Pound to Euro Exchange Rates in Final Stages of Brexit

GBP EUR Lower After Retail Sales Disappoint

Pound to Euro exchange rates have pushed back over 1.14 ahead of a volatile couple of weeks, with another important vote in British politics approaching. UK Prime Minister Teresa May has written to all MPs within the Conservative Party to try and rally support for her Brexit deal. A meaningful vote will be held in Parliament on the 27th February and if she is unable to find support for the existing Brexit deal then there will be another amendment put forward to be tabled by Yvette Cooper and Sir Oliver Letwin.

This amendment would see an extension of Article 50 which would mean Britain wouldn’t leave the EU on 29th March. This could potentially create more uncertainty for the pound. Whether or not this vote would prove successful remains to be seen, but it is clear that there is a great deal of uncertainty ahead for pound to Euro exchange rates with so many differing outcomes on Brexit.

EU will not re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agreement

For the time being Brexit negotiations continue to try and find an alternative to the controversial Irish backstop. However the EU insists that the withdrawal agreement cannot be re-opened and hence this still leaves the prospect of a no deal Brexit on the table. It will be interesting to see what comes out of these recent negotiations between the UK and EU. Anything positive that would give legal certainty that the backstop would be temporary could help get the deal over the line in Parliament.

Whilst the Prime Minister may lose the meaningful vote it is worth remembering that it has been enshrined in law that if no agreement is reached then the UK will be leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. This could see considerable disruption in the short term for the British economy and for pound to Euro exchange rates.

Euro exchange rates impacted by Eurozone issues

The Euro has also been receiving a lot of attention of late with some very big changes happening to the economic picture. With Italy now officially in recession and so soon after its last recession the outlook doesn’t look optimistic, especially with Germany and France also seeing a downward trend in its growth forecasts.

Germany’s large export markets to the UK and China particularly for vehicles could see big problems for the EU’s biggest economy if trade with China slows further and if Brexit is disorderly. For the Euro the outcomes on the trade talks between the US and China and what happens with Brexit will play a major factor in the strength of Euro exchange rates.

Please do feel free to use the form below if you’d like to ask me a question about pound to Euro exchange rates. I’ll be happy to contact you personally.

GBP/USD exchange rates edge lower due to UK economic data and US border security deal

GBP USD Exchange Rate Steadies Above Near Two-Year Low

UK growth predicted to slow in 2019

UK economic data has been in the spotlight since the Bank of England last week announced there growth forecasts for the year ahead. The Governor Mark Carney predicted that growth this year will be the slowest since 2009 and blamed the uncertainty of Brexit as one of the key factors. To make things worse yesterday’s growth numbers released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth numbers at 1.4% which was down by 0.4%. With the UK economy slowing, this is a key concern for clients that are converting sterling into US dollars in the short term.

US border security deal

Across the Atlantic, Republicans and Democrats appear to have reached an agreement in principle over border security and in particular the wall that will separate the US and Mexico. By agreeing a deal in principle reports are suggesting that another Government shutdown is unlikely, which bodes well for clients that are selling US dollars to buy pounds.

Earlier in the year President Donald Trump’s partial shutdown lasted 35 days and was the longest in history. According to Forbes the shutdown cost the US Government $11bn, which just shows the importance of this deal in principle.

Theresa May to brief MPs on the state of the Brexit negotiations

Looking further ahead, it’s an important day for UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The PM will be back in the House of Commons briefing fellow MPs on the state of the Brexit negotiations. Unless she has been keeping updates from the media, there isn’t much to report as no party has come up with a solution for the Irish backstop. Therefore I expect the PM to come under further scrutiny and MPs will continue to claim she is running down the clock, which could put pressure on sterling.

As for economic data Governor of the Bank of England will be deliver a speech around midday and later in the afternoon Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also give a speech. Both central bankers will highlight the state of the UK and US economy which in turn could provide volatile trading periods.

After the economic data releases we have seen for the UK over the last week, I find it difficult to see how Mark Carney can be upbeat. However any nod to the border security from the Fed Chair could be seen as a positive for the US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, the currency company I work for offers exchange rates that can beat the high street banks, alongside up to date economic information which helps clients to make informed decisions when purchasing currency. If you would like further information for free, please feel the form in below and I will personally get in touch.

GBP vs AUD: Australian Dollar drops after RBA comments signal a bearish outlook

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Slides as Hard Brexit Bets Build-Up

GBP vs AUD forecast: The Australian Dollar dropped dramatically last night, after comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were more bearish than expected and this caught the markets off-guard. The RBA chose to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. This was expected by the markets, so when this announcement was made there was little movement. It was the comments made by RBA governor, Phillip Lowe that caused the market movement when he acknowledged that the chances of an interest rate cut have increased.

The interest rate down under is already sitting at a record low, so another cut would be a new record low and previously the markets had anticipated that the next move would be an increase in interest rates.

GBP vs AUD: Pound weakness following UK service sector data

Sterling had spent most of yesterday down vs the Australian Dollar after some disappointing data was released from the services sector. This is the key area of the UK’s economy as it covers around two-thirds of the economy. The reading was the lowest in 2 and a half years and its usually watched closely by the markets for the aforementioned reasons. At the moment it’s UK politics that’s having the biggest impact on the Pound’s value but yesterday we saw economic data impact the rates which is quite unusual at the moment.

Brexit remains the key driver for GBP vs AUD

Brexit related updates are likely to remain the main driver of GBP based fluctuations, especially now that the due date is less than two months away. Last month we saw the Pound trade towards its lower and upper annual trading ranges in just the space of once month. The expected volatility has also increased as the markets await Brexit news and I think that there could be major movements, in either direction depending on whether the EU will be prepared to budge or not regarding the current terms of the deal.

I personally believe that if there is an extension to Article 50 that the Pound will climb, whilst I’m also of the belief that a no deal scenario will result in a steep drop in the Pound’s value against all major currency pairs.

Bank of England interest rate decision this Thursday

In the short term the next potential market mover is likely to be this Thursday when the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision. No changes are expected, but the comments afterwards could impact GBP vs AUD exchange rates so feel free to register your interest if you wish to be updated if there’s a spike in the rates.

You can contact me directly with any questions you may have about GBP vs AUD exchange rates using the form below:

Pound to Dollar forecast: Should I buy US dollars now ?

Pound to Dollar Rate Choppy Ahead of BoE Meeting

In recent weeks Pound to Dollar rates, also known as cable exchange rates, have been on the rise. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into US dollars today compared to the middle of December, now generates $12,000 more.

US Dollar weakness

The US dollar has been on the decline due to the US Government shutdown. Donald Trump shutdown part of the Government in a bid to persuade Congress to back the wall that he wants built between the US and Mexico. The shutdown lasted 35 days and was the longest shutdown in US history. For the time being the shutdown is over, however reports are suggesting the shutdown could have cost approximately $11bn.

Pound strength fading

Up until yesterday evening the pound had been strengthening due to the chances of a no deal crash out Brexit diminishing. However, last night this changed. MPs voted in favour of Graham Brady’s amendment which stated Theresa May would go back to Brussels and inform the Europeans that the backstop is not acceptable and therefore the UK need an alternative arrangement.

Now that MPs want Theresa May to renegotiate, this completely opens the door for a crash out no deal as the European leaders in Brussels have made it clear that they will not renegotiate at this stage. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with Jeremy Corbyn today to discuss the ongoing Brexit saga but I don’t expect the talks to be productive and she will head to Brussels later in the week to continue the negotiation.

My personal opinion is that we will be in the same position in two weeks time and Theresa May is running down the clock. Therefore I think it’s now likely that one of three options will materialise.

  1. The UK crash out of the EU and the pound plummets in value
  2. Article 50 is extended and exchange rates remain range-bound in the high 1.20s
  3. MPs cannot come to a decision by the end of March and because there is a majority in the House to block a no deal, MPs are forced to put it back to the people. Short term I expect rates to continue to remain range-bound, and the result will dictate the value of the pound thereafter.

All in all I don’t see GBP/USD exchange rates rising much further in the short term term, therefore US dollar buyers may wish to act sooner rather than later. For more information in regards to Pound to Dollar exchange rates and a more in depth forecast feel free to feel the form in below to outline your requirements.

Pound to Euro rate hits two month high

Was the Pound’s Sell-Off “Overdone”?

May’s landslide defeat on deal means she may have to consider other options

Sterling has made gains against the Euro hitting the highest levels in over two months. The Pound to Euro rate breached 1.14 overnight.

This was due to the chances of a no deal now seeming less likely. It was deemed that the 230 vote defeat on Theresa May’s Brexit deal was by such a landslide that the government may have to look at different options, such as a second referendum.

I think the likely outcome would be a delay on Article 50. How much use this will be is yet to be known. Brussels have stated on several occasions they are unwilling to make any concessions on the current deal. Mrs May delayed the original vote on her deal in December due to the lack of faith in getting the current deal through Parliament. The delay was meant to provide Theresa May with time to negotiate better terms with the EU, she was stonewalled.

If Brussels stance is not going to change then the delay would only benefit a no deal scenario as there would be more time to prepare. Brussels has also stated that they would only accept an extension if there was to be a second referendum.

If a second referendum is announced expect Sterling to rally, current polls suggest a victory for the remainers. A second referendum would boost investor confidence and in turn the pound.

If it is the case that there is a delay for further negotiations I would expect the Pound to Euro rate to remain at current buoyancy levels with 1.15 remaining a key resistance point as it has been for more than 18 months.

I think Theresa May has been using the no deal scenario as ammunition to gain concessions from the EU. She has tried demonstrating the willingness for a no deal by organising such things as the lorry trial in Kent, this may well be posturing. The problem you have is many in Parliament particularly Jeremy Corbyn want a no deal Brexit scenario ruled out completely, this however would ruin one of the only cards Mrs May is holding. Morgan Stanley believe there is now less than 5% chance of a no deal.

It looks like Parliament don’t want a deal in general and Brussels’ offer is well below par and they are unwilling to come back to the negotiating table. No one wants a no deal Brexit so despite many feeling a second referendum would be undiplomatic it may be the wisest option.

Personally, I think Brexit was mis-sold and there was a complete lack of preparation. I think a second referendum would be diplomatic now we have an informed public.

Eurozone has key issues which could result in Euro weakness

The Euro has its own problems. Tensions continue to rise from the gilets jaunes situation and a large section of the French population are backing demonstrations. This is not only hurting the French economy, but is also causing political uncertainty which is also hitting the Euro.

Quantitative Easing has now ended and it will be interesting to see how the Euro copes considering the debt situation in Italy and Greece. Germany, which is considered to be the engine room for the bloc is also set to enter a recession.

The Euro could be set to have a tough time against the majority of major currencies, let us be careful about including the pound in the statement however.

Brexit uncertainty will continue to weigh down the pound and I would be surprised to see the Pound’s advance continue, we have already lost half a cent during this morning’s trading. I think 1.15 will hold up as a resistance point.

If you are buying euros in the short to medium term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted using the form below:

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar set to lose value

Trump trade optimism sends the Pound to AUD rate lower

US Dollar Forecast: Trade War and Forward Monetary Policy does not bode well for US Dollar

The US Dollar could be facing a rough year. Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell has had a dovish tone when discussing potential rate hikes at his past few press conferences and the new stance from the Fed seems justified considering the problems that are facing the US economy.

US President, Donald Trump has put in place a partial Government shut down in an attempt to force funding for his US/Mexico wall. This is now the longest partial shutdown in history. President Trump remains stubborn and the shutdown is set to continue. It will not be long before this begins to affect US economic data.

The US-China trade war also could be set to escalate. There is currently a 90 day truce in place where tariffs are not in effect. The truce was put in place under the condition that China would come to the negotiation table to discuss changing their current economic strategy. Chinese President, Xi Jinping will be reluctant to make any changes and we could see the Chinese make as few concessions as possible and attempt to elongate the trade war until Donald Trump is no longer in power.

It is a dangerous game as President Trump has threatened to implement a huge increase on Chinese goods and services to 25%. China would no doubt retaliate and this has the potential to hit the US economy hard, and in turn the US Dollar. The Dollar could have a tough time against the majority of major currencies.

Could the Pound strengthen against the US Dollar?

If it were not for the terrible state of affairs in the UK due to Brexit, I feel the pound could be making decent gains against the US Dollar. The Brexit situation is shrouded in uncertainty and I think at present the most logical option would be a second referendum. Brussels’ deal is unacceptable with British MPs not prepared to put the deal through. The EU have made their stance clear that they are not willing to make any concessions and it does not look like they are willing to budge, look at what happened when May delayed the December vote to re-negotiate. She was stone walled.

Popular opinion is that there will be a delay to Article 50, but this seems pointless if there is no room for re-negotiation. Despite many feeling a second referendum would be undiplomatic I think it is the opposite. I don’t think people knew what they were voting for. I don’t think anyone believed the deal on offer would be this poor and a no deal Brexit causes too much risk. A second referendum in my eyes is the most diplomatic way forward.

The likelihood is for a delay, which would no doubt keep the pound in a fragile position for the foreseeable.

If you have to purchase the Greenback short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour. If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an a message using the form below with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving.

Pound vs US Dollar: Defeat for the Brexit deal but Sterling improves against the US Dollar

GBP USD Exchange Rate Edges Higher on Rate Hike Expectations 

The Pound has made gains vs the US Dollar overnight even though Theresa May lost the vote on the current Brexit deal by a majority of 230.

With only 202 voting in favour of the Brexit deal and 432 voting against the withdrawal agreement this is the largest defeat for a government since 1924.

The leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn has moved for a vote of no confidence in government and this will be put forward for debate today.

One concerning issue for Theresa May is that a total of 118 Tories voted against her plans. Although, as proved when the recent vote of no confidence occurred, Theresa May passed the test with flying colours, so I would expect the same result to happen once again.

Clearly MPs cannot come to an agreement with the current Brexit deal on offer but Tories and the DUP will stick together and have claimed that Labour are just using the opportunity to aim for a general election rather than coming up with an alternative deal.

Why has the Pound gained vs the US Dollar?

The reason why we have seen the Pound make gains across the board including vs the US Dollar is that the chances of a Brexit taking place by 29th March now appear to be getting less likely and this is why the market has stabilised in Sterling’s favour overnight.

Clearly, there is still a lot to be debated and with Theresa May due to provide the ‘Plan B’ on Monday I cannot see why this will be voted through compared to last night’s result.

The European Court of Justice has said on a number of occasions that the UK can revoke Article 50 any time up until the end of March. If we head towards a ‘no deal’ Brexit this could provide the UK with the opportunity to either revoke Article 50 or more likely delay the talks in order to try and find a resolution.

Pound vs US Dollar rates: What’s next?

In the short term I think the Pound could move above 1.29 but struggle to break towards 1.30 and above, unless we have some negative news from the US.

Later on today the US will release both Import and Export data as well as Jobless Claims tomorrow so this is likely to set the tone for Pound vs US Dollar exchange rates towards the end of the week.

I have personally worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 and I’m confident that with my experience I can help you save money when buying currency compared to using your bank or another broker. If you would like a quote, or would like to discuss the outlook for Pound vs US Dollar rates please feel free to contact me directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro rates: How will GBP/EUR perform following the Brexit vote?

GBPEUR: Sterling Loses Ground Ahead of Rates, Election

Pound to Euro rates could be in for a very volatile period as the market digests the latest new on Brexit expected in the next 24 hours. All eyes will be on the Parliamentary vote this evening but it might be tomorrow and the rest of the week which delivers on the fresh news.

Clients concerned with the pound against the Euro could be in for a very volatile few days as investors track the latest news and reprice the value of the pound. The outcomes are wide ranging from the Brexit vote and the rest of this week. Clients with a position to buy or sell the pound should be very conscious of the potential for large unexpected movement.

The vote takes place anytime after 7pm tonight (UK time) with the result not expected until much later in the evening. Clients with positions to buy or sell the pound might wish to take stock of the volatile trading conditions and put some careful plans in place.

Options to help manage your exposure

A Limit order will guarantee an exchange rate if the market moves to a point of your choosing and is a great tool in such conditions. Another option is a forward contract which allows you to secure your currency in advance, even if you don’t have all the funds available.

The pound has been labelled impossible to trade in recent weeks as investors avoid the currency for fear of unexpected volatility sharply moving the currency markets and catching them off guard.

The GBP/EUR rate could easily slip below 1.10 if the deal is defeated heavily in Parliament and markets have loosely priced in bad news. Any sign the bill will not be defeated and passes, or fails only slightly, with the opportunity for Theresa May to go back to Brussels, would likely see sterling higher.

The possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Government, a second referendum and extending Article 50 could all see a dramatic time for the pound. Theresa May will have to the end of the week to respond, the pound will take it cues from this news.

If you have a position to buy or sell the pound against the Euro, why not speak to me today to receive some guidance on what may be the best way forward. You can contact me directly using the form below:

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will GBP/EUR perform in January?

The Pound Continues to Struggle as Coronavirus Takes Hold

In this pound to Euro forecast we look ahead at the events that could influence GBP/EUR rates in January. What can we expect in January and will GBP/EUR rates drop further?

January is looking to be a crucial month for Brexit which is the main driver of the pound to Euro rate. The pound has been weaker in recent weeks as investors lack of understanding of the Brexit is reflected in the price of the pound. The Euro has been finding some favour too, further exacerbating the trend on the pair.

The key date for January will be the week commencing 14th January where we have the next scheduled Parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This might still be postponed and there are conflicting reports over just what we might expect from this episode.

Ultimately, we might still be looking at a no-deal scenario which would see the pound weaken, many forecasters had previously placed GBP/EUR at closer to parity should we see this turn of events.

What might be more likely is that we see either a General Election or a second EU Referendum as the number of options available diminishes and we are left with these outcomes. I believe either of these outcomes would see the pound much lower as investors are forced to consider the potentially negative elements.

There is now a growing sense that the pound will only struggle further in the coming weeks as even if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is passed, there will then be a whole new set of questions over just how Brexit will pass.

Pound to Euro Forecast: How will the Euro perform?

The Euro is stronger entering 2019 as investors find comfort from the resolution over the Italian budget standoff and also warm to the idea of the ECB, European Central Bank, making further progress with their economic plans.

For clients with a GBP/EUR currency exchange in 2019, now could be a very good time to review your position. The expectation is for increased uncertainty over Brexit but any signs the political or economic situations in the Eurozone are not going to plan, would weigh on the Euro.

I expect to encounter a range of 1.07-1.15 in the month, taking account of the possibility of all eventualities.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to welcoming any questions or comments. If you would like to discuss anything in my pound to Euro forecast please use the form below to send me a message:

Pound to Euro Rate Falls During Overnight Flash Crash

A Rollarcoaster Week for GBP EUR - Weekly Review June 18th 

The pound to euro rate has fallen lower as we have moved into 2019 with rates for the GBP to EUR pair having fallen to below 1.1050. A mini flash crash was seen in overnight trading with a sudden but short lived fall in the pound which has been attributed to low liquidity conditions at this time of year and at this time of night when many of the exchange markets were shut whilst Japan is enjoying a four day holiday. The crash also appears to stem from a poor set of forecasts for Apple Inc’s revenue which saw substantial losses in its share value, which in turn is having a knock on effect on the currency markets with GBP to EUR trading lower.

Pound to Euro rate: Concerns as 2019 begins

2019 starts the year with a number of major concerns over Brexit as well as the continued uncertainty over the US trade wars. There are real concerns for the Chinese economy and this impacts on the global economy too. With the prospect of the US applying further trade tariffs on all of China’s exports then there is likely to be more reaction for the pound and euro to any developments here.

Brexit meanwhile is already proving to be the main driver for the pound and this is expected to intensify in these coming weeks after Parliament returns from the Christmas recess on the 7th of January. The Parliamentary vote that was to be held before Christmas is now scheduled to be voted on before 21st January, with the 14th January a likely date.

Debating of the Brexit deal that has been agreed between the UK and EU will commence on the 9th of January. It has already been reported that one of the former Brexit secretary’s David Davis, has said that there is not enough support for the deal at this point in time and is urging that the vote be delayed again. The continued uncertainty over whether or not there will be a Brexit deal is keeping the pound on the back foot and there is every chance the pound may fall further in the run up to this important Parliamentary vote.

If Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to secure a majority in the House of Commons then the default option on Brexit is to revert to a no deal and this outcome is proving to be a distinct possibility which carries negative risk for the pound to euro rate.

If you would like to learn more about pound to euro exchange rates please do feel free to send me a message using the form below:

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