pound feels the weight of political uncertainty as the election campaign commences

GBP to USD forecast: pound feels the weight of political uncertainty as the election...

Election uncertainty, weak Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) readings and today’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting combined to leave the pound in the doldrums yesterday afternoon. The GBP vs USD rate dipped to its lowest level in almost a week, settling just below 1.29. Better-than-forecast UK services PMI only gave the pound a brief leg up on Tuesday, before the reality of the situation set in yesterday – that it still represents a seventh consecutive month of declines. US Nonfarm productivity data sees biggest...
Pound to US Dollar forecast Brexit continues to subdue business confidence in the UK

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Brexit continues to subdue business confidence in the UK

Could history be about to repeat itself? The pound certainly seems to think so, after the prospect of another hung Parliament – to match the 2017 election result – caused the GBP/USD interbank rate to slip below 1.29 on Monday, for the first time since the end of October. However, the pair received some much-needed respite from the omnipresent threat of political uncertainty yesterday morning, courtesy of positive data readings: figures from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG showed that UK retail sales ticked...
Pound to US Dollar forecast GBP to USD rate left flat by disappointing data on both sides of the Atlantic

Pound to US Dollar forecast: GBP/USD rate left flat by disappointing data on both...

The pound to US dollar rate was muted yesterday, despite a stream of early opinion polls predicting the Conservatives can achieve a majority, raising hopes that a Brexit deal can be ratified. The pound was shackled by disappointing construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) data, which showed that while output fell at a slower rate last month, both new orders and employment continued to slump. Business optimism within the sector is close to a seven-year low and civil engineering has dropped at its fastest pace...
Pound to Dollar forecast GBP firms as Conservatives lead polls

Pound to Dollar forecast: GBP firms as Conservatives lead polls

The snap general election on 12 December was given the go-ahead last week after it received the necessary backing from MPs and the House of Lords, before being given Royal Assent. Parliament will officially be dissolved shortly after midnight on Wednesday and suspended from the start of the following day, triggering the campaign period before the polling date. While the following five-weeks will have a huge influence over the performance of the pound, we’re not likely to see many political developments next week outside...
GBP to USD rate rises after US Federal Reserve slashes interest rates

GBP to USD rate rises after US Federal Reserve slashes interest rates

Pound ends October on a high There’s no denying the pound has had a torrid time since the EU referendum back in June 2016. The resulting political and economic uncertainty has forced it to cling onto any scrap of optimism it can. So, October must have felt like the halcyon days before the Brexit vote, after the prospect of a no-deal was taken off the table before an early election was confirmed. In fact, October has proved such a positive period for the pound that...
GBP to USD forecast UK general election gets the green light

GBP to USD forecast: UK general election gets the green light

With yet another Brexit deadline cancelled, we can all concentrate on trick or treating and apple bobbing today. The pound, however, must have thought it was Christmas rather than Halloween this week: confirmation that a no-deal could be avoided was followed by news of a probable December election, raising hopes that the Brexit deadlock can be resolved. As it turned out, the Prime Minister’s political power play had a limited effect on the GBP to USD pair, as the pound prepares to navigate a...
Pound to US Dollar forecast: Pound finds positivity in pre-Christmas poll

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Pound finds positivity in pre-Christmas poll

An early general election looks all but certain after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced that his party was ready to back a pre-Christmas poll. With a no-deal off the table thanks to the EU’s three-month extension of the Brexit deadline, Mr Corbyn stated that he is ready to fight the "most radical campaign ever". News that Labour MPs had made a U-turn and would back the motion for an early election gave the pound a boost, causing the pound sterling to US dollar rate...
ONS figures check pound’s gains from Monday

Pound to US Dollar forecast: Pound takes comfort from Brexit extension

Just when you thought we had enough political portmanteaus to last a lifetime – from Brexit and Brexthrough to Regrexit and Remoaner – along comes another. We can thank Donald Tusk for the latest addition to the list, after EU leaders agreed in principle to extend Brexit until 31 January 2020, which he labelled a "flextension". This flexible extension of Brexit means the UK won’t leave the EU as planned on Thursday, but it could happen before the deadline if a deal’s approved by...
GBP to USD forecast UK awaits Brexit delay decision

GBP to USD forecast: UK awaits Brexit delay decision

The pound to US dollar rate slumped on Thursday, before remaining muted on Friday, as the UK awaits a formal decision from the EU on a Brexit extension this week. While many of the EU27 favour an extension, with the option to leave earlier if a deal is agreed by parliament, the length of the delay could trigger yet more Brexit uncertainty. Unlike German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who favour a three-month extension, Emmanuel Macron argues that a closer November 15...
ONS figures check pound’s gains from Monday

Pound to US dollar Outlook: UK election uncertainty

The pound to US dollar exchange rate stands at 1.2837 today at the time of writing. This is close to its lowest in over one week, or since last Thursday 17th October. One reason why sterling has neared this one-week low versus the so-called greenback is because it’s unclear if the UK will hold a general election in the coming weeks, or how long the EU will extend the Brexit deadline by. Looking to next week, the US Federal Reserve looks set to cut...