receive following a property sale).

Should you be in the position to carry out a currency exchange in the weeks ahead and you would like assistance from someone with over a decade of experience in the industry then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be happy to work with you to try and maximise your money.

Feel free to fill in the form below, set a rate alert or request a quote on this website and we will be happy to get in touch for a no obligation and free discussion about your current position.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Crucial Brexit amendments due to be voted upon today

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

Pound vs Euro forecast: Since the start of the year the Pound has made some significant gains against the Euro hitting the highest level to buy Euros with Pounds since mid 2017.

This works out to be the difference of £4,000 on a currency transfer of €100,000, highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening on the foreign exchange markets.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Brexit vote key for the Pound

Brexit news continues to dominate what is happening at the moment and tonight we have potentially a huge event ahead with a number of amendments being proposed and then voted upon.

Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow will be selecting which amendments will be voted upon and then the votes are likely to take place this evening.

The Brexit proposals

The crucial amendments include Yvette Cooper’s proposal that the Government will not be allowed to leave with no deal and that Brexit may be extended by up to 9 months which means the end of this year.

The second proposal is the motion by Graham Brady who wants to seek ‘alternative arrangements’ to the Irish backstop and this could provide support to Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

In the meantime the European Union remains of the opinion that they will not back down on the current plans being offered. In a way it could be argued that these proposals are futile if the EU will not change their minds and re-open negotiations.

With these discussions likely to set the tone for Pound vs Euro exchange rates in the short term, I think this could possibly even help the Pound, especially if Cooper’s amendment is included, as it means that although the future remains uncertain, the finite period of the end of March is extended. This is why I think we could see the Pound challenge fresh highs against the Euro overnight.

If you would like further information about what is happening in the foreign exchange markets and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below for a free quote when buying or selling Euros and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling hits highest level against the Euro since May 2017 – Great time to buy Euros

Will the pound recover against the euro?

Pound Sterling forecast: The Pound last night breached the highest level seen against the Euro since back in May 2017. Giving those looking to buy Euros a fantastic opportunity.

Whether your business has to purchase Euros, you are buying a property abroad or simply need some travel money for a skiing trip then this latest movement has made it a little bit cheaper for you.

There isn’t one substantial reason behind this movement but a build-up of a number of factors that have led to the spike in the market.

Why is the Pound to Euro rate high?

Firstly, we have seen the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit decreasing. It seems that most of Parliament are not happy for the UK to end up going down this path, and it had originally been the ‘no deal’ scenario that had weakened the Pound and led to it remaining low for a number of months now.

Yesterday we also saw weakness for the Euro against most major currencies. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi yesterday held his regular press conference after the ECB interest rate decision.

As expected, there were no changes to interest rates, and indications were that this would be the same now until the end of the year. On top of this, Draghi was also fairly negative in his overview on how the Eurozone economy is performing. It does appear that the Eurozone economy may be facing a bit of a downturn and this would not be good news for Euro exchange rates as a whole, with the markets moving in advance based on speculation this is why the Euro weakened across the board yesterday.

Brexit ‘Plan B’ vote in Parliament next week

Next week on Tuesday 29th we have the next vote in Parliament. This time to see whether or not Theresa May’s ‘Plan B’ has enough support to get the UK a deal with the EU and for things to move along.

It is still unlikely that this will be voted through and what will be interesting is what happens after this, there are many routes that this could take and either way I would expect Sterling to remain volatile over the course of next week.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving buying or selling Euros or Pounds then in this current climate it is imperative you deal with an efficient and proactive currency broker, along with one that will get you the most for your money. I would like to think that we tick all of those boxes. If you would like to contact me personally for a chat about your own personal situation then you are welcome to fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch.

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.15

GBP to CAD forecast: All eyes on tomorrow's key vote on the Brexit deal

1.15 has been a key resistance point for over 18 months and Pound to Euro rate is currently testing 1.15 again. Having had a chat with fellow traders this morning it seems I may be alone with my current view. Many of the guys here believe 1.15 will be breached and Sterling will continue to climb, I am not so convinced.

Is there justification for the Pound’s rise in value?

Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.

Theresa May tried to push through her Brexit deal in December and it was delayed due to a lack of confidence in the deal going through Parliament. Her intention was to go back to Brussels to renegotiate better terms. European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker has stated there will be no changes to the current deal and Mrs May was stonewalled.

If May is now in a weaker position why would Junker now make concessions? It does seem that the majority of parliament are ‘remainers’ so the odds are stacked against May anyway.

The extension seems pointless unless Junker changes his tune or we are preparing for a no deal.

It is a farce. I would be surprised to see the Pound to Euro rate breach 1.16. If I was buying Euros I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I would be wary of being overly optimistic, every time GBP/EUR has moved into the 1.15s in the last 18 months it has quickly retracted.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted directly by using the form below:

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast for the week ahead – Brexit tops the bill once again

Sterling fails to make any inroads against the Euro despite positive UK services data

The Pound has started the trading week off on the back foot against most major currencies, and we have seen a slight drop off against the Euro in Monday morning trading.

The markets are awaiting news on Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan B for Brexit, and the fall out that occcurs following it. It is unlikely that the new plan will have enough changes in it to turn heads in Parliament and with this in mind there are various ways that this scenario could pan out. The release of ‘Plan B’ is due at 15:30pm this afternoon.

With Brexit not having happened before it is hard to put a solid prediction on what happens next, but in my view it is looking increasingly likely that due to hitting a stalemate the Government may have to seek to extend Article 50 and to essentially ‘kick the can down the road’ whilst they attempt to negotiate a better deal or to work out other plans. These may include another referendum or potentially even not going ahead at all. I feel that either of these could lead to big problems within the U.K so they really are in a difficult position currently.

Parliament are due to vote on the new plan on Tuesday 29th January and should this once again not be approved then the clock is well and truly ticking. Chancellor Philip Hammond has been quick to reassure big business leaders that a ‘no deal’ Brexit will not take place, so in my eyes this only really leaves the option of a delay.

A delay to Article 50 will more than likely lead to the Pound gaining value. The reason Sterling exchange rates dropped significantly in 2016 was down to the referendum result and if there is the slightest hint that this may not happen then the Pound may recover some of those losses.

Economic data this week

Tomorrow we have key unemployment data for the U.K at 09:30am. No major changes to the current unemployment rate of 4.1% are expected but should the release be outside of expectations this could move Sterling exchange rates.

A flurry of European economic data is out over the course of Thursday morning, with Manufacturing and Services data out at 10:00am the most notable.

Later in the day we have possibly the most important release for the Euro, with the ECB interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

No changes to interest rates are expected but all eyes will be on head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and any comments he makes on future economic policy. This can be a large market mover for the Euro should any suggestions that big changes are ahead, so if you have the need to exchange Euros or Pounds then you need to ensure you have your eye on the exchange rates over the course of Thursday afternoon.

Pound to Euro exchange rate volatility

Exchange rates move every second throughout the day, so it is extremely important that you time your currency purchase correctly. This can make the difference of hundreds if not thousands of pounds to you. If you would like my assistance then I have over a decade of experience in helping clients move money internationally, mainly for property purchases or sales but we can help people moving money for any reason.

I have had thousands of people get in touch over the last 10 years and most have found they have made a saving, in fact it is extremely rare we cannot better an exchange rate currently on offer, and usually quite significantly too!

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will ensure I get back to you personally for a free, no obligation chat about your requirements and to see if I could be of use to you.

Will Article 50 be extended and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates in the weeks ahead

Brexit news: Is a move below 1.10 for GBP/EUR realistic

We have seen one of the biggest weeks in history for British politics with the Brexit deal situation as well as a vote of no confidence.

The current Brexit deal on offer lost by an enormous majority of 230 votes against the proposition, which was one of the biggest losses in history for a government but the Pound made some very positive gains vs the Euro as it appears as though the Brexit may not be happening as soon as many previously had expected.

With MPs clearly not looking to budge in their decision to reject the Brexit deal and suggestions that the likelihood of a no deal Brexit is now almost non-existent this has helped support the Pound against a number of currencies with GBPEUR exchange rates hitting 1.14 on the Interbank level during Friday’s trading session.

Theresa May will be due to address the House of Commons once again on Monday to offer up a ‘Plan B’ but the chances of much of a change to the current plan on offer seem unlikely.

The next date to take note of will be 29th January when MPs will be voting on the Plan B so this could provide even further movement for Sterling vs the Euro depending on what happens with the next vote.

At the moment Theresa May has not confirmed whether or not she will reject a no deal Brexit as she clearly wants to keep her negotiating power as strong as possible as if she confirms her stance then her options with the European Union will become more limited.

The issue in the next few weeks will be whether or not the European Union is prepared to back down on the previous arrangements as it is very clear that MPs are not ready to approve the Brexit deal.

My personal expectation is that Article 50 will get extended as the time limit at the moment appears to be too short to get things agreed and with most people unwilling to face a no deal Brexit then I think we could see the Pound make further gains in the short term which is good news if you’re looking to send money to Europe.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 so if you’d like to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro forecast: Theresa May under pressure ahead of next week’s Brexit vote

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast: Sterling falls due to UK politics

Sterling has lost further ground against its Euro counterpart this week, with the markets gearing up for next week’s key Brexit vote.

There was another twist to the on-going saga yesterday, as UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered fresh humiliation in the House of Commons. With the PM fighting to push through her Brexit deal in the same venue next week, she took yet another hit as the Government lost a second dramatic Parliamentary showdown in as many days.

Should the PM’s Brexit deal be rejected by MPs next week, as many expect it to be, then her room for manoeuvre and window to turn around the rejection of support has been decreased dramatically.

She now has only three working days to come up with a plan B, a result which caused an outcry and furious scenes inside the House of Commons, a venue which could ultimately seal Theresa May’s fate next Tuesday, should she lose what is becoming the most critical phase of Brexit talks so far.

Pound to Euro forecast: What’s next for GBP/EUR?

The Pound has suffered once again as a result of this uncertainty, dropping to 1.1045 against the Euro at this morning’s low. Looking ahead, if next week’s vote does not go favourably for the PM then I anticipate the Pound to Euro rate to fall further, with the 1.10 resistance level likely to come under serious threat.

However, I do feel that a negative result for the PM has been at least partially factored in to the current value of Pound to Euro rates, so any positive result could see an surge in support for GBP, which I would expect to make a run towards 1.15 at least should she gain the necessary support to push through her Brexit proposal.

Looking at the Eurozone economy and this is also starting to show signs of weakness, which could put pressure on the EUR as we move through the first quarter of 2019.

For more information about my Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to use the form below to ask me a question. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.

GBP/EUR Alert – Will the pound fall dramatically next week?

Pound euro at three month lows after Theresa May announces resignation

The pound could be in for some severely testing times as the latest Parliamentary vote on Brexit approaches next week. Whilst last night the Government was defeated on a Finance Bill which should help prevent a no-deal Brexit, the pound could still be in for some volatile sessions ahead.

No-deal Brexit deemed too disruptive to UK economy

The British Government is planning for a no-deal Brexit but many in Parliament have said they will do everything in their power to stop a no-deal, for fear it will be too disruptive for the UK economy.

There is an expectation the deal will not get through in the vote on Tuesday. This could see sterling much lower as the market is forced to decide on what the likely outcomes are in the future. These include a General Election and also a second EU Referendum.

Assuming the vote does not get passed, it is difficult to see how the pound will not have a good day. In December, the postponing of the vote saw the pound losing ground as investors lost faith in the UK and the currency. The only way I can see sterling having a good day, is if the Bill is passed which seems highly unlikely.

Increased political uncertainty is negative for the Euro

The Euro is under pressure too and if it wasn’t for sterling being in such a quagmire, the pound would probably be doing much better against the single currency. Expectations for the Euro are still rather mixed, increased political uncertainty in the Eurozone may see the currency softer as investors await further news on economic news.

Yesterday, the German economy was in the spotlight highlighting the fears of either a German recession, or worse a Eurozone recession. German Manufacturing activity showed a decline which could be something of concern for the future. However, despite concerns in the Eurozone, the Euro continues to defy expectations and find buoyancy against the pound.

I expect the pound could be in for a few excessively volatile trading sessions in the coming weeks. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro might wish to take stock of the major movements we might expect.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my GBP/EUR forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

EU summit tomorrow to influence GBPEUR exchange rates

In this pound to Euro forecast we look ahead at the events that could influence GBP/EUR rates in January. What can we expect in January and will GBP/EUR rates drop further?

January is looking to be a crucial month for Brexit which is the main driver of the pound to Euro rate. The pound has been weaker in recent weeks as investors lack of understanding of the Brexit is reflected in the price of the pound. The Euro has been finding some favour too, further exacerbating the trend on the pair.

The key date for January will be the week commencing 14th January where we have the next scheduled Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This might still be postponed and there are conflicting reports over just what we might expect from this episode.

Ultimately, we might still be looking at a no-deal scenario which would see the pound weaken, many forecasters had previously placed GBP/EUR at closer to parity should we see this turn of events.

What might be more likely is that we see either a General Election or a second EU Referendum as the number of options available diminishes and we are left with these outcomes. I believe either of these outcomes would see the pound much lower as investors are forced to consider the potentially negative elements.

There is now a growing sense that the pound will only struggle further in the coming weeks as even if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is passed, there will then be a whole new set of questions over just how Brexit will pass.

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will the Euro perform?

The Euro is stronger entering 2019 as investors find comfort from the resolution over the Italian budget standoff and also warm to the idea of the ECB, European Central Bank, making further progress with their economic plans.

For clients with a GBP/EUR currency exchange in 2019, now could be a very good time to review your position. The expectation is for increased uncertainty over Brexit but any signs the political or economic situations in the Eurozone are not going to plan, would weigh on the Euro.

I expect to encounter a range of 1.07-1.15 in the month, taking account of the possibility of all eventualities.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my pound to Euro forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Rate Falls During Overnight Flash Crash

Pound to euro rate falls prior to the European elections

The pound to euro rate has fallen lower as we have moved into 2019 with rates for the GBP to EUR pair having fallen to below 1.1050. A mini flash crash was seen in overnight trading with a sudden but short lived fall in the pound which has been attributed to low liquidity conditions at this time of year and at this time of night when many of the exchange markets were shut whilst Japan is enjoying a four day holiday. The crash also appears to stem from a poor set of forecasts for Apple Inc’s revenue which saw substantial losses in its share value, which in turn is having a knock on effect on the currency markets with GBP to EUR trading lower.

Pound to Euro rate: Concerns as 2019 begins

2019 starts the year with a number of major concerns over Brexit as well as the continued uncertainty over the US trade wars. There are real concerns for the Chinese economy and this impacts on the global economy too. With the prospect of the US applying further trade tariffs on all of China’s exports then there is likely to be more reaction for the pound and euro to any developments here.

Brexit meanwhile is already proving to be the main driver for the pound and this is expected to intensify in these coming weeks after Parliament returns from the Christmas recess on the 7th of January. The Parliamentary vote that was to be held before Christmas is now scheduled to be voted on before 21st January, with the 14th January a likely date.

Debating of the Brexit deal that has been agreed between the UK and EU will commence on the 9th of January. It has already been reported that one of the former Brexit secretary’s David Davis, has said that there is not enough support for the deal at this point in time and is urging that the vote be delayed again. The continued uncertainty over whether or not there will be a Brexit deal is keeping the pound on the back foot and there is every chance the pound may fall further in the run up to this important Parliamentary vote.

If Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to secure a majority in the House of Commons then the default option on Brexit is to revert to a no deal and this outcome is proving to be a distinct possibility which carries negative risk for the pound to euro rate.

If you would like to learn more about pound to euro exchange rates please do feel free to send me a message using the form below:

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