The Calm after the Storm (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Volatility expected for GBPUSD exchange rates

After “Black Monday” it seems some sanity has returned to the markets. The Global Economy is far too reliant on the Chinese. Growth figures are down considerably for China which is having a huge impact. Particularly on New Zealand and Australia who are heavily dependent on raw material export to the Chinese. We are now seeing new record highs for GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.

Although we are now seeing some stability, I think there is still a massive risk to Global Markets with a slump in Chinese growth, It could well be the tip of the iceberg. I read in some detail of deep issues caused by shadow banking and fraudulent export data coming out of China. Their figures could well be distorted and now we could be starting to see the cost of this distortion. The race to become the world’s largest economy could take its toll on everyone. Question is are they too big to fail?

Each individual currency requirement at the moment requires serious thought and knowledge of the economic climate. This is when an experienced Currency Broker can really help to maximize your trade.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Positive start to the week for the Pound but will it continue? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has started the week on a positive note with Sterling Euro exchange rates as well as Pound to Dollar rates improving since the end of last week.

We are just now two days from Prime Minister Theresa May triggering Article 50 in which she will confirm in writing to the European Union that we will be officially leaving the bloc and casting ourselves adrift.

When you cast your mind back to Brexit and what happened to the value of the Pound we saw it really plummet against all major currencies so a precedent of large movement has already been set last year.

The difference this time round with the issue of Article 50 is that it is simply a matter of time rather than something we did not expect to happen.

Therefore, some people think that the Pound’s value has already been priced in so we may not see as much movement as previously expected.

However, this announcement is unprecedented and there is nothing to compare it with so in my opinion I think we could see one of the most volatile days of the year for the Pound.

There is not a lot of economic data due out prior to Wednesday so I think all the focus will stay on what is happening politically so it is important to make sure that you’re in a position to move quickly should the market take a dramatic turn.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for almost 15 years for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only can I save you money when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

U.K back into recession!!!

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Just when it all looked a little too good to be true as always something came back to completely knock the Pound this morning. Sterling had been at a two and a half year high against a basket of major currencies until 09:30am this morning when we saw Gross Domestic Product figures come out at a much worse than expected -0.2%.

What does this mean?

This is not great news at all for the U.K economy, many economists thought we would see a slightly positive figure and it looked like this was priced into the market so we have seen the Pound drop away against all major currencies in early morning trading, great news for those selling a foreign currency and terrible news for those with the need to buy foreign currency.

The Pound has not taken as much of a hit as one would have expected even following this news so I don’t think it is all doom and gloom and many other economies globally are indeed in deeper waters than the U.K but it will hold back the Pound ever so
slightly in the near term.

If you have an upcoming transaction to carry out feel free to contact me directly and I will be happy to help you get the best rate and a fantastic level of service. djw@currencies.co.uk

Best Time in 8 years to buy Euros with pounds!

Drone attack on Saudi Aramco and how it may impact Dollar exchange rates

With the UK election now out the way and concerns remaining over Greece GBPEUR is at some of the best levels for 8 years presenting an excellent opportunity for anyone buying Euros. Continued uncertainty over Greece may push this higher but with the latest revision of UK GDP due tomorrow, the current excellent levels may not last too long.

This morning’s UK GDP data has seen sterling come under pressure. Last month’s data showed the UK economy was growing at 0.3% which was less than most other leading economies causing GBP to fall. If you have a transaction involving the pound please let me know so I can alert you to any developments. Making some plans to buy soon might be sensible as we could now see sterling fall from these excellent highs, particularly if there is a Greek deal arranged soon.

For more information or to trade please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk 

Sterling Euro awaits UK GDP (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trading in a tight range today as the market takes a breath before the announcement of UK GDP figures due out at 930am tomorrow morning.

Expectations are for a 3% rise and any change could result in GBPEUR volatility. Personally, I think we could see Sterling strength in the morning.

Arguably just as important will be the announcement of German unemployment due on Thursday morning. As the Eurozone’s leading economy any negative result could see Euro weakness.

ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments last Friday saw Sterling gain by as much as 1% against the Euro or an extra £500 on a currency transfer of £50,000.

Draghi suggested that the ECB may intervene in buying up government bonds in order to encourage the banks to buy riskier assets and get consumer spending again. This will likely help the Eurozone but in the short term this could be detrimental to the Euro.

Eurozone growth has stalled recently and with worrying low inflation rates it is only a matter of time before the ECB acts.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling against the majors – current currency outlook for the Pound against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, South African Rand and Swiss Franc

Much of the headline news these days is focused on the European debt crisis, and of course it should be as it is a huge problem that probably will not go away for years to come. It is easy however sometimes to forget that indeed the U.K economy isn’t exactly smelling of roses currently, and there are plenty of economic data releases coming out on a daily basis that are effecting the strength of the Pound in an adverse way.

As well as political stories, the buy/sell demand for currency is traditionally driven by economic releases, ranging from unemployment to manufacturing figures. There are roughly 30 releases for each economy a month with a forecast for the release being priced into the market in advance of this, the economic calender on the right hand side of this page should keep you informed of what is due out next and what expectations are. When the release is made, and if it differs from expectations then you can see the markets shift and readjust accordingly, should there be quite a difference on a larger, more important release then you could see a swift movement either creating a spike in the market for what you are looking to do, or potentially meaning your purchase could cost you a lot more.

The more uncertainty we see in the Eurozone in the coming months, the more the Euro will struggle to make a real fight back from the recent losses seen, so it may be sensible to look at selling Euros now or booking out a forward contract should your house sale overseas be in the process of going through at present. Along with the Euro struggling, the uncertainty should lead to the Dollar gaining more strength as investors still class it as a ‘safer haven’ and run to the Dollar in times of need. They had been using the Swiss Franc primarily but due to the recent devaluing  of the Swiss Franc it isn’t the safe haven of choice an y more. With whispers of further devaluing in the pipeline the CHF may well continue to weaken in the near term until the SNB (Swiss National Bank) confirm they have no further intention to weaken the currency.

For AUD, NZD and ZAR buyers, the uncertainty is also great as it means investors pull out of the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR meaning there is less demand and they are cheaper to buy, Ausralia may well be ever so slightly feeling the pinch lately with a recent rate cut so those waiting for a spike agains the AUD may be in luck.

My personal opinion is in the lead up to Christmas there will no doubt be some great buying and selling opportunites and those quick enough to act and that do not get to greedy could do well in the current market. It is key to have a proactive broker on your side, I can help you with any upcoming transfers both with getting commercial levels of exchange for personal transfers and keeping you fully up to date with market movements, I can also offer forward contracts, stop loss and limit order contracts.

The company I work for is FSA regulated and authorised as a payments institute, we have been trading for over 11 years and have over 40,000 clients so you can have the peace of mind you are dealing with a well respected company in the industry.

Contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk leaving a contact number and a brief explanation of your requirements and I shall personally contact you to discuss exactly how we work and how I can help you in this extremely volatile market.

Sterling recent climb – is this the best level to buy EUROS? – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The value of the Pound has risen dramatically over the last 2 days,  it has been the single biggest and most consistent positive movement we have seen this year. The reason for this gain is following the visit by Barack Obama and his positive stance on the Brexit and the impact it could have on trade.  The leave campaign who are wanting us to leave the EU have been suggesting that we would turn away from the EU and towards the US for trade and commerce.  That has somewhat been destroyed by the President of the United States following his visit. He stated that why would they prioritise a trade agreement with a smaller country rather than dealing with the European block. When he left the UK he flew to Germany to work on that said trade agreement.

This stance has somewhat changed the polls of the potential result to the referendum in less than two months with a stay in vote the favourite result by a distant.  This makes the uncertainty of a leave win less likely and therefore Sterling has started to recover.

As we get closer to the Brexit I can certainly see rates dropping down once more but I think it is rather unlikely as to whether we will see the lows of 1.10 that some have forecasted.

In the nearer future watch out for UK GDP figures which are released tomorrow on Wednesday. This will give the market a better idea of how the impact and uncertainty of the Brexit has impacted the economy and commerce.  The market is expecting a fall which could be reflected in Sterling’s value.

Rates currently sit at the best levels to buy the euro that we have seen for nearly 3 months, buying £200,000 worth of euros now gets you over €5,800 compared to a week ago and €11,250 compared to three weeks ago.

To have a discussion about how to take advantage, forecasts and indeed how the market could impact your situation please get in contact. Email myself STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

FED Interest Rate Decison & GDP Figures Key (Matthew Vassallo)

General Election could weaken Sterling

GBP/USD rates have dropped ahead of a busy day of data releases for the US economy. Cable rates dipped below 1.70 on the exchange yesterday, providing some much needed respite following a sustained period above this level. The USD’s struggles have continued for much of 2014 and it is very rare Cable rates trade above 1.65 for such a sustained period but could we finally be seeing the start of GBP/USD realignment?

Today’s data releases could hold the key, so all eyes will be on the release of the latest US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and FED interest rate decision. With improved economic growth expected, it is possible the USD will build further momentum and any figures above expectation, or an indication that the US will consider a change in interest rates, could help drive GBP/USD back towards 1.68.

A word of caution however, this is not the first time the USD has threatened to realign itself and each time a similar move has occurred, the Pound has fought back almost as quickly. On-going economic difficulties, including high unemployment and relatively weak growth forecasts, are still likely to handicap any Greenback and the on-going positive UK recovery is also likely to support the Pound.

Longer-term I believe there is a lot of scope for the USD to improve against GBP but as yet we have not seen the catalyst required to shift the momentum and change market perception of the pair.

GBP/EUR rates have been fairly flat over the past few trading days, with the EUR finding plenty of support around 1.27. Rates have now been pushed back towards 1.26 and with key Eurozone data released this morning, including inflation and Consumer Confidence figures, we may find the Pound struggles to break through the recent highs. I still believe the current levels offer some excellent buying opportunities and it may be prudent to consider a forward contract around the current rates, for an longer-term EUR purchase.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

Pound to US Dollar forecast Volatility expected for GBPUSD exchange rates

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,

Jonathan

 

 

Sterling gains – Expectation missed facts – GBP down – (Steve Eakins)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

This morning the UK released its first estimates for Quarter 2 of 2013.  The consensus was that we would see a gain up to 0.6% however there seemed to be a growing hope that 0.7% or 0.8% would be seen.  This pushed the rates up higher before the release and provided the high of the month as I forecasted on Monday.  The real figures came out at 0.6% meaning this extra push was lost. The first 2 quarters of growth that the UK has seen since 2011!

So does this mean the UK is fixed?

The simply answer is no, earnings are still falling in comparision to inflation so the UK population and therefore economy is not getting richer, it is simply spending more.  I believe along with many experts that it is the “feel good” feeling that has spread across the UK making the difference. With the recent good weather and sporting wins helping convince people to dip into their savings and give the boost to the economy we have seen in these figures.

So as a result it may be prudent to lock in levels at these highs if you need funds over the next few weeks.  The worries and stories to keep a close eye on if you want to take the gamble are the Bank of England Asset Buying program, also called QE, which we get the next update in a weeks time. PLUS news from China which this week has confirmed 3 quarters of slowing growth, concerns are building a second wind of recessions and concerns could come from the East if this does not change.

I am confident we can provide you both with competitive exchange rates and information to help you make an informed decision as to when to make your transfer. Contact me at hse@currencies.co.uk if you would more information or a live quotation.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

0044(0)1494 725353

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