Is the Pound overvalued or undervalued in the current market? (Joseph Wright)

Those planning on making currency exchanges involving the Pound and another major currency have a lot to consider in the current market, with the overall picture for the Pound being particularly mixed.

The headlines over the past week will highlight that the Pound is trading around it’s highest levels against the Euro this side of the new year, but in my opinion these headlines are creating almost a false sense of security regarding the Pounds value and the currency isn’t quite as strong as many may think.

When you compare the Pounds value with the ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Australian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar you’ll see that the Pound is trading around multi-year lows.

The fact that the formal start to the ‘Brexit’ is now most likely less than one month away and all eyes are likely to be on the UK and how it’s economy is performing during this uncertain time, I personally think that there could be further falls to come for the Pound over the next few months and especially if there are breakdowns in trade negotiation talks.

GBP/EUR hitting new 2017 highs can be put down to Euro weakness as the Euro weakened across the board earlier this week. The Euro weakened as a opinion poll in France confirmed that far-right French Presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen is gaining popularity. Le Pen gaining traction could spell trouble for the Euro as she’s outlined plans for France to leave the Euro and start using the French Franc again along with leaving the Eurozone.

Those planning a currency exchange between this particular pair may wish to register their details with us in order to be kept up to date with how this topic unfolds.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on [email protected] in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with Joe on 01494 787 478.

Sterling Rallies Following Latest Brexit Polls (Matthew Vassallo)

The pound set to make it a hattrick of daily gains versus the dominant dollar

Those clients holding Sterling received a welcome boost today, following aggressive spikes for the Pound against a basket of major currencies. Sterling was boosted by the latest Brexit poll, which indicated that the Remain vote was up to 55%. The EU referendum has dominated headlines for many weeks and will confirm to do so up until the vote on June 23rd.

Whilst I was not anticipating any sustained Sterling strength under current market conditions, the fact that we have now had two separate polls indicate a relatively healthy lead for the Remain camp, the markets are viewing this as a major positive for the UK economy. I am still wary about assuming this strength will continue, as I have no doubt we will hear conflicting reports over the coming weeks, which are likely to bring back that market uncertainty. In fact if you think back only a couple of weeks we saw a similar, if slightly less aggressive move for the Pound. Those gains were quickly eradicated on the back of some negative reports and I would be very tempted to secure my position, rather than assume that this positive spike is here to stay.

I am still not convinced that the UK economy is strong enough to act as a catalyst for GBP to continue this run and with the Bank of England (BoE) remaining steadfast in their commitment to control Sterling’s value, for fear of alienating the Eurozone (our largest trade partner). They will be keeping a very close eye on today’s developments and should they need to I have little doubt that they will step in total down a facet of our recovery, with the hope this will ease market confidence in the Pound.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movement, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be directly on [email protected]

Pound to Euro forecast ahead of European Elections

ECB interest rates and Brexit update

The Pound to Euro exchange rate remains sensitive to Brexit developments following the Parliamentary Easter recess.

GBP/EUR rates made some small in-roads following the Easter weekend but the markets are now poised for any significant developments in the coming days. Much attention is moving to the European elections to be held 23rd May and the Government has already put the structure in place for this to go ahead with polling cards already sent out to the electorate.

There is likely to be considerable volatility for GBP to EUR rates on the back of any developments in these European elections and could change the shape of how the electorate vote. With the recent emergence of the Independent Party as well as the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage there could be something of a revolution in British politics.

The uncertainty in the British political system is creating a major headache for sterling exchange rates and this looks set to continue for some time yet.

Any compromise between the Labour and Conservative parties over some form of customs union to reach a deal on Brexit could see a rally for the Pound vs the Euro. This outcome however remains questionable and Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly said that freedom of movement with the EU must come to an end. The deadlock in Parliament may remain stuck for a long period considering the EU has granted Britain an extension to the Article 50 process until 31st October 2019 leaving an uncertain period ahead for GBP vs EUR.

Economic data could prove important for Pound to Euro rates this week

UK mortgage approvals from the British Bankers Association are released on Friday and could give some indication of the state of the British housing market. It is normally the construction and housing sectors which are the first to collapse ahead of a downturn and so these numbers are eagerly awaited. Recent data has shown the London property market still falling amidst overall uncertainty over Brexit.

In the EU it has been heavily reported that the economy is not performing well with a recession in Italy and underlying problems in Germany stemming from industrial production and manufacturing. The economic outlook in the EU isn’t that strong either and so any progress with Brexit could see material gains for GBP against the EUR.

If you would like to discuss Pound / Euro rates in more detail or have a currency transfer to make please feel free to get in touch with me using the form below and I will respond personally:


Sterling exchange rates so far in 2013 – The Pound has lost value will this continue or are we due a market correction?

GBPEUR Exchange Rate: The Week Ahead May 16th

Pound performance since the start of the year:

GBP-USD -5.96%

GBP-EUR -6.12%

GBP-AUD -5.02%

GBP-NZD -6.68%

GBP-CAD -3.56%

GBP-CHF -4.33%

GBP-ZAR -1.11%

GBP-JPY 1.24%

Right so for those of you in the position where you need to sell Sterling and buy a foreign currency 2013 has not been a great year. The Pound has lost value against every major currency other than the Japanese Yen… The worst performing currency so far this year.

The Pound has recently hit a 16 month low against a basket of major currencies and even the BBC has recently reported that bets in the city on Sterling to weaken further are the highest they have been since last June, so what can we expect in the coming weeks and months?

It appears that the Bank of England and Government are more than happy to have a low Pound at present, this i’m assuming they are hoping will lead to a rise in the output of exports of goods and services which gives us an outside chance of avoiding the ‘triple dip’ recession’.

This, in my opinion may mean that we could see the Pound stay reasonably low in the near term, therefore if you are due to carry out a transaction involving buying foreign currency then for peace of mind if anything a forward contract may be a prudent approach.

A forward contract is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance needing just 10% of your funds available. If you are in the process of buying a property abroad then you never actually know how much the property will cost you until you have booked out your rate of exchange…. If you were buying in the U.K would you exchange contracts without actually knowing the final cost? That is exactly what you are doing by taking a gamble on the markets. and it is a lot of money to risk if things do go the wrong way for you.

We also have tools available like a limit order or stop loss contract, this is where you can decide on an exact level you would like  to buy at, and if the market hits it even  for a matter of seconds your currency is bought out automatically for you, on the flip side if your budget means you cannot get any worse than a particular exchange rate you can place a stop loss order, meaning if at any point the market drops to that level your currency is automatically bought for you.

Neither of these options cost money to place and they can be cancelled or amended at any time providing the order has not been filled, this is handy for the stop loss as you can chase the market up and keep moving up your bottom level if the market starts to move in your favour.

If you have a pending currency transfer to make and you want a currency expert on your side then please do feel free to contact me directly. You can email me on [email protected] or contact me on 01494 787 478. I look forward to hearing from you.

We regularly beat not only the banks but every other currency broker, the company we work for is FSA registered and authorised as a payments institute and we pride ourselves on offering not only the best rates of exchange but a fantastic service too.

Will UK Inflation help Sterling rise against the Euro and US Dollar this morning? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has made some small gains vs both the Euro and the US Dollar recently but is still being affected by what is happening with the Brexit talks.

The next obstacle will be when the House of Lords looks at the proposal and if they approve it we could see Sterling make some gains vs all major currencies. However, further delay is likely to lead to Sterling weakness.

As yet until we get some certainty and clarity on the situation Sterling will find it difficult to make any significant gains against its major currency pairs even though UK economic data has been relatively strong recently.

Later this morning we eagerly anticipate UK inflation data at 930am. The expectation is for 1.9% so anything higher could see the Pound make some gains as it could influence the Bank of England to look at interest rates again when they meet next month.

Clearly there is little to no appetite to change interest rates in the short term but if inflation continues to rise in the longer term then an interest rate change could come in the next few months.

UK unemployment is due out on Wednesday morning and with levels hitting 4.8% which is the lowest in years it highlights how well the UK economy is performing even when you consider the so called uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote last June.

However, what is clear is that the political landscape in the UK is having the greatest impact on Sterling exchange rates and I think in the short term Sterling will struggle to make significant gains vs the Euro and US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then feel free to contact me directly. Having helped thousands of clients since 2003 save money on their foreign exchange I look forward to  hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]

Alternatively call me directly on 01494787478 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

 

Volatile times ahead on GBP/USD exchange rates, will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

Pound to Dollar Rate Slips to One-Month Low

GBP/USD exchange rate: Close to best rates in 2018 selling US dollars for pounds

The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently trading on the interbank rate marginally above the 1.28 level, a not wholly unfamiliar level on the pair for regular monitors of the market in the last few months. 2018 has seen just over 16 cents movement between the high and the low on the pairing with current levels exceptionally close to the 1.2692 bottom seen in August.

There are now a series of very important political events and economic releases ahead which could have a direct influence on the GBP/USD exchange rate. I think it is going to be a very choppy few weeks ahead with some large unexpected swings as the currency markets digest these key pieces of information.

Will the US dollar get stronger against the pound?

The answer to this question is that yes, we might very well see the US dollar get stronger against the pound. The pound is currently in the firing line over Brexit uncertainties and the US economy is performing very well.

The US dollar lost significant ground earlier in the year when the GBP/USD exchange rate hit 1.43, this was mainly on the expectation the trade wars with China would prove very damaging for the US economy. The current view is that actually the trade wars are not as bad as everyone first thought, and in any event, the US economy is likely to weather the storm the ‘best’. The US economy (and therefore the US dollar), will come off the least worse from any global slowdown.

The US is also raising interest rates at a fast pace with a further hike expected in December. A higher interest rate generally makes a currency more attractive to hold and therefore increases its value.

GBP/USD Forecast: Will 1.30 be broken again?

Events begin to come very thick and fast with US Inflation data released today and then it is the end of the month where we can see month-end flows of currency creating unexpected opportunities and swings on the currency markets.

The 11th of December is a key date for the diary with the latest Brexit news and the Parliamentary vote in the House of Commons on Mrs May’s Brexit deal. It appears the most likely outcome is a vote against the UK Prime Minister, which could open up all sorts of problems for the Pound and GBP/USD exchange rates.

The end of this week also sees the G20 Summit where the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is supposed to meet with Trump and of course the trade concerns would be discussed. This is potentially a real market mover as the current tariffs of 10% might increase to 25% in January if no progress is made.

If the UK Parliament passes Mrs May’s plans and the market becomes fearful over the negative effects from the trade wars, GBP/USD exchange rates could well breach 1.30 again. However, the sentiment does seem to be more supportive of the US dollar lately so whilst possible I expect GBP/USD rates to spend more of December below 1.30 than above it.

When should I buy pounds with US dollars?

If you have US dollars to sell for sterling, you are very close to the best rates all year. Indeed with the US possibly raising interest rates and Brexit uncertainties continuing, it might get even better for you.

Of course, the currency markets are always unpredictable and whilst we can highlight the times and reasons when we might see volatility, we can never guarantee  the outcomes.

I believe there is real value in making plans in advance to ensure that you are not caught out by any sudden changes or twists in the market. This is more so the case when you have such unpredictable events like Brexit and Donald Trump to try and second guess.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing any possible GBP/USD transfer you might have to consider.

To discuss the factors and events that could affect GBP/USD exchange rates please use the form below to get in touch. I’ll be happy to respond personally and discuss your queries.


Sterling currency movements today – Pound forecast against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar and South African Rand GBP,EUR,USD,AUD,NZD,CAD and ZAR (Daniel Wright)

Pound Increases Against the US Dollar Despite Falling Inflation

Sterling Exchange Rates today and what to expect tomorrow

Sterling – Euro          

A busy day for GBP/EUR today as interest rate decisions were released from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, along with a press conference from head of the ECB Mario Draghi.

Neither rate decision really threw up any huge surprises however the press conference over the course of the afternoon did lead to quite a jittery market. Draghi once again reconfirmed his statement from last month that he feels the Euro is irreversible, and this coupled with the news that Spanish bonds were still remaining fairly steady ensured that the Euro is still holding firm against the Pound.

With little data out today for the U.K and indeed the Eurozone I would expect rates to remain fairly range bound of the course of today unless we hear of any progression with the almost certain pending Spanish bailout. If you look back at the week for both currencies then personally I feel the Euro has nudged it so might strengthen again slightly today.

Sterling – Dollar

Today at 13:30pm we have Non-Farm Payroll Data followed by the U.S unemployment rate. Non-farm payroll data can lead to a volatile end to the week as analyst’s projections can be quite a way out leading to a sharp and rapid market correction so if you have a transaction to carry out involving Dollars contact your account manager here this morning so that he can keep you full informed on market movements 0800 328 5884  With a little confidence once again installed into the market from the ECB yesterday the Dollar weakened away a little again. A strange week all in all for this paring as Australian data earlier in the week had ruffled investors feathers and pushed them back to the safer shores of the Dollar (with GBP/USD creeping below 1.61 again) but now it appears markets are ready to push down hard on the risk button again.

 

Sterling – Australian Dollar

The Aussie has indeed taken a bit of a bashing this week following a slightly surprising cut in interest rates on Tuesday and poor trade balance figures on Wednesday, The Australian economy is still performing fairly solidly however it does seem to appear the strong AUD is starting to weigh Australia down so personally I feel that we may see this rate improve a little further to round off the week.

 

 

Sterling – New Zealand Dollar

Comments made by the Finance minister in New Zealand about the effect of the strong Kiwi Dollar slowly damaging their economy have led to the NZD also having a troubled week. FX intervention has been ruled out so do not expect any major moves in the near term however personally I would not be surprised to see GBP/NZD continue the charge back towards 2.

 

 

 

Sterling – South African Rand

The Rand is on the ropes again after a wave of strikes across the country even outside of the mining industry, threatening a huge industrial crisis and absolutely knocking confidence in the Rand for six.

Personally I would not be surprised to see this escalate further and I feel the Rand may be in for a rocky ride for at least the next few months, there may be traces back as things settle temporarily but until this complicated issue is unwound the ZAR will find it hard to fight back.

 

Sterling – Canadian Dollar

Tomorrow we see the release of unemployment figures from Canada and the Pound had been edging towards the 1.60 mark this week.

The Canadian Dollar does rely heavily on Commodity prices however unless unemployment figures throw up a surprise I do not see a huge movement for this pairing which has been range bound for some time now.

Why is the pound dropping against the Euro? What has happened? Why is the rate for GBP/EUR so weak?

The most notable movement on the markets we saw last week  for Sterling followers was in my view the drop we saw for the Pound against the Euro.

GBP/EUR exchange rates came down from being up in the 1.23s to a 10 month low currently hovering just above the 1.20 level as I write this.

There are numerous reasons why we have seen this drop and quite frankly slightly surprising turnaround of late. Firstly the U.K Service and manufacturing sector data has been particularly poor so far this year, raising concerns of a triple dip recession in the U.K this year which you would imagine could knock the Pound considerably as the U.K continues to struggle to tread water in these murky trouble filled economic waters.

The NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) predicted that U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures were due to come out at -0.3% for the final quarter of 2012. The NIESR are generally quite near the mark and GDP is a measure of how much an economy grew or shrank during a particular period of time, so if they are indeed close again this time then we are back in negative territory and two consecutive quarters of negative growth would indeed officially put us in the triple dip recession.. I am sure the papers in the U.K would love that!

On the other side of things the Euro has been gaining strength against most major currencies. Head of the ECB (European Central Bank) Mario Draghi came out with some fairly positive comments at his last press conference and European bonds have sold well in recent auctions suggesting that confidence is pouring back in for investors in the Eurozone. Confidence can be a big market mover and somehow many people seem to have let the tremendous trouble still ahead for Europe, the issues in Spain and Greece have certainly not been resolved and I feel that sooner or later this will all come to a head and we will see the Eurozone crisis as front page news again… The only problem for those looking to buy Euros is that this still may be some time away!

If you are in the position where you need to buy or sell Pound or Euros then it is key to have an experienced and knowledgeable currency broker on your side… It can make a huge difference and when it comes to getting the best rate of exchange when you do decide to trade, it is important to have a broker with award winning exchange rates too.

I can offer you all of the above! If you find my information useful and would like to speak with me personally then I will always be more than happy to help, I deal with bank to bank transactions and not cash or speculation and I generally will transfer anything over £2000 up to multi million Pound transactions.

Feel free to email me directly with a short description of your requirements and with a good number to contact you on and time to call, you do not have to be U.K based to take advantage of this service. You can get in touch with me on  [email protected] I look forward to hearing from  you.

GDP Data for the U.K today is key – Purely a revision of quarter one however a large difference to predictions may lead to big swings

Good morning readers, an early start for Pound followers this morning, GDP figures for the U.K are released at 09:30am and as mentioned above, although they are not as important as the initial release, any major change to expectations could easily lead to high volatility.

Expectations are for no change to the first release and for GDP for quarter one to stay at 0.5% so a drop would be worrying and and increase great news.

Gross Domestic Product data generally means whether or not the economy grew or shrank over a period of time (usually measured on an either monthly, quarterly or yearly basis) and should an economy have two quarters of negative growth this leads to them officially being in a recession.

I do not believe the U.K will be heading back this way anytime soon, however there have been many surprises pop up over the past few years, personally it wouldn’t surprise me to see figures as expected if not slightly better this morning, and potentially some Sterling strength today.

If your business carries out regular transactions involving currency exchange, you are buying or selling a property abroad or have any other currency requirement be it large or small, fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me directly [email protected] and I will be more than happy to save you a substantial amount over using your bank.

Should I buy sterling now?

Brexit headlines continue to dictate the direction of the pound and this trend is set to continue for at least the next 14 months. The sentiment has certainly changed over the last 6 months as the UK and EU are now discussing the transition period and trade. Furthermore EU leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, have changed their tune slightly and admitted that it’s important the UK and EU remain close to each other once the UK departs. No surprises this has helped the pounds to value.

However its not all plain sailing for clients converting pounds into a foreign currency as seen yesterday when a Government report was leaked. The report suggests that the UK will be worse off when the UK departs the EU regardless of the final deal. Again this is no surprise, but it in a market that investors are looking for any forward direction in regards to such an important economic event, the pound lost value against of the major currencies.

For clients that are buying or selling the pound, I expect there to be opportunities in the upcoming months for both, however long term I am optimistic that we have started to see a recovery for the pound and this trend will continue. Therefore clients that are looking to purchase the pound should look at making arrangements sooner rather than later. The UK currency company I work for can repatriating a foreign currency back into sterling with no transfer costs at fantastic rates, therefore I would recommend getting in touch at your earliest convenience.

For the remainder of the week UK economic data releases are thin, however I would keep a close eye on the FED’s interest rate decision this evening and the US Non farm payroll numbers Friday afternoon as both have the potential to impact sterling exchange rates.

If you would like to save as much money as possible feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company [email protected]

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

 

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