Sterling’s Value Continues to Fall (Matthew Vassallo)

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBPUSD Continues Upward Trend but for How Long?

Sterling’s value has fallen this week against almost every major currency and it now looks like we have seen the end of the recent GBP momentum. Only a couple of weeks ago the Pound hit a fresh 8 year high against the EUR, sitting at over 1.42 on the exchange. However, a poor run of economic data, including weak Manufacturing and worse than expected unemployment figures, has halted the Pound’s rise and pushed GBP/EUR rates down by over 6 cents from the recent high.

Whilst I always felt that a realignment was likely, this week’s move has been extremely aggressive and proves how fickle the currency markets can be. It is likely that the recent talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras & German Chancellor Angela Merkel have helped ease pressure on the EUR, with both now agreeing the Greece needs structural reforms if it going to continue as part of the single union.

We also need to remember the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on the matter, as they have become concerned about how the Pound’s rising value would negatively affect UK exports. These fears were confirmed recently with UK factory orders falling to a 2 year low. The central bank have already indicated we will not be seeing a UK interest rate hike any time soon and I now feel it is unlikely that GBP/EUR rates will move back through 1.40 in the short-term.

Looking ahead and UK Retail Sales figures are released tomorrow and are expected to show an improvement. This could help the Pound find some support, although if figures are worse than expected then I anticipate the Pound’s slide to continue.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

UK Unemployment Falls to 7 Year Low! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP Holds Firm as UK Delivers 2020 Budget After Emergency Rate Cut

It’s been a busy morning for the UK with a host of employment data released, along with a public address by Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney. We’ve see some fluctuation on Sterling exchange off the back of these releases, with the Pound gaining position against the EUR, USD & AUD.

All eyes were focused on the UK unemployment figure, which came out better than expected for a second consecutive month. The official figure of 5.3% has moved the unemployment rate to a 7 year low, which is further evidence that the UK economic recovery is still firmly on track. This is particularly encouraging when you consider unemployment levels, along with inflation figures has been one of the primary concerns for the BoE over the past couple of years. It wasn’t all positive news for the UK however, with the average earnings coming out worse than expected at 2.5%. It was interesting to note that GBP/EUR levels did not improve initially following news that unemployment had fallen, probably due to the average earning figures, which initially diluted any positive move for the Pound.

The catalyst for Sterling’s improvement was BoE governor Mark Carney’s public address, where he remained bullish regarding most aspects of the UK economy. He highlighted our Manufacturing sector as a major positive, which has shown continued improvement over the past 12 months.

In reference to David Cameron’s recent statement, which set out guidelines for our future participation in the EU, I thought it was poignant that Carney stated regardless of the decision of 2017’s EU referendum the UK economy would continue to flourish. He went on to say that the ‘UK has enough domestic strength to overcome foreign weakness’, which will help to alleviate investor concerns over the negative impact of the on-going Eurozone debt crisis.

This led to market gains for Sterling, although with a UK interest rate hike now firmly on the backburner, I do expect both the EUR and USD to find support around the current levels.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

High courts give sterling a boost & US Presidential Election (Dayle Littlejohn

With sterling falling month on month due to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, this Thursday’s high court decision has thrown a spanner in the works for UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

The Prime Minister had stated that the UK would trigger Article50 in March, however the High Court has ruled that she (Parliament) does not have the power to invoke Article50 on her own and that all of the MPs in Parliament will have to vote before Article50 is triggered.

Since the decision Theresa May has said that Parliament will be challenging the High court decision in the Supreme Court in December and that she plans to stick to her timescales given last week. For people buying a foreign currency, the pound has gained momentum towards the end of the week however I believe the boost from this story will be short lived as Article50 will be triggered at some point.

This week the major economic event that will impact sterling exchange rates is the Presidential Election in the US. Republican candidate Donald Trump has narrowed the polls and appears to be neck and neck with Democrat Hilary Clinton.  Donald Trump is seen as a risk to the US economy due to wanting to change lots of different policies, trade being one to note.

Speculators will be looking to protect their positions this week, whilst making profit, therefore expect major swings with exchange rates this week.

As I have said above the gains we have seen from the High court ruling could be short lived therefore for people buying a foreign currency taking advantage of the spike maybe wise. However depending on the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the US election could swing rates in your favour this week or exchange rates could fall.

If you are looking for a currency provider who can keep you up to date with exchange rate movement whilst being able to offer excellent exchange rates, feel free to email me Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk with the currency pair you are trading, the reason for your transfer and the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast.

The type of clients I deal with on a day to day basis are high net individuals, property buyers/ sellers and business owners. In addition if you are already using a brokerage feel free to email me and we can compare exchange rates to make sure you are receiving the best rates possible drl@currencies.co.uk.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

Currency Forecast for this week for GBP, EUR & USD Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBPUSD Continues Upward Trend but for How Long?

There is little economic data coming out for the next few days in the run up to Christmas and trading volumes at this time of year are often a lot less which can lead to increased volatility for exchange rates. Indeed, it is estimated that there is 40% less volume for EURUSD during the Christmas period.

Sterling Euro exchange rates have seen a drop of over 5 cents since the first week of December following the news from the ECB that QE would be extended by another 6 months and the deposit rate has been cut to -0.3%.

The reason behind such strength for the Euro was that this was less than expected but also good news in that the ECB has finally done something to combat falling inflation.

The risk to the value of the Euro this week is likely to come from Spain where elections are being held.

The vote did not result in any party forming a majority which means a coalition will need to be formed.

This news has not yet been reflected in exchange rates but depending what happens over the next few days we could see more swings for Sterling vs the Euro.

With the US Federal Reserve having increased interest rates themselves this month we have seen GBPUSD rates drop below 1.50 and we could see further falls for the Pound vs Dollar when US GDP is published tomorrow afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively feel free to call me directly on 01494-787-478 and ask for Tom Holian

Currency forecast and update – Buying EUROS – Selling EUROS – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR update and forecast

Following data this month showing that the economy in the UK is getting better and worse in Europe, GBPEUR exchange rates reached fresh highs not seen since January of this year.  The reason for this climb was a number of surprising data releases on last month performance and an interest rate cut in Europe. We now enter a quieter period of the month as less data is due for the UK and Europe.  In this period the currency markets are normally driven more by Risk Appetite and market sentiment.

I expect to see GBPEUR generally drop over the next fortnight as profit is taken out of the market like other occasions through this year. In fact I would not be surprised to see the Pound drop by over a cent against the Euro before month end. This is turn will help euro sellers and could potentially make a €100,000 EURGBP trade secure over £800 more.

In the short term however we have German Economic Sentiment data out at 10 am today and Bank of England (BOE) Minutes due tomorrow. The German data is expected to strengthen the Euro meaning GBPEUR buyers might be wise to trade before the release and I expect the BOE minutes to be a non-event so to have little impact on the Sterling’s value.

GBPUSD this week

Cable prices (GBPUSD) have been performing well this month and have gained nearly 2 cents adding $2,050 on a £100,000. This week there is host of data for the US; Unemployment Indicators today, Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales figures on Wednesday, then lastly Production Price Index on Thursday. The data releases today and tomorrow are expected to show a fall meaning that many predict the dollar to continue to weaken through the next 48 hours.

Thursday’s Production Price Index data is however expected to show an improvement meaning the dollar could strengthen on the day.  This generally means that USD buyers should potentially either move later today or tomorrow, if you are a seller however acting this morning or waiting until Thursday may be wise.

Here we offer a pro-active service helping our clients make an educated decision on when to trade, keeping them aware with SPIKES NOTIFICATIONS and RATE ALERTS.  If you would like to register for any of these services, would like more information on anything in this report, our current live prices or forecasts of the markets feel free to get in contact with the author – STEVE EAKINS – by calling the number at the top of the page or email him directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Why is the South African Rand so weak?

Over the last year the RAND has lost in excess of 15%, over 9% of which has been seen within the last 3 months when it reached a near all-time low against the Pound.  The reason for this dramatic fall can be attributed to a number of factors but the main reasons include; Gold’s value which is one of their largest exports is expected to finish the year down, the fact that their mining industry has had a number of cuts in their productiveness, and concerns that demand for their raw materials is falling.

Emerging markets including South Africa have also benefited hugely since the 2008 crash as western governments have dropped interest rates which drove investors abroad to seek higher-yielding assets. As the west has started to see consistent improvements this demand has fallen and the amount of foreign investment drop. I personally expect this trend to continue to see GBPZAR to continue its trend as growth continues to improve in the US and the UK.

Saying that however the currency market never moves in a straight line, so there will be opportunities for buyers and sellers if they time their trade. If you would like assistance with your currency transfer and to gain access to award winning exchange rates simply contact with the author – STEVE EAKINS – by calling the number at the top of the page or email him directly at hse@currencies.co.uk.

Currency Fact: The rand is named after an area near Johannesburg called the Rand, which is famous for its gold mines.

Could Sterling increase against the Euro if the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (Tom Holian)

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBPUSD Continues Upward Trend but for How Long?

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trying to hit 1.20 recently and on one occasion following the news of the Italian referendum the Pound broke past the resistance level of 1.20 but the positive movement was rather short lived.

The Pound has been making strong gains vs the single currency since early October when the High Court challenge to Brexit was initially put in place.

With the US Federal Reserve due to meet tonight to discuss interest rates there is a 95% expectation that the central bank will increase interest rates.

The impact this may have on the foreign exchange markets could result in US Dollar strength which typically results in Euro weakness and this could provide clients buying Euros with Sterling the opportunity to possibly see GBPEUR rates break past 1.20 again.

UK inflation yesterday morning came out better than expected at 1.4% which was the highest level since October 2014 and this helped the Pound to make gains vs the Euro.

Tomorrow the Bank of England are due to meet and although there will be no chance of any change in interest rates any positive comments made by Bank of England governor Mark Carney could see Sterling go in an upwards direction.

I predicted last weekend that the Pound would have a strong week and so far my prediction has been accurate and I think the Fed’s decision tonight could see Sterling make gains against the Euro.

If you’re concerned about what is happening between Sterling and the Euro and need to buy or sell property in the Eurozone in the next few weeks or months it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money when buying currency compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information about the contracts available or would like a free quote then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@curencies.co.uk

 

 

U.S GDP figures this week may lead to Sterling spike

The States seems to be the talking point this week with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaking on Tuesday evening about the economy which of course can throw up absolutely anything as we have seen over the past year or so.

Most importantly we see the release of U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures On Thursday at lunchtime if you are in the U.K. THis release can effect a host of major currencies and with the old saying on the markets of when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold a positive release for the U.S may indeed benefit the Pound.

With China seemingly slowing down we have seen the Australian Dollar struggle over the past week or so and it wouldn’t surprise me for the AUD to have a volatile week once again. If you have a transfer involving either buying or selling the Australian Dollar I suggest you inform an experienced broker if you already use one, if you don’t and you have been just buying or selling when you see a good rate then maybe it is time you got some help on your side.

Feel free to email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you have a pending transfer to make and I will be happy to explain the various options available to you to either protect yourself from adverse market movements or to make sure you take advantage of a spike in your favour no matter what time of day or night.

As the week goes personally I feel that confidence is slowly creeping back into the Pound so we could have a fairly poitive week however as you are all aware, anything can happen these days!

What will move pound sterling exchange rates today? (Jonathan)

Pound Sterling Forecast – Could the Pound Fall Lower Still?

The pound has enjoyed a big boost following last week’s better than expected GDP figures. Gaining over 2 cents against the Euro and one cent against the Dollar such unexpected news shows the importance of keeping in close contact with the authors here on pound sterling forecast. Will these gains last and what can we expect today?

Well there is not a huge amount of sterling data out but pound sterling rates will be moved by other factors. The only sterling data this morning was a consumer confidence survey which actually showed a fall in confidence among consumers. And I personally would agree with these sentiments. Even though the economy is now ‘growing’ I don’t think the man in the street would say he was particularly better off than he was earlier this year, if at all.

The first data sets of interest have been German Retail Sales which were down year on year and has given the euro a slight loosening this morning against sterling. At 10.00 we have the Eurozone Unemployment rate which could be a market mover and set the tone on GBPEUR for the rest of the day. There is also a conference call by the ‘Eurogroup’, a team tasked with assisting Greece, but no firm decisions are expected. I think anyone selling Euros would do well to take advantage of this current lull in the debt crisis as surely it is only a matter of time before events spiral out of control.

At 12.30 we have Canadian GDP data which could cause the CAD to dip back below the magic 1.60 mark if it comes in stronger than expected. GBPCAD buyers have been enjoying some of the best rates in four months so if you have a GBPCAD requirement I would take stock and consider this a good buy opportunity.

In the US the after effects of Hurricane Sandy will surely capture headlines although we have not seen a huge amount of movement on rates. Concerns on the dollar are beign shaped around the outcome of the US election and anyone with an interest in any currency pairing should be aware of the potential impact this could have on all currencies. The USD is a ‘safe haven’ currency and moves not just on US news but also global events. The far reaching economic and political implications of a new US President can affect these sentiments and cause unexpected changes on rates.

On the sterling side at 18.00 we have Deputy Governor Bean of the Bank of England give a speech which could be indicative of policy, although over the weekend he did speak playing down the significance of the recent good GDP news, with no major new news since the weekend it is likely therefore his speech will not contain anything unexpected but we should watch for any indications of more QE. All in all not the biggest day for the pound itself, but don’t be surprised to see pound sterling rates move on the back of shifts in sentiment.

For a full break down of all the ins and outs of safely transferring money internationally at unbeatable rates of exchange please feel free to get in touch with me personally on 01494 787 478.

 

Important day for Italy but also for the U.K with some key data releases due.

Again it appears that Italy, Greece and Europe are taking the headlines but we also need to remember that there are still key data releases due for the U.K this morning and this afternoon.

At 09:30am we see Industrial and Manufacturing data, last time around this was particuarly poor so should this be getting any worse then it could start a turn around for the Pound, however a slightly better release may well push us on that little bit higher. Later on today we see the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) release their GDP predictions. The NIESR are a well respected think tank within the U.K and their opinion can drive the markets should it be different than predicted. Expected is for them to echo the last release and come out with 0.5% however from memory I feel seem to note they have revised their predictions down a few times this year… This and indeed poor manufacturing data could come in from the blindside for those waiting on more Euro doom and gloom today and knock the Pound back a peg or two.

If you have an upcoming transaction to make and want to compare your bank or current broker (you don’t buy a TV without shopping around!) Contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and see just how much I can save you along with adding the very highest level of customer service.

Sterling falls against the Dollar owing to positive US inflation data (Tom Holian)

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

The Pound has fallen by over 1% during yesterday’s trading session against the US Dollar as the GBPUSD exchange rate has now dropped to its lowest level since mid-August.

US inflation showed a rise to 1.1% year on year compared to the expectation of 1% and this could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to look at raising interest rates at next week’s meeting.

This year the US economy has continued to show signs of positive growth, strong levels of unemployment and high inflation which are all indicators that an interest rate hike could occur.

With the US elections only a few weeks away it would be difficult for the Fed to change policy at this critical point but to me they are clearly ready to raise interest rates if desired.

This has seen the Pound fall towards 1.30 at the end of the week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPUSD rates fall below 1.3o during next week which could give Dollars sellers a fantastic window of opportunity to buy Sterling.

Indeed, UK inflation has fallen this week and this could lead the Bank of England to look at cutting interest rates when they next meet in November and this is another reason for Sterling’s demise during the course of the week.

Therefore, if you need to buy US Dollars it may be worth organising this early in the week and if selling US Dollars to buy Sterling it may be worth seeing what happens on Wednesday night when the Federal Reserve make their decision.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Having worked in the industry for 13 years I can also make sure the process of transferring currency is stress free.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

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