Will the Pound fall if the UK enters a recession?
At the time of writing the Pound is trading towards the top end of its 2023 ranges against most major currency pairs.
Last week, the Bank of England opted to hike interest rates by 0.5% which came as a surprise to financial markets, after a hike of 0.25% was expected.
Sterling exchange rates were quite volatile in the aftermath of the decision to raise rates by 0.5%, and GBP/EUR peaked just below 1.1750 which is the highest level the pair have reached so far in 2023,...
UK Inflation Stagnates at 8.7% Will the pound rise on the Bank of England...
Will Sterling be strong after the Bank of England decision?
So, an interesting couple of days ahead of us with the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow, and we have had the latest Inflation data this morning.
The headline inflation reading is 8.7%, with 7.1% as the core reading.
We know how important Inflation data has been in the Bank of England’s assessments on interest rates.
The last reading Inflation dropped to 8.7% versus the 8.4% expected, this caused sterling strength and is arguably one of the...
Sterling hits a 10-month high against the Euro, could the Pound climb even higher?
The financial markets are gearing up for what could be a busy week for exchange rates, particularly the Pound as on Thursday the Bank of England are expected to hike interest rates.
The base rate currently sits at 4.5% after 12 consecutive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE).
The expectation is for another 0.25% hike this Thursday, although analysts believe there is a 25% chance of a 0.5% hike. This would be an unusual move from the BoE in my opinion as they...
Pound hits 10 month high vs Euro and 14 month high vs Dollar
The pound finished the week rallying against the Dollar and the Euro finishing at 1.1723 against the Euro and 1.2808 against the Dollar. In the week the Pound Euro rate reached a 41-week high at 1.1716 and the Pound reached 1.2848 against the Dollar, which was the strongest level since April 2022.
The pound saw gains against the Dollar and the Euro as a there was an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate and a higher increase then expected in wages and job creation in...
This week ahead – Are 2023’s Sterling high’s set to continue?
For the first time in 2023, we saw the Pound breach the 1.16 ceiling against the euro last week. On the 1st of June 2023 we saw a new a 2023 high reached for GBPEUR of 1.1667 with sterling managing to maintain a mid-market level of above 1.16 for the remainder of the week. The Pound saw similar rises against several currencies, most notably the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, respectively climbing to both 2- and 3-year highs.
Analysts have raised their bets on further...
Pound reaches 2023 fresh highs against the Euro
Pound reaches fresh levels against the Euro but will this continue?
The pound reached the highest points of the year against the Euro this week. GBPEUR rates have traded at 1.1592 highs so far today. The pound is benefitting from expectations of higher UK interest rates.
It is worth pointing out sterling has been see-sawing all year (albeit trending higher) over such expectations. Markets can be very fragile and whilst this sentiment appears established, any data could easily change this.
Interest rate expectations are key, and crucial...
Could the focus on the Bank of England this week influence GBP exchange rates?
In recent weeks, the Pound has remained relatively rangebound against the majority of major currency pairs.
The main focus of our daily blogs is the GBP/EUR pairing and since the Pound broke above 1.1400 at the beginning of the month, there has been less than a 1.5 cent range of movement with GBP/EUR consolidating above 1.1400 and struggling to make much progress into the 1.15’s.
Cable (GBP/USD) has seen a bit more volatility than GBP/EUR, with the Pound dropping off slightly after hitting an 11-month high...
Pound Sterling Forecast – Has the Pound Peaked?
Does the latest FX research and data suggest the pound has peaked?
The pound has very recently touched fresh highs on GBPEUR of 1.1546 and GBPUSD of 1.2679. But since those highs this month, we have seen declines down to 1.1475 and 1.2457 respectively.
This begs the question, has the pound peaked?
Well, our research for a number of weeks has exposed potential sterling weakness. We highlighted the historical “Sell in May, go away” trend of sterling being weaker in May here. This strategy, had seen the...
Will the Pound fall if the Bank of England stops hiking interest rates?
Last week, the Pound hit a six-month high against the Euro, and an 11-month high against the US Dollar after further interest rate hikes and bullish commentary from the Bank of England boosted the Pound.
The hike was the 12th consecutive interest rate hike from the Bank of England, which has come after a long period of very low interest rates just a few years ago.
The UK’s inflation issues have been well reported, and whilst inflation is also a global issue the UK appears to...
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision – When should I buy or sell the...
Pound sterling poised for Bank of England meeting tomorrow
Tomorrow is the eagerly awaited Bank of England interest rate decision. Expectations are locked on for a 0.25% hike from the Bank of England.
This will take interest rates in the UK to 4.5% and could lead to volatility for pound sterling. Exchange rates can be heavily influenced by changes in interest rate policy as I have written previously.
GBPEUR has hit fresh highs at 1.15 which is a six-month high. GBPUSD remains near the 13-month highs of...
