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Forecast for the Week

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

Sterling back above 1.17 against the euro – where will rates go next?

Pound Sterling recovered against the euro yesterday afternoon and climbed back above the key 1.17 threshold. This was preceded by a poor reading of retail sales data from the Eurozone which did not support the value of the single currency. Eurozone retail sales are down 0.8% on a monthly basis and 1.1% on a yearly basis vs expectation of 0.9% and 1% respectively. A struggling retail sector could support the premise for an interest rate cut sooner rather than...
GBP AUD Consolidates with UK Employment Due

GBP exchange rates remain strong as interest rates remain at 15-year high

Last week the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold for the 4th consecutive time. Whilst this was expected in the lead up to the decision, we have seen a change in the voting patterns of the 9-voting members. The rate will remain at 5.25% and the vote was a 6-3 split. Interestingly one member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for a cut so could this be the start of a change of approach...
GBP USD Exchange Rate Rises Sharply Following Fed Rate Hike 

Sterling hangs in the balance ahead of Fed and BoE decisions

Sterling exchange rates hang in the balance ahead of today’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and tomorrow’s Bank of England Monetary policy meeting. The pound has been one of the strongest performing currencies of 2024, mostly helped by the prospect of higher for longer interest rates in the UK vs the Eurozone and the US. UK interest rates currently sit at 5.25% and there is an expectation for rates to be cut by 100 basis points by...

Could this week’s economic updates push the Pound higher?

Looking over a 1-month chart for the Pound to Euro exchange rate, the Pound has gradually climbed in a consistent trend against the Euro. There has been little volatility, but the GBP/EUR pair have climbed from 1.1500 up to 1.1725 in the space of 1-month, which is an almost 2% increase. At last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and statement afterwards ECB President Christine Lagarde opted not to push back against expectations of...

GBPEUR hits 1.17 – will the pound continue to rise?

GBPEUR exchange rates rose to 4-month highs during yesterday’s session, hitting 1.17 on the interbank market. Sterling is trading 0.6% off the 52-week high against the euro, making now an opportune time for sterling sellers. Sterling has remained resilient against the dollar, holding above the key threshold of 1.27. Cable (GBPUSD) rates are 0.7% off the 5-month high. Services & Manufacturing data Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys senior executives within the manufacturing and...

Will GBP exchange rates remain strong despite recession fears?

Last week saw the Pound to Euro break above the 1.1650 handle for the first time this year, after remaining rangebound between 1.1600 to 1.1650 since the start of 2024. The GBP/EUR pair have begun the week above 1.1650 even if only just, so the trend for the pair is gently climbing despite there being concerns for the UK economy falling into recession. Retail Sales figures for December were released last week and came out below...
GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16  

When will the Bank of England begin cutting interest rates, and how could this...

The Pound traded within a very tight range last week, as currency markets have begun the year in quite a muted fashion. There was a range of just 115 pips for the GBP to EUR exchange rate, and the EUR to USD exchange rate traded within a range of just 80 pips. The EUR to USD exchange rate is the world’s most traded currency pair so this demonstrates how quiet markets were last week. Throughout much...

Sterling stable ahead of US inflation and UK growth data

Following a positive start to 2024, sterling remains at a stable level against its key counterparts the euro and US dollar. GBPEUR is 1.3% off the 6-month high and 2% higher than the 6-month low. Cable (GBPUSD) rates are 3% lower than the 6-month high but almost 5.5% above the 6-month low. On a 6-monthly basis, now is positive time to be securing euros and dollars from pounds. There is a potential for sterling weakness as we progress into...

Could the Pound fall in value if the UK officially slips into recession?

Despite being a quiet week for economic data releases, on Friday there is arguably one of the most important data releases for the UK economy so far in 2024 as GDP figures for November will be released. In the third quarter of 2023 the UK officially contracted after revised figures showed a slight drop in economic output of -0.1% across the 3-month period of July, August and September. For the UK to into an official recession...

Sterling weakens ahead of UK growth data

Central Bank Speeches Sterling exchange rates are once again on the back foot following comments made by several monetary policy committee members. Earlier this week, chief economist Huw Pill suggested it was reasonable for the market to expect interest rate cuts from the middle of next year. Higher UK interest rates support the value of sterling by making the currency more attractive to overseas investment. A drop in interest rates would lead to a softer pound. However, at a conference in Dublin held by the Central...