Sterling Euro breaks 7 year high (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

GBPEUR exchange rates have continued to rise during last week with Sterling touching close to 1.38 against the single currency.

The Greeks have been given 4 months extension to organise their finances and continue their bailout.

It has taken weeks to even get to this point and the markets were waiting a real solution to the problem but it appears as though the Greeks have paid off the minimum balance rather than come to a satisfactory conclusion.

For Euro buyers this is excellent news as the Pound has continued to gain with the uncertainty but those holding Euros we could be at these exchange rates for quite some time to come.

On Monday the UK publishes Mortgage Approvals and with the UK housing market growing quickly for the last 2 years any fall in the data could see a small fall for the Pound vs Euro.

Arguably two of the most important data releases for March are also due out on Monday with Eurozone inflation data as well as unemployment data at 10am.

The expectation is for -0.5% and with falling inflation one of the primary reasons for Euro weakness over the last few months if the data is better we could see the single currency strengthen.

Published at the same time is unemployment data. Expectations are for 11.4%, anything different could see further volatility.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.couk

 

 

 

Sterling Gains against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Euro exchange rates have picked up today in advance of tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes. In recent months 2 of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee have voted for a rate rise but with CPI data out recently showing a fall to 1.2% this has put off a rate hike into the future.

However, if the minutes do show another vote of 7-2 we could see Sterling strength as it goes to show that there is some appetite for a rate hike for the UK at some stage.

It was confirmed this morning that Public Sector Net Borrowing for the UK has increased to £11.8bn in September an increase of £1.6bn compared to twelve months before.

Typically if borrowing is on the rise it is not that good news for the UK but I think the currency market is seeing a rise in investor confidence for Sterling.

UK Retail Sales are due on Thursday at 930am and expectations are for 2.8%. Anything higher could see Sterling rally against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a  free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

Sterling makes a good start to the week ahead of crucial BOE Interest rate decision on Thursday

The Pound has gained against the majority of major currencies today, making headway of 0.8% against the Euro, 0.18% against the U.S Dollar and over 0.70% against both the Australian and New Zealand Dollar close to the end of trading today.

This is all ahead of a crucial interest rate decision due to come out on Thursday at Midday where we will surely see further comments regarding potential Quantitative Easing in the U.K – The mere mention of this may lead to rapid Sterling losses unless obviously they mention they have no further plans to do any of course!

On another note a well known broker has unfortunately gone into administration today, they offered rates higher than the interbank however you had to settle the full amount with them immediately for your currency to be delivered at a later date, we never could work out how they could possibly manage to buy above the market and despite many attempts to find out drew  a blank.

I have come accross clients shopping with this company, even though they are mainly travel money they also did bank to bank as well, and have always said if something seems too good to be true then it generally is, and once again that has sadly been proven as thousands of people will now face a major fight to get their money back.

Should you wish to achieve great exchange rates for any upcoming transaction you need to make be it buying or selling Pounds, Euros, Dollars or any other major currency (i’m afraid we only deal in bank to bank and not cash) please feel free to fill in the contact form on the right hand side of this page and I will get straight in touch.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead – Rate predictions against Euro and Dollar included

Good morning to our regular readers and welcome to any new ones – I hope you had a great weekend!

Today is extremely thin on the ground data wise with nothing due to come out for the U.K, however Sterling is down accross the board losing ground against all major currencies in early morning trading.

This really does suggest that confidence is dropping in the U.K and indeed the Pound leading up to an important interest rate decision out at midday on thursday.

There is an extremely small chance of interest rate movement however it would be a complete shock and in my opinion a really bold move by the Bank of England so don’t hold out for this one.

There is also the possibility of the Bank of England commenting on further Quantitative Easing (QE) I think that there is a much higher chance of this happeneing and any mention or action of this may lead to large Sterling losses – those who had an eye on the strength of the Pound last year will know the mere mention of QE can lead to rapid and large losses for the pound.

Other data of interest due out this week is Industrial and Manufacturing Production due out on Wednesday, this could highlight the chances of a double dip recession if poor.

Trade Balance figures are also due out later in the week coupled with an estimate of upcoming GDP figures by the NIESR (National Institue of Economic and Social Research)

These are both important releases and as always a negative release may lead to Sterling weakness yet a positive release Sterling strength.

Personally I think it may be a testing week ahead for the Pound however anything can happen as you are all aware…

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

“Brexit”. The Key Factor in any Trade involving Sterling (Daniel Johnson)

The EU referendum has caused the Pound to significantly weaken against all major currencies. I think we are starting to see below par UK data releases as a result which will  cause resistance on a Sterling rally. Polls  currently suggest it is almost 50/50 whether the UK will remain in the EU or leave.

I expect GBP/EUR to remain between 1.24-1.29 until after the referendum. If the UK remain in, expect to see 1.35. If we leave however I would expect GBP/EUR to drop to below 1.15. If you have a GBP/EUR trade it may be wise to hedge your bets to limit potential losses. Feel free to get in touch with regards to strategy and contract options.

Key UK Data Releases

Tomorrow at 08.30 will see the release of PPI and CPI data, I expect CPI to cause more movement  on GBP value than PPI. It is a measure of inflation and and can be used as barometer as to the health of an economy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight decline which could weaken the Pound.  Thursday at 08.30 is the release of retail sales and I would expect to see a further decline. If you have to move short term it may be wise to move before these events.

GBP/AUD The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have made their intentions clear, to weaken AUD to encourage growth. We have already seen an interest drop which has bolstered Sterling position. If the UK remain in the EU expect GBP/AUD to move above 2.10. If you are an Aussie seller I would be looking to move before the referendum as I think the current trend will continue and it is too big a gamble to hang on until after the referendum Current trading levels are attractive considering six months ago GBP/AUD was at 2.20 +.  China is the key purchaser of Australian exports  and Chinese Industrial and Retail figures came in over the weekend and were below expectation levels. This will add further ammunition to the belief AUD needs to lose value. Keep an eye on the the RBA minutes on Tuesday to get a further insight on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

If I was a USD seller I would be looking to take advantage of current rates of exchange. GBP/USD currently sits at 1.43. Keep in mind GBP/USD has only fallen below 1.40 three times in the last forty years so 1.43, historically, is a very good time to move.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to help. I specialise in property and commercial trading and I am in a position to beat high street banks exchange rates by as much as 5%. Feel free to contact me for  a no obligation quote on 01494 787478 and ask for Daniel Johnson or e-mail me at dcj@currecnies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

 

Why I think the pound will fall soon… Good news for sterling buyers, bad news for sellers!

Despite the Euro crisis affecting confidence in the UK, sterling is still holding much of the value that saw it hit close to a 3 year high against all currencies only last month. And this morning despite some very alarming Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures, the pound is holding favour. I believe this is all to do with the fact sterling is a more attractive bet than the other majors because it is attempting to deal with its debt problems, however unsuccessful this is proving. It is perhaps a case of being the ‘best of a bad bunch’ rather than a stand alone favourite.

Great news for anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound but will it remain?

Anyone considering a trade involving the pound soon should beware of yet more Quantitative Easing…‘QE typically weakens the currency concerned by increasing the money supply’. This is likely to be unleashed as soon as next Thursday and it is sure to cause the pound to fall in value. Regular Traders may cast their minds back to the Summer of 2010 when GBPEUR was just like today, up above 1.20. At this time we actually saw 1.2350. The situation on GBPEUR was almost identical to now. Confidence in sterling was high (despite the UK economy suffering), and confidence in Europe was low as a result of Greece and the debt crisis. By October the rate had dropped 11 cents to 1.12. I will repeat that statistic because it is very powerful.  By October the rate had dropped 11 cents to 1.12!

This was all due to the fact the economic recovery in the UK was felt to be insufficient to warrant an interest rate hike in 2011 and more QE was likely. The similarities with today’s market is clear and athough QE is not quite the nasty word it once was (It was the first round of QE that helped push the pound down to near parity) I feel that anyone with an interest in the pound should be aware things could quickly deteriorate. There is in my most humble opinion more chance of the pound losing value in the next ten days than gaining value. So let us look at what else is ahead besides next Thursday’s announcement…

DATAWATCH – UK GDP Final Estimate Q1- Thursday 09.30 am. The UK is technically recession but just how bad is it? This release on Thursday could set the pace for movements in the next week on sterling.

Don’t forget that we also have the all important PMI surveys early next week. These Purchasing Managers Index surveys are very important snapshots of the relevant sector in an economy. Please read Mike’s post earlier this year on PMI for more information on PMI http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2012/05/03/sterling-hits-a-33-month-high-against-a-basket-of-currencies-on-a-trade-weighted-basis-but-euro-buyeres-be-wary-of-the-ecb-interest-rate-decision-at-12-45/

Monday 2nd July we have Manufacturing PMI, followed by Construction Tuesday 3rd July and Services 4th July. All of these really have the propensity to move the market and are worth being aware of if looking to buy or sell the pound.

The pound could easily drop a cent or two against most majors because of bad news although last week the increase in Bank of England members voting for QE caused the pound to dip briefly before making a recovery. If the same happens again, anyone selling a currency to buy sterling should be poised ready to act quickly should the pound rebound, or if there is no QE, the pound may rally on the relief factor. We have not really seen Sterling break in either direction on all the majors in the last few weeks so it could well be due some movement. If this is true the next 10 days of data could be really important. If planning any transfers it would be a real shame for you to miss out on these levels, particularly against the Euro. We are trading on GBPEUR at the best rates in over three and a half years!

If you would like more information on anything contained in this post please let me know. I work as a Senior Dealer for the UK’s Largest Independent Currency Brokerage and would be pleased to offer my assistance to anyone who wishes to learn more. And if you would like any updates relating specificly to your personal exchange requirements please feel free to contact me personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk or even call me on + 44 1494 787 478.

I hope you have found this useful and look forward to any enquiries, comments or suggestions.

Jonathan

Autumn statement to impact sterling exchange rates this week (Dayle Littlejohn)

Economic data for the UK that was released towards the end of the week exceeded expectation and consequently the pound has remained strong against all of the major currencies. Unemployment has dropped to an 11 year low and monthly Retail Sales numbers were up 1.5% compared to the previous.

The main talking point this week for sterling exchange rates will be the Autumn statement by Chancellor Philip Hammond. The Chancellor has already stated that the UK economy must be ‘watertight’ as Brexit negotiations in the upcoming months will have a major impact on the pound.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mr Hammond remain positive whilst given his statement and continue to state that the UK need to seize the opportunities of leaving the European Union. However the statement itself could put pressure on the pound and therefore the gains we have seen for the pound since Donald Trump become President of the US could be reversed.

When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as there could be spikes in the market to take advantage of.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Sterling exchange rate forecast and report – What may happen for the Pound against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar and South African Rand? (Daniel Wright)

GBPUSD Slips Away from 9 Month High

Sterling

The Pound has remained fairly flat against the majority of major currencies apart from the South African Rand which it has made fantastic gains against once again this week. The Bank of England minutes this morning did nothing to change the view of investors in either a positive or indeed a negative fashion and there isn’t a huge amount I can see ahead that will lead to huge changes from the point of view of the Pound. The key factors will be what we see released from the pairing major economies and of course there is plenty going on around the globe that could easily kick start some movements back into exchange rates in the near future.

Euro  

There has indeed been a lot going on within the Eurozone most notably the current situation with Greece, apparently we now will have to wait a further six days before yet another round of meetings take place to decide if the Greeks are to receive their next chunk of funds and if so how they are required to manage their debt moving forward. Personally  I think this saga needs to be put to an end and when it is you may see the Euro strengthen a little during the short term… Once again I think this will only be delaying what will be once again a big problem further down the line but historically when the Eurozone get a little bit of firmness on subjects such as this you do tend to see Euro strength and it may be sensible to book some of your required currency before this happens, however if these talks bring no results again there may be a good opportunity to buy Euros shortly afterwards.

Dollar

The Dollar rate has also been fairly flat being stuck between a rock and a fiscal cliff as investors wait to see what the result will be with this current talking point. Personally I feel that again this will be similar to the debt ceiling issue we had a while back and although we will more than likely see and hear a lot about it in the news in the coming weeks I would be very surprised to see America let the matter come to crunch point, and once we have agreements in place the Dollar may find a bit of strength again as confidence and certainty will be installed back in the Dollar. Of course following the election we already have political certainty for the time being so couple that with a result on the fiscal cliff and one would imagine the Dollar may gain back a little ground.

Australian Dollar

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes earlier in the week the RBA have quite simply left the door open for interest rate cuts again in the near future – An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates positive so this could mean we see the Australian Dollar weaken a little in the coming weeks and months however do be aware the Australian economy is still holding its own in the global economic crisis so don’t be expecting huge moves unless something fairly substantial happens.

 

Please feel free to contact me directly if you would like an update on any other currency and I will be more than happy to provide it for you tailored to your specific needs, exchange rates move every two seconds so if you have an exchange to carry out in the coming weeks it is worth letting me know so that I can monitor the market for you. The company I work for has won numerous awards for both our rates of exchange and indeed our customer service so if you find my site interesting and informative then why not contact me for a quote on your upcoming currency transfer. I can be emailed directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Brexit transitional deal likely to continue to drive GBP exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

Brexit no deal worries still holding Sterling back against Euro

It’s been a quiet year for GBP exchange rates considering the price swings last year, especially in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Sterling has managed to slowly recover against many major currency pairs, with the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate up almost 9% this year against the US Dollar. In recent weeks and since the Bank of England decided to raise rates back to 0.5% we’ve seen the Pound trading around the top end of it’s current trends and it’s even trading around a 6-month high against the ever strengthening Euro.

Now that the first round of Brexit negotiations are out of the way, even if only just as the Northern Irish border issues almost scuppered the Brexit bill deal, I’m expecting to see Brexit related information continue to drive Sterling exchange rates.

Those hoping for better rates to convert Sterling into other foreign currencies should be wary of how comments from key figures within the Brexit process can result in swings for GBP exchange rates, and that holding off in the hope of seeing the Pound climb further is a risk. Not long ago GBP/EUR hit an 8-year low with most of the market movement this year being driven by Brexit or Brexit related issues.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding GBP exchange rates do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Be wary of thinking we will see any substantial rise in Sterling short term (Daniel Johnson)

GBPUSD Slips Away from 9 Month High

What lies ahead for Sterling?

Sterling has struggled against the majority major currencies for some time and there has been limited opportunities to buy at a favorable rate. If we look at GBP/EUR for example it has been range bound between 1.12-1.15. 1.15 was only available for a  very small window following the announcement of the Irish border deal. The fragility of the pound was displayed when we saw a sharp fall shortly afterwards when David Davis announced the deal was not legally binding. It is now more important than ever to be in touch with an experienced broker to make sure you can take advantage of spikes in your favour.

I am afraid that short to medium term we could see further Sterling weakness. Brexit negotiations will be key to the pound’s value and Phase two talks are set to take place later in the month. The UK and Brussels are already at loggerheads with David Davis stating he will not allow Brussels to cherry pick and also has slammed EU agencies for advising UK companies to leave Britain or risk having their contracts terminated. Brussels has also begun plans for a no deal situation. Trade talks will be the most important aspect of the Brexit progress and also could be the most difficult. With the two sides seemingly miles apart on a deal it does not bode well for the pound.

We have seen the pound strengthen considerably against the US Dollar today following weak inflation data sate side. This means the chances of three rate hikes by the Fed this year are not so promising. I am skeptical of GBP/USD remaining at current levels however due to the fragility of the pound.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

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