What happens to exchange rates over Christmas (Steve Eakins)

GBP EUR Edges Higher After Recent Rates Sell-Off

Through the festive period many people ask if there will be any effects on the market, either from more holiday cash being needed or whether all the toys being bought from the US and Europe change the prices.  The simply answer to this is No. These do not traditionally change the price of the Pound over the Christmas period.  What we do see happen however though is that the markets become very volatile due to the lack in volume being traded.

In normal trading sessions the volumes being traded affect the price of each currency but as there is less money being moved and transferred in that key time between Christmas and the New Year, smaller volumes move the markets a lot more.  This happened on a very big scale in 2010. Here at Foreign Currency Direct we will be open over the whole festive period with people watching the markets for clients on every non-bank holiday day and we can help.

If you are in the need for a currency transfer and have a target in mind email us and register your interest. Over what can be a very volatile time we can inform you if your target is hit.  Simply email [email protected] with your currency trading pair, volume, target, contact number and time to call. We will do the rest.

Have a great Christmas and New Year.

Thank you,

Pound to Dollar forecast: Should I buy US dollars now ?

Pound to Dollar Rate Choppy Ahead of BoE Meeting

In recent weeks Pound to Dollar rates, also known as cable exchange rates, have been on the rise. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into US dollars today compared to the middle of December, now generates $12,000 more.

US Dollar weakness

The US dollar has been on the decline due to the US Government shutdown. Donald Trump shutdown part of the Government in a bid to persuade Congress to back the wall that he wants built between the US and Mexico. The shutdown lasted 35 days and was the longest shutdown in US history. For the time being the shutdown is over, however reports are suggesting the shutdown could have cost approximately $11bn.

Pound strength fading

Up until yesterday evening the pound had been strengthening due to the chances of a no deal crash out Brexit diminishing. However, last night this changed. MPs voted in favour of Graham Brady’s amendment which stated Theresa May would go back to Brussels and inform the Europeans that the backstop is not acceptable and therefore the UK need an alternative arrangement.

Now that MPs want Theresa May to renegotiate, this completely opens the door for a crash out no deal as the European leaders in Brussels have made it clear that they will not renegotiate at this stage. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with Jeremy Corbyn today to discuss the ongoing Brexit saga but I don’t expect the talks to be productive and she will head to Brussels later in the week to continue the negotiation.

My personal opinion is that we will be in the same position in two weeks time and Theresa May is running down the clock. Therefore I think it’s now likely that one of three options will materialise.

  1. The UK crash out of the EU and the pound plummets in value
  2. Article 50 is extended and exchange rates remain range-bound in the high 1.20s
  3. MPs cannot come to a decision by the end of March and because there is a majority in the House to block a no deal, MPs are forced to put it back to the people. Short term I expect rates to continue to remain range-bound, and the result will dictate the value of the pound thereafter.

All in all I don’t see GBP/USD exchange rates rising much further in the short term term, therefore US dollar buyers may wish to act sooner rather than later. For more information in regards to Pound to Dollar exchange rates and a more in depth forecast feel free to feel the form in below to outline your requirements.


Should I buy Canadian dollars now?

GBP to CAD Rate: Sterling Gains Against the Canadian Dollar Ahead of Bank of Canada Statement

Its been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar vs Sterling so should you buy Canadian dollars now? Yesterday the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% and thereafter provided an extremely dovish statement which was a surprise to the markets.

The Central Bank stated that a sharp fall in oil prices, which will likely to have an impact on economic growth was the main concern, and the trade war between the US and China is still a concern for global growth.

Is now the best time to buy Canadian dollars?

Now that Sterling vs Canadian dollar has risen from the mid 1.60s back above 1.70, the question my clients need to ask themselves is will the Canadian dollar continue to devalue or should they take advantage of the spike in the market and buy Canadian dollars now?

Personally I believe this is a spike that is worth taking advantage of, if clients need to purchase Canadian dollars with Sterling. Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to persuade MPs to back her Brexit plan.

Reports are suggesting that she could lose the vote on the 11th December by over 100 votes and this could cause major problems for the PM. If she loses by that kind of amount I believe her position comes untenable and we would see a resignation or she will be ousted by her own Party.

A real concern for Brits moving to Canada or Brits that buy Canadian exports is the commentary coming from the Bank of England. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has warned, if the UK come crashing out of the EU without a deal, house prices could crash by a third, GDP could fall 8% and exchange rates could fall 25%.

I’m confident that MPs are taking the Bank of England’s advice on board and therefore I do not fear that the UK will crash out of the EU, nevertheless the uncertainty of the deal not going through on the 11th December is a growing concern.

If you hold Sterling at present and are planning a move to Canada short term, you need to ask yourself the question now, are you prepared to take the gamble and wait until after the vote on the 11th? If she fails to get a deal over the line I believe GBP/CAD rates will fall towards the lower 1.60s and remain there for months to come.

For more information about when might be the best time to buy Canadian dollars or to discuss GBP/CAD rates in more detail feel free to drop me a message using the form below:


Will the Pound rise or fall versus the Euro in May?

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review April 9th

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has risen on the back of loose expectations that the UK might be able to strike a deal between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. There is now a feeling that with both parties doing so badly in the local elections, there is added impetus to try and form an agreement to deliver a Brexit of some description.

Will the Euro weaken in May?

The Euro has also suffered of late with the market sceptical of some of the plans by the European Central Bank to restore confidence in the Eurozone. With the European elections scheduled for the 23rd May, there is added pressure and focus over the outlook both politically and economically for the single bloc.

The Euro could now well face increased pressures as investors try to gauge which direction events will take. It is likely more populist parties will find support from the elections with an increase in dissatisfaction of Government noted across the EU.

If there is a belief that an agreement between the Conservatives and Labour can be found, the Pound may well find some strength against a possibly weaker Euro.

Sterling might now appear more fragile however, since there are still some major gaps between the two sides to come to agreement over. The uncertainty is the key piece of news in my opinion which is holding back the Pound, this could see the Pound to Euro exchange rate losing value.

Pound to Euro forecast: Will the Pound rise or fall in May?

I predict that the GBP/EUR rate will now remain in a precarious position as the market awaits further news on how the Brexit talks are going and the likelihood of any further progress. Speculation too, around the outcome of the European elections will also I believe keep the pair in a rather volatile state.

GBP/EUR rates have improved for buyers, but could quickly lose value. If you are looking to buy or sell Euros against the Pound, please feel free to contact me to discuss the latest strategy and forecast to help maximise the position. You can send me a message directly using the form below. I will respond personally.

Are you aware we can also help you with your currency exchange as well as offering you award winning market information?! (Daniel Wright)

Just to make you aware we have now had over 3100 people contact us through the site and so far we have managed to get better rates of exchange and win business from numerous companies, if you are using one of the following it may be worth you getting in touch for a direct comparison:

Moneycorp, HIFX, World First, Smart Currency, UK Forex, Oz Forex, Foremost Currency, Foreign Currency Exchange, Currency Index, Currencies Direct, XE.com, Transferz, NZ Forex, Halo, Afex, Tor FX and Hargreaves Lansdowne.

Not to mention Barclays, Lloyds, Natwest, HSBC, Yorkshire Bank, Clydesdale Bank, RBS, Halifax, Nationwide and pretty much all major banks.

We don’t only pride ourselves on a great exchange rate but also a really high level of service too, which you may find you aren’t getting to a high enough standard at present.

We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from one thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions for both private clients and corporate clients… We have a regular payments facility too which is free and can assist anyone with smaller payments to Europe.

The company we work for is FSA registered and Authorised as a payments institute and all funds are kept in client transaction accounts to give you peace of mind your funds are safe and secure, we have won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service and have now 47,500 clients under our wing.

If you feel we could be of assistance to you as well, feel free to get in contact with me directly by emailing me [email protected]urrencies.co.uk or you can indeed take two minutes to register for free to get a no obligation comparison in advance of your next transaction by clicking here

We look forward to speaking with you!

Factors influencing Pound vs Euro exchange rates

GBP EUR Higher After European Central Bank Rates

Since the middle of September 2017 GBPEUR exchange rates have fluctuated between 1.11 and 1.1370, however one day in January exchange rates broke through 1.14 which provided fantastic opportunity for clients buying euros. On going Brexit negotiations have driven the price of sterling and any positive news has pushed GBPEUR close to 1.13, where as negative news GBPEUR has dropped to the lower 1.11s.

Next week the EU will hold the EU summit on Thursday and Friday and this event has the potential to have a major influence on exchange rates. The focus will be Brexit and investors will carefully watched to see if the EU allow the UK to start the trade negotiations early April. If this is the case I expect GBPEUR to break through the current resistance levels and GBPEUR will reach the 1.14s. However if the EU confirm the UK haven’t met the demands of the EU this could have a devastating impact on the pound and GBPEUR could fall below 1.10.

For clients that are buying or selling the pound, the question you should be asking yourself is how much risk do you want to take? If I had to put my neck on the line, I would say that the pound will finish next week well as the EU will announce that the UK will start trade negotiations early April.

In other news the Eurozone are set to release their latest inflation numbers tomorrow and the consensus is no change from current levels. With the euro gaining considerable strength against the US dollar over the last 12 months, I find it difficult to see how inflation will rise any further. Therefore I actually expect this to be a non event. Nevertheless if inflation rises, it puts another nail in the coffin for the ECB to cut the QE program and therefore you should expect the euro to strengthen.

In regards to the pound, the UK are set to release a host of data next week. To start the week inflation is set to be released Tuesday morning. Inflation is set to be released at 3%, which was the same figure as last month. Furthermore average earnings will be released. Forecasts are suggesting that throughout the year, average wage growth will start to catch the rising inflation, which is good news for Brits and the amount of cash they have in their pockets.

On Thursday the Bank of England are set to deliver their latest interest rate decision. No change is expected, but commentary from the Bank of England in regards to predictions will drive sterling exchange rates. Last month, a hawkish statement was given which improved the pounds value. I would expect more of the same.

If you are reading this website in order to find out information in regards to buying or selling the pound, I can help you achieve the best possible exchange rates whilst keeping you up to date with regular economic information. Common clients I deal with are business owners, high net individuals and people buying or selling property abroad.

Its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company [email protected].

** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING  **

Will UK Inflation help Sterling rise against the Euro and US Dollar this morning? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has made some small gains vs both the Euro and the US Dollar recently but is still being affected by what is happening with the Brexit talks.

The next obstacle will be when the House of Lords looks at the proposal and if they approve it we could see Sterling make some gains vs all major currencies. However, further delay is likely to lead to Sterling weakness.

As yet until we get some certainty and clarity on the situation Sterling will find it difficult to make any significant gains against its major currency pairs even though UK economic data has been relatively strong recently.

Later this morning we eagerly anticipate UK inflation data at 930am. The expectation is for 1.9% so anything higher could see the Pound make some gains as it could influence the Bank of England to look at interest rates again when they meet next month.

Clearly there is little to no appetite to change interest rates in the short term but if inflation continues to rise in the longer term then an interest rate change could come in the next few months.

UK unemployment is due out on Wednesday morning and with levels hitting 4.8% which is the lowest in years it highlights how well the UK economy is performing even when you consider the so called uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote last June.

However, what is clear is that the political landscape in the UK is having the greatest impact on Sterling exchange rates and I think in the short term Sterling will struggle to make significant gains vs the Euro and US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then feel free to contact me directly. Having helped thousands of clients since 2003 save money on their foreign exchange I look forward to  hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

Alternatively call me directly on 01494787478 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

 

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

GBP USD Slips Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on [email protected]. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email [email protected] to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!
Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email [email protected] or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Is the Pound overvalued or undervalued in the current market? (Joseph Wright)

Those planning on making currency exchanges involving the Pound and another major currency have a lot to consider in the current market, with the overall picture for the Pound being particularly mixed.

The headlines over the past week will highlight that the Pound is trading around it’s highest levels against the Euro this side of the new year, but in my opinion these headlines are creating almost a false sense of security regarding the Pounds value and the currency isn’t quite as strong as many may think.

When you compare the Pounds value with the ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Australian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar you’ll see that the Pound is trading around multi-year lows.

The fact that the formal start to the ‘Brexit’ is now most likely less than one month away and all eyes are likely to be on the UK and how it’s economy is performing during this uncertain time, I personally think that there could be further falls to come for the Pound over the next few months and especially if there are breakdowns in trade negotiation talks.

GBP/EUR hitting new 2017 highs can be put down to Euro weakness as the Euro weakened across the board earlier this week. The Euro weakened as a opinion poll in France confirmed that far-right French Presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen is gaining popularity. Le Pen gaining traction could spell trouble for the Euro as she’s outlined plans for France to leave the Euro and start using the French Franc again along with leaving the Eurozone.

Those planning a currency exchange between this particular pair may wish to register their details with us in order to be kept up to date with how this topic unfolds.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on [email protected] in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with Joe on 01494 787 478.

RBS and Natwest to close foreign currency accounts – Will this affect you? We can help you exchange your currency into Sterling at much better rates than the bank! (Daniel Wright)

GBP USD Exchange Rate Climbs Higher but Growth Fears Remain

We have heard recently from a number of existing clients that RBS and Natwest are to close all foreign currency accounts in the very near future.

If this is to affect you and you would like to discuss it in further detail then feel free to contact me directly as the company I work for specialise in getting much better rates of exchange than the banks and we can also hold funds in a foreign currency in a client account on your behalf, so if you do not wish to exchange the currency immediately due to where the markets are currently sat then you do not have to straight away.

I can personally keep you fully up to date with market movements and although I cannot directly advise you I can help you with the timing of your exchange to try and maximise your money.

An important day on the markets tomorrow for those looking to carry out any exchanges involving Euros as we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively which could lead to an extremely volatile afternoon for the Euro.

If you feel I can help you with any aspect of currency exchange then do feel feel to contact me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on [email protected] with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally.

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None of the information contained in this website constitutes, nor should be construed as financial advice. It should not be interpreted as a solicitation to offer to buy or sell any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

Where interbank exchange rates are referenced within the website these should only be used as a guide on the performance of a market. These rates are not indicative of our exchange rates – please contact us for a quote.