Pound to Dollar forecast: Should I buy US dollars now ?

GBPUSD Exchange Rate Volatility Following Trump’s Press Conference

In recent weeks Pound to Dollar rates, also known as cable exchange rates, have been on the rise. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into US dollars today compared to the middle of December, now generates $12,000 more.

US Dollar weakness

The US dollar has been on the decline due to the US Government shutdown. Donald Trump shutdown part of the Government in a bid to persuade Congress to back the wall that he wants built between the US and Mexico. The shutdown lasted 35 days and was the longest shutdown in US history. For the time being the shutdown is over, however reports are suggesting the shutdown could have cost approximately $11bn.

Pound strength fading

Up until yesterday evening the pound had been strengthening due to the chances of a no deal crash out Brexit diminishing. However, last night this changed. MPs voted in favour of Graham Brady’s amendment which stated Theresa May would go back to Brussels and inform the Europeans that the backstop is not acceptable and therefore the UK need an alternative arrangement.

Now that MPs want Theresa May to renegotiate, this completely opens the door for a crash out no deal as the European leaders in Brussels have made it clear that they will not renegotiate at this stage. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with Jeremy Corbyn today to discuss the ongoing Brexit saga but I don’t expect the talks to be productive and she will head to Brussels later in the week to continue the negotiation.

My personal opinion is that we will be in the same position in two weeks time and Theresa May is running down the clock. Therefore I think it’s now likely that one of three options will materialise.

  1. The UK crash out of the EU and the pound plummets in value
  2. Article 50 is extended and exchange rates remain range-bound in the high 1.20s
  3. MPs cannot come to a decision by the end of March and because there is a majority in the House to block a no deal, MPs are forced to put it back to the people. Short term I expect rates to continue to remain range-bound, and the result will dictate the value of the pound thereafter.

All in all I don’t see GBP/USD exchange rates rising much further in the short term term, therefore US dollar buyers may wish to act sooner rather than later. For more information in regards to Pound to Dollar exchange rates and a more in depth forecast feel free to feel the form in below to outline your requirements.

Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

GBP to CAD Rate: Sterling Gains Against the Canadian Dollar Ahead of Bank of Canada Statement

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:

Will the Pound rise or fall versus the Euro in May?

Pound to Euro Outlook Are GBPEUR exchange rates likely to fall further?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has risen on the back of loose expectations that the UK might be able to strike a deal between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. There is now a feeling that with both parties doing so badly in the local elections, there is added impetus to try and form an agreement to deliver a Brexit of some description.

Will the Euro weaken in May?

The Euro has also suffered of late with the market sceptical of some of the plans by the European Central Bank to restore confidence in the Eurozone. With the European elections scheduled for the 23rd May, there is added pressure and focus over the outlook both politically and economically for the single bloc.

The Euro could now well face increased pressures as investors try to gauge which direction events will take. It is likely more populist parties will find support from the elections with an increase in dissatisfaction of Government noted across the EU.

If there is a belief that an agreement between the Conservatives and Labour can be found, the Pound may well find some strength against a possibly weaker Euro.

Sterling might now appear more fragile however, since there are still some major gaps between the two sides to come to agreement over. The uncertainty is the key piece of news in my opinion which is holding back the Pound, this could see the Pound to Euro exchange rate losing value.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound rise or fall in May?

I predict that the GBP/EUR rate will now remain in a precarious position as the market awaits further news on how the Brexit talks are going and the likelihood of any further progress. Speculation too, around the outcome of the European elections will also I believe keep the pair in a rather volatile state.

GBP/EUR rates have improved for buyers, but could quickly lose value. If you are looking to buy or sell Euros against the Pound, please feel free to contact me to discuss the latest strategy and forecast to help maximise the position. You can send me a message directly using the form below. I will respond personally.

Sterling forecasts – How to play the markets

EU summit to influence the Sterling to Euro rates this weekend

GBPEUR rates has returned back to a volatile trading pattern as the new month has started. This is due to the economic data cycle starting again with a lot of updates on the economic health of the countries around the world. We have already had PMI data sets for the UK’s manufacturing sector and Service sector. These were mixed with manufacturing worse than expected and the service sector exceeding what had been expected. This is one of the reasons why the GBPEUR rates have now moved by over 2 cents between the high and the low this week already.  It shows and highlights how quickly things can change making a dramatic difference to the cost of anything from a holiday to a holiday home. Here we provide a service helping our clients through the currency maze. Informing them of information pending, forecasts, and expectations for the market so they can make an educated decision on when to trade. PLUS with access to award winning exchange rates you can be sure to save money compared to your current provider; both bank or broker. Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business!  Feel free to test our service by getting in contact with STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

So what is expected for the rest of the week.  Well today we have potentially the largest data sets for the month with interest rate decisions being published by the banks on both sides of the channel.  Any change here could be hugely significant changing prices not just for this week but for the months ahead, so if you are readying this and don’t need to look at markets for a few weeks or months it is still worth following these releases. Personally I don’t expect any change in policy at a central level but we could quite happily see commentary from the Europeans this afternoon change market values. Mario Draghi, the head of the bank follows the release with a press conference which is when this could happen. With data missing expectation across the single currency, a large Portuguese bank needing a bail out along with 3 Greek banks in the last 30 days.

If you would like an update when this hits the press please register your interest by emailing hse@currencies.co.uk with a summary of your situation and contact details.

Happy trading!

RBS and Natwest to close foreign currency accounts – Will this affect you? We can help you exchange your currency into Sterling at much better rates than the bank! (Daniel Wright)

Pound Sterling Forecast – USD Movements Could be Crucial

We have heard recently from a number of existing clients that RBS and Natwest are to close all foreign currency accounts in the very near future.

If this is to affect you and you would like to discuss it in further detail then feel free to contact me directly as the company I work for specialise in getting much better rates of exchange than the banks and we can also hold funds in a foreign currency in a client account on your behalf, so if you do not wish to exchange the currency immediately due to where the markets are currently sat then you do not have to straight away.

I can personally keep you fully up to date with market movements and although I cannot directly advise you I can help you with the timing of your exchange to try and maximise your money.

An important day on the markets tomorrow for those looking to carry out any exchanges involving Euros as we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively which could lead to an extremely volatile afternoon for the Euro.

If you feel I can help you with any aspect of currency exchange then do feel feel to contact me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally.

Factors influencing Pound vs Euro exchange rates

Pound to Euro Under Brexit Spotlight

Since the middle of September 2017 GBPEUR exchange rates have fluctuated between 1.11 and 1.1370, however one day in January exchange rates broke through 1.14 which provided fantastic opportunity for clients buying euros. On going Brexit negotiations have driven the price of sterling and any positive news has pushed GBPEUR close to 1.13, where as negative news GBPEUR has dropped to the lower 1.11s.

Next week the EU will hold the EU summit on Thursday and Friday and this event has the potential to have a major influence on exchange rates. The focus will be Brexit and investors will carefully watched to see if the EU allow the UK to start the trade negotiations early April. If this is the case I expect GBPEUR to break through the current resistance levels and GBPEUR will reach the 1.14s. However if the EU confirm the UK haven’t met the demands of the EU this could have a devastating impact on the pound and GBPEUR could fall below 1.10.

For clients that are buying or selling the pound, the question you should be asking yourself is how much risk do you want to take? If I had to put my neck on the line, I would say that the pound will finish next week well as the EU will announce that the UK will start trade negotiations early April.

In other news the Eurozone are set to release their latest inflation numbers tomorrow and the consensus is no change from current levels. With the euro gaining considerable strength against the US dollar over the last 12 months, I find it difficult to see how inflation will rise any further. Therefore I actually expect this to be a non event. Nevertheless if inflation rises, it puts another nail in the coffin for the ECB to cut the QE program and therefore you should expect the euro to strengthen.

In regards to the pound, the UK are set to release a host of data next week. To start the week inflation is set to be released Tuesday morning. Inflation is set to be released at 3%, which was the same figure as last month. Furthermore average earnings will be released. Forecasts are suggesting that throughout the year, average wage growth will start to catch the rising inflation, which is good news for Brits and the amount of cash they have in their pockets.

On Thursday the Bank of England are set to deliver their latest interest rate decision. No change is expected, but commentary from the Bank of England in regards to predictions will drive sterling exchange rates. Last month, a hawkish statement was given which improved the pounds value. I would expect more of the same.

If you are reading this website in order to find out information in regards to buying or selling the pound, I can help you achieve the best possible exchange rates whilst keeping you up to date with regular economic information. Common clients I deal with are business owners, high net individuals and people buying or selling property abroad.

Its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.


Pound Sterling Strength: Sterling Making Impressive Gains Against the Euro

Was the Pound’s Sell-Off “Overdone”?

Pound Sterling forecast: Sterling has continued where it left off last week, with further gains against all the major currencies. The Pound had its strongest week of the year, making impressive gains against the Euro in particular.

GBP/EUR rates reached a two year high

GBP/EUR rates hit a fresh two year high, moving through 1.17, providing those clients holding the Pound with some much needed respite after months of stagnation.

The catalyst for this upturn was largely down to a reduced chance of a no-deal Brexit and a delay to the planned exit date of March 29th. With the current deadline fast approaching, action and not words is certainly required.

I will remain cautiously optimistic at this point, due to the fact this is not the first time we have heard that progress is being made. However, despite the previous false dawn, it does finally seem as though UK Prime Minister is making headway in her talks with the EU regarding a softening of their current stance on the Irish backstop. This is key to persuading MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal, when the next “meaningful” vote takes place on March 12th.

The Euro did find some support above 1.17 but only managed minimal gains and with the current GBP/EUR levels trading just under this threshold, any further progress this week is likely to drive Sterling value back up.

Those selling Euros will be disappointed at last week’s developments but may in time still look back on the current levels as offering fair value, especially when they consider the history on the GBP/EUR pair.

Any major realignment for the single currency is likely to dependent on a no-deal Brexit and with this scenario now looking less likely, I do not anticipate a move back towards the post-referendum highs.

As such, Euro sellers may wish to consider their positions ahead of what could be a period of relative downturn, assuming that Brexit talks do finally yield a positive outcome.

For up-to-date news on what is impacting GBP/EUR rates, or to discuss anything you have read in today’s Pound to Euro forecast, please feel free to complete the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your questions.

Should I Buy or Sell GBP At The Moment?

Pound Sterling Forecast – Could the Pound Fall Lower Still?

The answer as ever rests with which currency you are holding but if you do need to buy or sell currency for transfer abroad or back to the UK then the following is my generic overview of trends I expect to see in the currency market.

GBP – Sterling has rallied notably against Euro rising to a near 4 year high however much of this has been down to turmoil in Europe rather than real sterling strength as can be seen when you cross reference GBP rates with most currencies outside Europe.  With another £50bn of QE added by the Bank of England, and Governor Mervyn King admitting the UK wasn’t even halfway through its own economic problems, I would expect sterling to remain vulnerable as there is still a very outside chance of an interest rate cut in the UK if QE doesn’t work.  If you are holding most non European currencies then current levels to buy GBP are pretty good, however with the recent spike against the Euro (and CHF, PLN, and HUF) then it may be a good time to buy them- sterling has rallied nearly 3% in about 2 weeks so even if
you only need a £5k transfer for spending over the summer it would still save
you £150!

EURWith a number of countries having been bailout out the single currency is still
under fire as no solution on how to tackle the debt problem can yet be reached
between Germany and the rest.  This has created massive Euro weakness and provided a great buying opportunity from both the US Dollar and sterling.  I do not think
the crisis will likely end any time soon and I think the Dollar will likely remain robust as a safe haven but I do fear sterling may be slightly overvalued at present against the single currency until we see the UK economy turning around.

CHF – Given the Swiss National Bank decision to keep a base peg of 1.20 to the Euro it has meant the CHF has lost its safe haven status, and pretty much as the Euro has weakened so has the CHF.  Pretty much for any trade involving Swiss read Euro until the SNB change tack.

USD – Job creation figures in the US have been positive but a lot weaker than expected.  This is likely to be a key election debate between Republicans and Democrats this year and how to tackle the economic slump- this will be key as once again the US national debt will come up for
debate in the run up to November which could weaken the Dollar as politicians
bring the US with brinkmanship to further their own policies.  The other big threat to the Dollar is the possibility of “QE3” stateside and an extension of “Operation Twist”.  However whilst crisis reigns in Europe, investors will need a safe haven which will be the Dollar.  As such expect USD to remain strong against both GBP and EUR.

AUD mining still dominates the Aussie as China still hoovers up huge amounts of its natural
resources.  Wobbles in Chinese growth have seen the Aussie see-saw between 1.50 and just over 1.60 in the last couple of months and despite a fairly recent rate cut Down Under which temporarily weakened the currency I expect to see the Aussie strong against GBP unless the
RBA cut rates much further.

If you do want to transfer funds and want to see how a broker can help then please feel free to e-mail Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk for an overview of where I think your currency may head and a good exchange rate.

Are you aware we can also help you with your currency exchange as well as offering you award winning market information?! (Daniel Wright)

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Not to mention Barclays, Lloyds, Natwest, HSBC, Yorkshire Bank, Clydesdale Bank, RBS, Halifax, Nationwide and pretty much all major banks.

We don’t only pride ourselves on a great exchange rate but also a really high level of service too, which you may find you aren’t getting to a high enough standard at present.

We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from one thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions for both private clients and corporate clients… We have a regular payments facility too which is free and can assist anyone with smaller payments to Europe.

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If you feel we could be of assistance to you as well, feel free to get in contact with me directly by emailing me djw@currencies.co.uk or you can indeed take two minutes to register for free to get a no obligation comparison in advance of your next transaction by clicking here

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Sterling exchange rates so far in 2013 – The Pound has lost value will this continue or are we due a market correction?

GBP Holds Firm as UK Delivers 2020 Budget After Emergency Rate Cut

Pound performance since the start of the year:

GBP-USD -5.96%

GBP-EUR -6.12%

GBP-AUD -5.02%

GBP-NZD -6.68%

GBP-CAD -3.56%

GBP-CHF -4.33%

GBP-ZAR -1.11%

GBP-JPY 1.24%

Right so for those of you in the position where you need to sell Sterling and buy a foreign currency 2013 has not been a great year. The Pound has lost value against every major currency other than the Japanese Yen… The worst performing currency so far this year.

The Pound has recently hit a 16 month low against a basket of major currencies and even the BBC has recently reported that bets in the city on Sterling to weaken further are the highest they have been since last June, so what can we expect in the coming weeks and months?

It appears that the Bank of England and Government are more than happy to have a low Pound at present, this i’m assuming they are hoping will lead to a rise in the output of exports of goods and services which gives us an outside chance of avoiding the ‘triple dip’ recession’.

This, in my opinion may mean that we could see the Pound stay reasonably low in the near term, therefore if you are due to carry out a transaction involving buying foreign currency then for peace of mind if anything a forward contract may be a prudent approach.

A forward contract is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance needing just 10% of your funds available. If you are in the process of buying a property abroad then you never actually know how much the property will cost you until you have booked out your rate of exchange…. If you were buying in the U.K would you exchange contracts without actually knowing the final cost? That is exactly what you are doing by taking a gamble on the markets. and it is a lot of money to risk if things do go the wrong way for you.

We also have tools available like a limit order or stop loss contract, this is where you can decide on an exact level you would like  to buy at, and if the market hits it even  for a matter of seconds your currency is bought out automatically for you, on the flip side if your budget means you cannot get any worse than a particular exchange rate you can place a stop loss order, meaning if at any point the market drops to that level your currency is automatically bought for you.

Neither of these options cost money to place and they can be cancelled or amended at any time providing the order has not been filled, this is handy for the stop loss as you can chase the market up and keep moving up your bottom level if the market starts to move in your favour.

If you have a pending currency transfer to make and you want a currency expert on your side then please do feel free to contact me directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or contact me on 01494 787 478. I look forward to hearing from you.

We regularly beat not only the banks but every other currency broker, the company we work for is FSA registered and authorised as a payments institute and we pride ourselves on offering not only the best rates of exchange but a fantastic service too.

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