Sterling exchange rates fall against all majors

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21st October 2010

The pound is down across the board this morning following yesterday’s austerity measures and Bank of England minutes.

The increased possibility of Quantitative easing appears to be the main driver for this fall at present. The spending review hasn’t really given us a great deal of detail as the chancellor stated that details of the cuts will be released over the coming days. These will be eagerly anticipated as we see where the estimated half a million job losses will be.

An overview of the key cuts and announcements is below:

Structural deficit to be eliminated by 2015
Approximately 490,000 public sector jobs likely to be lost
Average 19% four-year cut in departmental budgets
£7bn in additional welfare budget cuts
Police funding cut by 4% a year
Retirement age to rise from 65 to 66 by 2020
English schools budget protected
£2bn extra for social care
NHS budget in England to rise every year until 2015
Regulated rail fares to rise 3% above inflation
Bank levy to be made permanent

Those who oppose such deep cuts so soon after the UK has recovered from recession, beleive the cuts will send the economy back into recession. At present it’s more opinion than anything else, which makes it difficult to assess how the pound will fare in the future. Ultimately the reduction in spending should help the economy, but if we do head back into recession the timescales will be much further into the future.

Taking a slightly more positive viewpoint, if the unemployment casued by the austerity measures is absorbed by the private sector the economy may not suffer as much as some predict. This could result in slow but sustained eoconomic growth and could see the pound making gains in the medium term against most major currencies.

Ultimately the future exchange rate movement for sterling is very uncertain at present, even more so than normal. I think overal we are likely to see sterling weakness in the next 1-3 months, but I do anticipate some volatility as I have a feeling the market will be reacticing excessively to data releases. That is to say I think we will see overreactions. Good news will cause the pound to gain beyond appropriate levels where as bad news will casue losses of the same nature.

If you have an upcoming requirement to buy or sell sterling, or any other currency, fill in the form on the right to discuss your requirements with a currency expert.

Ahead of spending cuts later today Pound Sterling makes minor losses against most major currencies – Pound Sterling against Euro, Dollar and all major currencies

By

Daniel Wright

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20th October 2010

The Bank of England released their minutes from the previous interest rate decision’s meeting and it has led to minor losses for the Pound in morning trading.

Effectively it confirmed what I believe most traders and investors already knew (that further QE was edging closer to being put in place). More members of the MPC had voted in favour of extending the programme and as many of you will know the mere mention of introducing further QE does tend to lead to weakness for the Pound.

I still beleive that later in the day will be the big market mover with the spending cuts being announced… they will no doubt prove there are still many jobs to be lost in the U.K and more than likely provoke a pretty bad reaction as not everyone can be pleased… watch this space for how they are taken by the markets I will ensure to get back to you with a mid afternoon update!

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Federal Reserve give the go ahead on QE – USD Weakness – Pound generally makes losses against the majority of majors

By

Daniel Wright

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13th October 2010

Last night the U.S Federal Reserve (American version of the Bank of England) said full steam ahead for QE in their minutes released at 19:15pm which as regular readers will know led to minor losses for the Dollar against the vast majority of currencies.

Earlier on in the day the Pound lost against most major currencies, due to BOE member David Miles speaking in Dublin – He mentioned that the BOE had to balance the need to bring down inflation against tightening policy too soon mentioning that interest rates would stay on hold for some time yet the input of more QE was possible, this in turn sent the Pound tumbling against pretty much every major currency.

Once again the Pound has taken a few steps forward yet taken quite a few back shortly after and it really does heighten the importance of catching the exchange rate at the right time, when the Pound rose above 1.20 against the Euro a lot of my clients decided to hold out even though 1.20 was a level they had originally set as a rate they would be really happy with to purchase their property or goods from overseas…. they got greedy and now unfortunately have ended up paying a lot more than they would have liked to now their completion date has arrived.

I cannot advise yet I can always give my personal opinion based on market knowledge and it is always easy to get caught up in a vicious circle should rates be shifting against you or moving in your favour, personally I don’t like to gamble and holding out over a period of time is exactly the same as walking down to the betting shop and placing £5000 on a horse…. would you do that???

Should you be buying a property why not book out your rate on a forward contract the second you agree a price and sign documents, you then know that it will cost excactly what you originally agreed to pay for it… get in touch with me by filling in the form on the right for more details on how these work, for a small deposit you can book a rate for anything up to two years in advance…

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling faces quiet day on the market – exchange rate update and forecast for the week ahead

By

Daniel Wright

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11th October 2010

The Pound faces a fairly quiet day on the markets today as there is little data due out for the U.K and generally accross the globe.

Those with an upcoming requirement may wish to be aware that over night sees the release of BRC Retail Sales Data at 00:01am which could potentially see large Sterling movement and market volatitity overnight, leading to either a nice surprise or nasty shock whilst eating your cornflakes.

We also see some inflationary and trade balance data out in the morning at 09:30am which will once again be important for the U.K and indeed the Pound.

Personally unless any surprises pop up I feel this week will be better for the Pound and we could see some gains (albeit minor) against the vast majority of major currencies.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Future Rate Forecast and update from data today – Sterling makes gains against EUR USD CAD CHF ZAR and many more following QE on hold and high manufacturing

By

Daniel Wright

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7th October 2010

Just a quick update for regular readers as the phones are going crazy in the office today, the BOE (Bank of England) decided to hold fire on further QE (Quantitative Easing) for the month of October which coupled with great manufacturing data coming out for the U.K this morning has led to Sterling strength.

The Pound has at the time of writing this post just slipped back below the 1.60 mark against the USD and personally I think following this news could well push up and over it, and stay over it in the near future, especially if Non Farm Payrolls data at 13:30pm tomorrow brings out a worse than expected figure for the States.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling faces important day report and forecast for the Pound, Euro, Dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar

By

Daniel Wright

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7th October 2010

Media Quote: Daniel Wright ( Poundsterlingforecast.com )

“Further QE can only be seen as bad news for the U.K economy and indeed the Pound – The BOE are clearly in two minds between them which can only take away any confidence investors had in Sterling”

The Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision at 12:00pm today. Although I don’t feel we will see any change to interest rates, not only today but for quite some time, the cloud of QE (quantitative Easing) is once again hanging over the head of the Pound as those of you that had transactions in 2009 will remember from last year.

The mere mention of QE generally led to Sterling weakness and although I feel that this would be mainly priced into the market, I would not be surprised to see Sterling fall even lower should further QE be put into place, potentially slipping back into the 1.12s against the Euro and 1.57s against the Dollar.

On the other hand, those with a currency transfer involving bringing funds back into Pounds may wish to consider your options as should we see the BOE announce that QE will continue to be kept on hold for the time being then a great selling opportunity may be missed.

At 13:30pm today we will see U.S Jobless claims released which is a key indication to employment data in the States. This is generally quite a market mover and is followed up tomorrow by U.S Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm.

Non Farm Payroll can move the markets more than an interest rate decision. This is due to the fact that they predict the result in advance, and have been known to be quite a way out

The currency markets move on rumour as well as fact so the results can rapidly readjust the markets, and with rates moving every two seconds it is imperative you let your account manager here know exactly what you are looking to do, so that they can keep you informed of any market movements in your favour or against you.

Japanese Devaluing

Traders are still on red alert for the second phase of the Japanese Government devaluing their currency due the pure high value of the Yen seriously affecting their economy. Should you have business requirements involving the Yen get in touch today, so should we see a sharp increase in rates arise overnight we can get in touch and let you know before it is too late to take advantage of it.

Australian Unemployment – Breaking News

Those with upcoming Australian Dollar interests will be keen to know that unemployment data for Australia came out overnight and it actually came out much better than expected (by nearly double) leading to yet more Australian Dollar strength overnight. Australia appear to have managed to completely avoid the recession and the AUD once again appears to be going from strength to strength, those holding on for better exchange rates may wish to seriously consider their options!

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Two sides of the coin for the pound

By

Daniel Wright

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6th October 2010

One side of the coin Sterling exchange rates has had a dire day against most of the majors. Against the Euro the pound has been trading at its lowest level for around 4 months. At 16:52 we were at a low of 1.1420.

With such a pessimistic outlook for the UK, economists are stating that it is more and more likely that the MPC will introduce QE2 for the UK. As mentioned previously on this site that there is a chance that sterling exchange rates could suffer if there are decisions to extend the programme. Tomorrow is certainly going to be a very interesting and volatile day for the pound.

On the other side of the coin sterling exchange rates are at a two month high against the US Dollar with levels hitting a high of 1.5937 today. The greenback seems to be in a world of trouble itself. With fears of a double dip recession there has been lots of talk of QE being extended there too. On the back of this the US Dollar has also weakened to its lowest level against the Euro for Four months.

My predictions are that the pound could fall down by 3-4% if QE does get introduced in the UK and expect a similar impact if the US follow suit.

Further Sterling weakness against most major currencies in early morning trading

By

Daniel Wright

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6th October 2010

Investors still appear to be concerned about the U.K and indeed the Pound as the announcement of spending cuts approaches rapidly along with the uncertainty over whether or not we will once again see QE from the Bank of England.

Last year every time QE (Quantitative Easing) was merely mentioned, let alone put into place the Pound generally lost value rapidly, as printing more money essentially means there are more Pounds available which means Sterling is effectively worth less.

I highly doubt we will now see a change in interest rates until quite a way into next year, so the biggest potential leader to Pound strength (an interest rate hike) appears to have now been put on hold – many major analysts had been expecting a hike before the end of 2010 – unfortunately that is now highly doubtful.

We also see a flurry of impotant U.S unemployment data over the next few days so expect some volatility against the U.S Dollar – especially on Friday as Non Farm Payroll Data is released at lunchtime and this can be a major market mover.

If you are worries about rate movements then feel free to contact me directly, I work for one of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the country and we specialise in geting you better rates than the high street banks, whilst offering a great personalised service to make the whole process smooth and simple.

I’m afraid we do not deal with travel money and we are an execution only service so we will only but currency for a client as and when they request it, asking for no money up front however settlement within two working days, and all of our clients money are kept in seperate client transaction accounts for your peace of mind.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Sterling makes a good start to the week ahead of crucial BOE Interest rate decision on Thursday

By

Daniel Wright

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4th October 2010

The Pound has gained against the majority of major currencies today, making headway of 0.8% against the Euro, 0.18% against the U.S Dollar and over 0.70% against both the Australian and New Zealand Dollar close to the end of trading today.

This is all ahead of a crucial interest rate decision due to come out on Thursday at Midday where we will surely see further comments regarding potential Quantitative Easing in the U.K – The mere mention of this may lead to rapid Sterling losses unless obviously they mention they have no further plans to do any of course!

On another note a well known broker has unfortunately gone into administration today, they offered rates higher than the interbank however you had to settle the full amount with them immediately for your currency to be delivered at a later date, we never could work out how they could possibly manage to buy above the market and despite many attempts to find out drew a blank.

I have come accross clients shopping with this company, even though they are mainly travel money they also did bank to bank as well, and have always said if something seems too good to be true then it generally is, and once again that has sadly been proven as thousands of people will now face a major fight to get their money back.

Should you wish to achieve great exchange rates for any upcoming transaction you need to make be it buying or selling Pounds, Euros, Dollars or any other major currency (i’m afraid we only deal in bank to bank and not cash) please feel free to fill in the contact form on the right hand side of this page and I will get straight in touch.

Sterling weakness again today – GBP drops further against EUR USD AUD CAD ZAR CHF

By

Daniel Wright

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30th September 2010

GBP EUR Exchange Rate: Weekly Review July 16

The Pound has once again lost ground against the majority of major currencies in trading today, which once again is terrible news for those seeking to make a money transfer from Sterling to another currency in the near future, however great news for those looking to bring money back.

How long this trend will continue is a hard one to guess, as earlier comments from MPC member Posen in the week still appear to be taking their toll on the value of the Pound and personally I believe the value of Sterling will weigh heavily on whether or not we see further comments from the Bank of England in the coming days and weeks.

I also feel that the many problems seemingly swept under the carpet in the Euro Zone may come back to light as they have are effectively a large boil that continues to be covered up and eventually one day they will come back and burst.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Predictions

Sterling exchange rates fall against all majors

Ahead of spending cuts later today Pound Sterling makes minor losses against most major currencies – Pound Sterling against Euro, Dollar and all major currencies

Federal Reserve give the go ahead on QE – USD Weakness – Pound generally makes losses against the majority of majors

Sterling faces quiet day on the market – exchange rate update and forecast for the week ahead

Future Rate Forecast and update from data today – Sterling makes gains against EUR USD CAD CHF ZAR and many more following QE on hold and high manufacturing

Sterling faces important day report and forecast for the Pound, Euro, Dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar

Two sides of the coin for the pound

Further Sterling weakness against most major currencies in early morning trading

Sterling makes a good start to the week ahead of crucial BOE Interest rate decision on Thursday

Sterling weakness again today – GBP drops further against EUR USD AUD CAD ZAR CHF

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