GBP/AUD Forecast: Will GBP/AUD rate rise or fall going into 2019?

GBP/AUD Forecast - Will GBP/AUD rate rise or fall going into 2019?

Our latest GBP/AUD forecast looks at the month ahead for the Pound to Australian dollar rate. The Australian dollar weakness that has seen over 5 cents movement in a week from 1.72 to over 1.77 could be a flavour of the kind of volatility that we can now expect in the weeks ahead as we approach some key pieces of news in the currency markets.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Brexit and trade Wars key drivers for GBP/AUD rates

The key factor is of course Brexit which I will discuss later. However, this more recent movement stems from the news on Trade Wars with Australian GDP, Gross Domestic Product and other concerns around US-China trade concerns. Whilst this more immediate movement has been tempered now and GBP/AUD rates are in the 1.76s, the next week or two could see increased volatility.

The end of this week we are expecting the US Non-Farm Payroll data which can influence more global factors driving exchange rates. Clients tracking GBP/AUD rates could see some movement on the pair once this news is released at 13.30 on Friday. US economic data drives the Aussie because of the way news from the United States can influence global attitudes to risk.

The Australian dollar acts as a key barometer of global attitudes to risk and trade. It will rise and fall according to how financial markets are viewing the latest news. US-China trade wars are a major factor on this, as they influence attitudes to risk and sentiment.

The recent cooling in negative sentiment towards the trade wars had seen the Australian dollar rise and the quick turnaround on the rates highlights just how important it is to make plans in advance if considering a large GBP/AUD exchange in such a volatile market.

December 11th a key date for GBP/AUD rates

Tuesday is the key date on this pair next week with the UK’s Parliamentary vote, this will likely trigger a big move on the GBP/AUD pairing according to how it comes across. Most forecasts have sterling losing value from a no vote since this opens up all manner of potentially negative outcomes for the UK and the pound.

These include Mrs May resigning or being forced out, the possibility of a second referendum or even a general election. It does feel like the pound could be the biggest loser next week, although making predictions on such volatile events as the Brexit and Trade Wars is difficult. The politicians involved cannot make up their minds so how can you, the market or I accurately say what will happen?

If you have a position to buy or sell GBP/AUD then please feel free to make further contact to discuss your options and the market. These events will likely set the pace for 2019 so it is well worth being ahead of the curve and making plans now, rather than leaving it all to the last minute and being caught out.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

To discuss the upcoming Brexit vote, and how it’s likely to impact GBP/AUD rates please get in touch using the form below. I’ll be happy to get in touch personally and discuss your requirements.

Pound US Dollar Forecast: Will the Pound fall even further against the US Dollar?

Pound US Dollar Forecast: Will the Pound fall even further against the US Dollar?

In today’s Pound US Dollar forecast I discuss whether the Pound is likely to fall even further against the US Dollar. The US Dollar has remained very strong against the Pound in recent weeks staying below 1.30 as the problems surrounding Brexit appear to be mounting.

Today will be the third day of debating prior to the proposed vote on December 11th which will decide whether or not Parliament will approve the current Brexit deal on offer by Theresa May.

Yesterday, the Government was forced to publish the legal advice it had been given about Brexit which is the first time in history that Parliament has been found in contempt.

This did not go down well with a number of MPs, and at the moment it appears as though Theresa May will be well short of the votes needed to approve this particular deal. If Theresa May loses the vote then it is likely that she will be going to Brussels on 13th December for the next EU summit to try and appeal for further concessions or amendments to the current plan.

However, there is also another chance that Theresa May could even be forced to resign if the vote shows a huge amount less than she needs.

US economic data to help the US Dollar vs the Pound

Turning the focus to what is happening in the US at the moment we could see some further US Dollar strength over the next couple of days as we wait for the release of Initial Jobless Claims data later on today.

The US economy has been showing some very positive signs recently and this provided a lot of support in favour of further interest rate hikes in the US.

Tomorrow afternoon, we could see further Dollar strength against the Pound when the US releases Average Earnings data as well as the Unemployment Rate which is expected to hit 3.7%. This is close to the lowest levels in US history.

The US Federal Reserve are due to next meet on 19th December and the expectation is for a final interest rate hike in 2018. If the jobs data for today and tomorrow comes out strong then I think we could see Pound vs US Dollar rates falling towards the end of the year.

Therefore, if you’re buying US Dollars it may be worth getting this organised in the near future.

If you would like further information about about my Pound US Dollar forecast please feel free to contact me directly using the form below and I will reply to you personally.

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

GBP/EUR exchange rates: Factors to look out for this week

GBP/EUR exchange rates - Factors to look out for this week

There’s likely to be a busy start to December for GBP/EUR exchange rates as next week’s key vote approaches. On Tuesday the 11th December there will be a vote in Parliament regarding UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s Brexit plan and although it’s gaining popularity the markets generally expect her to fail to gain the support she needs.

In the lead up to next Tuesday’s vote there are a number of factors that could influence GBP/EUR exchange rates in the meantime. Starting tomorrow there will be five days of debate, each day’s debating being led by a different Cabinet minister. Despite the European Union suggesting there is no scope for amendments to the text agreed by UK-EU negotiators I think talk of amendments could influence the GBP/EUR rate as the plan is unlikely to be supported, with May not getting the support she needs from her own Party, along with the DUP party who have already said they will vote against the deal. This is key as the DUP is supposed to be propping up May’s Government and the chances of her receiving the required support from the Labour party is slim.

French protests could affect GBP/EUR exchange rates

The five days of debate is likely to be a key driver for GBP/EUR exchange rates this week. From the EUR side specifically I think the troubles and protests in France are a key talking point. The protests, which begun over fuel tax increases have spread and now the protests are also about the increasing living costs in France. France now faces the largest protests since 1968 according to many with French President, Emmanuel Macron becoming increasingly unpopular.

This issue is likely to weigh on the Euro’s value so those of our readers with a Euro currency exchange to make should follow this topic closely.

This week’s economic data

In terms of economic data releases this week there will be PMI figures released at 9.30am for the Construction sector tomorrow and then the Services sector on Wednesday. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will be speaking tomorrow which could also influence GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with me using the form below.

Volatile times ahead on GBP/USD exchange rates, will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

Volatile times ahead on GBP/USD exchange rates - will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

GBP/USD exchange rate: Close to best rates in 2018 selling US dollars for pounds

The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently trading on the interbank rate marginally above the 1.28 level, a not wholly unfamiliar level on the pair for regular monitors of the market in the last few months. 2018 has seen just over 16 cents movement between the high and the low on the pairing with current levels exceptionally close to the 1.2692 bottom seen in August.

There are now a series of very important political events and economic releases ahead which could have a direct influence on the GBP/USD exchange rate. I think it is going to be a very choppy few weeks ahead with some large unexpected swings as the currency markets digest these key pieces of information.

Will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

The answer to this question is that yes, we might very well see the US dollar get stronger against the pound. The pound is currently in the firing line over Brexit uncertainties and the US economy is performing very well.

The US dollar lost significant ground earlier in the year when the GBP/USD exchange rate hit 1.43, this was mainly on the expectation the trade wars with China would prove very damaging for the US economy. The current view is that actually the trade wars are not as bad as everyone first thought, and in any event, the US economy is likely to weather the storm the ‘best’. The US economy (and therefore the US dollar), will come off the least worse from any global slowdown.

The US is also raising interest rates at a fast pace with a further hike expected in December. A higher interest rate generally makes a currency more attractive to hold and therefore increases its value.

GBP/USD Forecast: Will 1.30 be broken again?

Events begin to come very thick and fast with US Inflation data released today and then it is the end of the month where we can see month-end flows of currency creating unexpected opportunities and swings on the currency markets.

The 11th of December is a key date for the diary with the latest Brexit news and the Parliamentary vote in the House of Commons on Mrs May’s Brexit deal. It appears the most likely outcome is a vote against the UK Prime Minister, which could open up all sorts of problems for the Pound and GBP/USD exchange rates.

The end of this week also sees the G20 Summit where the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is supposed to meet with Trump and of course the trade concerns would be discussed. This is potentially a real market mover as the current tariffs of 10% might increase to 25% in January if no progress is made.

If the UK Parliament passes Mrs May’s plans and the market becomes fearful over the negative effects from the trade wars, GBP/USD exchange rates could well breach 1.30 again. However, the sentiment does seem to be more supportive of the US dollar lately so whilst possible I expect GBP/USD rates to spend more of December below 1.30 than above it.

When should I buy pounds with US dollars?

If you have US dollars to sell for sterling, you are very close to the best rates all year. Indeed with the US possibly raising interest rates and Brexit uncertainties continuing, it might get even better for you.

Of course, the currency markets are always unpredictable and whilst we can highlight the times and reasons when we might see volatility, we can never guarantee  the outcomes.

I believe there is real value in making plans in advance to ensure that you are not caught out by any sudden changes or twists in the market. This is more so the case when you have such unpredictable events like Brexit and Donald Trump to try and second guess.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing any possible GBP/USD transfer you might have to consider.

To discuss the factors and events that could affect GBP/USD exchange rates please use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your queries.

Pound vs Euro: Will May’s Brexit Deal get through Parliament?

Pound vs Euro - Will Brexit Deal get through Parliament?

Parliamentary Vote crucial to Pound vs Euro levels

Theresa May saw her deal for Brexit accepted by Brussels this weekend. It took only 38 minutes by each 27 member states. This however did little to move Sterling as the true test for May’s deal will be to get it through Parliament.

There are many MPs who have openly criticised the current Brexit deal which could mean getting the deal through will be no easy task. The vote will take place on 11th December.

If the vote does not go through there is the strong possibility that Theresa May will either be ousted from her position or resign. There has been a call for a vote of no confidence from Jacob Rees-Mogg. There is rumoured to have been as many as 35 letters submitted to the 1922 committee, with 48 required for a leadership challenge to commence.

Brussels have made it clear that the current deal is the best they are willing to offer and any new PM will not be in a position to negotiate a better deal.

If we enter a “no deal” situation there is the strong chance May will have to go, one way or another. Conservatives must be aware that by voting against the deal, there could be a general election on the cards which could lead to the Tories losing power. Odds from bookmakers have it at 50/50 as to whether the deal will go through. I am of the opinion the deal will be voted through in Parliament as the consequences are simply too great.

Pound vs Euro: When to make your exchange

If you are sitting on Euros and looking at risk vs reward I would take advantage of current levels, before Brexit the Pound vs Euro rate sat at 1.42 and the historical average is 1.25.

If I was buying Euros however I would hedge my bets, trading 20-30% of my requirement before the vote and the remainder after the vote.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.

Please feel free to send me a message directly using the form below:

GBP to CAD forecast: Canadian dollar strengthens due to oil prices

GBP to CAD forecast: Canadian dollar strengthens due to oil prices

In today’s GBP to CAD forecast we look at what’s ahead for the currency pair. The Canadian dollar strengthened against most major currencies yesterday as oil prices recovered some of the losses we saw last week. Regular readers will be aware that Canada exports many commodities and oil is arguable the most important. If we continue to see oil prices rise in the upcoming days, I expect to see CAD continue to make gains against most major currencies.

Bank of Canada not expected to raise interest rates

Its not all positive news for the Canadian dollar as markets are not anticipating the central bank to raise interest rates next month even though annual inflation remained above the central bank’s target. All eyes will turn to this Friday’s GDP numbers. If GDP rises it could be the case that markets will rethink the chances of an interest rate hike before the Christmas festivities.

GBP to CAD forecast

In regards to GBP to CAD exchange rates, Brexit continues to be the main talking point. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has 2 weeks to persuade fellow Conservative MPs to back her Brexit proposal. The vote in Parliament is set for the 11th December and is expected to have a major impact on the future of GBP to CAD exchange rates for the upcoming years.

Over the last 4 weeks GBP to CAD exchange rates have fluctuated between 1.6650 and 1.7250, however I expect the support or resistance level for the currency pair to be broken once the Brexit vote is over. If it’s the case the PM finds support from her Party, my prediction is for the GBP to CAD rate to rise towards 1.75 in the short term and 1.85 in the mid term. However, if its the case Theresa May fails to get the backing from her Party, I believe her days will be numbered and one of many alternatives could happen. If this is the case I expect the GBP to CAD rate to fall to 1.60 in the short term and 1.55 in the mid term.

Latest UK Bank stress tests

In other news the UK will release their latest Bank stress tests alongside the Financial Stability report. The reports have the potential to have a major impact on GBP to CAD exchange rates. However with banks being more regulated by the day, I don’t expect the release to spring any surprises. Therefore I expect either sterling weakness or a non event.

To ask me any questions about my GBP to CAD forecast or to learn more about how Brexit could impact exchange rates and feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

Pound to Australian dollar rates: When will GBP/AUD rates rise back over 1.80?

Pound to Australian dollar rates - When will the GBP AUD rate rise back over 1.80

The Australian dollar rate has been struggling to find its feet against its counterparts, but against the pound it has made notable progress owing to Brexit uncertainties. The Australian dollar is volatile owing to US-China trade concerns and acts as a barometer of this topic and global trade in general.

The Australian dollar should remain rather sensitive to the headlines on both Brexit and also trade concerns as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Argentina later this month. The Australian dollar is stronger on the loose expectation that some kind of deal can be reached, but the market is very cautious.

Pound to Australian dollar rate forecast

I think that trade concerns will continue to act as a drag on the Australian dollar but the outlook will ultimately be determined by the outcome of such events. What seems to me likely is Trump will continue to talk a strong game but will be quite quick to back down and seek a compromise. Such a ‘compromise’ should help the Australian dollar to rise.

The pound seems like it will continue to remain on the back foot as Mrs May’s Parliamentary Brexit deal continues to be the subject of speculation. What could be very interesting is the fallout on sterling should MPs reject her plan. With the EU saying they will not renegotiate on the terms, there is a very strong possibility of us having a no-deal Brexit which would lead to sterling weakness.

Pound to Australian dollar rates might reasonably drop below 1.70 in such a scenario, particularly if there is progress on the Trade Wars to support the Aussie dollar. I expect that ultimately a deal will be reached on Brexit and feel GBP/AUD rates back above 1.80 most likely by the end of 2018. However, the chances of severe volatility in the interim period, whilst the market debates this prospect, seems very high.

If you have a position to buy or sell Australian dollars against the pound, there are many important and difficult events coming up to move rates. Trying to accurately predict such movements is very difficult but we aim to guide you through the scenarios and help formulate a plan to minimise risk and maximise opportunity.

Thank you for reading and please do feel free to contact me directly using the form below to learn more about pound to Australian dollar rates:

Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound to Dollar Rates

Pound Dollar Forecast: EU Summit to impact Pound Dollar Rates

Brexit news causes the Pound to weaken against the US Dollar

The US Dollar has once again improved against the Pound dropping almost 3% in a week or the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of US$200,000.

The latest news on Brexit and the issues surrounding the proposed draft Brexit deal has not gone well for the Pound in relation to a number of different currencies including versus the US Dollar.

Prime Minister Theresa May is due in Brussels over the weekend as the UK and the European Union aim to organise a deal prior to this Sunday’s summit of European leaders. Behind the scenes, Downing Street is hopeful that an agreement could be reached prior to the EU Summit on Sunday.

At the moment the draft deal between the UK and the European Union has already been agreed and although some changes are still expected to be be made to the deal, both parties have suggested that the changes will be relatively minor.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has claimed that she will not attend this weekend’s meeting unless the text has been agreed prior to the meeting.

Pound to Dollar Forecast: Will GBP/USD move back towards 1.30?

Fears still remain over a no deal Brexit so if the Summit goes well this weekend we could see the Pound to Dollar rates head back towards 1.30.

With Thanksgiving being celebrated today in the US the markets may be relatively quiet so if you’re in the process of buying or selling US Dollars it may be worth buying if you’re happy with current rates to avoid the potential volatility when US markets reopen again tomorrow.

We end the week with US manufacturing and services data published at 2:45pm tomorrow. Both releases are expected to improve so we could see further strength for the US Dollar prior to the end of the week.

Clearly though it will be this weekend’s EU summit meeting that is likely to have a huge effect on the Pound vs the US Dollar rate so make sure you’re well prepared for a very busy start to Monday morning. For a free quote then contact me directly via the form below or by calling the trading floor on +44 1494 787 478 and asking for Tom Holian.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates on Back Foot ahead of Emergency EU Summit

Pound to Euro Exchange Rates ahead of Emergency EU Summit

Pound to Euro exchange rates have struggled to gain momentum this week after the seven Government resignations which were seen last week created so much political uncertainty in Britain.

Theresa May to meet with Jean Claude Juncker today

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will travel to Brussels today to meet with the President of the EU Commission Jean Claude Juncker to try and bring Brexit negotiations to a close ahead of the EU summit which starts 25th November. Any statements from leaders today and after the summit next week will likely continue to drive the Pound to Euro exchange rates.

Pound to Euro exchange rates still weak

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates are still on a weaker footing with the threat of a confidence vote in the Prime Minister, which so far has failed to materialise. A number of letters of no confidence have been written to the 1922 Backbench Committee although the magic number of 48 to trigger a vote of confidence has not yet been reached. The looming threat is keeping the markets guessing and keeping sterling on shaky ground with Pound to Euro exchange rates sitting in the 1.12’s.

Bank of England Governor supportive of Brexit deal ahead of House of Commons vote

Meanwhile, the current Brexit plan has been supported by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney which may play to the Government’s advantage in trying to win votes to back it in the House of Commons. The most important date in the calendar is the meaningful vote on the Brexit deal which will be held in the middle of December. This will be crunch time for the Prime Minister and will be the biggest test under her premiership. If she cannot command a majority in the House of Commons for this key vote then we are likely to see a leadership challenge which would almost certainly be negative for Pound to Euro exchange rates in the short term.

It is difficult to see how the arithmetic in the House of Commons will work for Theresa May when considering the hostile response that has been seen to this particular deal. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have signalled they will not back the Government as have many other politicians on both sides of the Brexit debate. Of course Theresa May relies on the DUP to vote in line with Government to push through key parts of Government policy. For these reasons the next few weeks are unlikely to generate any major gains for the Pound ahead of this paramount debate and so risks for Pound to Euro exchange rates remain in these final stages of Brexit.

For more information about Pound to Euro exchange rates or if you would like to discuss how to make the most of opportunities and timing a Pound to Euro transfer please feel free to contact me by using the form below and I will respond to your personally:

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