GBP/EUR the most volatile of Sterling’s pairings (Joshua Privett)

GBPEUR rate remains steady as markets await the Autumn Budget

The final day of the week saw GBP/EUR being the most watched currency pairing for Sterling on the currency markets, as buying Euro rates had a high to low difference of 2 cents. Furthermore, the rates themselves took on the character of a roller coaster, both rising and falling by factors of whole Cents.

The reason for such uncharacteristic movements is rooted in markets trying to second guess events next week.

Much of Sterling’s recent weakness has been rooted in events in China. As the world’s second largest economy, news of its slowdown has sent ripple effects throughout global financial markets.

Serious slides in Asian, European, and North American markets have meant that confidence in the UK’s lucrative financial service industry is at its lowest point since the financial crisis according to George Osborne.

This lack of confidence in the UK economy has translated into heavy Sterling weakness over the past five business days.

More news is coming out of China very early on Monday morning. As markets are not active over the weekend, a global rush of buying and selling activity ahead of the news caused the serious and contradictory movements on Friday afternoon.

The trade balance data which is set to come out is a key indicator for global financial markets for how the next month will unfold. Some analysts believe that China’s recent steps to severely devalue their currency may have translated into better revenues for their exports, whilst others believe that the slowdown in South-East Asia cannot be fixed so quickly. 

This explains the sharp changes in Sterling’s value in both positive and negative directions, as China’s secretive economy makes it difficult to get a clear consensus on the markets for the nature of the news to come out, and whether this will cause further harm to the UK financial service sector and therefore the Pound.

The news will come out before UK markets open, so anyone with a Euro buying requirement over the next few weeks should contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to discuss a strategy for your transfer and safely navigate the volatility expected at the start of next week and maximise your currency return.

Should poor news come out, we may see similar 1% daily falls of last week, or a stabilisation of China’s economy will see much of the gains for Euro sellers reversed rapidly. A premium is put on being able to act quickly.

I will be at my desk for the release at 7am on Monday, if you notify me of your requirements ahead of time, I can contact you instantly to explain the nature of the news, how the currency markets have reacted, and outline what the trend will likely be for that day in order for you to make an informed decision about your transfer.

As a final point I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and any favourable levels which emerge tomorrow for Euro buyers or sellers can be fixed to avoid any harmful movements in the markets making your currency transfer more expensive in the future.

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get the best deal on your foreign exchange

US/China trade war escalates

As we head towards the tail end of the week we have another busy day ahead on the money markets. Today we have the release of the Bank of England interest rate deciosion at 12:00 followed by our Euro zone counterparts releasing their decision at 12:45. Both central banks are expecting to keep their respective base rates on hold and this is unlikely to cause too much volatility for the GBP/EUR pair but watch out for the post interest rate press conference held by Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank). Often ‘Super’ Mario, as he is affectionately known to some, can be notoriously optimistic about the Euro zone and its future and it is often this and how investors interpret his comments as to what can affect the direction of the Euro – anyone with an interest in the Euro should keep a close eye on this press conference. Likewise watch out for the NIESR GDP estimate for GDP  (Q1 2013 forecast at -0.3%). The NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) is a well respected think tank and often accurate with their predictions, should we see -0.3% growth in Q1 then the UK will be officially back in recession, this data is unlikely to do many favours for the pound.

As with the Euro the pound has had a tricky time of late against the greenback. The pound has fallen some 4.5% since the ‘fiscal cliff’ debacle and is showing little signs of slowing. To me there is more room for the pound to lose against the dollar and you may find a move towards 1.55 short term, particulalry if investor confidence takes a hit and the dollar gains from its ‘safe haven’ tag. I for one however feel the dollar is not the safe haven it once was and I can see the dollar losing ground when the US debt ceiling deadline creeps ever nearer. Unless the US can extend this deadline and congress can reach an agreement, the US cannot afford to pay off its debt and it is effectively bankrupt. Now this scenario is highly unlikley to occur as the knock on effects across the financial markets would be catastrophic, however for me it is likley to put pressure back on the dollar. The deadline as already been extended until mid May (originally was the end of February) – come April/May expect the dollar to see pressure and I for one can see 1.60 return, untill then USD buyers are unlikley to get much change from this market.

Overnight Australian unemployment figures and business sentiment figures were slightly worse than expected. We have seen the Aussie weaken by 0.3% as a result breaching 1.52. Tonight at 00:30 GMT watch out for the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement – this will give insight to future monetary policy and how the economy is performing. This may well hint at future interest rate cuts – we have seen a series of cuts from the RBA over the past 18 months and should this suggest more to come against the dollar could lose out.

Currently this market is proving to be extremely volatile. It is currently not uncommon to see the market swing anywhere between 1-2 cents each day making it extremely difficult to forecast the next market move. For this reason it is becoming increasingly more important for clients to keep in regular contact with their broker. We are here to keep our clients up to date with market trends and have a number of tools to help safeguard and guarantee a particular rate of exchange for delivery at a pre-agreed maturity date. Should you wish to discuss the current market and how this may affect your individual requirement then please do not hesitate to contact me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Inflation the talking point for Tuesday morning for Sterling exchange rates – What will happen with the U.S interest rate decision? (Daniel Wright)

Pound to Dollar forecast: Sterling continues to decline against the US Dollar

Tomorrow morning we see key inflation figures released for the U.K which may set the scene for the rest of the day for Sterling exchange rates. Expectations are for inflation figures to have moved year on year from -0.1% to 0.1% which may give the Pound a minor boost should this figure come out.

With ever dropping oil prices I personally feel that this figure may not achieved and a lower figure may officially come out. If we do see that inflation has failed to creep up to the levels expected then the Pound could be in for a tricky start to the days trading and there may be some opportunities to sell foreign currency and buy Sterling at slightly better levels.

The whole world appears to be watching and waiting to see what happens on Wednesday with the interest rate hike over in the States. It is now widely anticipated that we will see a rate rise which may then lead to a seriously volatile market overnight on Wednesday.

An interest rate hike may give those looking to buy Euros a small window of opportunity as we may see a huge flow of money out of the Euro and into the Dollar, thus weakening the Euro and making it cheaper to buy.

The antipodean currencies may well find themselves involved in a rocky evening too as such important data from the U.S can have an effect on global attitude to risk so we may see a lot of movement shortly after 7pm tomorrow evening.

It is extremely important during these sort of data releases that you ensure you look at possibly having a market order in, just in case there is a big spike in your favour. We offer these orders at no extra cost and they can be cancelled or amended at any time as long as they have not been achieved.

We do not only offer up to date market information but we also help clients exchange currency at  a better price than they have currently been offered. I have helped over 5000 people that have contacted me though this site over the years, most already have a currency broker they were happy with but still found that we managed to save them even more money.

If you would like to discuss a market order or just to get a quote on a currency exchange then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirement and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

Sterling exchange rates suffer again this week – Where will the pound head next? (Daniel Wright)

Key week for GBPUSD exchanges: Will GBPUSD get back over 1.30?

So we have seen yet another poor week for the Pound against all major currencies, seeing Sterling exchange rates drop by over 2% against the Euro, 4% against the Australian Dollar and almost 2% against the U.S Dollar.

Those readers looking to sell foreign currency will have been watching the rate movements with a big smile on their face, the main question now is how long will the rate stick around at these levels??? Will the rate go lower or are we getting close the the Pound hitting its lowest point.

One point to note is that we have seen multi year lows against a number of currencies and at some point I would expect to see the rates bounce back ,the only issue is working out when that may happen.

August had been expected to be a fairly poor month for the Pound as we start to see the first sets of post brexit economic data. On top of this, the Bank of England also decide to throw a triple whammy of fiscal change into the market when announcing an interest rate cut, increase of QE and an addition to their funding for lending project – all last Thursday.

Since we had this announcement sterling has been slowly sinking and I do feel that it may suffer a little more before it does get better.

Next week we have inflation figures, Unemployment data and Retail Sales figures so be prepared for another interesting week ahead.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency exchange or one coming up in the future then I can help you with all aspects mentioned above.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K – You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form below and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.

[contact-form to=’djw@currencies.co.uk’ subject=’PSF 12/08 DJW’][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Contact number’ type=’text’/][/contact-form]

 

GBPEUR and GBPUSD forecast for the remainder of 2015. (Dayle Littlejohn)

Pound rises back above 1.25 level against the Dollar Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

With the European Central Bank not living up to their own hype on Thursday, the amount of Quantitative Easing being injected into the Eurozone economy was not increased however we saw an extension by 6 months.  Forecasters were surprised by the decision as they expected tougher measures.

This led to speculators and investors selling off their US dollars to buy Euros for profit taking purposes. GBPEUR plummeted 3 cents from 1.4150 to 1.3850 where as GBPUSD increased by 2 cents from 1.4950 to 1.5150.

The next key economic announcement is the US interest rate decision on the 16th of December. Janet Yellen and the FED have indicated a rate hike is on the cards and with strong Non Farm payroll numbers (jobs created) last Friday, a rate hike is looking more likely.

If the US raises interest rates I expect we will see a sell off Euros to buy dollars therefore GBPEUR will increase where as GBPUSD will decrease.

However like Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank nothing is certain in the currency markets. The FED have been discussing raising interest rates since 2013, as a result it wouldn’t surprise me if the decision were to stall until 2016.

Until the decision on the 16th I expect GBPEUR will continue to descend due to the steps the European Central Bank have taken on Friday. Where as I predict GBPUSD will remain buoyant above 1.50.

Not only do we offer award winning exchange rates, we also have the tools to minimize your exposure to the market in the form of limit orders and stop losses. For further information regarding limit orders and stop losses email me directly on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer and you would like further information regarding a specific currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc). Feel free to email me with the currency pair and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.

FINALLY IF YOU WOULD SIMPLY LIKE A COMPARISON AGAINST YOUR CURRENT PROVIDER CALL ME MONDAY MORNING AFTER 9AM ON 01494-787-478 AND ASK FOR DAYLE LITTLEJOHN! 

GBPEUR and GBPUSD updates, what is the exchange rate (Steve Eakins)

Cable prices (GBPUSD) have remained fairly flat over the last few trading sessions but expect some movement over the next 36 hours. The reason behind this is that there is a big expectation that the FED will announces additional Quantitative Easing into the US economy at their next meeting tomorrow. In my opinion it is almost certain that FED will announce that they will once again start to buy Treasuries outright, which is a different program compared to Operation Twist which ends later this month.  The figures are scary, the next round is expected to be $45 billion which will make the total spent by the US in these programs to $4 trillion. 

So what will happen to the USD?

Well due to this announcement being wildly expected I would expect little change in rates in the run up to the meeting.  In fact if they come out as expected I would not expect much change after. However the risk is that if they release a different figure this will be priced into the market very quickly, moving rates within a few minutes.  It is this movement that puts everything from house purchases to services costs at risk of costing thousands more.  I am not a risk taker personally so if I was in the markets at the moment I would limit my exposure using a limit or stop loss order. This puts in automatic buying orders if the rates move to a target that you set and as a result limit your exposure in the market.  Generally if I was a dollar buyer anything towards 1.61 would be a buy, if I was a seller, anything towards 1.60 would be a sell.

If you would like more information specific to your situation feel free to contact us, we can put together a personal strategy for you dependant on your risk appetite and time frames. PLUS we have won a number of awards for both our service and our rates of exchange so you can feel comfortable that we will be saving you money on the exchange. Simply put if this was not the case we would not be in business.

EURO news

In Europe the main news has been coming out of Italy over the last 48 hours. Speculation built and was then confirmed by the government that the Italian Prime Minister will resign following the 2013 budget next year.  This weakened the market as he has been seen as a bright light and bit of a savour for what was a struggling country close to leaving the euro earlier this year.  This is all before more data from Germany which is a survey of investor confidence, its forecasted to show a negative figure for a seventh-month in a row.  All very important before their next meeting on Wed-Thur when we will hear more from them about growth forecasts and concerns that European interest rates could fall early next year.

All very concerning for the strength of the Euro that had been forecasted to strengthen in the run up to Christmas, this has now changed with a majority of investors expecting it to fall in the run up to 2013.  So buyers keep riding and sellers move quickly would be my general thought.  Of course timing a trade can make a big difference in itself. Yesterday rates moved by over 0.5% so timing only yesterday to sell €200,000 could have given you an extra £800.  Here we can be your eyes and ears on the market providing a proactive service.  These blogs have the aim to be informative and forward looking for your information but if you are looking to trade currency in the currency market and want to achieve the best price we can be a lot more useful.  Contact us on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk for more information.

I hope this continues to help you.

Thanks,

Steve Eakins

Elite trader

hse@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling’s recent gains be short lived against the Euro and the US Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Trade wars and Brexit continue to be key for GBP and USD

The Pound made some gains vs the Euro and the US Dollar towards the end of this week as the Bank of England confirmed a split of 5-3 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold.

In recent months there has only been one MPC member that has voted for an interest rate hike so Thursday’s announcement came as a shock to the markets.

The reason given by the 3 members was that of rising inflation which is currently running at 2.9%, which is close to the highest level in almost 4 years.

The Bank of England’s primary objective is to keep inflation under control and the target is 2% so the disparity at the moment is rather concerning.

Indeed, with Average Earnings having fallen recently this is leading to a rise in the cost of living and long term if inflation is not kept under control this could be a real concern for the British economy.

However, the good news for the Pound is that if an interest rate hike is coming then this could lead to strength for Sterling exchange rates.

However, we are now just days before the Brexit negotiations begin and my opinion is that the discussions will be both difficult and protracted.

The problem is that there are 27 member states all with the same aim which is to discourage others countries from leaving the European Union. Therefore, I cannot foresee the talks going in the right direction.

As yet the UK has not decided whether it will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and until this is decided this is likely to weigh heavily on the Pound.

As we go into next week I think these recent gains for the Pound will be short lived so if you need to send funds abroad then it may be with taking advantage of this recent spike.

If you would like to make a currency transfer and would like to save money when buying currency compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. 

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Deflation Hits the Eurozone (Matthew Vassallo)

The Eurozone had a tough 2014 with many its member countries suffering from recession, poor growth forecasts and high unemployment levels. This in turn had a negative effect on the EUR, with the single currency struggling to make any sustained inroads against the Pound. 2015 was meant to signal a start of a new dawn for the Eurozone and its recovery but instead the single currency has once again found life tough going, with GBP/EUR levels hitting a fresh two year high last week, moving above 1.29 on the exchange.

Although the EUR found support and spiked back, it is unlikely to signal the end of the turmoil. Today we discovered that the Eurozone has been hit by deflation, which happens when an economies general price levels for goods and services drops and the economies inflation levels fall below 0%. This is a huge setback for the Eurozone and its members but it was to some extent expected and may even have been priced into the markets. GBP/EUR levels have spiked up but not to the extent we may have expected, considering the severity of the report and information at hand.

With GBP/EUR rates now floating between 1.27-1.28, it is likely the Pound will once again put pressure on the recent two year high over the coming weeks. A word of caution however to all those client expecting the Pound to breach 1.30 in the short-term, every time rates have reached such heights over the past 12 months, the EUR has consistently found support and moved away from this level. With the Bank of England (BoE) still keen to control Sterling’s value, I do not feel it is a given that we will see the pair move through 1.30.

With uncertainty surrounding when UK interest rates may rise, there are still a number of uncertainties that could knock the Pound very quickly and for this reason I would certainly consider my positon around the current levels.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Brexit transitional deal likely to continue to drive GBP exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

Brexit no deal worries still holding Sterling back against Euro

It’s been a quiet year for GBP exchange rates considering the price swings last year, especially in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Sterling has managed to slowly recover against many major currency pairs, with the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate up almost 9% this year against the US Dollar. In recent weeks and since the Bank of England decided to raise rates back to 0.5% we’ve seen the Pound trading around the top end of it’s current trends and it’s even trading around a 6-month high against the ever strengthening Euro.

Now that the first round of Brexit negotiations are out of the way, even if only just as the Northern Irish border issues almost scuppered the Brexit bill deal, I’m expecting to see Brexit related information continue to drive Sterling exchange rates.

Those hoping for better rates to convert Sterling into other foreign currencies should be wary of how comments from key figures within the Brexit process can result in swings for GBP exchange rates, and that holding off in the hope of seeing the Pound climb further is a risk. Not long ago GBP/EUR hit an 8-year low with most of the market movement this year being driven by Brexit or Brexit related issues.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding GBP exchange rates do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound falls after Theresa May’s speech

Pound to Canadian Dollar forecast Brexit remains in Limbo

This week markets eagerly awaited UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Friday afternoon speech. The speech has been received well within the UK and from MPs within the Conservative party, however the Europeans are not impressed and believe Mrs May continues with the approach of ‘having your cake and eating it’.

The purpose for the 7000 word speech was to unblock trade talks which are supposed to start at the end of the month. Clarity has been provided and ultimately Mrs May is demanding that the UK have a bespoke deal. Europeans have and will continue to call this cherry picking. To discuss the speech in more detail and how the speech will impact your exchange rate feel free to email me directly (Dayle Littlejohn) drl@currencies.co.uk.

The pound lost value from Wednesday all the way through to the close of play on Friday and I expect to see new support and resistance levels for the pound in the upcoming weeks. Unfortunately for people buying a foreign currency the support levels will be lower, meaning you will be receiving a worse exchange rate.

The question now is will trade talks begin later in the month, or could there are actually be no deal? If there was no deal, I expect the pound would plummet like a stone. Therefore anyone that is a buying a foreign currency in the upcoming months and are close to budget should make arrangements this week.

However, as we have come so far with the EU I expect negotiations to continue and eventually the UK will give in to more of the EU demands which will pave way for trade negotiations. The currency company I work for helps clients when it comes to exchanging currency. Quite simply we beat UK banks and brokerages exchange rates. For a quote please email drl@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements.

When buying or selling pounds, you need to analyse the other currency that you will be converting. This week there are many key data releases to look our for around the globe, here are a few.

Monday the US release Markit Services data, Tuesday Australia release their interest rate decision followed by a speech by Governor Philip Lowe, European GDP and the Canadian interest rate decision will be released Wednesday, the ECB will release their latest minutes Thursday and the UK will finish the week with Industrial and manufacturing production numbers on Friday.

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