Still a very busy week for Pound Sterling Exchange rates.. Is the Pound going to fall soon? Let us ask the PMI surveys…

Euro to Pound outlook: European Central Bank considers interest rate cut where to next for EURGBP exchange rates?

The pound lost slightly today in early morning trading due to PMI Manufacturing data coming out worse than expected. The figures still pointed to a sector in expansion, but were not a strong as predicted. This release makes tomorrow and Thursday’s PMI data key for anyone buying or selling the pound this week.

These PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) surveys are a snapshot of the relevant sector and provide the most up to date information relating to an economy. They are of course not definitive, but for anyone looking to make a transfer this week or month, they could well set the pace. Don’t forget technically the UK is in recession. The next revision is not until 24th May, but with the currenct estimate at -0.3%, will take quite some upgrading to boost the UK’s current outlook.

Tomorrow at 09.30  we have UK PMI Construction. Construction was the sector that apparently dragged the UK down last quarter and it is expected that this sector like Manufacturing this morning will be slowing down. Tomorrow morning we also have German PMI Manufacturing and German Unemployment. As the biggest Eurozone economy this is well worth being aware of if considering a Euro trade. We are still at close to a 20 month high buying euros with sterling but these data sets could easily change the course for the day.

On Thursday at 09.30 we have UK PMI Services. As with today and tomorrow’s PMI data the Service sector too is expected to be slowing down. As the key concern for the UK is growth, further negative news could really hamper the pound and even cause it to lose value. Thursday afternoon sees the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision which could well stoke some movements on GBPEUR and EURUSD. And talking of the dollar, we have perhaps the biggest release of the week on Friday with US Non – Farm Payroll. This can move the market on all currencies as investors move money according to what they think may happen. If you are making or considering any currency exchanges it really is worth being aware now of what may happen so you do not miss out.  Exchange rates move every few seconds and we can help not only limit your exposure using our wide range of contracts options and making sure you are up to date with the latest movements, but also make sure your trades go through at the very best commercial rates, above that offered by other brokers and banks. Feel free to make a comparison with anyone of the team directly or by using the contact form on the right hand side. We always go that extra mile for clients who contact us via this site!

And I must say Congratulations go to Daniel for some excellent predicitions yesterday! This just goes to show how by listening to us clients can save money. Of course there are no guarantees but because of our inner knowledge of what actually drives exchange rates we can make what can turn out to be pretty accurate predictions.

As well as the above data there are many more releases concerning the USD,  AUD,  NZD and CAD! If you would like any further information I will be happy to personally assist. You can call me direct on 01494 787 478  or if you prefer email via jmw@currencies.co.uk

We look forward to hearing from you

Buying euros, selling euros, best time to buy, best exchange rates (Steve Eakins)

Exchange rates continue to be range bound between 1.165-1.18 this week which may only seem like a small difference, however on a purchase of €200,000 timing the trade well reduces your costs by nearly £2,200.  An amount equal to average monthly earnings in the UK before tax is deducted, bills are paid and the car is filled up.  What I am trying to highlight is how important it is to buy currency effectively and to time your trade!  Here we provide a pro-active service helping clients do just that.  Either using the SPIKE NOTIFICATION or the RATE CATCHER service you could save too. Register for either service by emailing me at hse@currencies.co.uk

What next for exchange rates, which way are they heading?

I am still of the view that rates are more likely to fall rather than climb against the Euro, a contrast to Ben’s blog below.  I think that even though the UK is improving we are still at near zero growth and only a cats whiskers from re-entering a recession. In comparison the Eurozone is growing at a faster rate and even though they are going through a process of economic review, which is raising some concerns, I believe that these concerns will be solved and euro strength will return. Cyprus have now confirmed they are selling some of their own gold reserves adding more confidence that the issues there are subsiding. Portugal and Ireland are currently negotiating an extension of their bailout to make their respective economies more healthy which can only be a good thing for Europe, right?

Tomorrow and over the weekend we also have the G8 meeting that will probably cover European debt concerns. My view is that the European states will probably again use it as a sales opportunity create some strength resulting falls early next week. Buyers may as a result want to move sooner rather than later or at least limit their exposure.

Here we achieve our clients a saving over that of their current providers, whether that be their own bank or another broker.  Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business so we are very confident we will be able to help you if you are in the markets.

Contact us today to see how much you could save, either call the normal number and ask for myself Steve Eakins or contact me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Euro Spike – gains for the pound today

Sterling euro exchange rates are closing in on the 1.16 interbank level today, following comments from ECB Economist Otmar Issing who said that Greece is ‘insolvent’.

This has weakened the euro and seen flow into the British pound.  Couple this with poor GDP figures from the US – further reducing the chance of an already slim interest rate hike in the states.  The pound has benefitted in flow from USD to GBP as well and is up half a percent in trading today.

The pound has made good gains against a number of other currencies as well including the New Zealand Dollar GBPNZD, Canadian Dollar GBPCAD and Mexican Peso GBPMXN.  If you have a currency requirement in these or any other currency pair, contact a specialist dealer by filling in the form on the right.  The currency dealer will be able to explain how you can save money on your transfer and benefit from the very best exchange rates.

UK Interest Rate Decision – Could we see new record lows?

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

Pound Forecast

Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England (BOE) has come under scrutiny following the decision to cut interest rates shortly after the electorates vote to leave the EU. The BOE has been criticised for what some consider to be a knee jerk reaction, personally I think the initial fall out could have been worse and the decision to drop limited damage.

The rate decision at 13.00 today will be keenly watched as there is the possibility of a further cut to a new record low of 0.05%. If this occurs expect the pound to suffer. Some argue that a lower pound will encourage more domestic spending, I would argue that we are too heavily reliant on exports particularly consumables and it won’t be the big boys who will be taking the hit. It will be the consumers and I expect a rapid rise in inflation over the coming months.

I think another rate cut is too soon and there would be a lot of criticism should a cut occur. It is one also one of the last tools in the BOE’s arsenal, where do you go once we hit 0.05%, negative interest rates in the UK? Never.

If you do have a requirement selling the pound it may still be wise to move before the decision. If you look at risk reward. The risk there is a cut? Sterling falls several cents in value. No change? little gains for the Pound. Looking forward I do not think there is much chance of a pound rally against any major currencies unless out side factors come into play. Apart from GBP/USD , if Trump gets in expect the  pound to strengthen. Trump’s wild ideas on curbing trade with China and immigration would write trillions off GDP.

If you would like my assistance with your currency requirements I would be happy to help. I will be prepared to provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs  and also provide a no obligation quote against your current provider, I am rarely beaten. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

Daniel Johnson

Executive Dealer – Foreign Currency Direct

 

 

GBP/EUR Rates Above 1.25 Despite a Drop in Retail Sales (Matthew Vassallo)

Euro to Pound outlook: European Central Bank considers interest rate cut where to next for EURGBP exchange rates?

GBP/EUR rates remain above 1.25 despite a drop in UK Retail Sales, providing EUR buyers with some of the best levels of the past 20 months. Retail Sales figures were released this morning and showed a fall for the first time since January and initially Sterling dropped following the news, only to recover back through 1.25 during afternoon trading. Over the past 12 months we have seen the UK economy start to stabilise, after a long period of stagnation and weak growth forecasts. Whilst this improvement is obvious to see, our recovery process is not yet complete and I anticipate further speed bumps along the way.

Whilst Eurozone productivity continues to remain unbalanced, we will find that UK exports are negatively affected and this of course could hinder our own recovery moving forward. We also need to consider that the Bank of England (BoE) will be wary about the Pound gaining too much strength, for fear of alienating our main trading partners (Eurozone) even further.

GBP/USD rates have remained very flat over the past month but continue to trade close to a four year high. With Cable levels moving back through 1.70 on the exchange this week many investors will be hopeful of further gains. An on-going concern for those holding USD is the fact the Dollar does not look like making any significant inroads against Sterling in the short-term. GBP/USD rates have now been trading above 1.60 throughout 2014 and this scenario seemed unlikely at best considering the relative weakness of the UK economy towards the end of 2013. With slow economic growth inside the US continuing to hamper the USD’s progress, we could see Cable rates remain above 1.67 for the foreseeable future.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk

How long will the Relief Rally last?

Drone attack on Saudi Aramco and how it may impact Dollar exchange rates

I don’t think anyone really expected the US to default! The problems however are from solved, they are merely postponed. We will probably be writing very similar pieces on the debt ceiling come February which is when the next deadline will be hit!

Moved into next year too is the likelihood of Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ of the Quantitative Easing programme. This is helping fuel the stock market gains and a return to riskier assets too helping the AUD and NZD today as well as the Euro.

It is good news the US have averted a potential catastrophe but it is very worrying in 2013 that such concerns are still present, particularly when you consider the global economy is just about back on its knees.

The last thing anyone wants is another crisis of any description. It seems for now all central bankers can do is take steps to avoid further problems. The fact the US is still utilising QE indicates there is a long way to go before the global economic recovery is fully underway.

For now the USD has weakened but if the fragile good mood turns sour, the USD remains a safe haven and could strengthen very quickly.

To learn more about events that will affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478

Pound starts to slide (Dayle Littlejohn)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

If you follow poundsterlingforecast on a regular basis you would have seen my article on Sunday morning and my prediction was that the pound would to start to slide in the run up to Theresa May triggering Article50. If you are not a regular reader ‘triggering Article50’ means starting the process of leaving the European union.

GBPEUR and GBPUSD have both dropped 2 cents within the last 7 days which means a €200,000 purchase is now £2,873 more expensive and a $200,000 £2,645 more expensive. 

This week the House of lords have made an amendment to Theresa May’s Brexit Bill. They want to guarantee the rights for EU citizens once the UK completely exits the EU, in the years to come. The amendment should only be a stumbling block and Theresa May should still be able to stick to her deadline of the end of the March. Therefore I still believe further fall are on the horizon for sterling exchange rates.

An important data release that could impact GBPEUR and GBPUSD exchange rates today is Janet Yellen’s speech this afternoon. Speculation is building that the FED will raise interest rates in April and therefore if Janet Yellen hints to when the FED will act, you could see a further fall for GBPUSD exchange rates however this could cause a potential positive spike for euro buyers.

Many of my clients until we speak do not realise they have many options available to them. For example if you are purchasing a property abroad and you are waiting for your property to sell in the UK, you can use a forward contract which allows you to lock into exchange rates now and you pay later.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would recommend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.

 

Buying or Selling a Property in Europe? (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget
Tom Holian
Tom Holian

This is the time of year when we are inundated with enquiries from individuals looking to buy or sell properties in Europe and have a need to save money when transferring Euros. Using a bank can be both an expensive experience and often a big waste of time loaded with transfer fees and hidden costs. By utilising a specialist currency broker you can be assured of competitive exchange rates and information to help you make a more informed decision as to when to buy or sell your Euros.

An experienced currency broker can explain the benefits of fixing an exchange rate in advance which allows you to take advantage of current rates even if you don’t yet need to make your currency transfer. For a small deposit an exchange rate can be fixed anything up to 12 months in advance.

Buying in France?
When buying a property in France you will often be asked for a payment once contracts have been signed called a compromis de vente and the balance payable typically 3 months later. Therefore, you could see a large difference in exchange rates between the offer and completion and many clients will opt for a forward contract to guarantee a fixed amount in the currency which they are selling. If you are interested in finding out more about how this type of contract works then please contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Buying in Spain?
When sending money to Spain the Spanish banks may sometimes levy hefty fees if funds are coming from a British bank. By using a broker they can often avoid the receiving fees charged by banks in Spain as well as offering you a more competitive exchange rates. The process of buying property is slightly different in Spain dependent on both the buyer’s and also vendor’s requirements. More often than not a small reservation fee is charged with the larger balance payable a few days or few weeks later so again highlighting the benefits of using a forward contract.

If you are interested in finding out more about how this type of contract works then please contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Olympic opening Ceremony sums up that Britain is indeed great – And anyone based in the U.K that saw the amount of people queuing for Euromillions lottery tickets on Friday do you believe we are deep in recession?

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The scene was set and the script was written for the London Olympic opening ceremony to be a shocker… Surely something would go drastically wrong as the eyes of the worlds media watched eagerly for a large error. In fact in my opinion the whole thing was absolutely brilliant and showed what a fantastic force we are and bought a great deal ofjoy and confidence to the U.K as a whole.

Just before the start of the ceremony we had one major rush for Euromillions lottery tickets – Everyone I know bought lots and lots of tickets and every shop I went past on my home had people queuing out of the door, along with that most offices had syndicates running and there was a great buzz as to celebrate the Olympics 100 millionares were going to be made in the U.K as part of a raffle, along with a top prize of over €100,000,000. Needless to say I didn’t win the top prize or indeed become a millionaire but I did manage to get a whopping £45!

The point of all my gabbling on is that I think there are much better economic data figures to come from the U.K in the coming weeks and months, more than likely August/September should be a little more positive compared to what we have seen over the past few months which hopefully should lead to Sterling gaining back a little ground against most of the majors.

This is purely my opinion and I don’t know what is going on behind closed doors… With the Bank of England Interest Rate decision due out on Thursday anythnig can indeed be thrown into the mix.

Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange  but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.

 

Pound to Euro set for largest movements today with a quiet Dollar in the background (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates, after a half cent loss to begin the week, on Monday, was on a steady trend of losses throughout Monday and Tuesday, but have begun to produce a positive turn this morning.

This is because today we will get a rare glimpse into the individual make-up of the Eurozone, as performance figures for individual countries will be released in a more comprehensive report, rather than showing a collective average for the group.

The Eurozone has great performers like Germany and under-achievers such as Greece, and this disparity can sometimes be obscured when a birds-eye view is taken of the whole group. Similarly US states have under-performers yet financial markets care little – since there isn’t the same risk of a State losing EU membership with poor economic performance.

Yet today a more detailed picture will emerge with Spanish, Italian, French, German, Greek and Portuguese performance in increasingly important sectors currency market participants review on a daily basis, such as growth, inflation, manufacturing and employment, which will trickle into the traders news feed throughout the morning until 1pm.

The expectation is for a more apprehensive atmosphere towards the Euro, and with the upcoming Dutch election set to kick off a contentious year for the Eurozone, Euro sellers may be wise to take advantage of the slight improvements against your favour since last Friday. Currently anyone selling €200,000 is getting over £2000 during this short period, and the sensible option would be to lock this profit from the market in if you can.

You can speak with me directly through jjp@currencies.co.uk concerning your available options to pre-book your currency ahead of the release of any funds to avoid gambling on a market seeming to present a bit more risk.

Beyond this the French elections have already shown a slightly larger crack in the door for challenges to EU membership from anti-EU parties, but with so much happening in March on both sides of the Channel a shorter term view for your transfer will be wise, it is best to stay in continued contact with a dedicated broker to keep you up to date on any updated forecasts in order to make an informed decision on your transfer.

Conversely the US Dollar and Australian Dollar have opened the day fairly quietly, after an anti-climax with Trump’s first speech to congress delivered last night.

Am an in a well-placed position to do just that. If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with Joshua on 01494 787 478.

 

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