Pound to Euro Forecast: Will GBP/EUR rates continue to rise?

Pound to Dollar: Pound Slides as Brexit Talks Flounder Over Fishing

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at why the GBP/EUR rate has been in the ascendancy over the last couple of weeks. Investors seem to have become more confident over the future outlook on Brexit. Expectations for Brexit are continuing to be shaped by political developments in the UK and abroad. The pound is likely to remain under pressure despite having risen quite dramatically lately.

More MPs expected to defect from Labour

A key factor for us to consider overnight has been the news that an increasing number of Labour MPs are looking to defect if Corbyn will not support a second Referendum in the weeks ahead. This could see increasing support for the Independence Group which is in favour of a second Referendum on Brexit.

Pound to Euro Forecast: Pound could lose value due to uncertainty

The pound might lose value in the ensuing uncertainty, as investors await a potentially increasingly uncertain situation. The expectation for results on a second Brexit vote are unclear, it is highly possible Leave would win once again. According to a You Gov poll, quoted in the Economist, over 90% of Leave votes (in a survey of 90,000 participants), would still vote Leave.

The margin of losses for Remain last time were so fractional as to make it very worrying over which direction to expect a second Brexit vote would take. The Pound to Euro rate is buoyant on the chances of a no-deal Brexit having reduced, fresh weakness on the Euro as Trump talks up European trade tariffs has aided the move on GBP/EUR.

Overall, I expect the Pound to Euro rate will continue to remain choppy in March and there is still a very large chance it will dip back to retest the 1.10 levels. The 7th March and 21st March are key dates with the former the ECB, European Central Bank decision, and the latter, the Bank of England meeting.

Pound to Euro rates are far from out of the woods and both buyers and sellers will have plenty to discuss in the weeks ahead as we await final news on Brexit.

Next week is the meaningful vote from Parliament, this could see lots of volatility on the pairing, the vote looks likely to be defeated which will open up lots of possibilities on Brexit and also GBP/EUR rates.

If you would like to discuss anything you have read in my latest Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

Pound to Euro forecast: GBP to EUR Finds Support over 1.15

A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast we look at the recent GBP to EUR strength amidst a week full of meetings between British and EU leaders fine tuning the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Rates for GBP to EUR have risen over 1.15 again in the hope that a new agreement on the legal terms of the Irish backstop can be reached.

British politics is seeing a very interesting time at present and this week has seen a number of defections from both the Labour Party and Conservative Party to an independent group.

This is important as it changes the balance in the House of Commons and could make it harder for the minority Government in power to push through key votes in Parliament. As such a general election does move one step closer if there remains a stalemate in the House of Commons and it is unable to push its business through. Rates for GBP to EUR are likely to see a volatile few weeks ahead at this important Brexit juncture and with all the political uncertainties that go with it.

A meaningful vote on Brexit is expected to take place next Wednesday and should determine where GBP to EUR rates head next. This is the next milestone ahead of the 29th March withdrawal date.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will Euro exchange rates weaken further?

Euro exchange rates don’t have the brightest outlook with Italy in recession and a very gloomy outlook for the German auto sector. This morning sees the release of Purchasing Managers Index numbers for the manufacturing and services sector which should give some projection as to the future health of the Eurozone economy.

EU inflation data tomorrow may also influence EUR to GBP rates and has been a major concern for the EU in recent years. The European Central Bank (ECB) have been battling with weak inflation for a sustained period and today’s ECB minutes from the January meeting may offer some clues as to the central bank’s thinking. The markets had been expecting to see the first interest rate hike towards the end of 2019, but with an economic slowdown both in the EU and globally then this in my view is starting to look distinctly unlikely and could result in Euro weakness.

If you have any questions about my Pound to Euro forecast please feel free to use the form below to contact me directly. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your query.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

GBP EUR Lower After Retail Sales Disappoint

Pound to Euro exchange rates have pushed back over 1.14 ahead of a volatile couple of weeks, with another important vote in British politics approaching. UK Prime Minister Teresa May has written to all MPs within the Conservative Party to try and rally support for her Brexit deal. A meaningful vote will be held in Parliament on the 27th February and if she is unable to find support for the existing Brexit deal then there will be another amendment put forward to be tabled by Yvette Cooper and Sir Oliver Letwin.

This amendment would see an extension of Article 50 which would mean Britain wouldn’t leave the EU on 29th March. This could potentially create more uncertainty for the pound. Whether or not this vote would prove successful remains to be seen, but it is clear that there is a great deal of uncertainty ahead for pound to Euro exchange rates with so many differing outcomes on Brexit.

EU will not re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agreement

For the time being Brexit negotiations continue to try and find an alternative to the controversial Irish backstop. However the EU insists that the withdrawal agreement cannot be re-opened and hence this still leaves the prospect of a no deal Brexit on the table. It will be interesting to see what comes out of these recent negotiations between the UK and EU. Anything positive that would give legal certainty that the backstop would be temporary could help get the deal over the line in Parliament.

Whilst the Prime Minister may lose the meaningful vote it is worth remembering that it has been enshrined in law that if no agreement is reached then the UK will be leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This could see considerable disruption in the short term for the British economy and for pound to Euro exchange rates.

Euro exchange rates impacted by Eurozone issues

The Euro has also been receiving a lot of attention of late with some very big changes happening to the economic picture. With Italy now officially in recession and so soon after its last recession the outlook doesn’t look optimistic, especially with Germany and France also seeing a downward trend in its growth forecasts.

Germany’s large export markets to the UK and China particularly for vehicles could see big problems for the EU’s biggest economy if trade with China slows further and if Brexit is disorderly. For the Euro the outcomes on the trade talks between the US and China and what happens with Brexit will play a major factor in the strength of Euro exchange rates.

Please do feel free to use the form below if you’d like to ask me a question about pound to Euro exchange rates. I’ll be happy to contact you personally.

Pound to Euro Rates Hover below 1.14 Despite UK Government Defeat

Pound Euro Exchange Rate: Risk of Volatility on No Deal Brexit

Pound to Euro rates have climbed today despite taking a significant drop yesterday ahead of the Parliamentary vote in the House of Commons which took place late yesterday.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another defeat in the House of Commons which was lost by 303 votes to 258. Brexit remains the major driver for Pound to Euro rates and these coming weeks ahead of March 29th are likely to create major volatility for the pair. Although the Government lost the vote last night, Downing Street has stated that the defeat would not change the negotiating approach to talks with the EU.

Pound to Euro rates: Big decisions ahead for Brexit talks

With time running out as the deadline draws closer there will need to be some big decisions made at this final juncture. Whatever decisions are made and the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will likely create a major reaction as one path will ultimately need to be decided upon. Put simply a deal agreed should see the pound make some healthy gains and a no deal outcome will likely see the pound drop sharply. In the meantime the markets are trying to second guess the outcome which is seeing the pound trading on a lower footing against the Euro.

If a deal is reached then there are likely to be material gains for Pound to Euro rates. Investment in my view would flood back into the UK and with economic worries in France, Spain, Italy and Germany the Euro is likely to come under renewed pressure.

The outlook for the Euro

Germany may find itself in a technical recession like Italy has already done. This would raise concerns over future growth in the EU bloc. There are a number of political issues at present, not just the unrest in France with Gilets Jaunes demonstrations, but also in Italy and Spain all of which point to an uncertain outlook for the economic health of the EU.

UK Retail Sales data expected today

UK retail sales numbers for January are released this morning and may provide some support for the pound on a bigger number. Early indications suggest that sales were healthy although much of this is due to strong discounting which was seen in January so next month’s data may provide a more realistic snapshot of the health of the high street.

Please do feel free to use the form below if you’d like to ask me a question or discuss Pound to Euro rates. I’ll be happy to contact you personally.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will recession concerns weaken the Euro or is Brexit still the main exchange rate driver?

Trade wars and Brexit to dictate pound to US dollar exchange rates

In today’s Pound to Euro forecast I discuss yesterday’s news of a slowing European economy, which may start to weight on Euro exchange rates.

Italy has now officially fallen back into recession merely 5 years after the last time this happened back in 2013. During this time we saw real economic concerns for those countries named as the PIIGS of Europe, these were Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

None of these countries are currently performing particularly well either, so we may well see a similar situation to a number of years back, where debt to GDP figures are much higher, this is similar to an individual having a large debt on a credit card but their monthly wages not being enough to cover paying it off. This will essentially will escalate to a larger problem eventually.

There are also reports that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, has fallen into a technical recession and this would be seen as even bigger news and may start to weigh heavily on Euro exchange rates.

Brexit still holding back the Pound?

Many of my clients are now confused as to what the best thing to do is, with poor economic figures coming out of Europe you would usually expect the Euro to Pound rate to have weakened fairly significantly, however we do have Brexit hanging over the head of the Pound and this is holding back Sterling exchange rates from really making any progress against any major currency.

Unfortunately for those that are looking to purchase a property overseas and waiting on the best time to push the button on their foreign exchange, until this is sorted out it is unlikely that the Pound will make any huge progress.

I cannot advise clients as to what to do with their money but I can give you my own personal opinion as to what I would do should I be in your position. Personally, I would consider hedging my risk a little and booking out half or at least some of the currency I need, as protection in case the Pound weakens during this current bout of Brexit negotiations.

Although a ‘no deal’ Brexit is still seen as fairly unlikely it has not gone away, and should this happen we may see a heavy drop in the value of the Pound, so protection is key.

Of course on the flip side of that we also have the chance that, should Theresa May negotiate a deal that gets accepted and agreed then we could see a boost in the value of the Pound. So it may be prudent to leave a little bit of your requirement open to avoid potential disappointment if this does happen.

A lot in these situations depend on your own attitude to risk, if you are not the type to walk into a casino or bookmakers and place hundreds if not thousands of pounds on bets then you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you are essentially doing this with currency movements, which are arguably harder to predict and much more volatile in their behaviour.

If you are not a risk taker then remove the risk, guarantee how much your property will cost you now in Pounds (or how much you will receive following a property sale).

Should you be in the position to carry out a currency exchange in the weeks ahead and you would like assistance from someone with over a decade of experience in the industry then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be happy to work with you to try and maximise your money.

Feel free to fill in the form below, set a rate alert or request a quote on this website and we will be happy to get in touch for a no obligation and free discussion about your current position.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Crucial Brexit amendments due to be voted upon today

GBP EUR Lower After Retail Sales Disappoint

Pound vs Euro forecast: Since the start of the year the Pound has made some significant gains against the Euro hitting the highest level to buy Euros with Pounds since mid 2017.

This works out to be the difference of £4,000 on a currency transfer of €100,000, highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening on the foreign exchange markets.

Pound vs Euro forecast: Brexit vote key for the Pound

Brexit news continues to dominate what is happening at the moment and tonight we have potentially a huge event ahead with a number of amendments being proposed and then voted upon.

Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow will be selecting which amendments will be voted upon and then the votes are likely to take place this evening.

The Brexit proposals

The crucial amendments include Yvette Cooper’s proposal that the Government will not be allowed to leave with no deal and that Brexit may be extended by up to 9 months which means the end of this year.

The second proposal is the motion by Graham Brady who wants to seek ‘alternative arrangements’ to the Irish backstop and this could provide support to Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

In the meantime the European Union remains of the opinion that they will not back down on the current plans being offered. In a way it could be argued that these proposals are futile if the EU will not change their minds and re-open negotiations.

With these discussions likely to set the tone for Pound vs Euro exchange rates in the short term, I think this could possibly even help the Pound, especially if Cooper’s amendment is included, as it means that although the future remains uncertain, the finite period of the end of March is extended. This is why I think we could see the Pound challenge fresh highs against the Euro overnight.

If you would like further information about what is happening in the foreign exchange markets and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly using the form below for a free quote when buying or selling Euros and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling hits highest level against the Euro since May 2017 – Great time to buy Euros

GBP EUR Higher After French Economy Shrinks

Pound Sterling forecast: The Pound last night breached the highest level seen against the Euro since back in May 2017. Giving those looking to buy Euros a fantastic opportunity.

Whether your business has to purchase Euros, you are buying a property abroad or simply need some travel money for a skiing trip then this latest movement has made it a little bit cheaper for you.

There isn’t one substantial reason behind this movement but a build-up of a number of factors that have led to the spike in the market.

Why is the Pound to Euro rate high?

Firstly, we have seen the chances of a ‘no deal’ Brexit decreasing. It seems that most of Parliament are not happy for the UK to end up going down this path, and it had originally been the ‘no deal’ scenario that had weakened the Pound and led to it remaining low for a number of months now.

Yesterday we also saw weakness for the Euro against most major currencies. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi yesterday held his regular press conference after the ECB interest rate decision.

As expected, there were no changes to interest rates, and indications were that this would be the same now until the end of the year. On top of this, Draghi was also fairly negative in his overview on how the Eurozone economy is performing. It does appear that the Eurozone economy may be facing a bit of a downturn and this would not be good news for Euro exchange rates as a whole, with the markets moving in advance based on speculation this is why the Euro weakened across the board yesterday.

Brexit ‘Plan B’ vote in Parliament next week

Next week on Tuesday 29th we have the next vote in Parliament. This time to see whether or not Theresa May’s ‘Plan B’ has enough support to get the UK a deal with the EU and for things to move along.

It is still unlikely that this will be voted through and what will be interesting is what happens after this, there are many routes that this could take and either way I would expect Sterling to remain volatile over the course of next week.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving buying or selling Euros or Pounds then in this current climate it is imperative you deal with an efficient and proactive currency broker, along with one that will get you the most for your money. I would like to think that we tick all of those boxes. If you would like to contact me personally for a chat about your own personal situation then you are welcome to fill in the form below and I will be happy to get in touch.

Pound to Euro rate tests 1.15

Will GBP/EUR Rates Rise or Fall Ahead?

1.15 has been a key resistance point for over 18 months and Pound to Euro rate is currently testing 1.15 again. Having had a chat with fellow traders this morning it seems I may be alone with my current view. Many of the guys here believe 1.15 will be breached and Sterling will continue to climb, I am not so convinced.

Is there justification for the Pound’s rise in value?

Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.

Theresa May tried to push through her Brexit deal in December and it was delayed due to a lack of confidence in the deal going through Parliament. Her intention was to go back to Brussels to renegotiate better terms. European Commission President, Jean Claude Junker has stated there will be no changes to the current deal and Mrs May was stonewalled.

If May is now in a weaker position why would Junker now make concessions? It does seem that the majority of parliament are ‘remainers’ so the odds are stacked against May anyway.

The extension seems pointless unless Junker changes his tune or we are preparing for a no deal.

It is a farce. I would be surprised to see the Pound to Euro rate breach 1.16. If I was buying Euros I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I would be wary of being overly optimistic, every time GBP/EUR has moved into the 1.15s in the last 18 months it has quickly retracted.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted directly by using the form below:

Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast for the week ahead – Brexit tops the bill once again

GBP EUR Slumps with Lower GDP Print

The Pound has started the trading week off on the back foot against most major currencies, and we have seen a slight drop off against the Euro in Monday morning trading.

The markets are awaiting news on Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan B for Brexit, and the fall out that occcurs following it. It is unlikely that the new plan will have enough changes in it to turn heads in Parliament and with this in mind there are various ways that this scenario could pan out. The release of ‘Plan B’ is due at 15:30pm this afternoon.

With Brexit not having happened before it is hard to put a solid prediction on what happens next, but in my view it is looking increasingly likely that due to hitting a stalemate the Government may have to seek to extend Article 50 and to essentially ‘kick the can down the road’ whilst they attempt to negotiate a better deal or to work out other plans. These may include another referendum or potentially even not going ahead at all. I feel that either of these could lead to big problems within the U.K so they really are in a difficult position currently.

Parliament are due to vote on the new plan on Tuesday 29th January and should this once again not be approved then the clock is well and truly ticking. Chancellor Philip Hammond has been quick to reassure big business leaders that a ‘no deal’ Brexit will not take place, so in my eyes this only really leaves the option of a delay.

A delay to Article 50 will more than likely lead to the Pound gaining value. The reason Sterling exchange rates dropped significantly in 2016 was down to the referendum result and if there is the slightest hint that this may not happen then the Pound may recover some of those losses.

Economic data this week

Tomorrow we have key unemployment data for the U.K at 09:30am. No major changes to the current unemployment rate of 4.1% are expected but should the release be outside of expectations this could move Sterling exchange rates.

A flurry of European economic data is out over the course of Thursday morning, with Manufacturing and Services data out at 10:00am the most notable.

Later in the day we have possibly the most important release for the Euro, with the ECB interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

No changes to interest rates are expected but all eyes will be on head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and any comments he makes on future economic policy. This can be a large market mover for the Euro should any suggestions that big changes are ahead, so if you have the need to exchange Euros or Pounds then you need to ensure you have your eye on the exchange rates over the course of Thursday afternoon.

Pound to Euro exchange rate volatility

Exchange rates move every second throughout the day, so it is extremely important that you time your currency purchase correctly. This can make the difference of hundreds if not thousands of pounds to you. If you would like my assistance then I have over a decade of experience in helping clients move money internationally, mainly for property purchases or sales but we can help people moving money for any reason.

I have had thousands of people get in touch over the last 10 years and most have found they have made a saving, in fact it is extremely rare we cannot better an exchange rate currently on offer, and usually quite significantly too!

Feel free to fill in the form below and I will ensure I get back to you personally for a free, no obligation chat about your requirements and to see if I could be of use to you.

Will Article 50 be extended and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates in the weeks ahead

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead August 15th

We have seen one of the biggest weeks in history for British politics with the Brexit deal situation as well as a vote of no confidence.

The current Brexit deal on offer lost by an enormous majority of 230 votes against the proposition, which was one of the biggest losses in history for a government but the Pound made some very positive gains vs the Euro as it appears as though the Brexit may not be happening as soon as many previously had expected.

With MPs clearly not looking to budge in their decision to reject the Brexit deal and suggestions that the likelihood of a no deal Brexit is now almost non-existent this has helped support the Pound against a number of currencies with GBPEUR exchange rates hitting 1.14 on the Interbank level during Friday’s trading session.

Theresa May will be due to address the House of Commons once again on Monday to offer up a ‘Plan B’ but the chances of much of a change to the current plan on offer seem unlikely.

The next date to take note of will be 29th January when MPs will be voting on the Plan B so this could provide even further movement for Sterling vs the Euro depending on what happens with the next vote.

At the moment Theresa May has not confirmed whether or not she will reject a no deal Brexit as she clearly wants to keep her negotiating power as strong as possible as if she confirms her stance then her options with the European Union will become more limited.

The issue in the next few weeks will be whether or not the European Union is prepared to back down on the previous arrangements as it is very clear that MPs are not ready to approve the Brexit deal.

My personal expectation is that Article 50 will get extended as the time limit at the moment appears to be too short to get things agreed and with most people unwilling to face a no deal Brexit then I think we could see the Pound make further gains in the short term which is good news if you’re looking to send money to Europe.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 so if you’d like to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

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