Pound Exchange Rates – When to BUY or SELL Currency – Forecast (Andrew Bromley)

Staying within what seems to be its natural trading range, GBP EUR opened up comfortably within the 1.26 range. The Euro weakened after lunch yesterday following a brief stint within the 1.25 range. Essentially the Eurozone Central Bank had made nearly €1 Trillion available for banks to lend cheaply to their customers, but was not taken advantage of. This lead to the ECB announcing that full blown Quantitative Easing (QE) was a definite for 2015, leading to the Euro losing roughly the cent it had gained.

Looking forwards there is a lot of EUR GBP data out next week, primarily at the beginning of the week…

UK Inflation (CPI) 09:30 Tuesday, German economic sentiment 10:00 Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carneys speech at 10:30 (also Tuesday) and the minutes of the Bank of England’s most recent interest rate decision (Wednesday midday).

If you do have a currency exchange requirement that you’d like to get sorted before Christmas, please feel free to call me directly to the trading floor on 01494 787 478. I’m also contactable direct via email [email protected]

2015 looks to have a lot of volatility from week one (UK Election speculation, Eurozone QE) – make sure you have eliminated as much risk as possible by using contract options available to you from an experienced currency broker.

 

 

Will this sterling rally keep going?

Pound to Dollar Rate Buoyed by UK Employment Data

The pound has had a very turbulent start to 2017 being pulled from pillar to post on all fronts. What started as a reasonably positive year as markets expected a quick Supreme Court decision to help lift sterling soon gave way to Theresa May attracting headlines over her hard Brexit approach. The roller-coaster continues next week with the Supreme Court case being released Tuesday at 09.30 am. Then on Thursday we have the latest UK GDP data. All in all a busy week, how will sterling react?

Most commentators expect the Supreme Court decision will lead to sterling strength as the court upholds the previous decision by the High Court to force Theresa May to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. My personal view is this will be the case and sterling could enjoy a very good start to next week. GBPEUR could hit 1.16-1.17, GBPUSD could hit 1.24-1.25, GBPAUD could hit 1.65-1.66. If you have a transfer to consider then making some plans in advance is well worthwhile to capitalise on the volatility. I do feel any spikes will be short-lived so if you need to buy a foreign currency with the pound making some plans sooner rather than later is the best way forward.

As the market has ‘priced in’ the good news the real risk here is if the previous decision is rejected. Most commentators have reported that this is the big risk, sterling is more likely rise than fall. but if it falls it could be a big all! We have learnt in the last few weeks that nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, things can change very quickly. The best way to limit your exposure is to make yourself aware of any pending exchanges you might have and we can monitor the market and offer you some practical assistance with the timing of your plans.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I have worked for nearly ten years helping clients buy and sell foreign exchange. Whether buying or selling an overseas property or paying foreign currency invoices I can help business and private clients. Even if you deal with another currency broker it is important to point out that all companies are not the same. I am very confident I can undercut any exchange rate you are offered from another currency broker as well as offer you some insight into the timing and planning of your transaction.

The one certainty to me is that pound sterling rates will remain volatile. I would be very interested to hear from you to offer some help with this volatility and help you to maximise your currency transfer. Please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected].

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson

UK Inflation Falls to 1.7% (Matthew Vassallo)

GBPEUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead May 16th

UK inflation figures were released this morning and showed a fall from 1.9% to 1.7%. This is the second consecutive month that figures have been below the BoE’s target rate of 2% and will help to reaffirm belief that the UK economic recovery process is gathering pace. Whilst this is a positive for the UK, the Pound has fallen away from the highs we witnessed a couple of weeks ago against the EUR, USD and AUD. GBP/EUR rates have slipped back below 1.20 and it will be interesting to see whether today’s data can help push rates back through this level.

Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should keep a close eye on Thursday’s UK Retail Sales and Friday’s GDP figures, both of which are likely to be key market movers. If Friday’s GDP figures vary from the 0.7% predicted, then it likely we will see additional volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

GBP/USD levels continue to float around 1.65 on the exchange and despite an improvement in the US economy the USD is still struggling to make a decisive move back towards 1.60. The USD did start to strengthen towards the end of last week, after head of the FED Janet Yellen’s first official press conference since taking her position. She indicated we could see a potential rate hike within 6 months and although this was taken by some with a pinch of salt, it did seem to breathe life back into the USD, as markets reacted positively following the announcement. With positive data expected for the US economy on Wednesday, we could see further USD gains before the end of the trading week.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at [email protected].

“Brexit” vote taking its toll on the Pound – GBP Forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Pound Forecast

Sterling has been dropping in value against all major currencies since the EU referendum on 23rd June. We have also seen consistent poor UK data releases dragging Sterling value down further. The latest data releases were industrial production,manufacturing production and trade balance figures. Industrial production remained stable,but manufacturing production and trade balance data contracted. The worrying factor is that these figures are from June. We are yet to see the first post-brexit figures for July. These are due to be released in September and I think this is when we will start to see the real impact of the vote to leave the EU. Expect the pound to drop further.

The Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates this month from the already record low of 0.5% to 0.25% and also introduced Quantitative Easing (QE) to the value of £60bn. (QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, this generally weakens the currency in question.) Ian McCafferty a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the BOE has stated that if UK data continues to come in below par more monetary policy change will need to take place.

If you are selling Sterling, it would be wise to move sooner rather than later.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is a key factor during such volatile times, If you have a veteran broker on board he or she can be your eyes and ears in the market to assist in making an informed decision. If you would like me to work on your trade I will be happy to help. Please inform me of  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. The authors of Pound Sterling Forecast all work at Foreign Currency Direct. We are constantly up to date with the events that move the currency markets with the majority of us writing two blogs per day. By using our brokerage you would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do not hesitate to get in touch by contacting me at [email protected]. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance. Yo can also fill in the contact form below and I will be in touch as soon as possible.

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Sterling gains against the Dollar, Flat against the AUD and NZD and also loses against the Euro

The Pound has had a mixed day today gaining ground against the U.S Dollar yet losing against currencies such as the Euro and South African Rand. Rates have remained reasonably flat against the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar which are usually fairly volatile currencies.

We saw that Deutsche Bank expect Australia to fall into recession in 2013 which may mean that it is coming to crunch time for those of you holding out that still have Australian Dollars to sell. here is a link with that story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443855804577602552781925554.html

Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has backed bond buying plans by the European Central bank which has led to a little Euro strength over the day and also is more than likely why we have seen the Pound gain ground against the U.S Dollar as investors have probably gained back a little confidence in the markets following these comments, pulled out of their ‘safer haven’ investments such as the USD and put them into riskier investments such as the South African Rand.

A decrease in demand for the Dollar following this of course then weakens the currency which may be why we have seen such shifts in trading today.

Tomorrow the most important release on the markets is in the form of the FOMC minutes over in the States, basically the minutes from the last Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision which may involve the discussions around QE3 (Quantitative Easing) and could lead to some overnight volatility depending on what has been discussed.

QE is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned however this has been fairly common knowledge that we may see QE3 at some point in the future so mentions of it being put back may actually strenghen the Dollar.

The most important release for the U.K this week is GDP or Gross Domestic Product figures out for the U.K on Friday, expectation is to see a revised figure to be slightly better for the U.K which may give the Pound a slight boost at the end of the week so if you have a foreign currency you are looking to sell then tomorrow and Thursday may be your opportunity.

For a free analysis of your position and what may move your rate of exchange in the coming weeks and months please feel free to speak with me Daniel Wright directly on 01494 787 478 or you can email me on [email protected] I welcome private and corporate clients of any size so do feel free to contact me today.

The slightest change in exchange rates can make quite a difference to the cost of an overseas property or the amount you will get back from the sale of one, get in touch with me today if you are in a position regarding overseas property and I shall be more than happy to assist you.

Should I Buy or Sell GBP At The Moment?

GBPEUR Showing Weakness Despite Strong Data

The answer as ever rests with which currency you are holding but if you do need to buy or sell currency for transfer abroad or back to the UK then the following is my generic overview of trends I expect to see in the currency market.

GBP – Sterling has rallied notably against Euro rising to a near 4 year high however much of this has been down to turmoil in Europe rather than real sterling strength as can be seen when you cross reference GBP rates with most currencies outside Europe.  With another £50bn of QE added by the Bank of England, and Governor Mervyn King admitting the UK wasn’t even halfway through its own economic problems, I would expect sterling to remain vulnerable as there is still a very outside chance of an interest rate cut in the UK if QE doesn’t work.  If you are holding most non European currencies then current levels to buy GBP are pretty good, however with the recent spike against the Euro (and CHF, PLN, and HUF) then it may be a good time to buy them- sterling has rallied nearly 3% in about 2 weeks so even if
you only need a £5k transfer for spending over the summer it would still save
you £150!

EURWith a number of countries having been bailout out the single currency is still
under fire as no solution on how to tackle the debt problem can yet be reached
between Germany and the rest.  This has created massive Euro weakness and provided a great buying opportunity from both the US Dollar and sterling.  I do not think
the crisis will likely end any time soon and I think the Dollar will likely remain robust as a safe haven but I do fear sterling may be slightly overvalued at present against the single currency until we see the UK economy turning around.

CHF – Given the Swiss National Bank decision to keep a base peg of 1.20 to the Euro it has meant the CHF has lost its safe haven status, and pretty much as the Euro has weakened so has the CHF.  Pretty much for any trade involving Swiss read Euro until the SNB change tack.

USD – Job creation figures in the US have been positive but a lot weaker than expected.  This is likely to be a key election debate between Republicans and Democrats this year and how to tackle the economic slump- this will be key as once again the US national debt will come up for
debate in the run up to November which could weaken the Dollar as politicians
bring the US with brinkmanship to further their own policies.  The other big threat to the Dollar is the possibility of “QE3” stateside and an extension of “Operation Twist”.  However whilst crisis reigns in Europe, investors will need a safe haven which will be the Dollar.  As such expect USD to remain strong against both GBP and EUR.

AUD mining still dominates the Aussie as China still hoovers up huge amounts of its natural
resources.  Wobbles in Chinese growth have seen the Aussie see-saw between 1.50 and just over 1.60 in the last couple of months and despite a fairly recent rate cut Down Under which temporarily weakened the currency I expect to see the Aussie strong against GBP unless the
RBA cut rates much further.

If you do want to transfer funds and want to see how a broker can help then please feel free to e-mail Colm at [email protected] for an overview of where I think your currency may head and a good exchange rate.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Today – Non Farm Payroll Data One To Be Wary Of Tomorrow Whilst The UK Is Off!

GBPEUR Showing Weakness Despite Strong Data

Today sees the release of the Bank Of England Interest rate decision, no change in rates is expected and to be honest I feel it will probably be a bit of a non event, however be aware that the BOE do like to throw a spanner into the works whenever the Pound does start to perform well so anyhting could happen.

The key data for people to be aware of is U.S Non Farm Payroll data – Regular readers will be aware this can effect all major currencies and can lead to just as much market volatility as an interest rate decision. Now, the big problem is that we have a bank holiday in the U.K this means that you will find it hard to call your bank or broker to book out an exchange rate should rates either move drastically against you or indeed in your favour. There are options available to youand I can help you should your bank not offer these options. You can place a limit order and a stop loss order, this means you set yourself an ideal trading level, or a worst case scenario and should either get hit then your currency is bought out or sold automatically for you, I would then merely get in touch after the Easter break to inform you and you would be required to settle the contract with us as per normal.

I work for Froeign Currency Direct and built this site to help give people simple information on the markets without all the technical analysis that quite simply confuses people, If you find my site of use or want to get more information on how I can save you money then do feel free to email me directly [email protected] and I shall be happy to help.

Are the Swiss National Bank Coming Close To Making the Swiss Franc (CHF) Weaker again?

Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly [email protected] with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

U.K unemployment comes down to 7.1% – Sterling spikes (Daniel Wright)

Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright

U.K unemployment figures have come out positive once again this morning leading to a nice spike in the value of the Pound for those looking to purchase a property or send money overseas for any reason in the near future.

Sterling exchange rates are now at a 12 month high and the year has really started off on the right foot for U.K economic data which of course has led to the Pound following suit.

Everything is indeed moving in the right direction however there are slight concerns that the economic recovery is not quite as good as is being made out so do be aware that these rates may not be around forever.

If you have a currency transaction to carry out and you want to get the very best rates of exchange for it, whether you are based in the U.K or overseas then feel free to contact me personally and I will be more than happy to help you.

You can email me on [email protected] with a brief description of your needs and a contact number, I will then be more than happy to call you back.

Expect Volatility after the BOE Interest Rate Decision (Daniel Johnson)

We could see big movement for Sterling against all major currency pairings today. Although the chance of a change from the 0.5% we currently sit at is very slim, the Monetary Policy Committee vote is what could really cause the swing. The MPC’s nine members vote for or against a rate hike. We have consistently seen Ian McCafferty vote for a rate hike although with news of global slow down spurred on by China’s poor growth figures, he may be about to change his mind. Another member of the MPC Andy Haldane has indicated there may even need to be a rate drop before a hike. If there is any significant changes in the voting expect movement across the board. If we see the vote remain at 8-1, Sterling should rally. Personally I think this is a strong possibility with McCafferty remaining stubborn, Haldane would really be causing a shock by calling for a drop in rates.

I do have several large GBP-EUR trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest. I will guarantee to beat any bank or brokerage’s exchange rates.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on [email protected] or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

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