Carney Pledges to stay in his role until Brexit negotiations are concluded.

Pound to US Dollar rates influenced by political uncertainty in the UK

Pound Forecast (Daniel Johnson)

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England (BOE) has stated he will continue in his role as Governor. He will now be on a six year contract which will take him over the period scheduled for Brexit negotiations. This should have caused Sterling to gather some strength, but it did little to bolster the pounds position despite many reporting to the contrary.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

On Thursday at 13.00 we will see the BOE interest rate decision and there is the possibility of a cut due to the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy following the Brexit vote. If a cut does occur expect Sterling to have a further fall.Carney does not seem overly concerned with the value of the pound seeing it as an opportunity to boost exports and the need for more domestic purchasing. Personally, I think the value of foreign goods will cause the UK general public to bear the brunt of the increase in foreign merchandise pricing. I expect a serious rise in inflation particularly in consumable goods.

A hard Brexit now seems inevitable following Francois Hollande’s comments that no negotiations will take place until Article 50 is triggered. Theresa May has stated that it will be invoked before the end of March and negotiations could be long and arduous. It may be be Q3 before we see a significant Sterling rally.

GBP/USD

With Trump advancing in the polls if you are a USD seller it may be time to bite the bullet. If he gains power expect the greenback to lose a lot of ground due to oddball policy ideas. Particularly curbing trade with China which could wipe trillions off both economies.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at [email protected]. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

 

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates expected for calmer Friday than last week (Joshua Privett)

GBPEUR Rejected by 1.17 Price Level Again

Buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange have entered Friday in a much more stable position compared to the sheer chaos caused in the early hours of last week with the flash crash in Asian markets.

That being said, the Pound is slightly down to begin the day against all major currencies, which is suggestive that speculation is still the dominant force governing the marketplace in this hypersensitive environment.

If you were not aware of the flash crash last week then your currency requirement must have only some up in the last few days. The Pound was battered by either a gigantic erroneous trade, or a severe miscalculation in automatic trading algorithms, in the early hours of Asian trading last Friday which caused a heavy deterioration on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD.

This was an artificially forced drop which the Bank of England are still investigating and markets have since recovered. However there was still a net loss, and such a crash was only possible due to the heightened anxiety surrounding the Pound since the announcement of a hard deadline from Theresa May for Article 50 by March 2017.

This anxiety has since been heightened by the likes of EU President Donald Tusk stating it’s either ‘Hard Brexit or no Brexit’ with both sides making markets nervous that no gentle exit will be able to be found.

To coincide with all of this, we are now entering another Friday and the abnormal trading patterns associated with this. 

Each Friday almost like clockwork since the Referendum, the Pound has had a difficult time in the afternoon heading into the weekend due to profit-taking in the market place undercutting its value.

Whilst this was eclipsed by the added mania last week, this is still a persistent issue for Euro and Dollar buyers, likely more so with the currently panicked financial world.

Each Friday trader’s at high street institutions have to allocate their funds into a stable currency whilst they are away from their desks for the weekend in order to protect their capital. For obvious reasons the Pound is very low on this list of stable currencies which are in high demand during this period. As such the Pound is sold off during this period and its value falls off a cliff.

I strongly recommend that if you have a GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirement in the short-term to contact me this morning before the volatile period begins in earnest this afternoon to discuss how to protect an upcoming transfer from any adverse movements, and receive a competitive quote for your transfer.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, as such a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. You can reach me directly by calling 01494 787 478 and asking the reception team for Joshua.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge in the time-frame you have to make your transfer in order to maximise your sterling return. As my argument above suggests, if I was in your position I would not be looking to move straight away.

You can also contact me via email on [email protected] or fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able to: [contact-form to=’[email protected]’ subject=’PSF – 14/10′][contact-field label=’Name’ type=’name’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Email’ type=’email’ required=’1’/][contact-field label=’Contact number’ type=’text’/][contact-field label=’Desired Currency’ type=’text’ required=’1’/][/contact-form]

 

 

Sterling losses across the board this morning

The pound has endured a poor start to trading this morning taking losses vs. the Euro, Aussie Dollar, Kiwi Dollar and Swedish Kroner to name just four.

This movement comes despite Public Sector Net Borrowing figures coming in better than expected this morning.  It appears that the markets are focusing on other factors such as the ‘risky nature’ of the pound at present.   Stock markets dropped yesterday on concerns over a Greek debt restructuring and this has moved investors away from risky assets like the pound and into safe have currencies like the US Dollar.  Couple with this potential cost to the UK economy of the volcanic ash cloud coming over from Iceland, and the recent spike in the value of the pound could well be reversed over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer and would like to see what specific forecasts are for your currency pair, fill in the enquiry form on the right to discuss your options with an experienced currency specialist.

Revised UK GDP at 09:30 likely to be the driving force behind the pounds moves today (Mike Vaughan)

Pound to US Dollar rates influenced by political uncertainty in the UK

Anyone looking at GBP/EUR should watch out for revised UK GDP data at 09:30 BST. With a recent good run of data from the UK this is forecast to be positive and should lend support to the pound, of course if the figures are not as strong as forecast then the pound is likely to de-value. Should you be looking at GBP/EUR short term then you may wish to look at your position before 09:30.

Following the FED minutes on Wednesday EUR/USD has remained fairly flat at 1.335. As mentioned the minutes did little to indicate when the FED will look at tapering but did suggest some members favoured swift action. For me it is something that is likely to occur sooner rather than later and I would expect this to push EUR/USD towards 1.30 in the coming weeks. I would also expect this to have an impact on GBP/USD and wouldalso expect a shift towards the 1.50 – for me anyone buying USD should consider the prices available now.

Looking at the loonie (GBP/CAD) the CAD has been weakening as the prospect of the FED tapering QE weighs in the riskier currencies. This has also hindered the AUD,NZD and ZAR creating some good buy opportunities. For the CAD these are the best levels we have seen since February 2010 and represents a strong buy opportunity in my opinion. The CAD historically, and certainly over the past few years, has been a relatively stable currency and having shifted in excess of 8 cents in three weeks this is to me represents an opportunity.

Should you wish to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you are looking to arrange and would like to know how the currency service we provide operates then please get in touch. We are simply here to help our clients maximise their exchange and better prices offered by the high street banks and other financial institutions. To find out how we can help you with your currency exchange please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at [email protected]

 

High courts give sterling a boost & US Presidential Election (Dayle Littlejohn

With sterling falling month on month due to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, this Thursday’s high court decision has thrown a spanner in the works for UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

The Prime Minister had stated that the UK would trigger Article50 in March, however the High Court has ruled that she (Parliament) does not have the power to invoke Article50 on her own and that all of the MPs in Parliament will have to vote before Article50 is triggered.

Since the decision Theresa May has said that Parliament will be challenging the High court decision in the Supreme Court in December and that she plans to stick to her timescales given last week. For people buying a foreign currency, the pound has gained momentum towards the end of the week however I believe the boost from this story will be short lived as Article50 will be triggered at some point.

This week the major economic event that will impact sterling exchange rates is the Presidential Election in the US. Republican candidate Donald Trump has narrowed the polls and appears to be neck and neck with Democrat Hilary Clinton.  Donald Trump is seen as a risk to the US economy due to wanting to change lots of different policies, trade being one to note.

Speculators will be looking to protect their positions this week, whilst making profit, therefore expect major swings with exchange rates this week.

As I have said above the gains we have seen from the High court ruling could be short lived therefore for people buying a foreign currency taking advantage of the spike maybe wise. However depending on the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the US election could swing rates in your favour this week or exchange rates could fall.

If you are looking for a currency provider who can keep you up to date with exchange rate movement whilst being able to offer excellent exchange rates, feel free to email me Dayle Littlejohn [email protected] with the currency pair you are trading, the reason for your transfer and the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast.

The type of clients I deal with on a day to day basis are high net individuals, property buyers/ sellers and business owners. In addition if you are already using a brokerage feel free to email me and we can compare exchange rates to make sure you are receiving the best rates possible [email protected].

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

GBPEUR this week – GBP vrs EURO – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR Rejected by 1.17 Price Level Again

Sterling rates have remained flat on Monday which is one of the quietest days of the week. Rates did pick up over the weekend however following yet more commentary from the head of the European Central bank Mario Draghi with regards to inflation.  As we have mentioned on a number of blogs the euro is actually at a near multi year high against the dollar which is hampering exports and their inflation figures are worryingly low.  De-inflation is the risk so many people expect the central bank to either introduce new policy, lower interest rates or introduce more QE in an effort to tackle this.  So this commentary over the weekend made this more likely and therefore weakens the euro.

Wednesday still remains the key day this week. This is when we have economic data due from both banks either side of the channel. The UK release unemployment figures which are expected to have fallen down towards the 7% target the central bank had once hinted would result in the interest rate climb. Then the Europeans release key inflation figures, inflation being key at the moment as already mentioned.  This points towards sterling strength being projected for Wednesday probably creating the best day to buy your euros this week.  Sellers are however a little more wary.

For a full breakdown of the times of these releases and therefore when to potentially trade get in contact. My name is Steve Eakins and I can be contacted directly through [email protected] or call me on 0044 (0)1494 787 478

Interest Rate Decision causes Sterling to Fall (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Euro Exchange Rate: Hammond Criticizes ‘Extravagant’ Spending

Change in MPC vote calls a drop in GBP/EUR

Inflation is a major concern for the UK economy at present. It reached 2.9% recently and there had been rumoured the Bank of England would raise rates if inflation continued to rise. The latest data release showed a fall to 2.6% which many interpreted would mean a rate hike would be less likely.

This was confirmed today when the results of the Monetary Policy Commitee’s (MPC) vote was released. There was no change in rates which comes as no surprise, but the votes did come in with a different outcome to the last vote. A member of the MPC, Kristin Forbes recently left her a position and she was amoung the three members to vote in favour of a hike at the last Interest rate decision. She has been replaced by Silvan Tenreyo.

Tenreyo went against a hike and the vote came in at 6-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold. The pound suffered against the majority of major currencies as a result. Things are not looking good for the pound and I think there is potential for further weakness. In order for Sterling to make a significant gains we need a stable government in place. Fifteen conservative MPs recently stated a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and this is what we are witnessing at present. We also need a clear plan for Brexit as it looks as though the have your cake and eat it strategy is no longer viable. Compromises will have to be made on the freedom of movement of people in order for the UK to have access to free trade. If the stance for exit is made clear Sterling may have the opportunity to rally.

During such difficult times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at [email protected]

Looks like we may have an announcement on the situation over in America shortly…..

I hear that we are due to hear something at 17:00pm GMT from the States so please keep your eyes peeled on the markets as events unfold, we certainly may be looking at a volatile end to the trading day!

GBP/USD rates have already dropped a little over the past hour or so but as always with the currency markets you just don’t know for sure what it may bring so I will do my best to keep you all posted.

Below is a chart for GBP/USD (Candlestick) and EUR/USD (line) over the past week… Funny how the two pairs have an extremely similar pattern.

USD

Exchange Rate Forecast – Incredible Trading Levels! ( Andrew Bromley )

The Pound is trading at incredibly high levels against both the Euro and US Dollar. The levels are a surprise as realistically the UK General Election in just under two weeks should be weakening Sterling. In all previous elections, including referendums, the Pound has lost on average 3% against other major currencies. I’m surprised therefore that in what will be an incredibly open ballot and with a strong chance of a hung-parliament, that optimistic levels are being tested.

Against the Euro we’ve recently seen 1.40 and above, only seen once prior in 8 years! This is a direct consequence of primarily the uncertainty in Greece, but also on the back of positive sentiment from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Two of the nine members of the ‘MPC’ indicated that they were starting to consider an interest rate hike, a glimmer of hope taken advantage of buy those buying currency with the Pound.

In the US the Dollar strength seems to have affected the progress towards a rate hike. The Federal Reserve had previously indicated that the Interest Rate hike will be based on strong economic data. Unfortunately incredibly low US Non Farm Payroll data (the lowest increase in jobs since 2013), poor retail sales figures and disappointing Durable Goods orders indicate that the US will not be ready for the option of a hike in June. Therefore the next window for the hike would be September. The FOMC releases a statement prior to their meeting on Thursday so may be worth having your position sorted prior…

If you do have an exchange requirement please feel free to get in touch. Markets and trading ledgers are incredibly busy as people look to eliminate the risk of markets plunging pre-election. Please feel free to get in touch should you have an exchange requirement – [email protected] – 01494 787 478 Please quote this blog!

Andrew Bromley

Will The Pound Bounce Back?

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBPUSD Continues Upward Trend but for How Long?

The pound has dropped against most majors this week so many clients are asking will it bounce back?  In my view this all depends on which currency pair you are looking at as whilst there are some factors affecting sterling directly, much of the movement can be attributed to factors affecting other currencies, so to this end it is worth considering them separately.

Sterling Overview

There has actually been very little negative data out to affect the pound of late although the Trade Balance this morning was not particularly pretty viewing.  Some of the negative sentiment surrounds MPC Member Charles Bean’s comments about the value of the pound; “Any further appreciation of sterling, which has risen almost 10% in  trade-weighted terms since March, would not be particularly helpful in terms of  facilitating a rebalancing towards net exports.” Probably just an attempt to talk down the value of the pound rather than a sign the BofE wont be raising rates in 2015, so I suspect as long as UK economic data improves, the pound will be realatively well supported to avoid significant further losses.  The recent flooding and resulting damage may have damaged the economy in the short term, but the resulting clear up and construction effort could actually provide a big boost to the building trade and provide an unintentional “Plan B” of sorts.

GBP USD

The Dollar still remains very weak as the pace of the recovery in the US still remains weak so the issue of tapering is still not being fully resolved by a cautious Fed.  The debt ceiling and political issues are also hampering any clear forecasts but I still feel that once momentum in the US picks up and we get closer to seeing potential interest rate rises, then I suspect the Dollar will make some small headway against the pound.  I think the Dollar will fare much better this year against the Euro but that is another story. If you have a GBP USD transfer and would like assistance then feel free to email me at [email protected] and I would be happy to help, or call me on 01494 787 478.

GBP EUR

The Euro has made huge gains against the pound since last Thursday after Mario Draghi and the ECB didn’t do anything regarding interest rates (or any other unusual measures), citing the economic situation was gradually improving.  The move took speculators by surprise seeing a surge in confidence for the single currency shooting up 2% against sterling since Thursday.  However, whilst inflation may have improved slightly in Europe, it still remains very low, and both growth and unemployment are hugely worrying factors – unemployment rates in Greece rose this week to 27.5%!  I feel the pace is too slow and that the ECB may have their hand forced into further action later in the year, and even if it isn’t, the prospect of interest rate rises in Europe still look many years away so it may not be long before investors move away from the Euro looking for better returns.  With the UK forecast to raise rate in 2015 and the US not far behind, the Euro could soon become a little isolated.  To this end I see current exchange rates as a great time to sell Euros, before it weakens off again in the coming months.  If you are buying or selling property in Europe then timing your exchange rate could be the key to getting the best deal on currency transfers so feel free to email Colm at [email protected] if you would like assistance.  If you would prefer to call I am available on 01494 787 478.

GBP NZD

As forecast the RBNZ raised interest rates this week and the Kiwi strengthened a touch further as a result.  I suspect this move will keep the NZD looking pretty robust with investors showing increased risk appetite.  To this end I don’t see the pound making much headway against the Kiwi in the short term barring a collapse in Asian Pacific confidence or some form of intervention by the RBNZ should the Kiwi strengthen too much (unlikely any time soon if they have just hiked in my view).

GBP AUD

Whilst many people have forecast a drop for AUD I think further falls for the Aussie are unlikely and have been saying this for some time.  Jobs figures the other day showed an improvement, the RBA have been very clear that no more imminet action is likely, plus the pound has gained so rapidly in value versus the Aussie last year that at some point it was always going to peak.  Global confidence seems to be gradually returning which tends to help the higher yield currencies despite the on-going issue of US tapering, and slight wobbles in China.  Rather than holding out for huge gains, I would assess how soon I need the money.  I you can afford to wait long term then it may be worth holding off a while and targeting somewhere 1.87+ but in the next few months I would think anything over 1.85 is a good buy rather than being too greedy.  If you are selling Aussie Dollars, then a positive spike may not be out the question over the next few weeks with 1.82 my guide.  Moving Down Under?  Would you like help with the currency?  Email Colm at [email protected] or call me on 01494 787 478

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